Reevaluating the Relationship Between In‐, Out‐, and Net Migration for Nonmetropolitan Counties: An Update on Beale's U‐Shaped Curve

The relationship of gross migration to net migration is continuously undergoing reevaluation in the literature. However, one major finding by Beale (1969) that produced the famous u‐shaped curve has received little attention, a surprising situation considering the significant changes that have taken place in rural America since 1969. In this paper I use gross migration data from IRS returns for 1995–1998, and differentiate the rates using a number of classification schemes developed by the USDA and the Census Bureau. The results show that rural America is a diverse place, and that migration rates vary tremendously depending on the geographic, economic, and social characteristics of the county. Furthermore, the relationship between gross and net migration varies much more than previously suggested, especially in negative net migration counties, a finding with implications for migration theory and public policy.     

中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,对我国人口迁移的特征及其影响因素进行研究。首先分析了包括年龄、性别、受教育程度和职业分布等在内的迁移人群的社会经济特征,继而从迁移原因、迁移人口的城乡分布、迁移时间、迁移类型与属性的交叉分析等方面探讨了人口迁移的类型学特征。引入就业可达性概念,分析了人口迁移率的空间格局、就业可达性与人口迁移率的空间匹配关系以及人口迁移流的空间格局,发现通过就业可达性格局可以很好地解释人口迁移率的分布。最后,采取多元线性回归技术研究了人口迁移的影响因素,结果表明,迁入地城镇居民收入与迁移率呈正相关关系,而迁出地城镇收入、迁入地的科技文化水平、迁移距离和迁入地农村收入则与迁移率呈负相关关系。     

The Politics of Welfare Exclusion: Immigration and Disparity in Medicaid Coverage

The rapid growth of the immigrant population in the United States, along with changes in the demographics and the political landscape, has often raised questions for understanding trends of inequality. Important issues that have received little scholarly attention thus far are excluding immigrants’ social rights through decisive policy choices and the distributive consequences of such exclusive policies. In this article, we examine how immigration and state policies on immigrants’ access to safety net programs together influence social inequality in the context of health care. We analyze the combined effect of immigration population density and state immigrant Medicaid eligibility rules on the gap of Medicaid coverage rates between native‐ and foreign‐born populations. When tracking inequality in Medicaid coverage and critical policy changes in the post‐PRWORA era, we find that exclusive state policies widen the native‐foreign Medicaid coverage gap. Moreover, the effect of state policies is conditional on the size of the immigrant population in that state. Our findings suggest immigrants’ formal integration into the welfare system is crucial for understanding social inequality in the U.S. states.     

Skill,Migration and Gender in Australia and Canada: The Case of Gender-based Analysis

The shift away from family immigration and towards skilled immigration is one of the most important changes over the past decade in Australian immigration policy. Yet the implications of this shift for female applicants have remained largely unexplored. Skilled immigration has slipped by as a genderless story in which the androgynous skilled migrant is the central character and economists do most of the storytelling. This paper discusses the gender equality concerns raised by the policy shift towards skilled immigration. It argues that Australia's skilled immigration scheme disadvantages female applicants through its construction both of economic independence and ‘skill.’ A comparison with Canada's skilled migration law and regulations, which are audited by gender mainstreaming tools, is considered to ascertain what role, if any, gender-based analysis plays in identifying and rectifying the potential gender inequalities produced by skilled immigration selection.     

基于GIS的中国省际人口迁移流的空间特征分析

文章基于中国第五、六次人口普查与2005年1%人口普查数据资料,采用流数据分析方法,运用GIS空间分析技术,选用省际人口迁移的最大联系线、最大迁出流、最大迁入流、期望线、迁移效率、粗迁移率等方法系统地研究了我国1995-2010年间省际迁移的时空动态特点及其区际联系。结果表明:全国省际人口迁移的流动性不断增强,东部地区更明显;省际最大人口迁出与迁入流反映了中国省际区域间空间相互作用整体框架,全国大致可以分为3个人口吸引片区和5个辐射片区;省际最大净迁移流主要分布在东南沿海地区,中、西部地区分布较少,其空间分布与各省的MEI_(i)指数密切相关。     

Why Scotland needs more than just a new migration policy

The Scottish Executive has adopted a policy to combat Scotland's declining population by encouraging inward migration. Using a multi‐state population model this paper presents nine long‐term population scenarios for Scotland using three net international migration levels and three fertility paths. The results show inward migration can slow population decline but makes little difference to population ageing. Without a higher fertility rate Scotland's population will become demographically unsustainable. Our simulations show that a higher fertility rate substantially reduces the future ageing.     

ARE IMMIGRANTS MORE MOBILE THAN NATIVES? EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY

Low rates of internal migration in many European countries contribute to the persistence of significant regional labor market differences. I use the Mikrozensus, a large annual sample of households living in Germany, to further our understanding of the underlying reasons. This paper makes two main contributions: first, the paper quantifies the disutility of migrating. To this end, I estimate conditional logit models of the migration decision across the German federal states. Second, I then focus on the differences between immigrants and natives. I find significantly higher responsiveness to labor market differentials in the immigrant population than in the native population. Unobserved moving costs for immigrants are estimated to be only about 31 percent of this same cost for natives. The findings bear on the assessment of the economic impact of immigration, and the paper contributes to the current immigration‐related policy debates that feature prominently in many European countries, and that likely will continue to be important in light of the ongoing EU expansion and the resulting east–west migration.     

United States–Mexico: The Convergence of Public Policy Views in the Post‐9/11 World

This article explores the state of public policy preferences between the United States and Mexico in the realm of foreign policy in the context of the post‐9/11 world, democratic change within Mexico, and the immigration protests within the United States. Specifically, we will analyze the differences and possible convergence of public policy views on the issues of terrorism, immigration, free trade agreements, drug trafficking, and foreign policy. We find that although there are differences of opinion, particularly in the application of force in Iraq and on the benefits of free trade, there still remains a significant degree of positive convergence within the policy issues of terrorism, immigration, and drug trafficking. Although there are institutional impediments to progressive policy change, future relations between the United States and Mexico do not need to be contentious as long as the focus is on the similarities, rather than the differences, in public preferences between the populations of the two states.     

Presentational state power: temporal and spatial influences over asylum sector decisionmakers

Previous analyses of forced migration have drawn attention to the increasing discretion held by asylum sector decisionmakers. According to these accounts, as the state reacts to the political risks associated with asylum migration control, responsibility for forced migration management is increasingly transferred onto a range of intermediate actors, between state and society, including local government employees, asylum interviewers, immigration judges and security staff. Yet little research has directly addressed these intermediaries' collective experiences and the influences to which they are subject. The article therefore focuses attention explicitly upon the nominal conduct of this increasingly authorised, discretionary and highly heterogeneous population. Drawing upon 37 interviews across four sites at which asylum sector intermediaries have significant and increasing discretion over asylum seekers' experiences, the findings demonstrate the importance of institutionalised timing and spacing for the determination of their volitional conduct. The timing and spacing of government institutions are important, not only through their influence over asylum seekers directly, but also because they present asylum seekers to those with discretionary authority in ways that are conducive to exclusionary uses of this authority.     

Do Perceptions Match Reality? Comparing Latinos’ Perceived Views of State Immigration Policy Environments with Enacted Policies

This paper explores assumptions made and measurement approaches in the nuanced pathway between enacted state immigration policies and the outcomes they affect in Latino immigrant communities. Scholars across a variety of fields have found that contemporary state immigrant policymaking is associated with outcomes in immigrant communities including political engagement, mental and physical health, access to education, and labor opportunities. In this paper, we explore questions of how state immigration policies produce these and other outcomes. Much of this literature relies on the assumption that members of the immigrant communities are aware of the state policies being enacted, yet few quantitative studies of the effects of state immigration policy contain measures of both policy and of perception. We seek to determine the extent to which Latino immigrants are aware of state immigrant policymaking to help determine whether state immigration policies are a valid approach to measure perceptions of the immigration policy environment in Latino immigrant communities. Additionally, we explore alternative measures of immigration policy. Our findings are particularly relevant to policymakers and immigration scholars as the contemporary political environment has helped to fuel anti‐immigrant sentiments and rhetoric contributing to Latinos’ perceptions of the state immigrant policy environment.     

Population geography

Population geographers are involved in contemporary policy issues, the production of quality work, and successful communication of research findings. This article reviewed some contributions population geographers have made to the understanding of the geographic impact of aging and the consequences of migration. Geographers have come late to the study of aging and have focused primarily on four main policy issues: 1) fertility decline, 2) housing demography, 3) aged patterns of housing and migration, and 4) government policy. Fertility decline research has highlighted information diffusion theories for fertility decline by researchers such as Zelinsky, Skeldon, and Noin. Changes in attitudes and the removal on constraints has been examined by Woods. Residential mobility studies have been the focus of researchers such as Gober, Moore, and Clark, and Myers. Regional labor markets and the movement of the "baby boom" through the life course have been examined by Miron, Plane and Rogerson, and Clout, who studied the empty nesters and the movement out of suburbia. Private residential housing has increased for the elderly in England and Wales (Hamnett and Mullings), and seasonal migration of Minnesotans results in lost sales revenues and high health and social costs for those too ill to travel (Craig). Geographers have not accomplished a significant thrust into the literature on demographic aging. Contributions to the transnational and international literature have resulted in internal migration studies by Clout on "counterurbanization" in northwestern industrial Europe, while Fielding, Baltensperger, Marchand and Scott, and Jones have examined the continuing rural-urban migration. The loss of urban population has been associated with inner city problems, the impact of labor supply and market demand, and the revenue and health care consequences in the work of Champion, Gibson, and Champion and Illeris, and Craig. Impacts are felt differently by geographic location, and assorted models have been developed for examining interregional migration. Population movement between countries will be a future major policy issue associated with disparities in development. The benefits and disadvantages of immigration have been examined. Refugee movements have been a neglected are of study.     

Weathering the Storm: Social Policy and the Great Recession

This review discusses recent challenges to the welfare state arising from the Great Recession (GR). The GR was a significant event for social policy analysts, as it tested the responsiveness of welfare systems in the midst of a recent trend toward austerity politics in advanced economies. Social policy changes were part of the toolkit advanced democracies used to respond to the GR, and the welfare state mitigated the consequences of the GR. However, a stark limitation of the social safety net in the United States was the failure to assist immigrant households. The nexus of immigration and social policy is likely to be a significant controversy as we consider the meaning of social citizenship.     

Migrants and the diffusion of low marital fertility in Belgium

Although the diffusion of fertility behavior between different social strata in historical communities has received considerable attention in recent studies, the relationship between the diffusion of fertility behavior and the diffusion of people (migration) during the nineteenth century remains largely underexplored. Evidence from population registers compiled in the Historical Database of the Liège Region, covering the period of 1812 to 1900, reveals that migrant couples in Sart, Belgium, from 1850 to 1874 and from 1875 to 1899 had a reduced risk of conception. The incorporation of geographical mobility, as well as the migrant status of both husbands and wives, into this fertility research sheds light not only on the spread of ideas and behaviors but also on the possible reasons why the ideas and behaviors of immigrants might have been similar to, or different from, those of a native-born population.     

The migration response to the Legal Arizona Workers Act

The 2008 Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA) requires all public and private employers to authenticate the legal status of their workers using the federal employment verification system known as E-Verify. With LAWA, Arizona became the first state to have a universal mandate for employment verification. While LAWA targets unauthorized workers, most of whom are Latino immigrants, other groups could experience LAWA's effects, such as those who share households with undocumented workers. In addition, employers may seek to minimize their risk of LAWA penalties by not hiring those who appear to them as more likely to be unauthorized, such as naturalized Latino immigrants and US-born Latinos. Existing research has found a reduction in foreign-born Latino employment and population in response to LAWA. This paper asks a different question: have groups that are most likely to be affected by the law migrated to other states? We find a significant and sustained increase in the internal outmigration rate from Arizona of foreign-born, noncitizen Latinos – the group most likely to include the unauthorized – after the passage of LAWA. There was no significant LAWA internal migration response by foreign-born Latino citizens. US-born Latinos showed some signs of a LAWA-induced internal migration response after the law went into effect, but it is not sustained. The results indicate that local and state immigration policy can alter the settlement geography of the foreign born. This leads us to speculate about how immigrant settlement may adjust in the coming years to the intersecting geographies of post-recession economic opportunity and tiered immigration policies.     

Osama or the Georges: Shifting Threats and State Policy towards Civil Society in Uzbekistan

In examining the relationship between the War on Terror and restrictions on civil society, Uzbekistan is an important case, given its emergence as a key player in the operations in Afghanistan, its own terrorist threat, and its particularly stringent policy towards civil society. This article argues that while the ‘crackdown’ on civil society has followed a similar pattern to that of other countries where civil society is perceived as harbouring a threat, there has been a significant shift since the War on Terror began as to the perceived nature of the threat. At the time of 9/11, the government of Uzbekistan took Islamic terrorism to be the main threat; yet within the space of just over two years a new threat was perceived. Western support for civil society, a concession made to the US‐led coalition in return for support against Islamic terrorism, emerged as an even greater threat to the regime. It is this perceived threat that has primarily driven state policy towards civil society, raising important questions about how democracy promotion can be best taken forward in the post‐9/11 world.     

Is “Threat” in the Eye of the Researcher? Theory and Measurement in the Study of State‐Level Immigration Policymaking

This study initiates a methodological critique of the state‐level immigration policy literature through the lens of the racial threat and group power perspectives. First, I highlight the conceptual problems related to the application of such theories to legislature‐level data analysis. Next, I demonstrate the methodological and analytical problems that raise concerns about ad hoc theorizing in this field. Using counts of hostile and welcoming immigration legislation (2005–2011), I demonstrate that outgroup size measures correlate positively with both dependent variables while measures of population growth rate yield null results unless used on their own. These results suggest that the use of legislature‐level models with demographic indicators does not allow us to gain a clear understanding of whether and how population dynamics influence immigration policymaking. Based on these findings, I recommend that when using demographic indicators as key explanatory variables, researchers provide evidence of result consistency across multiple model specifications and also test the models with both hostile and inclusive policy variables. Such protocols would help avoid ad hoc theorizing.     

清代前中期陕甘地区的人口西迁

清代前中期陕甘地区的人口西迁是在清朝势力不断向西北推进的大背景下产生的,西迁人口主要有官方移民、民间自发移民和绿营兵丁及其眷属三种类型组成,官方组织陕甘人口西迁的主要动力先后经历过三次大的转折,因时而异的移民管理体系为移民的顺利推进提供了坚实的制度保障。至嘉庆末,迁入安西地区的陕甘移民及其后裔约10万人,迁入新疆地区的陕甘移民及其后裔可能接近或超过55万人,其中大约有六成左右的西迁人口不在官方户口统计范围之内。     

Rescaling Migration Studies: Migration Policy-Making and Implementation at the Local Government Level

How ‘the state’ perceives and responds to migration is gaining increasing attention. This analysis seeks to encourage debate on scales of governance in migration studies through a focus on policy-making and implementation on the part of local government officials in Scotland. Contributions include the elucidation of how immigrants are differentiated by individual local state actors and how this relates to the wider practices of local government towards them, and a typology conceptualising the heterogeneity of local state responses to immigration. This analytic emphasis on local state perceptions of, and responses to, migration and migrants hopes to inspire more nuanced and policy relevant understandings of ‘the state’ in migration research.     

Immigration Geopolitics Beyond the Mexico–US Border

Despite the centrality of Mexico–US border policing to pre‐ and post‐9/11 US immigration geopolitics, perhaps the most significant yet largely ignored immigration‐related fallout of the so‐called war on terrorism has been the extension of interior immigration policing practices away from the southwest border. As I outline in this paper, these interior spaces of immigration geopolitics—nominally said to be about fighting terrorism, but in practice concerned with undocumented labor migration across the Mexico–US border—have not emerged accidentally. Rather, the recent criminalization of immigration law, the sequestering of immigration enforcement from court oversight and the enrollment of proxy immigration officers at sub‐state scales have been actively pursued so as to make interior enforcement newly central to US immigration geopolitics. I argue here that these embryonic spaces of localized immigration geopolitics shed new light on the spatiality of US immigration governance, which has typically been thought of by geographers as active predominantly at the territorial margins of the state. I conclude the paper with some thoughts as to how geographers might rethink the what and where of contemporary US immigration geopolitics.     

A Time Series Analysis of Regional Income Inequalities and Migration in Japan, 1955–1985

This study tests the neoclassical concept of interregional migration in post–World War II Japan. The lead-lag relationship between net migration to a core area and regional income inequalities is examined by modeling an ARIMA transfer function. Until 1961, there was a rapid growth in net migration from the periphery to the core area that was accompanied by rapid divergence in regional income inequalities. Since then, migration to the core apparently has declined due to a convergence of regional income inequalities. The time series analysis indicates there has been short-run, as well as long-run, volatility in migration related to cyclical variations in economic performance in the core.