A Spatial Prior for Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models

In this paper we develop a Bayesian prior motivated by cross-sectional spatial autoregressive models for use in time-series vector autoregressive forecasting involving spatial variables. We compare forecast accuracy of the proposed spatial prior to that from a vector autoregressive model relying on the Minnesota prior and find a significant improvement. In addition to a spatially motivated prior variance as in LeSage and Pan (1995) we develop a set of prior means based on spatial contiguity. A Theil-Goldberger estimator may be used for the proposed model making it easy to implement.     

Generalizing Impact Computations for the Autoregressive Spatial Interaction Model

We extend the impact decomposition proposed by LeSage and Thomas-Agnan (2015) in the spatial interaction model to a more general framework, where the sets of origins and destinations can be different, and where the relevant attributes characterizing the origins do not coincide with those of the destinations. These extensions result in three flow data configurations which we study extensively: the square, the rectangular, and the noncartesian cases. We propose numerical simplifications to compute the impacts, avoiding the inversion of a large filter matrix. These simplifications considerably reduce computation time; they can also be useful for prediction. Furthermore, we define local measures for the intra, origin, destination and network effects. Interestingly, these local measures can be aggregated at different levels of analysis. Finally, we illustrate our methodology in a case study using remittance flows all over the world.     

THE ENDURING PUBLIC STRUGGLE TO CONSTRUCT,CONTROL, AND CHALLENGE HISTORICAL MEMORIES

Sumit Guha's History and Collective Memory in South Asia, 1200–2000 develops important arguments about the public significance of historical knowledge and the essential role of historians in public life. All societies need collective memories to sustain their cultural identities, as Guha shows in this wide‐ranging account of how such memories have been constructed in South Asian societies since the thirteenth century. The knowledge of historical experts is increasingly challenged or derided by contemporary social groups and political activists, who circulate their own historical narratives via new networks of communication. Political uses of historical knowledge are not new, however, as Guha shows in detailed accounts of how Hindu, Muslim, and British imperial regimes all used historical narratives to justify their own power. He also explains how other social groups challenged official historical narratives with their own popular stories about the past. This book contributes to recent work in global intellectual history by comparing similarities in the historical practices of premodern Europe and South Asia, discussing the cross‐cultural exchanges in colonial‐era institutions, and describing postcolonial challenges to European ideas. Guha thus offers an insightful analysis of how social and political forces influence and respond to the cloistered institutions that produce historical knowledge and construct collective memories. He concludes that evidence‐based historical narratives must be continually defended amid current public assaults on historical knowledge in both South Asia and the United States. More generally, Guha's book suggests the need for ongoing analysis of how public events, social conflicts, and new communication systems can reshape or discredit the work of historical experts.     

INTERPRETING SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ORIGIN‐DESTINATION FLOW MODELS

Spatial interaction or gravity models have been used to model flows that take many forms, for example population migration, commodity flows, traffic flows, all of which reflect movements between origin and destination regions. We focus on how to interpret estimates from spatial autoregressive extensions to the conventional regression‐based gravity models that relax the assumption of independence between flows. These models proposed by LeSage and Pace ( 2008 , 2009 ) define spatial dependence involving flows between regions. We show how to calculate partial derivative expressions for these models that can be used to quantify these various types of effect that arise from changes in the characteristics/explanatory variables of the model.     

中国人口地理学研究的回顾与展望

中国人口地理学直至20世纪30年代前后才形成。新中国成立后,开始得以发展。自党的十一届三中全会后,因贯彻改革开放的方针,促进了人口地理学的蓬勃发展。文章最后,展望了人口地理学的发展趋势。     

参与式摄影在西方人文地理学中的应用和启示

参与式摄影在近十年来受到西方人文地理学研究的关注。这种研究方法要求被研究者在给定的主题下主动拍摄照片或视频，以具象化其日常生活和活动路径，从而展现其动态的、身体化的、非表征化的行为过程。这一方法不仅能促使研究者和被研究者之间的有效沟通，还能唤起被研究者的情感和记忆，从而促进调研的开展。本研究通过对西方人文地理学研究中相关文献的梳理，对参与式摄影的主要类型、步骤及其在西方人文地理学研究中的应用范围、优势和局限性等进行了介绍，并梳理了参与式摄影在西方人文地理学研究中的应用价值和意义。在此基础上，本研究指出国内未来研究可应用参与式摄影方法的三个方向：①边缘群体和少数族群的地方感及其对地方意义的建构；②日常生活和微观空间地理研究；③社会现象和生活环境的变化对人们地方认同的影响。     

LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF NONCOINTEGRATED AND COINTEGRATED REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Johansen's (1988) multivariate test for cointegration is first applied to four models involving quarterly state data and five variables, along with a national model based on Friedman and Kuttner's (1992) model of money demand, which uses three variables. Each regional model consists of frequently used national and state series, for which theory suggests the possible cointegration of several series pairs. Beginning with all five series, however, one state model is found to be cointegrated over each of 20 successive estimation intervals. The money demand model and one state model are not cointegrated over the same intervals. In the cointegrated case, five-year experimental forecasts show that error correction mechanism (ECM) and Bayesian ECM models outperform all other approaches. More importantly, forecasting performance improves further by respecifying the ECM model based on three cointegrated series pairs rather than the five-component cointegrating vector. For the two noncointegrated systems, the first-difference model suggested by the cointegration/ error correction literature is far superior to VAR in levels over both shortand long-term horizons.     

CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTING THEM

A second paper devoted to problems of predicting the future level of the Caspian Sea attempts, as did the first, to discount overly simplistic explanations for its nearly century-long decline and recent slight rise. Long-term climatic changes within the drainage basin of the Caspian and the resultant change in discharge of tributary rivers are proposed as the basic mechanism controlling sea level fluctuations and not, as argued in the popular press, tectonic movements, groundwater discharge variations, or the damming of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol. Various models for predicting future levels are compared, although no specific forecasts are made (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

场所叙事及其对于城市文化特色与认同性建构探索——以上海滨水历史地段更新为例

论文综述了国内外关于场所的相关理论研究,提出了一种城市文化特色塑造的基础性的新方法"场所叙事"。论文阐述了相关的定义与内容,探索了城市文化特色与其认同性建构的场所叙事策略与路径。相比传统基于物质形象塑造模式,场所叙事更倾向于将场所中隐含的非物质的社会文化信息展现到物质空间之中,来凸显城市亚文化;同时,场所叙事提供了一种跨学科的框架来建构文化认同,培育场所与人之间的和谐关系。此外,论文对上海滨水历史街区"老码头"更新进行考查,从场所叙事角度,来诠释与验证其策略在历史街区重构中的适用性。本文的贡献在于为当下中国城镇化进程中塑造城市地域文化特色提供了新思路。     

Genocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020

We assess the accuracy of genocide forecasts made by the Atrocity Forecasting Project (AFP) for 2011–15, and present new forecasts for 2016–20. Using data from the United Nations, Genocide Watch and the Political Instability Task Force, we evaluate AFP accuracy. We compare AFP accuracy with that of forecasts from the Genocide Prevention Advisory Network. It is relatively rare in most areas of social science that researchers produce (and make public) future forecasts. It is rarer still to evaluate their accuracy once the future has arrived. AFP five-year forecasts are potentially important for genocide and politicide prevention, and have gained attention from policy makers and news media, but a systematic assessment of their accuracy has not been undertaken previously. Our evaluation of past forecast accuracy, with true-positive rates from thirty-three to fifty per cent, true-negative rates around ninety per cent, and area under the curve (AUC) statistics from .81 to .96, gives an indication of how much confidence should be placed in the 2016–20 forecasts.     

新时期的新疆人口问题及其调控对策

西部大开发战略给新疆发展带来了难得的历史机遇,人口作为PRED的重要组成部分,对新疆的开发和实施可持续发展具有十分重要的作用。本文详细分析了新疆人口的空间分布特点及其时间变化态势,并运用系统动力学模型对未来人口的变化趋势和绿洲人口合理容量进行了模拟仿真,提出了人口增长的高中低三个方案,在分析了人口增长过快所带来问题的基础上,提出了相应的对策建议。     

世界热点地区的形成原因和主要地缘政治特征

本文通过对当前世界热点地区形成原因的分析,着重探讨了这些热点地区的主要地缘政治特征,并预测了这些地区未来的发展趋势。     

Simulating Sources of Uncertainty in Policy Forecasting with a Large-Scale Regional Econometric Model

Long-term forecasts may be helpful in establishing the general framework for a region's policy agenda, and a well-structured economic model offers an opportunity to identify major policy instruments affecting a region's long-term growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of long-term forecasts should serve to caution policymakers in interpreting and acting upon such information. To offer perspective on this aspect of forecasts, simulations of the Pittsburgh economy are performed to the year 1995 using a large-scale regional econometric model. The forecasts are based on alternative assumptions concerning the performance of the national economy and the objective conditions characterizing key industries in the region. In this way, the model is used to identify and quantify several major sources of uncertainty in long-term regional forecasts.     

Remembering and forgetting 1974: the 2011 Brisbane floods and memories of an earlier disaster

The city of Brisbane, capital of the Australian state of Queensland, sits on a floodplain and has been struck by two devastating flood disasters in the last 50 years. This article contributes to the growing literature on disaster memory by tracing memories of a flood in 1974 as they were constructed and re‐enacted in a more recent disaster in 2011. The article examines how disaster memories shape local identities and considers how such memories influence policy and local knowledge, doing so by reference to an analysis of three forms of memory media—personal narratives, news media reporting, and built memorials. At times, memories of 1974 enabled Brisbane residents to prepare for an oncoming flood and to understand the scope of the 2011 event. Yet other memories produced a form of forgetting by positioning the earlier flood as a successfully navigated event now safely contained in the past. Findings from the analysis thus point to the importance of understanding memories of past disasters as a critical element of disaster planning and management.     

Regional Occupational Employment Projections: Modeling Supply Constraints in the Direct‐Requirements Approach*

Detailed industry‐occupation employment forecasts are an important class of regional labor market information produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In theory, the forecasts should improve the national, interregional, and intertemporal matching efficiency of labor markets. But the efficiency argument is dependent on the quality of the forecasts. The methodology used to produce the projections is still fundamentally a demand‐requirements approach that implicitly assumes that labor supply is infinitely elastic for every occupation. This paper examines the validity of that assumption and evaluates a demographically based labor supply module as an adjunct to the current methodology.     

中国报刊生产的空间特征与区域发展趋势预测

报刊的出版发行工作的效果与报刊生产地的空间区位密切相关。目前国内外地理学界对此问题的研究见诸文字的还不多见,这一研究领域急待发展。本文分析了我国报刊生产空间分布特征,划分了报刊生产的空间功能类型区;进行了报刊生产的区域发展趋势预测。     

Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia

The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a crucial element of any set of subnational population forecasts. However, subnational forecasts are currently prepared using deterministic models, which fail to properly address the issue of demographic uncertainty. The traditional high, medium, and low variants approach employed by many national statistical offices poses a number of problems. Probabilistic population forecasting models have the potential to overcome many of these problems, but these models have so far been limited to national-level forecasts. This article reports a first attempt to implement a probabilistic approach to subnational population forecasting using a biregional projection framework. The article sets out the forecasting framework, outlines the approach adopted to formulate each of the assumptions, and presents probabilistic forecasts for 2002–2051 for Queensland and the rest of Australia. The forecasts show a two-thirds probability that Queensland's population in 2051 will be between 5.4 and 7.7 million while the same range for the rest of the country is 18.6 and 22.7 million. The forecasts quantify to what extent greater uncertainty exists about the demographic future at the subnational compared with the national scale.     

Coming to Terms with the Stasi: History and Memory in the Bautzen Memorial

This paper examines the role played by the encounter of history and personal memories in the difficult process of coming to terms with the Stasi in present-day eastern Germany. While historians have made substantial progress over the last two decades in accounting for the wide range of ways in which the German Democratic Republic (GDR) is remembered by East Germans, the memorials and museums of the reunified Germany remain unable to integrate memories of dictatorial oppression and happiness in everyday life. Sites commemorating state repression are thus often assumed to lack impact on former GDR citizens whose memories differ from official versions of history. These assumptions are tested for the Bautzen Memorial, formerly known as the ‘celebrities’ prison' of the East German Ministry of State Security. Focusing on the differing receptions of GDR memorial sites, this article draws on interviews with two former political prisoners and with visitors to the Memorial who grew up in socialist East Germany. It argues that the open approach of the Memorial, which leaves visitors to draw their own conclusions from the exhibition, allows different stakeholders to find ways of personal engagement with the past at the site despite the disparities with their own memories.     

Remembrance of Things Passed: Memory,Body and the Politics of Feasting in New Ireland,Papua New Guinea1

This paper explores the connection between body and memory for the people of the Lelet Plateau of central New Ireland. Through an examination of the processes by which memories of mortuary feasts are created and circulated, I draw attention to the embodied nature of memory as a central facet in the politics of feasting. The approach taken here differs from other prevailing approaches to the body and memory in its exploration of the ways in which memories are created through and within the body, rather than seeing the body, or things representing the body, as signs that are utilised for remembering. In particular, I examine the forms of sorcery which target the participants' bodies, making them experience diarrhoea as a mnemonic process. It is through this that a significant memory of the feast is created, one which stands out notably from numerous other memories, and is the means by which remembrance of the event is transformed into fame for the host.     

Rural communities and small area forecasting: some examples from South Australia

This paper demonstrates and evaluates two different but complementary methodologies of small area forecasting in a rural area some 80 km north of Adelaide. The first approach forecasts overall population trends using a sector-by-sector appraisal of the growth/decline prospects of each economic sector based on detailed field surveys carried out in 1968 and 1970. The second approach was to use the readily available 1971 census and corresponding vital statistics data to project the population of the study area using a simple cohort-component projection methodology. Both approaches made forecasts of expected population levels by 1980, and in that year the authors conducted a resurvey of the same study area. The article demonstrates the need for, and results of, regular updating of the assumptions on which population forecasts are made, for the period 1968–1980 includedan unexpected revival of the farm economy as well as the onset of the international urban-rural migration flow of the ‘population turnaround’. Neither of these trends had been foreseen in the initial forecasts; their effects are shown in the results of the 1980 resurvey, and the utility of the forecasting methodologies is discussed in the light of these findings.