东亚经济危机与东亚发展模式新探

本文从三个方面论述了东亚经济发展模式。首先,从历史的角度分析了东亚经济发展模式的产生、特点及其局限性。然后,进一步指出在经济全球化和信息化加速发展新的历史条件下,东亚发展模式已不能适应时代发展的要求,东亚发展模式与这次东亚经济危机存在着内在的必然的联系。最后,对东亚经济发展模式的发展与变革提出了自己的观点。     

The contested rescaling of economic governance in East Asia: a special issue

The special issue this article opens engages with an apparent conundrum that has often puzzled observers of East Asian politics—why, despite the region's considerable economic integration, multilateral economic governance institutions remain largely underdeveloped. The authors argue that this ‘regionalism problématique’ has led to the neglect of prior and more important questions pertaining to how patterns of economic governance, beyond the national scale, are emerging in East Asia and why. In this special issue, the contributors shift analytic focus onto social and political struggles over the scale and instruments of economic governance in East Asia. The contributions identify and explain the emergence of a wide variety of regional modes of economic governance often neglected by the scholarship or erroneously viewed as stepping stones towards ‘deeper’ multilateralism.     

东亚经济一体化现状与趋势分析

本文以1985-2005年的经济数据和相关理论模型分析为基础,较为系统地探讨了东亚经济一体化的进展和未来趋势,并着重从东亚区域内贸易发展与贸易结构、资本流动、区域经济的货币金融相关度、区域一体化的福利效应和推进一体化的制度安排等方面进行了定量分析和政策探讨。     

“日本投资模式”在东亚经济效应分析

根据小岛清的“边际产业扩张论”,日本对东亚的“顺贸易导向型”投资,对扩大东道国贸易,促进东道国宏观经济增长均有较大的积极效应,在东亚工业化初期发挥了“进口替代效应”,为建立“出口加工基地”做出了一定的贡献,但是由于日本对东亚投资结构的固定化类同化,技术转让滞后等,到了90年代后,不仅日本国内陷入长期的萧条,而且也诱导了东亚金融危机的爆发,且无力扭转东亚地区严重的经济危机。     

边界效应与跨国界经济合作的地域模式--以东亚地区为例

边界是划分不同政治实体及其管辖地域的政治地理界线。国际边界对地区经济发展有屏障和中介两种效应,并在一定条件下可相互转化。从跨国界经济合作的角度,可划分出封闭型、半封闭型和开放型等边界类型,不同的边界类型对跨国界次区域经济合作的影响不同。边界效应在空间维上是可变的,通过空间扩散向腹地外延。文中图示了核心腹地、紧密腹地和边缘腹地三种类型。在经济全球化和区域经济集团化的推动下,开放型边界逐渐增多,跨国界次区域经济合作日益发展,成为区域经济集团化的一种重要表现形式。本文以边界经济合作发展迅速的东亚地区为研究样本,提出了边界跨国界经济合作的3种基本地域模式,即通道模式、贸易口岸模式和开发区模式,并探讨了各自在边界经济合作中的发展内涵及发展前景。     

变动中的东亚地缘政治与美国东亚政策的演变

近年来,伴随着中国的快速发展和东亚地缘政治格局的变化,美国加快了向东亚转移战略力量的步伐,这一动向值得中国关注。本文通过对近代以来东亚地缘政治格局的变化进行分析,系统梳理了美国东亚政策的来龙去脉及其主线,并对美国东亚政策的未来走向进行了预研。     

区域东亚与知识“东亚”

"东亚"既是一个空间性概念——即地理性、地域性的概念,又是一个时间性的概念——即历史性的和意识形态的概念。现代性的介入,使得"东亚"成为一个需要不断重新界定和检验的概念。区域东亚是知识"东亚"的理解和阐释对象,知识"东亚"是区域东亚在理论和知识上的抽象和提升。区域东亚在结构上具有封闭性、多元性的特征,在功能上又具有流变性和开放性的特征。知识"东亚"的命题集中反映了知识界的"中心-边缘"结构、各种知识背后的意识形态竞争和权力诉求。现代性和东亚的关系并不是一种单向度的"冲击-回应"关系,而是一种双向的相互建构的共生关系。     

Regionalising resource security in the Asia-Pacific: the challenge of economic nationalism

In recent years, efforts to institutionalise resource security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region have intensified. Soaring world prices for minerals and energy have seen a range of resource security strategies launched—through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), ASEAN Plus Three, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the East Asia Summit—all of which aim to promote intergovernmental dialogue, policy coordination and the integration of regional resource markets. However, the practical achievements of these regional efforts have been limited, as none have advanced beyond dialogue activities to more formalised types of resource security cooperation. This article examines the dynamics of these abortive attempts to regionalise resource cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, arguing that economic nationalist resource policy preferences held by governments have acted as a major obstacle to cooperation. Through an analysis of national resource policy regimes and the outputs of recent cooperative efforts, it demonstrates how economic nationalism has encouraged inward-looking and sovereignty-conscious actions on the part of major resource players in the Asia-Pacific. As a result, intergovernmental resource cooperation has been limited to informal and voluntary ‘soft-law’ initiatives, which have not made a substantive contribution to the resource security of economies in the region.     

“东亚协同体论”与伪满“建国精神”

“七七”事变后,中国历史进入了全面抗战时期：日本帝国主义采取一系列军事行动的同时,加大了思想文化上的侵略力度：战争期流行的“东亚协同体论”,就是为从思想文化上进行殖民扩张而制造的侵略理论。与伪满“建国精神”相比,这一文化渗透方式更加暧昧、更加隐蔽。从思想的内部关联看,可以发现它们具有同质性。     

Towards Asian regional functional futures: bringing Mitrany back in?

In the early years of the twenty-first century, Asian regionalism is at a crossroads. While the region is home to a broad array of multilateral organisations, the record of these bodies in fostering effective and legitimate cooperation has been decidedly weak. Drawing on insights from the work of David Mitrany on international cooperation, this article contends that the key problem facing Asian regionalism is a predilection for ‘top-down’ rather than ‘bottom-up’ regionalism strategies. These top-down strategies have involved efforts to find a single institutional design for regional cooperation (similar to the experience of Europe), which has been hindered by geopolitical rivalries and a lack of shared consensus around what constitutes the ‘Asian region’. By considering the contours of interstate competition in Asia, the track record of its existing regionalism efforts and insights from comparative regional studies, it is instead argued that Asia's future is one of regions rather than a single region. As Mitrany suggests, the unique geopolitical context in Asia means that functionally discrete and variegated strategies are likely to provide a more effective basis for regional cooperation. Indeed, trends towards such a functional approach to regionalism are already becoming evident in Asia today.     

“大东亚战争”时期日本殖民主义政策面面观——《艺文》第1卷第6号读解

1941年末,日本军国主义发动“大东亚战争”,翌年3月始,又举办一系列“满洲”建国十周年的“庆典”活动,此间出版的《艺文》杂志第1卷第6号,鲜明地反映了该特殊时期“满洲”日本殖民主义政策的面面观及殖民地民众的思绪。     

Population–development debate revisited: evidence from Asian countries

This study revisits an on-going debate regarding the nature of relationship between population growth and economic development. It has selected 12 Asian countries as a case study to examine the possible existence of a significant relationship between population expansion and economic development in these countries. Empirical findings indicated that, contrary to popular beliefs, there is a significant positive relationship between the variables. This suggests that population growth has been beneficial to economic development in the region and not detrimental.     

A European political-economic space that embraced Japan: the international context of the conventional-tariff network,ca.1892–1914

This article sheds new light on the economic globalization in Europe and Asia from the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries, with a special focus on the role of bilateral commercial treaties and import tariffs. Countries concluded a number of treaties in those days, and they came to form an extensive ‘conventional-tariff network’. This mechanism contributed to the stabilization of international economic-political space by facilitating reciprocal tariff concessions. The extent of this conventional-tariff network was both temporally and geographically larger than has been assumed. First, as the recent scholarship has shown, the network, which emerged in the 1860s, survived the political turbulence of the 1890s and spanned Central European countries such as Germany and Italy by the early 1910s. Second, the network spread outside Europe and reached East Asia by the 1910s, when Japan renegotiated its commercial treaties and became a new member of the network. The network embodied so strong a mechanism of self-maintenance based on the coordination of economic interests that it was resilient to a major political shock such as the First World War. While the tariff systems in Europe and in East Asia around 1900 have been separately discussed in the literature, this paper focuses on the treaty partnership between these two areas to show how the mechanism of the conventional-tariff network enabled the countries to cooperate for mutual concessions on international trade.     

Comparing Projection Assumptions of Fertility in Six Advanced Asian Economies; or ‘Thinking Beyond the Medium Variant’

The United Nations' (UN) World Population Prospects are perhaps the most widely used population projections in both academic and policy discourses. In this short research note, we examine six advanced Asian economies, and compare the fertility assumptions used by the UN with those derived from local statistical offices (LSOs). We identify a significant divergence between them. When translated into total projected population size of younger age groups (0–14 years), the use of the UN rather than the LSO ‘medium’ projection can increase the total projected population size by up to 50% by 2040.     

中国文化现代化与东亚合作

本文尝试将中国文化现代化与东亚合作议题结合起来进行整体性思考,以探讨区域文化传统的传承、大众文化与文化产业合作以及有益于共同利益的、面向未来的文化共同体建构。首先,提出了观察和思考中国文化现代化路径的三个维度:民族本源、地区基础和全球视野。其次,梳理了东亚文化传统的同质性内容和共同演进逻辑,讨论了以东亚文化传统为基石构建面向未来的文化共同体的可能性。其三,以全球范围内的文化同质化趋势为背景,提出应立足东亚三国文化产业领域的既有优势、合作基础和共同市场,构造一条成熟有序的大众文化生产与传播链条。     

实施区域倾斜政策逐步缩小我国地区经济发展差距

本文根据区域政策在地区经济发展和地区差距变动中的作用,提出应当对我国中西部地区实施区域倾斜政策,以实现控制地区相对差距不再扩大的第一步目标和地区绝对差距逐渐缩小的第二步目标。指出这一区域倾斜政策应当是一个兼顾效率与公平的区域政策,是一个向重点地区和重点领域倾斜的区域政策,是一个包括经济优惠、社会公平和生态补偿等方面手段的区域政策。     

Economic crises in the ASEAN area: types and responses

Southeast Asia, the world region covering the countries of ASEAN, lies at the crossroads between China and India. Since early times it has been part of the global economy, going through cycles of boom and bust at least from the nineteenth century onwards. This essay compares three successive economic crises during the 1880s, 1930s and late 1990s. It shows how different types of crisis reflected as well as produced changes in the connectivity between production factors and institutional arrangements. Whereas the crisis of the 1880s was ‘local’, that of the 1930s was both ‘national’ and ‘delegated global’ and that of the 1990s ‘regional’ in nature. The types of crisis and the ways in which they were handled reflected structural changes in the institutional architecture of the global economy.