In Vindication of the Ghosh Model: A Reinterpretation as a Price Model

Ghosh's ‘supply-driven’ input-output model is a well-known alternative for Leontief's traditional ‘demand-driven’ input-output model. The Ghosh model calculates changes in gross sectoral outputs for exogenously specified changes in the sectoral inputs of primary factors. Typically, the model is interpreted so as to describe physical output changes as caused by changes in the physical inputs of primary factors. It has been convincingly argued, however, that this interpretation in terms of quantities is implausible. In the present paper it is shown that the supply-driven input-output model becomes plausible, once it is interpreted as a price model. That is, sectoral output values change due to price changes, which are caused by price changes for the primary inputs. Therefore the term Ghosh price model is adopted for the supply-driven model, whereas the demand-driven model is referred to as the Leontief quantity model. Dual to this Leontief quantity model is the standard Leontief price model. It is shown that the results obtained by the two price models are equivalent. Interpreting the supply-driven input-output model as a price model also allows for a meaningful interpretation of the inverse matrix in terms of multipliers. As the dual to the supply-driven (or Ghosh price) model the Ghosh quantity model is derived, which is equivalent to the demand-driven (or Leontief quantity) model.     

The Global Economic Crisis and China's Foreign Trade

Two noted academic specialists on China's economic geography are joined by a research assistant to examine the impact of the current global economic crisis and recession on China's trade with the rest of the world. Relying on statistics collected by the country's customs administration through the first half of 2009, the authors identify and analyze trends in China's imports and exports (detailing countries of origin and destination) as well as balance of trade. They also develop and present an input-output model in order to gain a more precise understanding of the country's trade dependence (both before and during the crisis) than afforded by analyses based on conventional statistics, and explore some of the implications of the decline in trade on levels of domestic unemployment.     

REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE SOVIET ECONOMY A MODEL AND ANALYSIS*

A multiregional econometric model of the Soviet economy is presented. It consists of 1,391 equations, with time-series information for 1965-1980. In conformity with the number of the country's republics, 15 input-output tables are incorporated. The discussion includes the methodological framework, the structure and equations, theoretical justification for the interaction between the econometric and input-output components, data and estimation, and forecasting results.     

Alan Wilson – contributions to research on population and migration

ABSTRACT

This article reviews Alan Wilson's research on population and migration in the 1970s and the 2010s, which supplements his principal contribution - mathematical modelling of urban and regional systems. In the 1970s, drawing on input-output models of economies and working with Philip Rees, Wilson established the accounting basis for Andrei Rogers' multi-regional projection model, adding international migration. Innovative methods were developed to complete demographic accounts, where there were data gaps. In the 2010s, working with Adam Dennett, Wilson systematized methods for estimating migration flows between regions in Europe, employing his family of spatial interaction models. The key aim of both research strands was to ensure that no information was ignored to ensure consistency in population and migration models. The influence of Wilson's contributions to research on population and migration is traced through a survey of subsequent research.     

A Geostatistical Linear Regression Model for Small Area Data. 一种适用于小区域数据的地统计线性回归模型

We present a new linear regression model for use with aggregated, small area data that are spatially autocorrelated. Because these data are aggregates of individual‐level data, we choose to model the spatial autocorrelation using a geostatistical model specified at the scale of the individual. The autocovariance of observed small area data is determined via the natural aggregation over the population. Unlike lattice‐based autoregressive approaches, the geostatistical approach is invariant to the scale of data aggregation. We establish that this geostatistical approach also is a valid autoregressive model; thus, we call this approach the geostatistical autoregressive (GAR) model. An asymptotically consistent and efficient maximum likelihood estimator is derived for the GAR model. Finite sample evidence from simulation experiments demonstrates the relative efficiency properties of the GAR model. Furthermore, while aggregation results in less efficient estimates than disaggregated data, the GAR model provides the most efficient estimates from the data that are available. These results suggest that the GAR model should be considered as part of a spatial analyst's toolbox when aggregated, small area data are analyzed. More important, we believe that the GAR model's attention to the individual‐level scale allows for a more flexible and theory‐informed specification than the existing autoregressive approaches based on an area‐level spatial weights matrix. Because many spatial process models, both in geography and in other disciplines, are specified at the individual level, we hope that the GAR covariance specification will provide a vehicle for a better informed and more interdisciplinary use of spatial regression models with area‐aggregated data.     

LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF NONCOINTEGRATED AND COINTEGRATED REGIONAL AND NATIONAL MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Johansen's (1988) multivariate test for cointegration is first applied to four models involving quarterly state data and five variables, along with a national model based on Friedman and Kuttner's (1992) model of money demand, which uses three variables. Each regional model consists of frequently used national and state series, for which theory suggests the possible cointegration of several series pairs. Beginning with all five series, however, one state model is found to be cointegrated over each of 20 successive estimation intervals. The money demand model and one state model are not cointegrated over the same intervals. In the cointegrated case, five-year experimental forecasts show that error correction mechanism (ECM) and Bayesian ECM models outperform all other approaches. More importantly, forecasting performance improves further by respecifying the ECM model based on three cointegrated series pairs rather than the five-component cointegrating vector. For the two noncointegrated systems, the first-difference model suggested by the cointegration/ error correction literature is far superior to VAR in levels over both shortand long-term horizons.     

SOLVING A THREE-DIMENSIONAL URBAN ACTIVITY MODEL OF LAND USE INTENSITY AND TRANSPORT CONGESTION*

ABSTRACT Recent developments in combining input-output and transportation planning models have made it possible to construct realistic comprehensive urban and regional activity models of land use intensity. These models form the basis for a rigorous approach to studying the interactions among urban activities. However, efficient computational solution methods for implementing such comprehensive models are still not available. In this paper, an efficient solution method for a nonlinear programming urban systems model is developed by combining Evans's partial linearization technique with Powell's hybrid method. The solution algorithm is applied to a small but realistic urban area with a detailed transportation network.     

An Economic Analysis of Biproportional Properties in an Input-Output System

Various methods, such as biproportional adjustment and econometric estimating have been used to generate time series for input-output tables. In this paper, temporal changes of input-output coefficients are examined in order to analyze their behavior. Within the Chicago Region Econometric Input-Output Model, a set of input- output relationships has been extracted analytically for the period 1980–1997. Using the empirical evidence for Chicago, this paper conducts econometric time series analysis to determine whether or not certain coefficients or sets of coefficients exhibit tendencies toward stability or predictable change or whether others require more extensive econometric estimation.     

THE ROLE OF DEFENSE CUTS IN THE CALIFORNIA RECESSION COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS AND INTERSTATE FACTOR MOBILITY*

ABSTRACT. This study develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of California to examine the impact of recent defense cuts on the state's economy. The study demonstrates use of a CGE model to examine the sensitivity of regional economy models to assumptions about factor migration. Model variants include input-output and closed economy models as limiting cases. The results show that the California economy is sensitive to defense cuts. The multiplier relating the impact of defense cuts to state product ranges from one to almost five, depending on the degree of interstate factor mobility.     

Has it become warmer in Alberta? Mapping temperature changes for the period 1950–2010 across Alberta,Canada

When a Canada‐wide daily climate time series, covering the period 1950–2010, became available, an opportunity arose to analyze the time series for trends of a variety of temperature indices. The 6,833 climate grid cells covering Alberta, each with an area of 10 km by 10 km, allowed the detailed mapping of 30 temperature indices across the province. From each time series, an annual series was computed, which then enabled trend analyses using the non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall and Sen Slope tests. New maps could be created at an unprecedented spatial resolution, and an associated website was developed to access all trends and changes between 1950 and 2010 for all grid cells at albertaclimaterecords.com . The confidence levels of some temperature trends exceed 99%, while others are below 80%. In Alberta's south, annual average temperatures have increased by 1°C to 2°C since the 1950s, but in Alberta's north the increase is 2°C to 4°C. The growing season has lengthened by between one and five weeks since the 1950s, while the number of frost days has declined. The most significant trends observed were increases in mean annual and winter temperatures, and declines in the number of days below ?20°C and heating degree days.     

Optical dating and sedimentary record from the terrace depositional profile of the Warta River (Central Poland)

Results of OSL dating and sedimentary studies from the profile of the low alluvial terrace of the middle Warta River are presented. The samples were dated using the single-aliquot regenera-tive method. Dating was used to establish a timing of the Weichselian Late Glacial events in the river valley environment. Stable conditions on the floodplain are expressed by the deposition of organic-rich series radiocarbon dated at 12 900-12 600 cal BP and 11 600-10 770 cal BP. Samples for OSL dating were collected from the mineral material deposited during the intensification of flood events during the Weichselian decline. The results obtained for the alluvia range from 12.78 ± 0.62 ka b2k to 14.33 ± 0.74 ka b2k. Sedimentological criteria allowed to distinguish between particular flood events. Overestimation of OSL ages is probably a result of rapidity of environmental changes in that time.     

Land Use Theory and Factor Intensities

Although Thünen's rent theory has been formalized and extended, his interdependent spatial theory of factor intensities has received little attention. The solution must be developed from a fully specified rent equation that recognizes the dependence of outputs on inputs, and the important distinction between fixed and variable costs. A general solution is found for the one-market, one-productive-factor case, with the limiting restriction that marginal revenue productivity must be rising more slowly than marginal costs. The flexibility and power of Thünen's model is shown by developing, from the general solution, scenarios under various market and production conditions.     

A Model of Contiguity for Spatial Unit Allocation

We consider a problem of allocating spatial units (SUs) to particular uses to form "regions" according to specified criteria, which is here called "spatial unit allocation." Contiguity—the quality of a single region being connected—is one of the most frequently required criteria for this problem. This is also one that is difficult to model in algebraic terms for algorithmic solution. The purpose of this article is to propose a new exact formulation of contiguity that can be incorporated into any mixed integer programming model for SU allocation. The resulting model guarantees to enforce contiguity regardless of other included criteria such as compactness. Computational results suggest that problems involving a single region and fewer than about 200 SUs are optimally solved in fairly reasonable time, but that larger problems must rely on heuristics for approximate solutions. It is also found that a problem of any size can be formulated in a more tractable form when a fixed number of SUs are to be selected or when a certain SU is selected in advance.     

Methodology,consetvation criteria and performance evaluation for archaeological site shelters

Abstract

The many intersecting issues that arise when deciding whether to shelter an archaeological site should be approached using a values-based methodology, one that has demonstrated its validity arid practical worth in conservation over recent decades. Nonetheless, pitfalls abound in the decision-making process and in establishing effective conservation criteria which should be based principally on a thorough understanding of the threats to the resource and the specific deterioration mechanisms operating, with the objective of creating a shelter that will preserve the site's identified values. An aspect that has received almost no attention in the past is evaluation of a shelter's performance, both qualitative and quantitative, in preserving the site. It is urged that this receive priority when establishing the conservation criteria during the initial phases of a sheltering project. Issues are illustrated from a range of diverse sites, including a number of published shelters. The paper first looks at the examples of the Laetoli (Tanzania) and Lark Quarry (Australia) trackway sites in the context of decision-making and conservation criteria, and then discusses two examples of evaluation: one quantitative, using an experimental shelter and the other discussing publications on a petroglyph site shelter.     

THE ASTRONOMICAL ORIENTATION OF THE URBAN PLAN OF ALEXANDRIA

Alexander the Great founded Alexandria in 331 BC. An examination of the topography of the city today allows the identification of the essential elements of the original urban system, and shows that the site was chosen mainly for religious and symbolic reasons. In fact, Alexandria was the prototype of a series of Hellenistic towns designed as ‘king's towns’ that aimed to make explicit the divine power of their founder. We examine the orientation of the orthogonal grid, which was based on a main longitudinal axis, and show that this axis is orientated to the rising sun on the day of Alexander the Great's birth. At the time of foundation, ‘King's Star’ Regulus was also rising along the same direction.     

Mémoire et histoire dans un roman graphique en six volumes: double jeu,infotainment, obsession française?

In October 2012 the sixth and last volume of the graphic novel Il était une fois en France [Once upon a time in France] was released. The six volumes, published at the rate of one per year since September 2007, cover the 60 years of the Jewish protagonist's life. It spans the time from Joseph Joanovici's birth in Kechinev [today's Moldavia] in 1905 to his death, alone and ruined, in Paris in 1965, and covers his four years of collaboration and resistance in Occupied France that saw him become a multi-millionnaire. The series is acclaimed by the public and critics alike. My article demonstrates that this graphic novel cannot belong to what Henry Rousso, in his book Le Syndrome de Vichy, called ‘the French Obsession’, but rather, its narrative qualities, which emphasize the protagonist's ambivalence by using techniques similar to those used in movies like Once upon a time in America and Miller's crossing [both of which are cited by the series' authors in several interviews and are obvious in the visual and narrative style of the series], place this graphic novel in what I see as a new period of infotainment that is closer to the new generation of readers who are immersed in globalization and the spectacularization of history.     

The After School Routines of Literature-Devoted Urban Children

This paper discusses the out of school routines of a group of ‘literature-devoted’ children of the city of Madrid (Spain). The children and families were recruited for the study at a library, a children's bookstore and a puppet show in a park. Participants provided information on their weekly routines through several procedures: surveys, photographs of their daily lives, interviews based on the photographs and interviews with parents. We develop a spatially based model that allows us to identify four styles of activity in children's out of school lives: homebound children, non-scheduled children, outdoor and scheduled children, and fully scheduled children. Our results suggest that there is significant diversity in the ways in which children's after-school time is organized, even within a middle-class and socially homogeneous sample as the one in this study. Also, the range of activities our participants engage in seems to contradict current portraits of Western urban children's lives as constrained.     

An Approach toward Energy Balance Simulation over Rugged Terrain

We develop a digital computer model, based upon equilibrium temperature theory, of the magnitudes of the components of the energy balance for a mountainous topographic surface. The model includes an algorithm for calculating slope, exposure, and horizon information for every point on a digitized grid. Incoming solar and thermal radiation are then simulated for every point. At present the model is designed for clear-sky conditions, but it could be modified for cloudy skies. Air temperature and humidity variations are specified by externally defined relations, and values for albedo and soil thermal properties are specified for every point on the grid. Wind speed variation over the grid is not modeled, but is specified by an empirical function. The model simulates net radiation, soil heat flow, sensible and latent heat flow, and surface temperature at specified time intervals. Output is in the form of contour maps.     

基于超效率DEA模型的中国五星级酒店效率评价研究

本文运用超效率DEA模型对中国2002～2009年的五星级酒店效率进行测度,依据DEA的BCC模型将五星级酒店的综合效率分解为纯技术效率与规模效率,同时按照东、中、西、东北四个区域对中国五星级酒店的综合效率变化趋势进行收敛检验。结果显示：2002～2009年中国五星级酒店的综合效率较低,呈上升趋势,但也有所波动,效率均值的高低排序依次为东部、中部、西部、东北,其中东部与中部地区酒店综合效率值高于全国均值,西部与东北地区酒店综合效率值低于全国均值。综合效率值分解显示,中国五星级酒店的规模效率明显高于纯技术效率,对综合效率贡献较大,同时收敛分析结果表明,由于东部与西部差距逐渐增大,导致2002～2009年间,中国五星级酒店综合效率呈较小的发教趋势。     

Conceptions of Reinhart Koselleck's Theory of Historical Time in the Thinking of Michael Oakeshott

In recent years students of politics have begun to recognise Reinhart Koselleck's practice of Begriffsgeschichte, the study of conceptual history, as a useful approach for investigating key concepts in political ideologies and the history of ideas. But his theory of historical time—the temporal dimension to his semantic project and his broader theorising of the historical discipline—is often overlooked and underused as a heuristic device. By placing the thinking of Michael Oakeshott alongside Koselleck's theory of historical time, this article brings his thinking on temporality to the forefront, fashioning a conversation between the two thinkers about the place for history and the formal criteria necessary for ordering the past properly. In doing so, it juxtaposes Koselleck's reflections on historicity and his theory of historical time with Oakeshott's philosophical enquiry on the historical mode of understanding. It identifies important convergences and divergences between the two thinkers' theories, focusing in particular on questions regarding the potential for representing the past as multilayered and plural historical times. The article then suggests that their respective thoughts on the theory of history are in part a reaction to the modern politicisation of historical time and comprise a shared critique of radical political change.