Microcredit and Women's Empowerment: Through the Lens of Time‐Use Data from Rural India

This study examines the impact of microcredit on male and female time use, and draws on this analysis to explore the linkages between credit and women's empowerment. A study of time use can help understand these linkages, because if credit is intended to improve women's livelihoods, it can also be expected to influence the way women allocate their time. Its other advantages are that it does not suffer from much time lag and can be objectively measured. Using household survey data from rural India, the findings show that while microcredit has little impact on women's time use, it helps their husbands move away from wage work (associated with bad pay and low status) to self‐employment. This is because women's loans are typically used to enhance male ownership of the household's productive assets. Further, it is found that it is only women who use loans in self‐managed enterprises who are able to allocate more time to self‐employment. If credit is intended to increase the value of women's work time, it follows that it is not access to loans but use of loans that matters. Ensuring women's control over loan‐created assets must therefore be a critical policy objective.     

DO CAPITAL TAX INCENTIVES ATTRACT NEW BUSINESSES? EVIDENCE ACROSS INDUSTRIES FROM THE NEW MARKETS TAX CREDIT

In this paper, we examine how government policy affects the sorting of industries across jurisdictions using the New Markets Tax Credit (NMTC) program. When estimating the impact of the tax credit on business activity, there are likely to be unobservable local characteristics that are correlated with business location decisions that would cause OLS estimates to be biased. To control for this endogenous selection, we use a plausibly exogenous eligibility cutoff and compare census tracts that are just eligible for the NMTC program to those that are just ineligible. Using data from the Dun and Bradstreet MarketPlace Files, we find that eligibility for the NMTC program caused industries to sort across eligible and noneligible tracts. In particular, we find that there is an increase in retail employment, both among new businesses and existing businesses, and an increase in manufacturing employment at existing businesses in tracts that were eligible for the program. However, we find negative effects on employment at new firms in the wholesale and transportation industries, and decreases in the number of new firms in FIRE and services. Policy makers should be cognizant of these results, as the implications of the sorting across industries on local areas must be considered to design effective policy.     

CHANGES IN THE LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT AND OWNERSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM CALIFORNIA*

ABSTRACT We use the National Establishment Time‐Series database to describe shifts in the geographic dispersion of employment and ownership of firms. Focusing on data on business establishments in California, and establishments anywhere in the United States that are owned by firms headquartered in California, we find shifts in the operations of businesses headquartered in California to other states. However, this shift has been offset by increased employment in the state by firms headquartered elsewhere, resulting in California's share of national employment holding quite constant. The evidence points to increasing geographic dispersion of firms' operations, especially in industries with lower communication costs.     

ANALYZING THE COST OF DEBT FOR SMALL BUSINESS

The available empirical evidence provides mixed views of small businesses' relative bankruptcy risk. The difference between Churchill and Lewis' findings and SBA's and Kirchhoffs' may well lie in the difference in definition of firm “size” used. Risk is not evenly spread; the smallest businesses seem to be less risky than the intermediate size businesses. Yet, Churchill and Lewis' actual loss evidence suggests that small business risk is only marginally greater than for large businesses, the loss rate is still equivalent to less than one half of one percent. The assumptions that lenders will adjust the amount of debt they allow small business clients rather than the interest rate is not rejected by this evidence. In fact, the much higher profitability of the small business department reported by Churchill and Lewis suggests that the bank's loan interest rates are more than high enough to cover loss risk and fixed costs, and borrowers provide profitable deposits. Thus, the logic of my utility theory hypothesis provides a reasonable explanation for the relatively higher debt levels of small firms compared to large firms. But, then the Kirchhoffs' findings cast some doubt on whether small firms actually have higher debt levels. None of these findings justify the 2.75 percent interest rate spread allowed by SBA.     

晚明商人借贷的利息率与商业性借贷的发展

商人借贷利息率的高低对商业性借贷的发展有直接的影响。晚明商人借贷的利息率总体上以低于年息36％为多,这一利率既大大低于消费性借贷的利息率,又低于市场平均利息率,一般均在法定利息率的范围之内。虽然商人借贷的利息率相对较低,但在风险机制的作用下,放贷者向商人放贷的积极性不会受到减损。又由于利率较低,商人借贷通常有利可图,因而商业性借贷能够得到发展。     

The Net Effects of Large Plant Locations and Expansions on County Employment*

This paper argues that the net economic impact of new firm locations or expansions is determined by a multitude of opposing forces. Using a unique database, I set out to evaluate the net effects of these opposing forces by looking at the net change in local employment and population arising from large (greater than 300 new jobs) firm locations or expansions in the State of Georgia. The analysis suggests that the employment multipliers associated with new firm locations are much less than one; that is, the net employment effect of a large firm opening is smaller than the gross employment impact. This result is consistent with other empirical economic impact studies, which find multipliers much smaller than those of typical input–output models, often less than unity, and a previous study showing little net effect of large plant openings. Expansions of existing establishments are shown to have substantial multiplicative effects, however, with an average employment multiplier of 2.0. I discuss possible reasons for differential impacts across new and expanding firms, focusing on the nature of the firms. Differences in net impact across industries and high‐tech versus low‐tech firms also is evaluated. I find that the impact of large firm locations or expansions on population in the resident county generally is negative, but positive for the broader region encompassing the county of location and its contiguous neighbors.     

Understanding Social Performance: A ‘Practice Drift’ at the Frontline of Microfinance Institutions in Bangladesh

This article examines the role of microfinance staff and procedures in enabling microfinance's social mission. It does so primarily through studying institutional ruling relations and practices in rural Bangladesh. Attempting to move away from the linear and deterministic approaches of impact studies, it ethnographically scrutinizes the everyday practices of implementers. Findings point to the emergence of systemic practices that jeopardize microfinance institutions’ potential to perform their social mission. These include low client‐selection standards, hard selling of loans and forceful loan renewal, little follow‐up on loan use, and abusive and violent client‐retention and repayment‐collection strategies. This is conceptualized as a ‘practice drift’ as distinct from the commonly reported ‘mission drift’. Rather than stemming from planned, top‐down changes in institutional mission and strategy, practice drift emerges from a displacement of decision‐making processes to the branches. The article argues that observed changes in microfinance practice are enabled by decentralized structures and management systems that leave the choice of tactics used to achieve targets to the discretion of field staff.     

Capital Assistance for Small Firms: Some Implications for Regional Economic Welfare

This paper analyzes the role of finance capital in regional economic development. A cost‐benefit approach is invoked in order to estimate the welfare impacts of a regional loan and guarantee program for small firms in Israel. Program‐created employment is treated as a benefit and an employment account that separates net from gross employment, is presented. An estimate of net wage benefits is then derived. This involves adjusting wages across different earnings classes in order to account for the variation in opportunity costs of labor at different levels. The estimation of costs includes the opportunity costs of capital, administration, default, and tax‐raising costs. Results point to substantial regional welfare effects. We stress the need to account for changing regional economic structure in this kind of evaluation framework.     

THE EFFECTS OF TRADE WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ON THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR SKILL IN THE U.S.: EVIDENCE FROM COUNTY DATA*

ABSTRACT Using county‐level data from the 1980s and 1990s and a county‐level trade measure that incorporates the county's industrial mix and patterns of international trade across industries, I provide new evidence that trade with developing countries raises the demand for skill and the skill premium in the U.S. Consistent with Heckscher–Ohlin, I find that trade driven by differences in factor endowments has an economically significant impact on local labor markets. The evidence suggests that when trade with developing countries rises, counties with higher skill endowment and greater employment in industries with larger trade shares experience greater relative demand for high‐skilled labor.     

Airport delays and metropolitan employment

This study provides the first empirical assessment of the impact airline delays have on urban employment. While previous works have suggested that road congestion can slow down regional development, the influence of air traffic delays on metro‐level jobs has not been examined comprehensively. The present study uses a nine‐year panel of quarterly data, which covers passenger airline traffic and delays at airports across urban areas in the United States. The panel also includes data on total and industry‐specific employment at the metropolitan‐area level. Our empirical estimates of the impact of air traffic on total employment are comparable to previously reported measures in the literature. However, we find that service‐sector employment is less sensitive to air traffic than other studies suggested. We provide new evidence confirming that delays have a negative effect on employment, a finding that is robust to various specifications of our empirical model. Our results indicate that a 10 percent increase in the number of delayed flights leads to up to a 0.15 percent decrease in total and service‐sector employment, a 0.47 percent decline in leisure and hospitality employment, and a 0.7 percent reduction in the employment level of goods‐producing jobs.     

The Samaritan's dilemma: The effectiveness of Australian foreign aid to Papua New Guinea

There is increasing recognition in the development literature that foreign aid can have malign effects on the recipient country, especially in failing states. This paper considers the impact of Australian aid on macro-level development in Papua New Guinea. After a review of official evaluations of the effectiveness of aid, the potential sources of ‘aid failure’ and ‘aid accountability’ in Papua New Guinea, it is argued that the current Australian macro-level aid program needs to be reassessed. In particular, the focus, coherence and impact on civil society of Australian aid should be modified in order to minimise its debilitating effects.     

Entry points for local tourism in developing countries: evidence from Yogyakarta, Indonesia

International tourism is an increasingly important source of income and employment for many developing countries with over 690 million annual international arrivals (World Tourism Organisation data). This paper considers the impact of tourism in the city of Yogyakarta, in Java, Indonesia, and asks whether one subsector of international tourism, namely backpacker tourism, provides a way for local people to enter this globalised industry. The paper examines the emergence of small‐scale, bottom‐ up tourism and its transformatory effect upon a previously poor kampung (urban village). It is suggested that the nature of small‐scale, locally owned tourism businesses, particularly their minimal capital requirements, may be seen as a form of ‘pro‐poor tourism’ and may provide a useful component of local economic development strategies for poor communities. Further, smallscale tourism development may also be seen as an effective local response to some of the effects of globalisation, specifically increasing flows of international tourists to developing countries.     

Determinants of Organizational Failure in the Milwaukee School Voucher Program

In this article, we utilize 25 years of data on the Milwaukee voucher program to test the relationships among organizational liabilities of newness, institutional affiliation, market‐share, and regulatory environment on the cumulative risk of school failure. Overall, we find that 41 percent of all private voucher schools operating in Milwaukee between 1991 and 2015 failed. Start‐up voucher schools, and those unaffiliated with a larger institution, have comparatively higher failure risk over time. The results of our analysis shed light onto one of the long‐term impacts of a public policy reform premised on social entrepreneurship. We conclude that policymakers should consider the consequences of organizational failure when utilizing nongovernment entities in the provision of public goods, and that scholars focus increased attention to understanding the negative externalities created by public entrepreneurship.     

The Impact of Temporary Immigrant Workforce Growth on Employee Verification Policies in the United States

The U.S. Department of Labor admits temporary immigrant workers to address labor shortages in local markets. Yet, do elected officials make it less difficult for some immigrants than others to secure employment in a state? Using U.S. temporary immigrant labor admissions data between 2006 and 2014, I examine the extent to which growth rates of main foreign‐born subgroups influence E‐Verify policies that require employers to authenticate the legal immigration status of employees. I find that state policymakers are less likely to enact E‐Verify policies in response to the growth of immigrants who work in specialty occupations (H‐1b visas). In contrast, the growth of immigrants working in nonspecialty occupations (H‐2a and H‐2b visas) increases the likelihood of enacting E‐Verify policies over time. The results suggest that policymakers release strict rules for employment only for highly educated immigrants who work in specialty occupations that offer higher paying salaries and career advancement opportunities. Disaggregating a monolithic foreign‐born population indicator into more specific class components provides an important contribution to public policy studies. Scholars will likely overlook the contrasting effects of specialty and nonspecialty immigrant workforce growth on policy decisions relating to immigrant employment.     

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES*

ABSTRACT We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on U.S. county population, employment, and real income growth. Our findings suggest that government organization matters for local economic growth, but that the impacts vary by government unit and by economic indicator. We find that single‐purpose governments per square mile have a positive impact on metropolitan population and employment growth, but no significant impact on nonmetropolitan counties. In contrast, the fragmentation of general‐purpose governments per capita has a negative impact on employment and population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. Our results suggest that local government decentralization matters differently for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.     

左宗棠外债观探析

左宗棠是中国早期大举外债之第一人.在西征借款的过程中,他逐步形成了较为独特的外债观.左宗棠的外债观有三个基本内涵:举债应急以巩固塞防,以外债弥补传统政体的缺陷,初具国债观念的雏形.     

Securing the Return: How Enhanced US Border Enforcement Fuels Cycles of Debt Migration

Expanded border enforcement has made unauthorised migration to the US more risky, costly, and prone to failure. Research on the material consequences of border enforcement for migrant‐sending households in Central America reveals that the economic hardships enforcement exacts on migrants at times diminishes enforcement's desired deterrent power. Heightened risks have driven up the cost of migration and pushed many to fund their trips through loans. Consequently, migrant detention, deportation, or death can result in poverty and privation for indebted households and the seizure of loan collateral, typically homes and land, in turn prompting crises in household reproduction. With a US wage the most viable means to ameliorate economic hardships, enforcement outcomes push some to return migration. Our findings suggest that US border enforcement efforts at times perpetuate the very unauthorised migration they seek to impede, while also helping to reproduce the border itself by deepening the marginalisation that drives migration decisions.     

Local Community Characteristics and Cooperation for Shared Green Reputation

This article examines how basic socioeconomic and political factors are associated with higher levels of cooperation to garner a local community's shared green reputation. We analyze panel data on participation efforts in a collective voluntary environmental program, the Ecological Blue Flag Program, by the entire population of beach communities in Costa Rica between 2001 and 2009. Collective voluntary environmental programs are relatively new and aim to improve environmental performance and shared “green” reputation through joint participation and certification of multisector groups comprising businesses, governmental institutions, and nongovernmental organizations. Our results indicate that higher levels of within‐community cooperation for shared green reputation are more likely in seashore localities with lower income inequality and/or a higher number of businesses. These findings run counter to research suggesting these same characteristics are associated with lower levels of cooperation in the management of common pool natural resources such as fisheries and forests. We also find that within‐community cooperation is positively correlated with a greater proportion of expatriates from industrialized countries and/or with higher levels of democratic political participation.     

Robustness of econometrically estimated local multipliers across different methods and data

Local traded‐goods employment multiplier estimates play an important role in the decision making of local policy makers. Therefore, it is important to understand the robustness of the approaches and quality of the data used in empirical studies. The local employment multiplier estimates by Moretti (AER; 2010) are a good benchmark for departure. In this paper, I find the traded‐goods multiplier falls within the range of 1.17 to 1.93, which is substantially lower than the estimate of 2.6 obtained by Moretti. I use multiple estimators in combination with two data sets, a range of controls and different ways of classifying traded industries to show the robustness and variability of local employment multiplier estimates. Finally, I demonstrate the sensitivity of Moretti's results. The most notable result being that Moretti's multiplier for separate skilled or unskilled workers in the nontraded sector is overestimated by a factor of 2.     

The Dynamics of Work and Survival for the Urban Poor: A Gender Analysis of Panel Data from Madras

ABSTRACT This paper examines the functioning of the household economy and family labour supply over a five-year period among a panel sample of poor households in Madras using an event history methodology. The research focused on the key role women play in sustaining poor households despite constrained labour market choices. Women's earnings from daily self-employed work activities provided a substantial and steady component to total household income which tended to fluctuate with the earnings and family pool contribution of casually employed males. As economic stress events hit the family over time, women helped by increasing earnings, adding on secondary jobs, utilizing their earning status to obtain loans from a variety of sources, sacrificing their subsidized business loan for family debt repayment, and foregoing personal expenditures and leisure. At the same time women also managed the increasingly more difficult tasks of fulfilling basic needs of the household such as food, fuel and water collection, sanitation and childcare with less resources of time. Development policies must reflect the fact that women are central to individual family survival and as a whole they are key actors in the adjustment process to the crises in employment occurring in the local and national economy.