国外旅游发展促进经济增长假说（TLGH）研究综述

旅游发展作为经济增长过程的重要组成部分,其对经济增长的影响关系成为旅游经济学研究的核心内容。本文基于国外主流旅游经济学文献所认同的旅游发展促进经济增长假说（TLGH）,从方法论角度,分别就这种假说是否存在的时间序列数据分析、静态面板数据分析、动态面板数据分析与面板协整分析研究文献进行系统梳理。基本思路是,在总结国外研究文献对TLGH研究优劣势的基础上,据此初步揭示出TLGH研究框架的基本路径,并对我国TLGH研究的理论拓展与实证分析提出了相关建议。     

Modeling the Impact of Technological Innovation on Environmental Efficiency: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

Technological progress has widely been acknowledged as a key driver in the achievement of environmental sustainability, and a new concern has recently arisen for assessing the role of differences in regional innovation performances with respect to the pursuit of pollution targets. We investigate the impact of innovative activities on environmental efficiency at the regional level, adopting a spatial panel data approach to account for dependence between geographical observations and to get deeper insights into spatial knowledge spillovers arising from agglomeration economies. The spatial panel analysis covers 103 Italian provinces (equivalent to NUTS3 regions) on four major air pollutants (i.e., CO₂, CH₄, NMVOC, CO) over the 1995–2010 period. Our findings show that the state of local technology development, proxied by patents, has a positive impact on GDP emission efficiency and that its magnitude is higher for more localized pollutants as a result of larger spillover effects. Finally, to analyze the Italian North-South dualism of emission levels of pollutants, we offer a spillover effect study to emphasize the remarkable difference among effects in the territory. This calls for closer attention to the local relevance of the pollution damage when environmental impact of innovation strategies is to be evaluated.     

现代服务业集聚形成机理空间计量分析

在纳入空间效应前提下,构建现代服务业集聚形成机理空间面板计量模型,对我国28个省域相关数据实证研究表明:我国现代服务业集聚在省域之间有较强的空间依赖性和正的空间溢出效应。技术差异在时间维度上对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著,在空间维度上并不显著;交易费用与现代服务业集聚有显著的负相关性;知识溢出、规模经济、政府行为对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著。     

Extended depth of focus image for phytolith analysis

This paper proposes a new phytolith analysis method by extended depth of focus technology. The extended depth of focus image is sharp throughout by the image processing of a series of photos, while each acquisition of the original photo will be compromised and show certain parts of the specimen in and out of focus. Consequently, the extended depth of focus image is suitable for computer-assisted morphometrics analysis. Meanwhile, the extended depth of focus image can be used for three-dimensional reconstruction images. Experiments on rice husk multi-cell panel show that the three-dimensional reconstruction image method can reconstruct multiple double-peaked phytoliths at one time. We also measure the parameters of multiple double-peaked phytoliths from the reconstructed three-dimension image. Comparative experiments show that the reconstructed three-dimensional image is precise enough for rice identification. Based on the above experiments, we recommend the extended depth of focus method as a promising tool in phytolith research.     

Dendrochronological dating of wooden artifacts by measuring the tree rings using magnifying glass and photography-assisted method: an example of a Dutch panel painting

Dendrochronology, an analysis of tree rings, is a commonly used method for dating wooden structures in archaeological remains and historical objects. Fascinating subjects of examination are the historical oil paintings on oak panels. Here, we applied a tree ring analysis on three boards of a Dutch painting from the Sinebrychoff Art Museum (Helsinki). Tree rings were measured using the conventional lens-assisted method, in addition to the photography-based approach, where the widths of the rings were determined from digital enlargements of the photos. These two methods produced comparable tree ring series. The lens- and photography-based records of the measured panel exhibited higher agreement with each other than the conventional, lens-based, record against the different master chronologies. Dendrochronological cross-dating against the master chronology showed that the rings of the panel represent the period ad 1413–1620. Cross-dating was attained by comparing the tree ring series of the panel painting with the previously published chronologies obtained from timber transported from the historical ports of the Eastern Baltic Sea to Western Europe. Photography appears as a promising method to be used for dendrochronological investigations of archaeological and historical objects, alongside the conventional methods. We note that the importance of using photographs of tree ring cross sections was highlighted already in the 1930s. In the digital era, the photographic approach shows obvious benefits for archival purposes and remeasuring the rings, with additional future prospects of image processing and analyses.     

我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系研究——基于1978-2007年东、中、西部、东北地区面板数据

本文选取1978-2007年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验及误差修正模型对我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系进行了检验。实证结果表明:从全国来看,城市化是经济增长的长短期原因,但经济增长是城市化的长短期原因均无法得到证实;东部地区的城市化与经济增长的长短期均互为因果关系;对于中、西部、东北地区而言,城市化是经济增长的长期原因,但不是其短期原因,长短期内经济增长都不是城市化的原因。     

Elk Heads at Sea: Maritime Hunters and Long‐Distance Boat Journeys in Late Stone Age Fennoscandia

Tumlehed is the most well‐preserved and complex prehistoric rock painting in the coastal region of south‐west Sweden. Originally reported and described in 1974, we re‐documented the panel using digital and IR photography, DStretch image enhancement software, and non‐destructive PXRF spectroscopy. This re‐documentation revealed a more complex image inventory with several previously unknown motifs and image details. The new data provide a better basis for identifying motif categories, the organization of the panel, the chronological sequence, and different frequentation periods. We report on the only known boats with an elk‐head stem in southern and western Scandinavian rock art, the emergence of rock art boat depictions in the region, and evidence for long‐distance maritime journeys and sea‐mammal hunting in the later Stone Age. Comparisons to similar images with shoreline data in Fennoscandia narrow the time range for the date of the painting to 4200–2500 BC.     

ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC CAPITAL STOCK USING THE NEG WAGE EQUATION: A SPATIAL PANEL DATA APPROACH

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1985–2004, a period that is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that time. The underlying model used for the data analysis is based on the wage equation, which is one of a handful of simultaneous equations which when satisfied correspond to the short‐run equilibrium of New Economic Geography (NEG) theory. This is estimated using various spatial panel models with either fixed or random effects to allow for individual heterogeneity. Using these models, we find consistent evidence that productivity depends directly on the public capital stock endowment of each province, but also there is evidence of negative spillover effects from changes in capital stock in neighboring provinces.     

Seismic Demand on Shear Panel Dampers Installed in Steel-Framed Bridge Pier Structures

This study is aimed at investigating the demand on shear panel dampers (SPDs) installed in steel structures under strong earthquake motions to serve as guidance for the recommended capacity of SPDs in seismic design. For this purpose, an extensive dynamic analysis is carried out on steel bridge pier structures with SPD devices. To describe the restoring force characteristics of SPDs, the analysis uses a newly developed combined hardening model based on experimental data. The seismic demands made on SPD devices are examined and then summarized to give recommended values for determining the necessary deformation capacity of SPDs.     

Beam-Column Joint Model for Nonlinear Analysis of Non-Seismically Detailed Reinforced Concrete Frame

An efficient and simplified plane beam-column joint model that can describe the strength deterioration, stiffness degradation, and pinching effect was developed for the nonlinear analysis of non-seismically detailed reinforced concrete frames. The proposed beam-column joint model is a super-element consisting of eight spring components and one panel zone component, representing the bond-slip mechanism of the longitudinal reinforcement and the shear deformation mechanism of the joint concrete core region, respectively. In order to represent the dynamic response at the system level, the elastic constitutive law is applied to the eight connector springs, while the Bouc-Wen-Baber-Noori (BWBN) model is adopted to describe the hysteretic behavior of the panel zone component. For the implementation of the finite element analysis, the algorithmically consistent tangent of the BWBN model is derived as a uni-axial constitutive model, while the initial stiffness of the panel zone component is determined by the concrete compression strut assumption. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed beam-column joint model were calibrated at both the component and structural levels by comparing the simulated results with the experimental data for non-seismically detailed joint sub-assemblages and a reinforced concrete plane frame.     

Behavior of Single-Story Lightweight Panel Building Under Lateral Loads

Construction of lightweight structures is needed to reduce the earthquake effects on the buildings. Lightweight wall panels fabricated from polystyrene, steel, and shotcrete concrete are recently used in some countries such as USA and China to construct low-rise, lightweight buildings up to three stories. In the literature, there is no enough data on the behavior of this new panel building system during earthquakes. In this technical note, a half-scale model of a single-story building constructed in the laboratory using this panel materials and the same construction technique used in practice were tested under lateral loads. Although the lateral loads were increased to four times higher load levels than the design earthquake loads, only minor fine cracks have been observed on the surfaces. The technical note documents the details of the test program, including specimen properties, test setup, instrumentation, and test procedure. Test results and major observations are also presented and discussed.     

THESE ROCKS WERE MADE FOR WALKING: ROCK ART AT LEIRFALL,TRØNDELAG,NORWAY

One of the largest sites with Bronze Age type rock art in Norway is found at Leirfall in Stjørdal, Nord‐Trøndelag. The site, which consists of five panels, is dominated by footprints but at the same time a great variety of motifs is present. The footprints seem to lure visitors to walk from panel to panel, even across the panels, which are located at three different levels. The main focus is on the middle level, where the main panel (Leirfall III) contains more than 700 rock carvings. The walks between and around the panels are described; at the same time the Leirfall rock carvings are seen in a wider context. Most footprints are likely to represent children and it is argued that the site was used for the performance of public rites during initiations. However, symbols normally found only on decorated grave cists are present, too, particularly on the upper panel, which cannot be seen from below. Death rituals may also have been performed.     

Airport delays and metropolitan employment

This study provides the first empirical assessment of the impact airline delays have on urban employment. While previous works have suggested that road congestion can slow down regional development, the influence of air traffic delays on metro‐level jobs has not been examined comprehensively. The present study uses a nine‐year panel of quarterly data, which covers passenger airline traffic and delays at airports across urban areas in the United States. The panel also includes data on total and industry‐specific employment at the metropolitan‐area level. Our empirical estimates of the impact of air traffic on total employment are comparable to previously reported measures in the literature. However, we find that service‐sector employment is less sensitive to air traffic than other studies suggested. We provide new evidence confirming that delays have a negative effect on employment, a finding that is robust to various specifications of our empirical model. Our results indicate that a 10 percent increase in the number of delayed flights leads to up to a 0.15 percent decrease in total and service‐sector employment, a 0.47 percent decline in leisure and hospitality employment, and a 0.7 percent reduction in the employment level of goods‐producing jobs.     

Spatial analysis of bureaucrats’ attempts to resist political capture in a developing democracy: The distribution of solar panels in Ghana

Can civil servants in a developing democracy successfully resist political capture in the distribution of public goods? Existing research tends to highlight political patronage logics of distribution, and scholarship focuses primarily on politicians’ motivations. But service decisions are often made by bureaucrats, who sometimes explicitly try to avoid capture and allocate on the basis of need. Using qualitative interviews and spatial regressions with geo-coded data from a solar panel program in Ghana, we examine such a situation. We show that, despite considerable efforts to thwart it, national-level civil servants were unable to fully resist political capture. While solar panel distribution partially corresponded to need for electricity, we find that panels also went to areas where voter turnout was historically inconsistent, likely to motivate voter turnout. The direction of these relationships was consistent across subnational space, but the magnitudes varied considerably and were strongest in districts adjacent to Lake Volta. Qualitative data analysis reveals that this subnational variation reflects the logistics of space and the historical politics of place. The article contributes to theories of distributive politics and of voting behavior, and highlights the need for subnational disaggregation across space.     

我国旅游业发展与经济增长的关系研究——基于不同省份的个体数据和面板数据分析

本文利用个体数据和面板数据的VAR模型和格兰奇因果检验,分析我国各个省份和不同经济区域的旅游业发展与经济增长的关系。基本结论是：从面板数据分析来看,总体上二者之间存在一种长期均衡和双向因果关系,但旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献要小于经济增长对旅游业发展的贡献;我国不同经济区域之间二者的因果关系表现出较强的地理差异性,东部发达地区“经济增长对旅游业发展的影响”远大于“旅游业发展对经济增长的影响”,中部地区次之,西部地区因果关系正好相反,东北地区为“经济增长影响旅游业发展”的单向因果关系;从单个省份的格兰奇因果关系看,仅13个省市的LGDP和LTOUR之间存在长期均衡关系,大部分省份存在双向因果关系,但在影响强度上有较大差异。     

中国外商投资区位选择的时空格局与影响因素

以中国274个地市为样本,引入空间分析和计量模型等方法,分析外资分布特点及影响因素,结果表明：①中国目前尚不存在大规模外资"逃离"现象,外资利用总量在波动中上升,结构趋于优化。②空间上由集聚集中趋向分散均衡,呈"北进西移"态势,东部高度集中,中西部发展较快。外资高值集聚区逐渐向北推进,低值区向西南收缩;③劳动力成本、市场规模、专业化经济、FDI累积、市场化水平和开放度均对外资有正向作用。其中,传统因素对外资的吸引作用正逐渐下降,FDI累积的作用上升明显,集聚对外资分布作用显著。从不同区域看,集聚经济和FDI累积效应等新经济地理因素在东部外资区位选择中受到更多的关注,而劳动力成本、基础设施、开放水平等传统因素在中西部吸引外资中作用更大。④中国应遵循因地制宜、因时制宜的原则制定差异化的外资政策。     

Anticipating the Next Half‐Century of Geographical Analysis

Prompted by a series of panel sessions at a recent American Association of Geographers annual meeting entitled “A Globe‐Shaped Crystal Ball: The Next Fifty Years of Geographical Analysis,” participants were asked to speculate on the future of the journal, which of course has broader implications for spatial and geographic analytics. In what follows, I provide my thoughts on the journal as a reader, contributor, referee, and former editor of Geographical Analysis. The major points touched upon include the following. First, application to address substantive concerns will come to dominate the field. Second, the spatial data deluge will continue unabated, but will lead to important advances because of better detail and less abstraction of reality. Third, analytical methods will evolve specifically for big data. Fourth, the point‐and‐click revolution will result in ever more use of spatial analytics, but also will lend itself to greater and more widespread abuse of these methods. Fifth, addressing assumptions and theoretical foundations of long utilized approaches will revolutionize a new generation of spatial analytics. Sixth, geographic uncertainty and bias will be more than an afterthought, and methods will emerge to support meaningful analysis. Finally, spatial optimization will have increased prominence in fundamental analysis, particularly associated with establishing and evaluating significance.