A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES APPROACHES TO MODELING INTERSECTORAL AND INTERCOUNTY EMPLOYMET LINKAGES IN RURAL REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT. The performance of five criteria for identifying significant interregional labor market linkages is compared. The criteria suggest differential model specifications based on the implicit tradeoff between parsimony and specification bias. Models were specified using: Akaike's final prediction error; Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion; an input-output model; Aoki's time series algorithm; and a combined input-outputi/time series approach. Models of the changes in monthly employment for twelve industries in six regions in northeastern Utah were specified using each criterion. Models based on Schwarz's criterion and the input-output criterion were preferred to those based on other criteria.     

A NON-GAUSSIAN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF RURAL RETAIL BUSINESS COUNTS*

ABSTRACT. Determinants of the number of retail firms serving a rural area have been investigated by drawing on demand threshold analysis to analyze cross-sectional data. The relevance of such studies to an individual community may be limited if it is characterized by differential levels or unique types of economic activity. Alternatively, conducting the analysis using time-series data on an individual community may lead to problems associated with non-normal and nonstationary data. These problems are addressed by formulating a state-space model of time-series count data. The discrete, nonnegative nature of count data is accommodated by using a conjugate prior for the Poisson location parameter. A guide function is used to link the prior to the state vector and Bayes rules are used for updating.     

DETECTION OF ANCIENT MARBLE FORGERY: TECHNIQUES AND LIMITATIONS*

Since 1960, scientific results have replaced aesthetic judgements in marble authentication studies and the technology to perform analytical tests on micro‐samples has developed rapidly. However, no single method can be used to determine the authenticity of a piece of marble. A ‘detective‐like’ investigation is usually adopted by using optical microscopy, ultraviolet‐induced fluorescence, provenance determination techniques and mineralogical, chemical and morphological analyses of the patina. A newly proposed thermoluminescence methodology calculates the ‘burial age’ of recently excavated objects or distinguishes artefacts exposed to sunlight since antiquity from those exposed recently. The technique shows a lot of potential; however, much work remains to be done.     

THE TIME OF POLITICS,THE POLITICS OF TIME,AND POLITICIZED TIME: AN INTRODUCTION TO CHRONOPOLITICS

Time is so deeply interwoven with all aspects of politics that its centrality to the political is frequently overlooked. For one, politics has its own times and rhythms. Secondly, time can be an object and an instrument of politics. Thirdly, temporal attributes are used not only to differentiate basic political principles but also to legitimize or delegitimize politics. Finally, politics aims at realizing futures in the present or preventing them from materializing. Consequently, the relationship between politics and time encompasses a broad spectrum of phenomena and processes that cry out for historicization. In our introduction to this History and Theory theme issue on chronopolitics, we argue that the concept of chronopolitics makes it possible to do this and, in the process, to move the operation of rethinking historical temporalities from the periphery toward the center of historiographical attention as well as to engage in a dialogue with scholars from a wide range of disciplines. To this end, we propose a broad concept of chronopolitics by discussing existing definitions, by distinguishing between three central dimensions of chronopolitics (the time of politics, the politics of time, and politicized time), and by systematizing possible approaches to studying chronopolitics.     

A TURNING POINT IN THEORY OF HISTORY: THE PLACE OF HAYDEN WHITE IN THE HISTORY OF METAHISTORY

This article intends to place Hayden White's reflection on the basic principles of meaning-construction in history into the historical context of modern historical studies. It first presents the self-understanding of professional historians in which they emphasize the academic (wissenschaftlichen) character of the discipline. In this way of reflection, the traditional (premodern) interpretation of history as a part of rhetoric was pushed back and replaced by methodological argumentation about the rules of research (with an emphasis on source critique). Historiography, or the presentation of the results of research in a narrative form, was not completely neglected, but was not widely recognized. After the analytical insight into the narrative form of historical knowledge, significant discussion of the principles of historical thinking dramatically changed from the issue of research to that of representation (historiography). Hayden White's Metahistory (1973) marked this change paradigmatically. It turned the shift from rhetoric to science in its contrary direction: a new turn to rhetoric was proclaimed. This new anti-turn set off a hitherto unanswered question as to how research methodology should be treated. Source critique was not refuted but did not attract significant attention. The research procedure of interpretation, in contrast, was met by a new understanding and interest: it was identified as representation by the linguistic procedures of meaning-construction. Its role as a part of historical method, however, was completely ignored. The article ends with a still unresolved problem of metahistory, namely the relationship between interpretation and representation. They are not identical, but are closely related. Their synthesis and their differences have to be systematically inquired into and reflected upon if metahistory is to step forward and engage in this task. Then the merits of White's return to rhetoric will be appreciated as well as its one-sidedness criticized, before a further step is taken.     

ON STATISTICAL APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF CERAMIC ARTEFACTS USING GEOCHEMICAL AND PETROGRAPHIC DATA*

The scientific analysis of ceramics often has the aim of identifying groups of similar artefacts. Much published work focuses on analysis of data derived from geochemical or mineralogical techniques. The former is more likely to be subjected to quantitative statistical analysis. This paper examines some approaches to the statistical analysis of data arising from both kinds of techniques, including ‘mixed‐mode’ methods where both types of data are incorporated into analysis. The approaches are illustrated using data derived from 88 Late Bronze Age transport jars from Kommos, Crete. Results suggest that the mixed‐mode approach can provide additional insight into the data.     

SOCIAL SCIENCE AND SOCIAL POLICY: ROLES OF THE APPLIED RESEARCHER*

Research on policy impact has increasingly focused on the practical application of social science research. This paper outlines four roles—substantive expert, information processor, change agent, and scholar—which have helped to increase the potential usefulness of our research while maintaining linkages to the academic community. This paper suggests the general nature of these roles and suggests specific implementation strategies, which need to be pursued as an early and continuing aspect of the research enterprise. Balancing these multiple roles presents several analytical and ethical difficulties, but helps to establish credibility in both the scientific and policymaking communities.     

X-RAY MICROANALYSIS OF ANCIENT GLASSY MATERIALS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF WAVELENGTH DISPERSIVE AND ENERGY DISPERSIVE TECHNIQUES*

Sensitivity, precision and accuracy of quantitative microanalysis of major, minor and trace elements present in ancient glasses by energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS) is compared to that by wavelength dispersive spectrometry (WDS). Although there are certain problems with EDS due to peak overlaps and background noise, the precision and minimum detection limits of EDS for most of the important elements in ancient glasses were found to compare favourably to those of WDS. Both EDS and WDS, when quantified by comparison to glass standards, can produce reliable results which are adequate for most technological questions.     

MULTISENSOR GEOPHYSICAL SURVEY RESULTS FROM THE PINE TREE MOUND SITE: A COMPARISON OF GEOPHYSICAL AND EXCAVATION DATA

Abstract

A multisensor geophysical investigation of portions of the Pine Tree Mound site (41HS15) located in Harrison County, Texas, was conducted prior to large-scale block excavations there. The investigation included electrical resistance, magnetic field gradient, and ground-penetrating radar surveys. The geophysical survey and subsequent excavations were undertaken in an effort to mitigate the effects of coal mining operations on the site. This article presents the results of our geophysical investigations and describes an online data analysis tool created with the intention of simplifying interpretation of these complex multivariate data and making these data available to a broad audience. The article also compares the geophysical signal response with excavation results from the site. Sources of uncertainty in both data sets are discussed, and possible reasons for observed incongruities between the geophysical and excavation data are explored. We end by making recommendations for innovative ground truthing methods that might allow us to more definitively interpret geophysical data in the future.     

WORKER DISPLACEMENT AND JOB-SEARCH: A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL IMPEDIMENTS TO REEMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. This study investigates the human, and in turn the regional, consequences of industrial restructuring in the United States. Our methodology presumes that labor market outcomes of displaced workers can provide considerable information on the structural properties of local labor markets, and subsequently upon the capacity of such areas/regions to reemploy additional workers. The examination follows two steps. In the first, a multivariate model of reemployment likelihood is developed and subsequently estimated. Separate equations are obtained for various resons of the country, a disaggregation that permits one to identify how postdisplacement reemployment, and its determinants, vary systematically across space. In the second step, the above estimates are decomposed into two elements, one of which is reflective of regional structural conditions. Based upon this methodology and estimates obtained in the first step, regions of the country are compared as to magnitude of their structural economic problems, and thus as to their capacity to gainfully reemploy additional workers displaced by plant closure or relocation.     

TIME AND TEMPERATURE: A MODEL OF TEMPORAL INTERRELATIONSHIPS

"Nothing puzzles me more than time and space; and yet nothing troubles me less, as I never think about them." (Charles Lamb, 1810)     

CONVRT: A COMPUTER PROGRAM FOR THE CONVERSION OF FREE-FIELD DATA TO FIXED-FIELD DATA FORMAT

Abstract

Historians of the U.S. Congress often draw claims from interpretations of legislators’ rhetoric and the outcomes of key votes. In this article, the author tells a cautionary tale: Such strategies ignore the correspondence between roll-call voting on select issues and broader coalitional structures in Congress. He does so by examining contrary positions about a key issue during the New Deal: On the one hand, some researchers claim that reasoned congressional deliberation on the issue of administrative oversight was separate from the prevailing legislative concerns of the day. Other scholars, on the other hand, assert that the prevailing issue dimensions in Congress included administrative oversight. Using a Bayesian measurement method, Ordinary Least Squares, and probit regression, and a novel selection of roll-call data, the author tested these claims, concluding that broader coalitional structures subsumed issues of administration.