Shifting Electoral Geography in Russia's 1991 and 1996 Presidential Elections

This research note reexamines Russia's 1991 and 1996 presidential elections, focusing—unlike studies emphasizing stability of Russia's electorate—on differences in electoral geography in the two elections, with oblast-level vote totals for Boris Yel'tsin in 1991 and 1996 being only poorly correlated. Although Yel'tsin's performance in both elections was better in urban than in rural regions, the urbanrural divide in 1996 is shown to differ from that in 1991. Nonetheless, the Russian electorate is stable after 1993, regional voting patterns between 1993 and 1996 being both similar to each other and different from that in the 1991 election. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H10, O50, Z10. 6 tables, 14 references.     

Party registration choices as a function of the geographic distribution of partisanship: a model of `hidden partisanship' and an illustrative test

The Public Choice literature has identified conditions in which voters in multi-candidate contests would have an incentive to vote strategically rather than vote for the most preferred candidate or candidates. In the US, where party registration and party primaries play a critical role in the electoral process—especially in states with closed primaries—the existence of multiple layers of elections across constituencies can induce strategic falsification of party registration that is tied to the geographic distribution of electoral strength. Following V. O. Key, we should expect that a long history of one party dominance in local elections should encourage voters to register in the party whose elections are most determinative of electoral choices, even if that is not the party with which they most identify. However, in many states, while politics may be dominated by one party locally, there may be real two-party competition for at least some offices at the state level and for the presidency.We use a `natural experiment' to view the link between party registration and voting for president and obscure judicial offices in order to test the hypothesis that, for whichever party is the minority party in the local unit, party registration will understate the voting support in presidential or other statewide elections, where that party's candidates have a realistic chance to win. In the modern South this hypothesis can be shown to imply that the relationship between Republican party registration and vote shares for Republican candidates for president or statewide office ought to be curvilinear. To test this and other related hypotheses, we examine data on political units (e.g. counties) with considerable variation in party registration and concomitant variation in the extent of one-party dominance of local politics by looking at county level data from North Carolina for the presidential elections and obscure judicial elections in 1984 and 1996. As hypothesized, for the North Carolina data the relationship between party registration and voting can best be fit by a quadratic function, but the strength of the quadratic term is much less for the 1996 data, reflecting the increase in Republican registration and the success of local GOP candidates in the 1990s.     

Friends,neighbors, and sponsors in the 2016 French primary election. Revisiting a classical hypothesis from aggregated-level data

Using the concept of “friends and neighbors”, we attempt to answer a main question: Do candidates in a primary election perform best in territories where they benefit from many supporters among local representatives and partisan networks? Therefore, we collected a unique data set during the French right and center primary election of November 2016. For all candidates, in addition to their political career and the strength of their local anchorage, we considered the sponsorships they received from parliament members and local representatives. After fleshing out these data, we included it in a multivariate analysis of mobilization and votes in French departmental elections. Particularly, we distinguished local anchorage from the ability to mobilize partisan resources. Our results show that both phenomena have an important impact on primary outcomes.     

Rational behaviour,economic conditions and the Australian country party, 1922–1937

This article analyses the electoral support of the candidates of the Australian Country Party at Commonwealth (Senate) elections between the First and Second World Wars. It differs markedly, in terms of its premises, method and conclusions, from ‘orthodox’ analyses of the party's electoral support. Orthodox analyses state implicitly that rational (ie. goal‐directed, income‐maximising) considerations do not underlie the behaviour of the supporters of the Country Party; in contrast, I state explicitly that these considerations do underlie this behaviour. Further, orthodox analyses do not collect the evidence or data which they require in order to corroborate their claims; in contrast, I do so. Finally, unlike the Orthodox analyses, I specify as clearly as possible the techniques which I utilise in order to confront my data and hypotheses. I conclude that the behaviour of the supporters of the Country Party between the First and Second Wars is consistent with the postulate of rational behaviour, and that it is inconsistent with the arguments of orthodox studies.     

A Tale of Two Poll Books – Wareham 1702 and Dorchester 1705

The politics of Queen Anne's reign are characterised as the rage of party; Whigs and Tories contended over religion, the constitution and the succession, and foreign policy. This struggle was taken to the electorate in five elections during Anne's reign, and these raise a question concerning electors’ motivations, the answer to which remains elusive: were they acting according to principle, or reflecting the electoral interests to which they were subject? This article analyses the two surviving poll books for Dorset elections in the age of Anne, those at Wareham in 1702 and at Dorchester in 1705. It focuses principally on the voting behaviour of those engaged in the towns’ governance structures: corporation members, councils of freemen and local parishes. However, it also considers the behaviour of other categories of voter: politicians, the clergy and non-conformists. The analysis shows how electoral interest was mediated through the towns’ governing institutions and suggests that (at least in these two cases) negotiation between the parties had a greater role in the outcome than has sometimes been suggested. It also demonstrates the limits of the electoral influence of the boroughs’ elites: significant numbers of voters were simply not prepared to be led.     

The 1949 federal election: A reinterpretation

The 1949 federal election in Australia is widely regarded as one of Australia's most significant elections. This election ended eight years of ALP government and began a long period of unbroken rule by Liberal‐Country Party governments. Surprisingly, very little has been written about the 1949 election although various authors have addressed themselves to the question of why the Chifley government lost in December 1949. The orthodox interpretation is that Chifley's defeat in 1949 was to do with the issues of ‘bank nationalisation’ and ‘communism’. In this article, I offer a reinterpretation of the connection between political issues and voting behaviour in the 1949 election. Following the theory of Fiorina that voters tend to make their decision on the basis of how a party fares in handling problems in the past, I argue that the Australian electorate in 1949 responded negatively to Chifley's handling of the general economy and his policies on two crises in 1949 — the national coal strike and the dollar crisis.     

Voting and Not Voting in Early 18th-Century English Parliamentary Elections

This article uses data from 28 poll books to explore voter behaviour over time in early 18th-century English parliamentary elections (from 1710 to 1735). Voters in this period exhibited a high degree of partisan loyalty from one election to the next. But voters were also quite likely to drop out of the electorate between elections. As a case study of Sussex elections in 1734 shows, even among voters who made a definite promise to vote for a given candidate or set of candidates, there was a significant proportion who did not vote. While some non-voting can be explained as an attempt to avoid disobliging powerful patrons, this article argues that voters needed to be motivated to appear at the polls. The electoral culture of the early 18th century – treats, balls, public appearances by the candidates, etc. – should be understood as attempts to mobilise rather than to persuade potential voters.     

Pittite Triumph and Whig Failure in the Cambridge University Constituency, 1780–96*

Cambridge University has been featured in a wide range of studies of the long 18th century, but few have focused exclusively on the dynamics behind its politics. This is surprising since many of the Cambridge University electors were close to leading parliamentarians. The Cambridge University constituency was contested at each of the three successive general elections from 1780 onwards until 1796. Parliamentary contests often brought Cambridge University's political tensions into focus, which is why a detailed analysis of the poll books can demonstrate how different networks within the university behaved and could define the performance of candidates for the constituency. The relationships between the chancellors, vice-chancellors, high stewards, university officers, college heads, fellows, senate members and members of parliament who collectively made up the leadership are fundamental to understanding the electorate of Cambridge University. These relationships, in terms of friendships, alliances and rivalries, also influenced political and patronage networks within the university. William Pitt the Younger's success in changing the political complexion of Cambridge University is part of the broader realignment in British politics during the final two decades of the 18th century. Under the pressure of these events, Whig unity would come to an end as new divisions between ministerialists and reformers emerged. The experience of Cambridge University can shed light on the national shifts as well as how electioneering was carried out in the university parliamentary constituencies.     

An unlikely alliance: the 1907 Ukrainian–Jewish electoral coalition

This paper contextualises a political alliance between Ukrainian and Jewish national activists in Austrian Galicia during the 1907 parliamentary elections, Austria's first elections with universal manhood suffrage. This alliance represented a milestone in the making of a new paradigm of Ukrainian–Jewish relations. Ironically, the Ukrainian and Jewish nationalists, portrayed elsewhere as staunch enemies, were uniquely able to overcome the profound social, religious, political, and cultural barriers separating the two communities. Ukrainian nationalists recognised the potential of a nationalised Jewish community to undermine Polish hegemony in Galicia, while some Zionists saw the potential to elect Jewish parliamentary representatives in rural Ukrainian districts where Poles and Jews competed for the districts' second mandate. The alliance mobilised the Ukrainian and Jewish electorate around shared slogans and goals. It was a qualified success, leading to a more powerful national Ukrainian faction as well as the first Zionist faction in any European parliament. Although the two sides failed to repeat the alliance in the subsequent elections in 1911, the coalition sparked a new sense of history for both communities. It created a pro‐Ukrainian discourse in Jewish politics, and a pro‐Zionist one in Ukrainian politics. The alliance also exposes Zionism as a response to the European‐wide nationalist revivalism rather than a reaction to rampant turn‐of‐the‐century racial anti‐Semitism.     

Scottish Shire Elections: Preliminary Findings in Sheriff Court Books

Historians of the Scottish parliament have paid little attention to shire elections because of an apparent lack of local source material. This article explores some of the reasons for this perception and argues that sheriff court records contain considerably more evidence than has been appreciated hitherto. It demonstrates that these records provide details of the electoral process, the regularity of elections, the numbers of electors, external interference in elections and internal divisions within the electorate, local responses to national political events, and attitudes to representation through such things as levying taxes locally to reimburse representatives’ expenses. It challenges the once widely‐held view that the lesser nobility, who comprised the electorate, were uninterested in parliamentary participation, suggesting instead that the statute of 1587, by which shire representation was established, was reasonably successful. Finally, it considers the potential for further research in these and other records which, it is argued, will provide a much deeper understanding of 17th‐century Scotland's parliamentary history in particular and political history in general.     

Kuwait: Elections and Issues of Democratization in a Middle Eastern State

In 1992, elections were held in Kuwait to vote for the four-year assembly. The elections were essentially a compromise formula between two systems and political cultures in Kuwait: traditional hereditary rule and representative and modern forms. The successful conclusion of the election campaign, one of the most intensive in the history of Kuwait, may be the first step in the direction of much-needed political reform that may tilt the country more and more toward a true parliamentary system. The elections resulted in a victory for the opposition forces and their supporters, who together won thirty-five seats. For the first time in the history of Kuwait, government ministers can vote in parliament against a government-backed policy, should they feel the need to do so. Kuwait, as far as conditions allow today, is progressively shifting toward a parliamentary system. But, despite Kuwait's political steps forward, many questions and immense dangers still surround the democratic process.     

The dual endorsement in the federal electorate of Riverina, 1966

The dual endorsement in Riverina was the result of several circumstances: the Labor Party was unlikely to win the seat; Newman, though he agreed to contest the election, had no strong parliamentary ambition and no antipathy to a second candidate; the electorate was large enough to justify dividing the effort and expense of the campaign. In the face of these circumstances the State Executive, when pressed by the Electorate Council and the endorsed candidate, agreed to Solly's endorsement. However, political conditions proved to be unfavourable to Labor in the elections and the experiment of endorsing two candidates failed, or rather, was not properly put to the test, since it was not necessary to distribute preferences. Underlying this failure is the absence of any evidence to support the belief that the presence of two candidates will increase a party's vote. Since 1949, Labor's real problem in Riverina has been a lack of enough Labor voters—dual endorsement or not. It is probably unlikely that the A.L.P. will repeat the experiment of endorsing two candidates in the near future; perhaps even less likely that the curious circumstances in Riverina will occur in other electorates.     

Remeasuring and rethinking social cleavages in Russia: Continuity and changes in electoral geography 1917–1995

This paper examines the role of social cleavages in creating spatial associations between major pre-Revolutionary and post-Soviet political parties at the guberniya-level statistical aggregates. The paper begins with a theoretical discussion of social cleavages and a literature review of cleavage theory research applied to various Russian elections. The analysis of spatial associations between the pre-Revolutionary/post-Soviet parties involved elaborating a new measurement framework, creating a spatial database using GIS, transformation of thematic social–economic–geographic attributes, calculating the strength of the linear relationship among regional spatial units and utilizing probit statistical models. This research empirically supports the hypothesis that contemporary Russian parties are expressions of rediscovered cleavages as well as of conflicts engendered by the Tsarist and Soviet and post-Soviet periods of development. It appeared that the constituent assembly election of 1917 and parliamentary election of 1995 tend to be “maintaining” elections for the liberals. The situation appeared different for the communitarian parties. A critical realignment – significant changes in the left electorate and a split in this electorate did occur. The 1995 election results indicate that only parties with developed networks and local and regional organizations faired well in the election and that nationalization of Russian political life was still weak in 1995.     

‘The Best-Laid Schemes o’ Mice an’ Men’? Proposals,Planning, Defeat,and Legacy,of Devolution in the 1970s*

The question of whether devolved assemblies should be established for Scotland and Wales dominated considerable parliamentary time in the 1970s and became a key pillar of the Labour government's legislative agenda after the two 1974 general elections. The main building blocks of the government's devolution proposals for Scotland and Wales were in place from 1975 with the publication of the white paper, Our Changing Democracy, which outlined proposals for a primary lawmaking assembly for Scotland and a Scottish executive, operating under a ‘conferred powers model of devolution’. For Wales, the assembly was to be a body corporate (with no split between executive and assembly) exercising only executive functions and able only to pass secondary legislation. With some important modifications (including crucially the requirement for a referendum, which was then further amended to require a Yes tally equating to 40% of the electorates in both nations), these proposals were eventually incorporated into law as the Scotland and Wales Acts 1978. While the political debates surrounding devolution in this period are well known, less attention has been paid to the practical plans undertaken by the civil service for devolution to become a reality. Considerable time was spent drawing up, from an early stage, detailed preparations for devolution, particularly in Scotland. In Wales, planning was more tentative, yet, none the less, was taken seriously by the Welsh Office. These plans never materialised in the way envisaged, with neither Welsh nor Scottish devolution able to pass the referendum thresholds put in place. However, as this article also demonstrates, both the Scotland and Wales Acts had a constitutional legacy when devolution became reality under New Labour in the late 1990s.     

‘Sharing the white man's burden’ Nazi colonial revisionism and Australia's New‐Guinea mandate

ABSTRACT

The September 2014 general elections in Fiji resulted in a decisive victory for Prime Minister Bainimarama and his FijiFirst Party. It indicated a desire for stability on the part of the electorate as well as the popularity of measures such as ‘free’ education and the removal of affirmative action programmes for Indigenous Fijians. The Social Democratic Liberal Party garnered a significant portion of the Indigenous vote through appeals to ethnic identity, but will need to broaden its base in future to have any chance of forming a government. The high voter enrolment and participation reflects a hope for more accountability as well as transparency, in contrast to the arbitrariness of the previous eight years. New oversight institutions and a more expansive bill of rights in the constitution offer some ground for cautious optimism in the face of cynicism about the gap between the government's rhetoric and its actions.     

Pauline Hanson,the Mainstream,and Political Elites: The Place of Race in Australian Political Ideology

Pauline Hanson is well known for claiming that Australia's major political parties are out of touch with 'mainstream' Australia on issues related to race. Parallel surveys of the electorate and candidates in the 1996 federal election allow this claim to be tested, with items tapping general ideological dispositions, but including questions about Aboriginal Australians, immigration, and links with Asia. I make three critical findings: the electorate holds quite conservative opinions on these issues relative to the candidates, and is quite distant from ALP candidates in particular; attitudes on racial issues are a powerful component of the electorate's political ideology, so much so that any categorisation of Australian political ideology ignoring race must be considered incomplete; racial attitudes cut across other components of the electorate's ideology, placing all the parties under internal ideological strains, but the ALP appears particularly vulnerable on this score. The data show the coalition parties to be the net beneficiaries of the ideological tensions posed by race. Racial issues thus resemble a realigning ideological dimension, with possibly far-reaching consequences for the conduct of Australian electoral politics. Racism is as Australian as lamingtons and sausage rolls but the real political leader is the man or woman who can appeal to what Abraham Lincoln called 'the better angels of our nature'. Robert Hughes (Lamont 1996)     

Recent Research on “Incumbency Advantage” in House Elections: Part II

Research before 1978 on elections for U.S. Representative persistently raised the question of just what factors yield the advantage incumbents enjoy (Beth, 1982; Goldenberg and Traugott, 1980: 62; Fiorina, 1982: 35-38; Hinckley, 1980a: 645-646). To illuminate this question, the 1978 national election survey by Michigan's Center for Political Studies, taking the congressional district as the primary sampling unit, included extensive questions on voter contact with awareness of, and evaluation of, House candidates (Mann and Wolfinger, 1980: 133). A side effect of this design was uneven coverage of Senate races; it also happened that incumbents ran more strongly in sampled races than overall, and among respondents than in the electorate (Mann and Wolfinger: 133-136; Jacobson, 1981a: 240-242; 1981b: 185; Fiorina, 1982: 42). This essay surveys recent articles on the subject, especially those using this data.     

Continuous campaigning and electoral outcomes: The Liberal Democrats in Bath

From the 1950s onwards, David Butler and a number of co-authors of the Nuffield studies of British General Elections stressed the perceived futility of local campaigns, dismissing them as ritual, irrelevant exercises. During the 1990s, a new orthodoxy emerged. Using their own surrogate measure of campaigning, three groups of scholars found that the more intense a party's campaign in a constituency, relative to its opponents', the better its performance there. The significance of campaigning appears to vary across the country's three main political parties; however, it seems to be particularly important to the success of the Liberal Democrats. These findings are entirely consistent with arguments regarding the role and efficacy of local campaigning, but there remains a need for more direct evidence. If the traditionalists are correct, then local campaigning will have no impact on either turnout or the electoral performance of the party involved. If the ‘revisionists’ are correct, then where a party campaigns intensively it should be better able to identify and mobilise its core supporters, ensure that they turn out to vote, and thus improve its performance relative to its opponents. To evaluate these two arguments require data on where and how a party campaigns intensively, at local scales which can then be linked to electoral turnout data for those small areas. Such an evaluation is reported in this paper, using a case study of one ward in the City of Bath at the 1999 local government elections there.     

The Dynamics of the Electoral Geography of the Five Star Movement: The Role of Territorial Area and Municipality Size

ABSTRACT

The aim of the article is to trace the evolution of the Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement [M.5.S.]) over the last four national elections (the 2013 and 2018 general elections and the 2014 and 2019 European elections). In particular, our goal is to understand how the electoral support for the party changed, in the context of the broad transformations of the Italian electoral geography. In order to accomplish this goal, we investigate the explanatory role of the spatial dimension on electoral support, specifically in terms of geographical zone and municipality size. The M.5.S. is also compared with the two parties that reported the best results in the last European elections: the Lega (League) and the Partito Democratico (Democratic Party [P.D.]). Our results show that the recent European elections do not represent a turning point in the (electoral and geographical) history of the M.5.S.: its territorial rooting in the south of the country and in medium-sized municipalities are present from the 2014 European elections onwards. Interpretations and implications of these findings are discussed in the conclusions.