Hedonic analysis and time‐varying capitalization: An application using school quality

This paper investigates the dynamics of school quality capitalization during the boom–bust cycle of the housing market. We find that the housing downturn led to a sharp increase in capitalization for high‐quality schools, whereas the boom and recovery periods saw a decline in valuation for top schools. Hence, the capitalization of school quality exhibits a strong countercyclical trend with the overall housing market. We test whether our findings are driven by households “trading down” from private schools during downturns or the fact that the housing supply responds asymmetrically during the boom and bust, but we find little support for these propositions.     

RETURN AND ONWARD MIGRATIONS IN CANADA, 1976-1981: AN EXPLANATION BASED ON PERSONAL AND ECOLOGICAL VARIABLES

This paper applies a three-level nested logit model to the micro data of the 1981 Canadian census to explain the 1976-81 interprovincial migration choices of the non-natives (those whose province of residence was different from province of birth), aged 20 to 44, by personal factors and provincial attributes. Important personal factors include mother tongue, level of education, family type, and age. Influential provincial attributes include economic variables (income level, employment growth, and unemployment), distance, and cultural similarity. The main finding is that not only onward migrants but also return migrants were sensitive to the interprovincial variation in economic opportunities.
Dans cet article, nous appliquons un modèle logistique embotéà trois niveaux à des données micro du recensement canadien de 1981 afin ďexpliquer les choix effectués en matière de migration interprovinciale par les non-natifs (ceux résidant hors de leur province de naissance) gés de 20 à 44 ans). Les variables explicatives mises en valeur incluent des variables personnel les (langue maternelle, niveau ďinstruction, genre de famille et ge), des variables écologiques essentiellement économiques (niveau de revenu, croissance de Ľemploi et chdmage) ainsi que des variables relationnelles (distance et similarity culturellé). Selon le principal résultat obtenu, non seulement les migrations de depart mais aussi les migrations de retour sont sensibles aux écarts interprovinciaux en termes ďoccasions économiques.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

Freedom and migration in the Leeward Caribbean, 1838–1848

At emancipation in the British Caribbean in 1838, newly freed blacks in larger territories established “reconstituted peasantries” on non-plantation lands. Similar village adaptations were impossible on some smaller islands where planters continued to control all of the islands' lands. In St Kitts and Nevis landless freemen emigrated to Trinidad by the hundreds to establish individual independence and to support kinsmen and friends left behind. Within a decade most migrants from St Kitts and Nevis had returned. They had thus carved out a “migration adaptation” in response to planter oppression at home and livelihood opportunity elsewhere by expanding individual livelihood spaces across the Caribbean Sea. They thereby began to establish extra-island networks of potential labour destinations while at the same time resisting permanent commitments in any one direction except for periodically returning home. Migration and return has persisted as a widespread livelihood strategy among individuals of small Caribbean islands who continue to face economic and ecological uncertainties, conditions similar to those on St Kitts and Nevis at emancipation. Individual adaptability, not group behaviour, has always been important in migration and return in the Lesser Antilles.     

High-skilled Return Migration and Knowledge-based Development in Poland

It is by now well known that return migration of the highly skilled can have a significant impact on knowledge-based development in the regions to which they return. Whereas previous research has mainly focused on developing and newly industrializing countries, this paper looks at high-skilled return migration in an East European transformation economy, namely Poland. In our paper, we propose an analytical framework which integrates migration theory and regional development perspectives. Based on narrative interviews with high-skilled return migrants in Warsaw and Poznań, we show that high-skilled return migrants have an impact on economic development by acting as both investors and innovators, i.e. that they transfer and successfully integrate financial means as well as different types of knowledge into these local economies. Furthermore, the Polish example illustrates that social relations and institutional context are crucial in understanding how high-skilled return migrants contribute to knowledge-based development.     

Trends in the residential mobility of seniors in Canada, 1961–2006

This article examines residential mobility for seniors 65 years of age and older in Canada using census data from 1961–2006. We addressed three questions. First, have seniors been increasingly likely to change their residential location within Canada or alternatively become increasingly likely to age‐in‐place? Second, has the in‐migration of seniors to Canada from other countries become more pronounced over the years? Third, does the residential mobility of seniors vary by age and sex? We used census data to calculate the percentages of seniors who changed their residence in the five‐year periods prior to each of the 1961–2006 censuses and the percentages of seniors who moved in the previous year for the 1991–2006 censuses. We calculated the percentages of seniors making local moves, longer distance moves within the same province, moves from one province to another, and moves to Canada from another country. We found that rates of residential mobility for seniors tended to increase in the 1961–1981 period but have been lower and relatively consistent from 1986–2006. We found no evidence to suggest a pattern of sustained increase in residential mobility of seniors. We conclude that Canadian seniors tend to age‐in‐place and that when seniors do change residence, the likelihood of residential mobility decreases with the distance of the move and decreases with age. Nevertheless, the likelihood of changing residence may increase for seniors 75+ years of age who need assistance and are at risk of institutionalization. We found that senior women were more likely to change residence locally than senior men. Finally, we found that from 1961 to 2006 between 0.8 percent and 1.4 percent of seniors had migrated to Canada in the five years prior to each census from other countries and that this pattern has fluctuated over the past half century with no clear trend.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

‘Land of Fires’: Urban Growth,Economic Crisis,and Forest Fires in Attica,Greece

This study investigates the spatial distribution and basic characteristics of 2692 forest fires between 2000 and 2011 in Attica, Greece, a rapidly expanding urban region. Fire variables were assessed, together with variables describing the socio‐economic local context in three distinct periods of Athens’ expansion (2000–2003: semi‐compact expansion and economic growth before the 2004 Olympic Games; 2004–2007: infrastructure development and discontinuous expansion following the Olympic Games; 2008–2011: crisis‐driven decline of the construction industry). Fire characteristics changed over the three periods following the negative trends in the construction industry. Burnt areas decreased in the rural area around Athens and the opposite pattern was observed in the peri‐urban belt. Our findings suggest that the temporal and spatial distribution of forest fires in Attica reflects the construction boom stimulated by the 2004 Olympic Games and the subsequent economic crisis.     

Joint Effects of Personal Factors and Ecological Variables on the Interprovincial Migration Pattern of Young Adults in Canada: A Nested Logit Analysis

This paper applies a nested logit model to the 1981 census micro data to study the joint effects of personal factors (sex, mother tongue, nativity, education, and marital status) and ecological variables on the 1976–1981 interprovincial migration pattern of young adults in Canada. In multivariate contexts, personal factors not only are of paramount importance in explaining the departure process but also have significant interactions with ecological variables in determining the destination choice pattern.     

SPACES OF ENCOUNTER–DISPLACEMENT: CONTEMPORARY LABOUR MIGRANTS' RETURN VISITS TO LATVIA

The context of this paper is return visits to the homeland of labour migrants in Europe. The paper draws on data from the author's ethnographic fieldwork on the island of Guernsey and in Latvia during 2010–2012. By theorizing the relevance which the research participants attached to the phenomenon of corporeal co‐presence in relation to these visits, the paper bridges a timegeographic perspective with phenomenological interpretations. It explains how actual experience during the return path is influenced by both past trajectories and future anticipation. Return visits are conceptualized as spaces of encounter‐displacement and illustrated through examples of sensory and emotional experiences of anticipating for the return, the actual travel, time spent in the home area, and departure. The paper suggests that a focus on the body scale can help researchers to gain important insights into how the path is shaped through the corporeal experiences and how it shapes interpretations about home and possible future orientations.     

Urban Unemployment and Migrants in Africa: Evidence from Harare 1985–1994

Unemployment is a major problem in urban centres in sub‐Saharan Africa. The impact of policies associated with structural adjustment programmes has frequently meant major formal job losses in both the public and private sectors. Although it is widely recognized that there has been a major (further) shift into the informal sector, it is also often claimed that ‘unemployment’ rates have greatly increased. When it is also assumed that net rural–urban migration has continued at a rapid pace, this is believed to be a significant contributor to the rise in unemployment. However, because ‘unemployment’ and ‘underemployment’ are hard to measure and to keep discrete when studying urban Africa, it is apparent that there is much confusion over current levels and trends in unemployment. This article discusses the problems of analysing African urban unemployment, drawing in particular on a recent ILO report, and presents evidence from long‐term research on migrants in Harare which casts doubt on the extent to which net in‐migration is a major factor contributing to unemployment in contemporary, economically adjusting sub‐Saharan Africa.     

From temporary to permanent townsmen: migrants from the Malalaua District,Papua New Guinea

An attempt is made to explain how a group of people moved from being newcomers to town in the 1940s to being one of the most permanent and stable residential elements in Papua New Guinea's towns in the 1970s. Circular and permanent migration, as Young maintains, are not 2 distinct processes, and both initial rural urban movements and migrants' decisions to return or not to return home are examined simultaneously. The hypothetical career of a migrant is considered all the way from village residence to permanent urban residence along with the different decision points that might vary this career. In this case study focus is on 2 sets of factors that affect migration decisions: an imbalance in rural and urban economic conditions and the effects of the migration process itself. The people discussed come from what is now known as the Malalaua District of the Gulf Province and are referred to as Malalauas. Historically, there are several feastures of Malalaua urban migration that are important. Malalaua migration began earlier than that of most urban migrant groups in Papua New Guinea. In the 1963 urban population there were a number of Malalauas who first came to Port Moresby before or during World War 2. Migration from the Malalaua District has continued in a steady stream from the 1940s to the 1970s, although there is no evidence on absolute numbers of new migrants in any 1 year. The pattern of Malalaua migration to towns over the entire period has been largely one of the movement of young single adult males and young female adults moving to town on marriage. Both the absolute numbers of migrants and the proportion of Malalauas absent from the District have risen rapidly over the 20 years to 1972. Finally, children are being born to Malalaua migrants in town. Malalauas are possibly the migrant group most firmly established in town. The Malalauas are one of the most longterm and residential groups in Port Moresby. In Papua New Guinea as a whole they must be one of the migrant groups with the greatest commitment to urban living. Economic factors have been very important in Malalau decisions to leave the village, particularly the decisions of adult males. The migration process itself has increasingly affected migrant decisions: factors such as the diminished attraction of a depopulated rural community, a change in tastes towards urban based ways of living, the growth of strong personal and family ties among urban residents, and a simultaneous reduction in such ties with rural residents. It is argued that this 2nd set of factors over time increases in importance relative to rural-urban economic imbalance as an explanation of migration behavior. In general, rural urban economic opportunities have become less important over time. So in the 1970s and 1980s it would be argued that many Malalauas would not respond to increases in urban unemployment of rural incomes by moving back to the village. They would be permanent townspeople. This explanation of migration decisions is dynamic: in the history of individuals and groups the context and thus the explanation of decisions change.     

Academic Migration at the Canada–US Border

This article uses data provided by national faculty directories, individual and departmental websites, interviews, and autobiographical essays to engage the literature on academic migration at the Canada–US borderland. Our goal is to analyze the cross-border migration, spatial patterns, and motivational factors shaping the cross-border flows of academic migrants from one selected discipline. Following a foundational discussion of the related political, economic, and sociocultural push–pull factors influencing the migration of university faculty in Canada and the US during the past four decades, we focus on a case study of two comparative groups of academic migrants to compare the numbers, specializations, academic ranks, location patterns, and interrelated factors of North American academic migrants at the borderlands in recent years.     

Migration to London and transatlantic emigration of indentured servants, 1683–1775

Large-scale migration to London was a central feature of pre-industrial England, enabling the city to grow to a considerable size and preventing over-population in marginal areas of the country, but little is known about the geographical pattern of migration because data are difficult to obtain. It is argued here that 75% of indentured servants bound in London for service in the colonies in America and the West Indies in the period 1683–1775 were two-stage emigrants and their records can be used to establish the pattern of migration to London in the century preceding the industrial revolution. It is shown that London's migration field in this period was very extensive, more than half the migrants coming from areas over 130 km from the city, and more than 21% coming from large towns. The migration pattern of women differed from that of men, in accordance with the principles identified by Ravenstein. It is also shown that the average distance travelled by migrants from England and Wales declined from 166 to 145 km between 1683 and 1775 although migration from Scotland and Ireland increased and the migration field expanded to include America and Asia. For many servants, emigration was simply a further stage in the migration process.     

RURAL–URBAN MIGRATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT: THEORY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS*

ABSTRACT We develop a regional model where, in the city, unemployment prevails because of too high (efficiency) wages, while, in the rural area, workers are paid at their marginal productivity. We characterize the steady‐state equilibrium and show that it is unique. We then consider two policies: decreasing urban unemployment benefits and subsidizing urban employment. We find that decreasing the unemployment benefit in the city creates urban jobs and reduces rural–urban migration since new migrants have to spend some time unemployed before they can find a job in the city. On the other hand, raising employment subsidies increases urban employment but may also increase urban unemployment because it triggers more rural–urban migration. In this respect, the employment subsidy policy can backfire by raising rather than reducing urban unemployment.     

Destination choices of Chinese rural–urban migrant workers: Jobs,amenities, and local spillovers

Using the 2014 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, we analyze rural–urban migrant workers’ destination choices after the global financial crisis, with an emphasis on jobs, amenities, and local spillovers. By using an equilibrium‐sorting model, this paper disentangles local spillovers from local attributes in the estimation process. We employ both an artificial instrumental variable and the provincial highway passenger flow in 1979 to tackle the endogeneity issue. After controlling for the network effects of migrants from the same origin, we find a separate and strong preference for colocating with a large population of migrants, regardless of origin. The results remain robust when we take into account labor supply‐driven migration, spatial autocorrelation between provinces, different industry definitions, and regional differences within provinces. Our results imply that due to institutional barriers, the rural‐migrant community will still be a very important factor in the foreseeable future. In addition, as the ongoing industrial upgrading and transfer policies in China may lead to a westward movement of rural–urban migrants, the movement will be expedited when the older, less educated, or lower income migrants relocate.     

The Implications of Policy Stability for Renewable Energy Innovation in the United States, 1974–2009

Government support and commitment are of particular importance for renewable energy technology innovation activities, which are highly contingent on policy and market uncertainty. The research focus of this article is to examine the relationship between policy stability in public resource allocation and policy outcomes in renewable energy technologies. With time‐series cross‐sectional analyses, we test effects of both the stability and magnitude of federal R&D expenditures on patent applications in five renewable energy sectors (i.e., solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and bioenergy) from 1974 to 2009. The findings show that technology innovation is affected by both the magnitude and stability of government financial commitment. Nevertheless, when industries perceive government support over longer time frames, the magnitude effect loses explanatory power to the stability effect. In addition to federal R&D expenditures, policies pertaining to technology commercialization and marketization are a critical determinant of innovation activities. This study demonstrates that incremental, predictable, and credible expenditures facilitate renewable energy technology development. Conversely, a boom‐bust cycle of resource support fails to translate policy goals into intended results.     

THE ROLE OF FAMILY SUPPORT AND OTHER FACTORS IN RETURNING HOME

The present study focuses on the effect of social and other support from the family in the place of origin of migrants and how it impacts upon migrants’ propensity to return. The study uses longitudinal data from a project in Northeastern Thailand called the Nang Rong Project. The analysis shows that monetary support from the family left behind has a significant effect on migrants’ propensity to return home. Household strategies of migration have played an important role in explaining migration in the Nang Rong setting. At the individual and household level, education, occupation and household size were strongly associated with migrants’ propensity to return to their original village. Among the social support variables, duration of migration has significant effects on migrants’ likelihood of returning home. Three variables—marital status, wealth index and whether the person came with an immediate family member—were found to have weak associations with the dependent variable. A major finding from this study was that migrants who have higher education are more likely to stay at the destination.     

Economic crises in the ASEAN area: types and responses

Southeast Asia, the world region covering the countries of ASEAN, lies at the crossroads between China and India. Since early times it has been part of the global economy, going through cycles of boom and bust at least from the nineteenth century onwards. This essay compares three successive economic crises during the 1880s, 1930s and late 1990s. It shows how different types of crisis reflected as well as produced changes in the connectivity between production factors and institutional arrangements. Whereas the crisis of the 1880s was ‘local’, that of the 1930s was both ‘national’ and ‘delegated global’ and that of the 1990s ‘regional’ in nature. The types of crisis and the ways in which they were handled reflected structural changes in the institutional architecture of the global economy.     

From pioneer migration to family reunification: Polish women’s narratives of lifestyle preferences in Bologna,Italy

In the article I analyse the emergence of lifestyle considerations among former labour migrants and the importance of these new preferences for their choice to settle in the new location. The paper critically engages with the theoretical framework of ‘lifestyle migration’ and discusses its applicability to labour migrants from Central-Eastern Europe settling in Mediterranean countries. I present the interplay between economic and lifestyle reasoning based on two narrative biographical interviews with migrants in Bologna, drawing on my comparative qualitative research in Italy and the UK. The pioneer female migrants went to Italy as care workers in order to fulfill their households’ immediate economic needs. During the years of circular migration the women developed ties to Italy, but found prolonged periods of separation from their families no longer acceptable. The female migrants opted to transfer their whole households to Bologna. Based on the women’s experience and preferences, the families’ consumption preferences and leisure activities transformed in the course of settlement in the Italian city. I claim that lifestyle is a fruitful concept in researching migrants’ changing aspirations, way of life in the new location and the reasons for staying. This approach allows to go beyond the typologies based on the initial motivations for migration.