An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983 1. Migration Probabilities

This is part one of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

AMENITIES VERSUS LABOR MARKET OPPORTUNITIES: CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL DISTANCE TO MOVE*

ABSTRACT. A recent debate in the regional economics literature has focused attention on the motivation behind an individual's decision to migrate. Human-capital migration models emphasize labor market disequilibria whereas alternative (hedonic) migration models stress households’altered demand for nontraded goods. In this paper, we test the relative importance of these two possible motivations for moving between metropolitan areas. We use an intercity hedonic model to decompose wages into equilibrium and disequilibrium components. We then compare the separate influences of amenities and the disequilibrium component of wages on the distance moved between two metropolitan areas. Our findings indicate that both economic factors and amenity differentials are significant factors in explaining regional migration.     

珠三角流动人口家庭化迁移特征及影响因素研究——基于家庭生命周期视角

流动人口家庭化迁移有利于家庭质量和生活幸福感的提升，对推进我国“以人为本”的新型城镇化具有重要意义。本文基于家庭生命周期理论，以珠三角流动人口核心家庭为研究对象，分析处于不同家庭生命周期流动人口的基本属性特征、家庭化迁移特征及影响因素。研究发现：①不同家庭生命周期流动人口的基本属性同质性与差异性并存。②未育夫妻家庭中夫妻分居现象严重，家庭化迁移多出于经济理性。③夫妻与未婚子女家庭以举家迁移为主，子女对家庭完整性具有积极作用，家庭化迁移更多考虑子女教育、生活照料和社会保障。④未婚者与父母家庭中，未婚者逐渐离家并以非家庭化迁移为主，父母对未婚子女生活、工作选择等保持独立性尊重。     

Are new patterns of low‐income distribution emerging in Canadian metropolitan areas?

Recent studies on urban poverty in Canadian cities suggest a growing spatial concentration of poor populations within metropolitan regions. This article assesses trends in the intra‐urban distribution of the poor population from 1986 to 2006 in eight of Canada's largest cities. We consider five well‐known dimensions of segregation, as identified by Massey and Denton (1988) , in order to examine changes in the spatial distribution of poor populations within metropolitan areas: evenness, exposure, concentration, clustering, and centralization. These indices were calculated for low‐income populations at the census tract level using data from five Canadian censuses. Although each metropolitan area has distinctive characteristics, we were able to identify some general trends. The results suggest that, in 2006 compared to 1986, low‐income populations lived in more spatially concentrated areas, which were, at the same time, socioeconomically more homogeneous and more dispersed throughout the metropolitan area. In addition, we observed that over the last twenty years areas of poverty have been located, for the most part, in neighbourhoods adjacent to downtown cores. Nevertheless, we found that poverty has mostly increased in suburban areas located outside inner‐city neighbourhoods. Growing socioeconomic homogeneity and dispersion of low income areas in metropolitan areas reveal new spatial patterns of urban poverty distribution. These findings should be cause for concern as social isolation in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods could affect the life chances and opportunities for the residents of those areas.     

METROPOLITAN OUTMIGRATION PATTERN OF CANADIAN LABOUR FORCE ENTRANTS, 1971–76

This paper analyses the 1971 -76 metropolitan out-migration pattern of Canadian males in the labour force entrance age group. Migration is conceptualized within a three-level choice framework, and statistical inference is based on a multinomial logit model. It was found (1) that the propensity to outmigrate and the destination choice pattern vary substantially among the 23 metropolitan areas; (2) that 83 per cent of the variation in the destination choice probabilities of metropolitanward migrants can be explained by only five variables (log of distance, cultural dissimilarity, temperature, employment growth, and population size); and (3) that housing conditions are essentially the results (rather than the causes) of intermetropolitan migration .     

基于村域微尺度的人口流动类型空间分异及作用机理——以云南玉龙县为例

村域微尺度人口流动过程对县级单元就近城镇化发展、小城镇发展和新型农村社区建设等方面影响凸显.以云南玉龙县为研究区域,以行政村为基本空间单元,深入剖析人口流动村域类型空间分异特征,识别人口流动村域类型空间分异的关键影响因素及其作用机制.研究表明:①玉龙县村域人口流动特征呈现明显的空间分异,具体表现在人口流动强度和人口流动...     

Visual artists: counter‐urbanites in the Canadian countryside?

Professional visual artists have always enjoyed considerable latitude in the selection of a place of work and residence. Recent decades have witnessed their growing presence within the Canadian countryside. This paper seeks to provide an interpretation of this phenomenon by exploring two sub-objectives. First is to determine whether artists who establish themselves in rural communities can be considered to be part of the counter‐urbanisation movement, involving the relocation of urban residents down the settlement hierarchy. Second is to identify what types of migration are occurring and why. Our surveys of visual artists residing in the southern Ontario communities of Elora and Parry Sound reveal that most participants are part of a movement involving the decision to take up both residence and employment in a rural locale. We further find that the relocation of visual artists is driven to some extent by a strong attachment to natural landscapes. By way of conclusions, we briefly speculate about the broader population of urban residents. We remind ourselves that artists often have been harbingers of new movements and that today there are growing numbers of workers outside the artistic community who also have increasing latitude in regards to choosing where to live and work. Overall, our findings suggest that there is ongoing blurring of geographic boundaries—between space and place, between place of work and place of residence and, of course, between rural and urban.     

Determinants of temporary labour migration in southern India

We present new data from three village panchayats in northwest Tamil Nadu and investigate the associations between demographic and socioeconomic factors with temporary labour migration from this setting. Individual (n?=?1110) and household (n?=?278) level logistic regression models were used to demonstrate how factors at each of these levels can influence temporary labour migration trajectories. Young males were most likely to temporarily migrate for work from this region. Additionally, large households from historically disadvantaged castes with marginal land and housing were most likely to have at least one migrant member. Households with multiple migrant members appear to use temporary migration to cope with serious deprivation relative to households with only one migrant member. These findings provide a strong case that can be compared to other settings in India and can be used to inform improved policy and targeted development initiatives to support temporary migrant workers and their households.     

Net migration estimation in an extended,multiregional gravity model

A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted.     

Evolutionary Series of Physical-Geographic Phenomena and Finite Automata

Evolutionary series of the type rill—furrow—gully—ravine are analyzed in terms of the theory of finite automata, in which the input and state at time t determine the output and state at time t + 1. External factors of evolution are treated as the inputs of the automaton. If the probabilities of one state's turning into another state are considered, the model becomes a simple Markov chain or, in the language of the theory of automata, a probabilistic finite automaton. It is shown on the basis of a matrix of transition probabilities that after a certain length of time the system reaches a state of equilibrium, or ergodic state.     

中国互联网与区域经济

文章运用指数定律分析了中国互联网的域名地区分布、地区人均国内生产总值分布和地区人口分布,得出的结论是:中国互联网分布是地区人均国内生产总值的反映,与地区人口分布联系不大。这证实了互联网与区域经济的紧密相关性。研究中还发现,中国互联网仍然处于高速增长期;最后给出了中国互联网增长的速度,以及到达成熟稳定时期所需的时间。     

Prehistoric demography of North America inferred from radiocarbon data

Large radiocarbon datasets are increasingly used as a paleodemographic proxy, although potential sources of bias in such records are poorly understood. In this paper, we use more than 25,000 radiocarbon dates extracted from the Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database (CARD) to estimate long-term population trends in North America, while critically examining biases in such records. The frequency distribution of CARD dates shows a positive curvilinear pattern, such that older dates exist in lower numbers than more recent dates, which in part reflects the removal of cultural carbon from the archaeological record through processes such as erosion and dissolution. The average annual growth rate of radiocarbon dates in CARD was calculated and used to derive estimates of the population of North America from the Paleo-Indian to the Contact Periods. While taphonomic bias has likely affected the CARD data, other factors, such as the overrepresentation of Paleo-Indian and Archaic radiocarbon dates, may have offset any bias due to taphonomy. A quantitative reconstruction of Native American population shows that population increased rapidly around 2000 cal yr BP, reaching a maximum of 2,500,000 people by ～AD 1150. From this time until European contact, the population declined, possibly due to the effects of increased sedentism and population density.     

STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING MODELS OF STOCHASTIC NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM*

ABSTRACT. Boyce et al. (1981, 1983) have proposed and implementd the use of observed entropy levels to estimate the travel-cost coefficient in mathematical programming models of network equilibrium which involve logit route-choice probabilities. This so-called “dispersion-constrained” model is shown to give severely biased and statistically inefficient underestimates. A natural counterpart, the entropy-maximizing model, is proposed here and overestimates the travel-cost coefficient with much lower bias and much higher statistical efficiency. Even though the two models are mathematically homeomorphic in some respects, they have vastly different statistical properties. It follows that the use of observed entropy levels is undesirable and should be avoided, since maximizing entropy provides an unambiguously superior alternative.     

Serial correlation in multiregional migration models

"In this paper, we outline the specification and estimation of a time series of multiregional net-migration equations subject to first-order serial correlation. We show that the necessary nonstochastic adding-up constraint, which requires that net migration in the system sum to zero, imposes restrictions on the serial-correlation coefficients. We estimate equations under these restrictions using data for the ten Canadian provinces for the period 1962-1985. The results confirm the significance of the serial-correlation coefficient and, hence, the importance of incorporating this correction in future time-series models of multiregional migration."     

Labour Control in the Tobacco Agro‐spaces: Migrant Agricultural Workers in South‐Western Ontario

International labour migration programs provide a vulnerable workforce that services various sectors in developed economies. The agriculture sector is one arena in which the employment of migrant workers has become more pervasive. Annually, approximately 30,000 workers are employed in the Canadian agriculture sector through the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Program (SAWP). In this paper, I focus on the SAWP workers in tobacco farming, and investigate the ways that labour control is achieved on two small‐scale farms. I draw upon original empirical evidence from interviews with three Mexican and nine Jamaican workers, two union representatives, and two farm owners in South‐Western Ontario, Canada. My findings show that various factors at multiple scales shape the labour control regime and significantly advantage farm owners over workers. Based on my findings, I argue that the labour control regime is conditioned exogenously by multi‐scalar factors and generated endogenously at the point of production.     

Representation and local democracy: Geographical variations in elector to councillor ratios

In a democracy, one person's vote should count as much as another's vote. While a range of factors can affect this, including the electoral system, party support bases, party campaigning, and the effectiveness and identity of representatives, a key principal is that for each political unit the number of electors per representative should be as equal as possible. Only when equality in electorate to representative ratios is established can equity in other demographic infrastructures be pursued. To achieve representation equality in English local authorities the Electoral Commission's Periodic Electoral Review process considers for each electoral ward the number of councillors, current and forecasted electorates and revisions to boundaries. Here, using 2005 boundaries, we examine variations in elector to councillor ratios in England. Comparing these ratios with 2001 Census data, we investigate whether variations relate to ethnic minority population distributions.We found considerable differences in representation ratios between four types of local authority. Generally, County Districts have fewer electors per councillor and therefore better representation ratios. There are progressively higher ratios for Unitary Authorities and London Boroughs; Metropolitan Districts have most electors per councillor. Comparing each ward's ratio with the representation of its associated district we found most wards lie within what might be considered an acceptable range of variation. Sub-district representation variability relates to urban–rural variations in ward extent and the use of one-, two- and three-seat systems. There is no evidence that variations in ward ratios relate systematically to distributions of ethnic minorities. Despite this, to capture local population characteristics, we advise utilising ethnic group demographic characteristics when forecasting electorates.     

The Effect of Migration on Changes,Composition, and Distribution of Canada's Population

The high mobility of the Canadian population accounts for the significant influence of migration processes on the dynamics, composition, and distribution of population. Immigration determines to a large extent the age-and-sex and ethnic distribution of the population and labor force, and fosters urbanization. The areal distribution of immigrants intensifies regional differences in the level and structure of the economy. These differences, in turn, are the main factor in interregional migration. The interdependence between regional economic indicators and the intensity of migration is analyzed.