An Analysis of Migration Streams for the Canadian Regional System, 1952–1983: 2. Disequilibrium

This is part two of a two-part series that seeks to specify the factors and processes contributing to aggregate change in the Canadian population distribution over the recent past. In part one, we use a model of migration probabilities to identify socioeconomic factors that explain the observed interregional migration flows. In part two, we use an adjustment process for our regional population system to calculate equilibrium population distributions. The estimated migration probabilities of part one are essential for this calculation, thus linking equilibria with the socioeconomic factors previously identified. Disequilibrium, defined as the difference between observed and equilibrium population distributions, is then used to infer relative growth and decline tendencies in the system. We examine and justify our results in the larger context of contemporary Canadian history.     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

The Effect of Migration on Changes,Composition, and Distribution of Canada's Population

The high mobility of the Canadian population accounts for the significant influence of migration processes on the dynamics, composition, and distribution of population. Immigration determines to a large extent the age-and-sex and ethnic distribution of the population and labor force, and fosters urbanization. The areal distribution of immigrants intensifies regional differences in the level and structure of the economy. These differences, in turn, are the main factor in interregional migration. The interdependence between regional economic indicators and the intensity of migration is analyzed.     

A Hierarchical Migration Model of Population Redistribution within a Central Place Hierarchy

A simple hierarchical migration model is proposed as a mechanism for the redistribution of population within a Christaller central place hierarchy. Given a predefined functional hierarchy, the migration process causes any initial population distribution to converge to an equilibrium distribution. Under certain special conditions, the equilibrium is identical to a central place population distribution derived from economic base concepts.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

Migration strategies and occupational outcomes of southern Italian graduates

Abstract

The aim of this work is to analyse whether internal migration of graduates is an efficient strategy for addressing scarce occupational opportunities in southern Italy. Analysis of data on the southern graduate population in 2004 shows the rise of a new aspect of social discrimination for recent graduates in the process of transition to the labour market. In fact, the probabilities of adopting different strategies of geographical mobility are not homogeneously distributed, but they change on the basis of available family resources. This differentiation has an impact on labour market outcomes, modifying strategies and ways that lead the transition towards employment.     

The Pattern of Migration With Variable Migration Cost

In this paper the role of migrant networks in determining patterns of out-migration is examined. Conditions under which migration equilibrium may permit multiple steady states are identified. The analysis discusses instances where migration generates its own demand and explains differences in migration propensities across potential sources of out-migration.     

Migration in Finland,a multi-level system of regions

A systems approach is applied to the study of migration trends in Finland for the period 1971-1981, with particular attention to the period 1971-1978. The results indicate the existence of six permanent migration regions linked by a multilevel system. "The organization of this system varies from one part of the country to another, the most common modes being hierarchical tree flow networks belonging to a nodal system and polar and dendritic networks associated with a highly polarized system. The nodal system mode is seen to be increasing in currency."     

Modeling Migration Careers,Using Data from a British Survey

Development of more sophisticated techniques for modeling longitudinal data has implications for improving our understanding of migration. This paper uses longitudinal data from the British Social Change and Economic Life initiative to disentangle the effects of population heterogeneity, progress through the life cycle and secular change on observed migration differentials. The data consist of retrospective life histories from people sampled in several contrasting localities in Great Britain, in which residential moves can be linked to changes in occupation and household structure. We present a framework for analysis of data of this type using a generalized linear modeling approach, together with results concerning variations in the probability of migration with age, gender, and changes in household and occupational circumstances. Of particular note is the evidence of substantial duration-of-residence effects and an unexpected later-career increase in migration propensity.     

Regional Fertility Differentials and the Effect of Migration: An Analysis of U.S. State-level Data

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the influence of interregional migration on regional fertility differentials. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that regions that are closely linked through migration have, all else held constant, a lower differential in fertility than regions that are relatively isolated from one another. A model linking the fertility differential between two states to migration as well as a number of socioeconomic variables is articulated. The model is tested by means of a randomization procedure using U.S. state-level data for 1980. Results support the hypothesis that an increasing volume of interregional migration tends to lower regional fertility differentials.     

The Migration of Australians to Bali,Indonesia: More than Retirees and Surfers

The factors underpinning the migration of Australian residents to Bali, Indonesia, and the demographic characteristics of the Australian expatriate population in Bali are examined. It is argued that in undertaking a move to Bali, Australian expatriates are employing a deliberate strategy to utilise their existing financial resources and social networks to gain a lifestyle they perceive would not be available to them if they were to remain in Australia. However, it is also argued that there is considerable diversity in the factors underpinning migration decisions. Through a survey of 236 Australians living in Bali, it was found that a complex of place‐based and non‐place‐based factors influenced migration decisions. It was also found that some factors underpinning migration were broadly associated with phase in the life course. While the survey identified only a minor overrepresentation of Australian retirees living in Bali, given the factors that were identified as underpinning migration to Bali, and with the large baby boomer population nearing retirement, it is probable that as Australia's population ages, there will be further growth in the number and proportional share of older Australians living in Bali.     

珠三角流动人口家庭化迁移特征及影响因素研究——基于家庭生命周期视角

流动人口家庭化迁移有利于家庭质量和生活幸福感的提升，对推进我国“以人为本”的新型城镇化具有重要意义。本文基于家庭生命周期理论，以珠三角流动人口核心家庭为研究对象，分析处于不同家庭生命周期流动人口的基本属性特征、家庭化迁移特征及影响因素。研究发现：①不同家庭生命周期流动人口的基本属性同质性与差异性并存。②未育夫妻家庭中夫妻分居现象严重，家庭化迁移多出于经济理性。③夫妻与未婚子女家庭以举家迁移为主，子女对家庭完整性具有积极作用，家庭化迁移更多考虑子女教育、生活照料和社会保障。④未婚者与父母家庭中，未婚者逐渐离家并以非家庭化迁移为主，父母对未婚子女生活、工作选择等保持独立性尊重。     

Are new patterns of low‐income distribution emerging in Canadian metropolitan areas?

Recent studies on urban poverty in Canadian cities suggest a growing spatial concentration of poor populations within metropolitan regions. This article assesses trends in the intra‐urban distribution of the poor population from 1986 to 2006 in eight of Canada's largest cities. We consider five well‐known dimensions of segregation, as identified by Massey and Denton (1988) , in order to examine changes in the spatial distribution of poor populations within metropolitan areas: evenness, exposure, concentration, clustering, and centralization. These indices were calculated for low‐income populations at the census tract level using data from five Canadian censuses. Although each metropolitan area has distinctive characteristics, we were able to identify some general trends. The results suggest that, in 2006 compared to 1986, low‐income populations lived in more spatially concentrated areas, which were, at the same time, socioeconomically more homogeneous and more dispersed throughout the metropolitan area. In addition, we observed that over the last twenty years areas of poverty have been located, for the most part, in neighbourhoods adjacent to downtown cores. Nevertheless, we found that poverty has mostly increased in suburban areas located outside inner‐city neighbourhoods. Growing socioeconomic homogeneity and dispersion of low income areas in metropolitan areas reveal new spatial patterns of urban poverty distribution. These findings should be cause for concern as social isolation in the most disadvantaged neighbourhoods could affect the life chances and opportunities for the residents of those areas.     

发达国家技术移民政策及其影响——以美国和加拿大为例

在经济全球化背景下,国际人口迁移呈现出明显的特点。其特点之一就是技术移民剧增成为全球化的一个突出现象。技术移民之所以在全球备受青睐,与发达国家制定技术移民政策有密切的关系,美国和加拿大是成功吸引技术移民的国家,两国之所以制定技术移民政策,是为了应对信息革命带来的全球性人才争夺战。同时美、加技术移民政策产生了双重影响。为了遏制人才外流,亚洲国家应采取积极的措施,制定人才强国战略,吸引有用人才尤其是技术人才,在国际人才竞争中取得主动,赢得未来。     

Academic Migration at the Canada–US Border

This article uses data provided by national faculty directories, individual and departmental websites, interviews, and autobiographical essays to engage the literature on academic migration at the Canada–US borderland. Our goal is to analyze the cross-border migration, spatial patterns, and motivational factors shaping the cross-border flows of academic migrants from one selected discipline. Following a foundational discussion of the related political, economic, and sociocultural push–pull factors influencing the migration of university faculty in Canada and the US during the past four decades, we focus on a case study of two comparative groups of academic migrants to compare the numbers, specializations, academic ranks, location patterns, and interrelated factors of North American academic migrants at the borderlands in recent years.     

AMENITIES VERSUS LABOR MARKET OPPORTUNITIES: CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL DISTANCE TO MOVE*

ABSTRACT. A recent debate in the regional economics literature has focused attention on the motivation behind an individual's decision to migrate. Human-capital migration models emphasize labor market disequilibria whereas alternative (hedonic) migration models stress households’altered demand for nontraded goods. In this paper, we test the relative importance of these two possible motivations for moving between metropolitan areas. We use an intercity hedonic model to decompose wages into equilibrium and disequilibrium components. We then compare the separate influences of amenities and the disequilibrium component of wages on the distance moved between two metropolitan areas. Our findings indicate that both economic factors and amenity differentials are significant factors in explaining regional migration.     

Migration at the micro-scale: intra-parochial movements in rural Normandy, 1946-54

"Most working definitions of migration accept that only movements across local authority boundaries can normally be dealt with: by the use of questionnaire surveys certain urban studies have examined intra-unit moves but few non-urban migration studies have been able to penetrate below the level of local authority boundaries. In this paper use is made of various unpublished documents available in connection with population censuses in France from which it is possible to examine migration within rural communes for the intercensal period from 1946 to 1954. Twelve communes were investigated and the emerging picture of intra-parochial migrants have been compared with that of inter-parochial movers." The author notes "differences in age-structure between the two groups. Net movement takes place up the settlement hierarchy within each 'commune', whilst the reasons for movement show that between village-centres and outlying settlements there are certain social cleavages."     

METROPOLITAN OUTMIGRATION PATTERN OF CANADIAN LABOUR FORCE ENTRANTS, 1971–76

This paper analyses the 1971 -76 metropolitan out-migration pattern of Canadian males in the labour force entrance age group. Migration is conceptualized within a three-level choice framework, and statistical inference is based on a multinomial logit model. It was found (1) that the propensity to outmigrate and the destination choice pattern vary substantially among the 23 metropolitan areas; (2) that 83 per cent of the variation in the destination choice probabilities of metropolitanward migrants can be explained by only five variables (log of distance, cultural dissimilarity, temperature, employment growth, and population size); and (3) that housing conditions are essentially the results (rather than the causes) of intermetropolitan migration .     

Return and Onward Interprovincial Migration through Economic Boom and Bust in Canada,from 1976–81 to 1981–86

This paper applies a three-level nested logit model to the micro data of the 1981 and 1986 Canadian census to study the effects of personal factors and provincial attributes on the interprovincial migration patterns of the non-native young adults (aged 20–44) through the economic boom of 1976–81 and the economic bust of 1981–86. We found strong evidence that through both boom and bust periods, both return and onward migrations were in the “right” direction, in that they responded to economic variables in a rational way. However, the large proportion of migrants choosing to make a return migration indicates the importance of the province of birth in the mental map of the potential migrants. We also found that the selectivities in the migration behaviors with respect to certain personal factors (especially education) remained basically the same through both boom and bust periods.