"The Problem of Spatial Autocorrelation" and Local Spatial Statistics

This article examines the relationship between spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity, two properties unique to spatial data. The property of spatial dependence has led to a large body of research into spatial autocorrelation and also, largely independently, into geostatistics. The property of spatial heterogeneity has led to a growing awareness of the limitation of global statistics and the value of local statistics and local statistical models. The article concludes with a discussion of how the two properties can be accommodated within the same modelling framework.     

Local Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics: Distributional Issues and an Application

The statistics G_i(d) and G_i*(d), introduced in Getis and Ord (1992) for the study of local pattern in spatial data, are extended and their properties further explored. In particular, nonbinary weights are allowed and the statistics are related to Moran's autocorrelation statistic, I. The correlations between nearby values of the statistics are derived and verified by simulation. A Bonferroni criterion is used to approximate significance levels when testing extreme values from the set of statistics. An example of the use of the statistics is given using spatial-temporal data on the AIDS epidemic centering on San Francisco. Results indicate that in recent years the disease is intensifying in the counties surrounding the city.     

A Programming Approach to Minimizing and Maximizing Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics

A programming approach is presented for identifying the form of the weights matrix W which either minimizes or maximizes the value of Moran's spatial autocorrelation statistic for a specified vector of data values. Both nonlinear and linear programming solutions are presented. The former are necessary when the sum of the links in W is unspecified while the latter can be used if this sum is fixed. The approach is illustrated using data examined in previous studies for two variables measured for the counties of Eire. While programming solutions involving different sets of constraints are derived, all yield solutions in which the number of nonzero elements in W is considerably smaller than that in W defined using the contiguity relationships between the counties. In graph theory terms, all of the Ws derived define multicomponent graphs. Other characteristics of the derived Ws are also presented.     

Loglinear Residual Tests of Moran's I Autocorrelation and their Applications to Kentucky Breast Cancer Data

This article bridges the permutation test of Moran's I to the residuals of a loglinear model under the asymptotic normality assumption. It provides the versions of Moran's I based on Pearson residuals ( I _PR) and deviance residuals ( I _DR) so that they can be used to test for spatial clustering while at the same time account for potential covariates and heterogeneous population sizes. Our simulations showed that both I _PR and I _DR are effective to account for heterogeneous population sizes. The tests based on I _PR and I _DR are applied to a set of log-rate models for early-stage and late-stage breast cancer with socioeconomic and access-to-care data in Kentucky. The results showed that socioeconomic and access-to-care variables can sufficiently explain spatial clustering of early-stage breast carcinomas, but these factors cannot explain that for the late stage. For this reason, we used local spatial association terms and located four late-stage breast cancer clusters that could not be explained. The results also confirmed our expectation that a high screening level would be associated with a high incidence rate of early-stage disease, which in turn would reduce late-stage incidence rates.     

当代美国大都市区的空间结构特征与交通困境

第二次世界大战后美国大都市区的交通拥堵现象越来越严重,而且从20世纪70年代以来出现了新的发展趋势,即交通拥堵由原来的中心城市不断向郊区延伸.美国大都市区交通拥堵的原因深深地植根于大都市区的空间结构之中,其中包括郊区的低密度蔓延、住宅和就业的失衡、社区土地利用模式的单一性、郊区社区的空间设计和道路系统等.由于这些结构性问题十分难以克服,美国大都市区的交通陷于困境之中.     

Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A New Application to Account for Multiple and Dependent Tests in Local Statistics of Spatial Association

Assessing the significance of multiple and dependent comparisons is an important, and often ignored, issue that becomes more critical as the size of data sets increases. If not accounted for, false-positive differences are very likely to be identified. The need to address this issue has led to the development of a myriad of procedures to account for multiple testing. The simplest and most widely used technique is the Bonferroni method, which controls the probability that a true null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected. However, it is a very conservative procedure. As a result, the larger the data set the greater the chances that truly significant differences will be missed. In 1995, a new criterion, the false discovery rate (FDR), was proposed to control the proportion of false declarations of significance among those individual deviations from null hypotheses considered to be significant. It is more powerful than all previously proposed methods. Multiple and dependent comparisons are also fundamental in spatial analysis. As the number of locations increases, assessing the significance of local statistics of spatial association becomes a complex matter. In this article we use empirical and simulated data to evaluate the use of the FDR approach in appraising the occurrence of clusters detected by local indicators of spatial association. Results show a significant gain in identification of meaningful clusters when controlling the FDR, in comparison to more conservative approaches. When no control is adopted, false clusters are likely to be identified. If a conservative approach is used, clusters are only partially identified and true clusters are largely missed. In contrast, when the FDR approach is adopted, clusters are fully identified. Incorporating a correction for spatial dependence to conservative methods improves the results, but not enough to match those obtained by the FDR approach.     

20世纪后半期美国大都市区空间结构趋同现象及其理论意义

美国的大都市区化,反映了20世纪世界城市发展过程中不同于传统城市化的新的规律性现象。在这一过程中,大都市区空间结构出现趋同现象,其主要特点是分散化、多中心格局和大规模郊区化。这种现象对传统城市化理论提出挑战,并要求城市化概念的相应调整。在我国部分城市即将进入郊区化快速发展的关键时期,认识到这一点并在相关规划方面做出调整是很有必要的。     

论地理因素在陇南山地历史发展中的作用与影响

位于青藏高原、黄土高原与西秦岭交汇地带的甘肃陇南山地,区域内地形地貌复杂多样,为具有不同地域背景的民族、部落入居提供了基本的地理环境。而不同地理单元之间由于自然分界线与人文分界线之间相互依托、强化,使陇南山地历史发展呈现出"时间""空间"的双重分异和"内地化"与"边疆化"的双重趋势。在白龙江、洮河、岷峨山地、西秦岭、边墙、关隘、堡寨等大大小小自然、人文分界线中,由岷县、临潭、夏河连线所构成的"汉藏分界线"对陇南山地历史发展产生了根本性的影响。这条地理的、生态的分界线在约束人类活动的同时,又为人类最大限度的利用自然环境提供了可能。     

GIS在西拉木伦河以南地区环境考古研究中的初步应用

西拉木伦河源于内蒙古赤峰地区克什克腾旗西南部,向东流过赤峰地区中部,由西南而来的老哈河在赤峰地区东端汇入西拉木伦河,继而向东流入通辽地区开鲁县后称西辽河。西拉木伦河将赤峰地区分为南北     

Geographical Concentration of Manufacturing Industries in China: The Importance of Spatial and Industrial Scales

Using the most recent data from the first economic census in China, a team of China-based and American economic geographers investigates the geographical concentration of manufacturing industries at the provincial and county levels by integrating proxy variables for natural advantages, agglomeration economies, and institutional changes (e.g., decentralization) associated with economic transition. The authors focus their investigation on manufacturing activity as a whole, as well as on manufacturing categories at the two- and three-digit levels of aggregation (the latter representing a finer scale of analysis than used in almost all previous studies). Interesting differences emerge in the locational patterns of industries whose enterprises pursue strategies of globalization vis-à-vis local protectionism. Differences also are apparent in the impacts of agglomeration economies and knowledge spillover at different spatial scales. The findings suggest that both spatial scale and level of industrial aggregation matter when analyzing patterns of industrial agglomeration in China. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L10, L20, L60, O18. 5 figures, 5 tables, 50 references.     

遥感与地理信息系统在城市考古中的实践

遥感与地理信息系统是城市考古研究中重要的技术手段。借助遥感技术,在识别遗迹的基础上,首先可以对城址开展地图测量,确保研究数据的准确性,其次可以获取不同精度的地形地貌数据,从宏观和微观层面分析城址的空间环境和布局结构,最终可以为城市复原研究提供线索,提高田野考古工作的效率和精度。在地理信息系统应用方面,本文提出了"城市圈"的概念,将城址与周边遗址和自然环境纳入同一个空间集合进行考察,可以充分发挥地理信息系统的空间分析功能,行之有效的剖析城市空间属性所反映出的人地关系和社会关系。     

The Export of Silk to Tibetan Areas in the Ming Period and Its Impacts

Silk handicrafts are most representative of the Chinese hinterland and have played an important role in interethnic cultural exchanges since the Tang dynasty （618-907）, a ＂Silk Road＂ had existed between the hinterland and the Snow Land and had promoted friendship and cultural exchanges between Han and Tibetan peoples.     

安徽近代文化人物的地理分布与特征

安徽文化人物群体在中国近代史上占据重要地位。从区域人文地理学视角考察,安徽近代文化人物的数量、密度和自然地理分布具有鲜明的地域特征,其中最突出的是文化人物分布中心呈现由皖南山区向沿江平原转移的重大变化。深入研究其地理分布与特征将有助于揭示安徽近代文化人物分布与地域系统间的内在联系及发展规律,为文化发展和人才建设提供历史借鉴。     

当代美国大都市区交通拥堵的治理措施

20世纪70年代以来,交通拥堵已经成为美国大都市区最严重的社会问题之一,因而受到各级政府和社会各界越来越多的关注。为了解决交通拥堵及其产生的社会危害,美国各级政府、民间团体和私人企业等采取了一系列措施,比如扩建公路、发展公共交通、推行共同乘车计划、建立高密度混合开发且公交友好的社区等。然而实施这些措施并没有有效地缓解交通拥堵问题,其根本症结在于汽车、公路和城市低密度蔓延这三者间的互动关系没有得到根本的改善。     

Supra-national Spatial Planning of the Baltic Sea Region and Competing Narratives for Tourism

The paper discusses supra-national spatial planning between 11 countries in the Baltic Sea Region. The focus is on competing narratives for tourism development. Western models of planning introduced to the newly independent post-Soviet States is the underlying theme. The argument is that Western planning thought has become legitimized and is presented to the East as a culturally and socially superior model, based on the presumption that because the newly independent States are moving towards market economies, Western planning models are appropriate. The paper evaluates a specific Western initiated supra-national spatial planning programme for the Baltic Sea Region and evaluates its tourism component. Post-modern concepts such as globalization, deconstruction, and narratives are incorporated in the discussion. The conclusion presents planning lessons and recommendations.     

Reality versus Policy: The Delineation and Testing of Local Labour Market and Spatial Policy Areas

As part of the empirical planning science, this article integrates theory, empirical findings and policy. It first deals with the question how to reach a theoretically well-grounded and empirical applicable delineation of local labour market areas. An inductive classification method is selected based on the behaviour of individual commuters without selecting a priori central places. By this, new urban forms like polynodality are included. In using this method for the Netherlands, 31 local labour market areas (LLAs) were distinguished. Moreover, the article elaborates some simple measures to test the optimality of LLA classifications. The 31 LLAs adequately reflect the 'reality' of actual functional labour market relationships. The article also investigates the matching between reality and the LLA classification as used in spatial policy. There is a large gap between reality and policy. This urges bringing the policy classification more in line with existing LLAs. Alternatively, if one considers the present policy classification as an instrument for future spatial structure, much additional effort will be required. The findings of the article can be easily applied to other European countries.     

南方山区经济开发的历史进程与空间展布

历史时期南方山区经济开发的进程,可区分为三个阶段:(1)自原始稻作农业起源,至2世纪末,南方山区的经济形态以采集渔猎为主、原始种植农业为辅;(2)自六朝至北宋末,低山丘陵地区的河谷、山间盆地逐步被开垦成农田,局部地方形成了梯田,建设了中小型农田水利,但刀耕火种性质的烧?仍是南方山区主导性的垦耕方式;(3)自南宋以迄于明清时期,浙闽山地、南岭山地、川东丘陵山地、粤桂山地、秦巴山地渐次得到全面开发,特别是明清时期,各省际交边山区成为主要开发对象,山地利用达到了新的高度。     

国外养老旅游研究进展与我国借鉴

养老旅游已成为发达国家老年人的重要生活方式.老年人基于生命历程框架而产生的养老旅游动机,可细分为宜居环境、社会关系、老年服务、经济动机等4种类型.养老旅游的时空特征、行为特征介于观光旅游和长期性迁移之间,在生活方式、身份认同、社会整合等方面具有独特规律.通过规范和引导,养老旅游能提升老年人福利水平,促进目的地经济发展和社会进步.我国养老旅游处于快速增长期,具有巨大的市场潜力,但养老旅游研究还相对薄弱,应该结合我国国情加强理论政策研究,以充分发挥其积极效应.     

The Unitary Association Method of Relative Dating and Its Application to Archaeological Data

The primary objective of relative dating techniques is to determine a reliable sequence of archaeological deposits. This task becomes more difficult whenever our research steps beyond individual sites to the study of intercommunity relationships because we need to develop some means of associating unconnected deposits in time. Radiocarbon dating, as a stand-alone method, cannot always be used to draw reliable correlations between sites. The relevance of archaeological dates, including absolute dates, relies ultimately on the determination of artifact or sample associations and their respective superpositional relationships. The Unitary Association Method of Relative Dating is an alternative to seriation methods that is less susceptible to spatial variation and offers analytical strengths needed for regional chronological analyses.     

The Chromatic Traveling-Salesmen Problem and Its Application to Planning and Structuring Geographic Space

The classical traveling-salesman problem involves the establishment of a tour around a set of points in a plane such that each point is intersected only once and the circuit is of minimal total length. When the length of a salesman's tour cannot exceed a specified constant, the problem becomes that of finding the fewest number of salesmen such that every city is visited by a salesman and the length of each salesman's tour does not exceed a specified constant. This is the chromatic traveling-salesmen problem. An algorithm for this problem is developed and is used to create periodic markets in parts of Sierra Leone. Fifteen rural areas were examined from Sierra Leone, and weekly market places were identified in each area. Salesmen were to be assigned to an area so that each market place was visited and each tour (or periodic ring) did not exceed forty hours. The chromatic traveling-salesmen algorithm was used to minimize the number of periodic rings needed for each area and provide the specific tour for each ring.