The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake: Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the regional economic impacts of electricity lifeline disruptions caused by a catastrophic earthquake. The methodology is based on specially designed input-output and linear programming models. A simulation of a major earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone near Memphis, Tennessee, indicates the potential production loss over the recovery period could amount to as much as 7 percent of gross regional product. Reallocation of scarce electricity across sectors could reduce the impacts substantially. Additionally, an improved restoration pattern of electricity transmission substations across subareas could reduce losses even more.     

社区人文社会环境对汶川地震移民社会适应的影响——以北川县为例

对汶川地震移民来说,社区人文社会环境直接影响他们的社会适应状况。本文基于调研数据,构建模型来探究社区人文社会环境对移民社会适应的影响。研究表明：社区人文社会环境下的16个单一指标,仅"社区治安"和"干群关系评价"对移民的社会适应状况有显著影响;但16个单一指标集成的4个综合指标-"配套设施"、"邻里关系"、"干群关系"和"观念习俗",却均对地震移民的社会适应状况影响显著,并且除"观念习俗"与移民的社会适应程度呈弱显著的负相关关系外,其他3个综合指标与移民的社会适应程度都呈强显著的正相关关系。     

经济转型期陕北公路交通与经济发展的关联分析

结合陕北公路交通与经济发展的实际,应用1998-2007年度的数据,运用主成分析、相关性、回归模型、弹性分析等方法,对经济转型期陕北公路交通与经济发展效率进行了综合分析评价。结果发现,陕北公路交通与经济发展之间相关度较高,两者之间的最优回归方程可表示为Logistic曲线函数,交通发展指数对经济发展指数的平均弹性系数大体在0.42-0.58之间波动。在综合经济发展过程中,原来较为落后地区的公路交通基础设施与经济发展会逐步趋向协调;公路交通基础设施的改善是经济发展不可缺少的条件之一,但其边际效益会逐渐减小。最后,建议在当前阶段,为实现陕北经济的顺利转型和健康发展,应建设形成多种运输方式协调发展的综合交通运输体系。     

Safety vs. Economy in Performance-Based Design of Buildings: Inevitable Compromise or False Dilemma?

The objective of the present paper is to investigate the influence of the design objective on the total cost of buildings. A series of reinforced concrete buildings are designed for various design objectives, and the construction cost is calculated. Additionally, the earthquake losses for three different earthquake scenarios are estimated. The total cost of the buildings is calculated as the sum of the construction cost plus the earthquake losses. The whole investigation demonstrates that designing for elastic response against the design earthquake is both the safest and the most economical in long-term option in the case of strong seismic excitations.     

Commuting to the Istanbul Historical Core: The Case of Industrial Employees

The aim of this paper is firstly, to determine the types of manufacturing activities which are at present active in the Istanbul Historical Core and secondly, to establish the daily commuting pattern of industrial employment. With this information to hand, it is then possible to assess the impact of the transportation pattern on the historical core and the metropolitan area as a whole. The results show that industrial employees commuting to work in the historical core face more difficulties, by way of duration-distance-change, than the average value observed in the metropolitan area. Moving manufacturing activities away from the historical core will not only decrease the difficulties faced by industrial employees in this area, but will also relieve this 2400 year old area from the burden of traffic congestion, environmental and noise pollution, and create usable building capacity .     

PANEL ON THE SOVIET UNION IN THE YEAR 2000

A panel of geographers debates possible future developments in the Soviet Union in regional and environmental policy, water resource management, agriculture, industry, energy, population, urban growth and planning, transportation, and foreign trade. The present emphasis on modernization of existing plant capacity in cities of the western, more heavily settled regions of the USSR seems destined to continue, although it will be constrained by a growing shortage of industrial labor, declining terms of trade and resource oversupply in increasingly competitive export markets, and the continued resistance of Central Asian populations to urbanization and industrial employment.     

THE IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ON PROPERTY VALUES: A HIGHER-ORDER SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS APPROACH

ABSTRACT.  We evaluate the impacts of enhanced transportation systems on property values for U.S. manufacturing firms, allowing for higher-order spatial error correlation. We use a state-level model of production cost and input demand that recognizes the productive contribution of public transportation infrastructure stocks. Our findings include significant impacts on property shadow values and input composition from both public highway and airport investment. We also find that these effects have a spatial dimension that depends on the proximity of the transport system; at least one and as many as three spatial error lags are significant in our estimating equations. Further, recognizing production growth from transportation system improvements augments the associated incentives for private capital investment.     

Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions*

Abstract. Recent natural and manmade disasters have had significant regional economic impacts. These effects have been muted, however, by the resilience of individual businesses and of regional markets, which refers to the inherent ability and adaptive responses that enable firms and regions to avoid potential losses. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis is a promising approach to disaster impact analysis because it is able to model the behavioral response to input shortages and changing market conditions. However, without further refinement, CGE models, as well as nearly all other economic models, reflect only “business‐as‐usual” conditions, when they are based on historical data. This paper advances the CGE analysis of major supply disruptions of critical inputs by: specifying operational definitions of individual business and regional macroeconomic resilience, linking production function parameters to various types of producer adaptations in emergencies, developing algorithms for recalibrating production functions to empirical or simulation data, and decomposing partial and general equilibrium responses. We illustrate some of these contributions in a case study of the sectoral and regional economic impacts of a disruption to the Portland Metropolitan Water System in the aftermath of a major earthquake.     

Can Earthquake Loss Models be Validated Using Field Observations?

The occurrence of a damaging earthquake provides an opportunity to compare observed and estimated damage, provided that detailed observations of the earthquake effects are made in the field. A question that arises is whether such comparisons can provide the basis for validation of an earthquake loss model. In order to explore this issue, a case study loss model for the northern Marmara region has been set up and the losses have been calculated for various ground-motion fields that arise when different assumptions are made about the ground-motion variability. In particular, the influence of removing the inter-event variability for a scenario earthquake and modeling spatial correlation among ground motions is studied. Further analyses are conducted assuming that a number of accelerograms are available within the region and that knowledge of spatial correlations among ground motions can therefore be used to better predict the motions at sites in the vicinity of the recording stations. The results demonstrate that unless one has a dense network of accelerographs (commensurate with the geographical resolution of exposure), then the variability in the losses cannot be sufficiently reduced to allow validation of the loss model.     

Seismic Hazards and Water Supply Performance

This article describes seismic hazards, including fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, and site amplification, using Los Angeles as a case study. Water supply simulation results are presented for a 7.8 M_W earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. Severe water losses are shown after 24 h, with nearly 2,700 locations of pipeline damage and a 66% decrease in normal water service. The water supply system was modeled with and without reservoirs that have been removed from service to meet water quality standards. The results show that opening the disconnected reservoirs immediately after a serious earthquake is an effective strategy for emergency response.     

电石的公路运输事故特征与紧急救援预案

随着我国化学工业和公路建设的发展,电石在公路运输中引起的交通事故频繁发生,造成了严重的经济损失和不良的社会影响。建立事故紧急救援预案,提高电石运输事故的救援水平,改善事故的救援状况,对于提高电石运输安全性,减少经济损失具有十分重要的意义。     

Kobe and Northridge Two earthquakes compared

Abstract

The earthquakes striking Northridge, California in 1994 and Kobe, Japan just a year later highlighted the vulnerability of modern cities to natural hazards. The Northridge quake affected a suburban area, consisting of a mixture of residential and commercial districts but having no industrial plants of any great size. In Kobe, by contrast, the entire urban area, having a high concentration of population and buildings in the city centre, major industrial plants, and a large port area, was hit. This fact, and the higher price levels in Japan, explain why the extent of the losses in Kobe was significantly higher. The Kobe tremor demonstrated that much more attention must be paid in future to reinforcing important older buildings or buildings that are especially at risk. The fact that many modern high rise buildings survived intact showed that it is possible to design earthquake resistant structures, although the safety of steel frame structures, hitherto thought to be good, is now more questionable. Theories predicting that a similar event in a conurbation such as San Francisco or Tokyo–Yokohama could affect the entire world economy must now be viewed as having greater credibility.     

高速铁路的社会经济影响与空间效应的研究进展——基于国际SCI和SSCI期刊论文的分析

高速铁路正在重塑区域空间格局,并对社会经济发展产生深刻影响。本文以检索获得的347篇高速铁路社会经济影响与空间效应研究相关的国际SCI和SSCI期刊论文为研究对象,从文献来源、发文量年际变化、作者和机构、载文期刊、研究主题等方面对全球高速铁路社会经济效益研究的趋势和特征进行了系统分析;并从高速铁路的空间效益、经济影响以及社会影响等三个方面对研究内容和主题开展了系统综述;最后从研究趋势和研究内容等方面归纳了主要结论,提出未来研究的趋势与方向。结果表明,在高速铁路快速发展推动下,全球高速铁路效应研究呈现快速增长的态势,并在高速铁路的空间效应、社会经济效应等方面取得了较为丰硕的成果。中国大陆学者在高速铁路效应研究上异军突起,成为近年来国际发表论文最多的国家,但在研究深度和广度以及研究成果影响力上与西班牙等欧美国家仍有较大的差距。     

A framework for path-dependent industrial land transition analysis using vector data

Industrial land is under transition globally. Insights into this transition are important to plan a sustainable future. Since industrial land follows parcel shapes and the transition process requires multi-year data to observe the impacts of such changes, multi-year vector data should be used to analyse industrial land transition. This paper presents a framework to analyse path-dependent regional industrial land transition processes using vector data. A step by step instruction is presented. In the analysis, the changed percentages of land use in the surroundings of appeared or disappeared industrial land are visualized. The visualized surrounding land use compositions give planners an idea on what causes land use transitions, the most frequent transition forms and their impacts on the surroundings, purely from a land use point of view to reduce data collection efforts. The North Brabant region in the Netherlands is used as a case study. The region is split into urban and non-urban areas to show the generic applicability of this framework.     

Critical Issues in Earthquake Scenario Loss Modeling

The assessment of human or economic losses due to single events (scenario) may effectively support decision makers in the development of important risk mitigation actions. The study presented herein sheds light on several problems and limitations in the current practice of scenario loss modeling, such as: the number of simulations required to achieve convergence; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the ground motion prediction and vulnerability models; and consideration of the earthquake rupture geometry. These issues are investigated using the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), and it has been observed that distinct assumptions in the loss modeling can lead to considerably different results. The findings of this study are also pertinent for probabilistic seismic risk analyses in which a large number of stochastically generated events are employed to assess probabilistic losses.     

关于建立国内馆藏文物防震应急管理体系的探讨

我国地处环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带间,因地震导致的馆藏文物损毁现象时有发生。近年来,我国馆藏文物防震技术研究取得了不少成果,并在部分博物馆成功进行了一体化防震示范应用。但总体而言,馆藏文物防震风险预防和应急管理水平仍相对滞后,部分博物馆存在防震措施不合理、日常管理匮乏、应急能力不足等现象,亟待健全馆藏文物防震应急管理体系,其中应急预案的编制尤为重要。通过建立完善的应急管理体系,博物馆能够全面提高防震意识和应急处置能力,合理利用各类防震措施降低潜在风险,更好地保护馆藏文物。     

Performance-based Seismic Design of a Pendulum Tuned Mass Damper System

The study implements the performance-based analysis and design methodology to assess the seismic vulnerability of a coal-fired power plant and to optimally design its equivalent pendulum-type tuned mass damper system such that the direct losses are minimized. A building-specific total loss ratio is developed to link the component level losses with the total repair cost of the original structure. The optimal system configuration is finally derived for cases with the minimum loss. The study demonstrates a systematic way of achieving the optimal pendulum-type tuned mass damper design with considerations of uncertainties in earthquake inputs and the combined component level damages.     

产业集聚:地理学与经济学主流观点的对比

20世纪80年代以来,国际学术界出现了两种以企业行为的分析为基础解释产业空间集聚的"新经济地理学"理论模型:地理学中的"新经济与工业地理学"和经济学中的"地理经济学"。本文从理论起源、产业集聚的成因、市场结构的性质、外部经济的类型、交易关系与根植性、产业集聚的机制等方面对二者进行了系统的比较分析。     

Critical Issues on Probabilistic Earthquake Loss Assessment

Probabilistic loss modeling can be used to develop risk reduction measures, such as the identification of regions more prone to human and economic losses, or to develop financial mechanisms to transfer the earthquake risk from local governments to the private sector. This study addresses several critical issues in probabilistic loss modeling, and provides recommendations depending on the intended final use of the risk results. Modeling issues related to convergence in probabilistic event-based analysis; consideration of epistemic uncertainties within a logic tree; generation of different types of loss exceedance curves; and derivation of risk maps are thoroughly investigated. The Metropolitan Area of Lisbon is used to explore these issues, and it is demonstrated that different assumptions in the loss modeling process can lead to considerably different risk results. Furthermore, the findings and recommendations of this study are also relevant for institutions that promote the assessment of earthquake hazard and risk, such as the Global Earthquake Model Foundation.     

全球化背景下的广东省制造业地理集中研究

本文利用2004年经济普查的数据,分析了广东省制造业的地理分布特征。广东省大多数的制造业地理集中程度都较高,并且主要集中在珠三角地区,很多地理集中程度较高的制造业分布都存在较高的空间自相关性。对广东省制造业集中的实证研究表明,资源和能源投入强度较高的产业较为集聚,并且出口显著提高了产业集聚程度。尽管外资是广东省制造业发展的重要力量,但是并没有促进产业的集聚,说明制造业外资已经进入扩散阶段。本文的结果和全国尺度的研究结果存在差异,这说明地理尺度对于研究产业集聚非常重要。