The irrelevance and (new) relevance of religion in Australian elections

This article assesses religion and voting in Australia since 1987 and examines how Tony Abbott's status as Liberal leader corresponded with changes in leader evaluations and voting, and with significant changes in Australian parties and the electorate. Religious attendance became associated more strongly with Liberal voting in 2010. Catholics voted Liberal significantly more from 2010, in significantly higher numbers they viewed the Liberal leader more positively in 2013, and they viewed the Labor leader significantly less so. Evaluations of Abbott were structured by attitudes about abortion and same-sex marriage, whereas evaluations of Kevin Rudd were not. The article discusses how these results are not unique to Australia, but fit patterns observed with centre-right parties in other western democracies.

本文考察了1987年以来的宗教和投票,并研究了托尼·阿伯特作为自由党党首如何应对在党首评价及投票方面的变化,以及澳大利亚政党和选举上的重大变化。宗教的参与和2010年的自由党投票关系密切。而自2010年起,天主教徒明显地更多投自由党的票;2013年更多天主教徒对自由党领导人做正面评价;他们对工党领导人评价就要低得多。对阿伯特的评价主要取决于堕胎和同性结婚问题,而对陆克文的评价则不是这样。本文讨论了为什么这样的结果并不是澳大利亚的独特现象,其他中右翼当政的西方民主国家也是这样。     

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This article examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left–right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. Spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, however, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the USA. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia's stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

本文研究了2013年澳大利亚联邦选举,以检验两种竞争的投票选择：空间政治和共价议题。作者使用了2013年澳大利亚选举数据进行分析,发现空间政治（用政党认同和左右光谱自定位来测量）和共价议题都对选举的选择有重要影响。不过,空间测量比共价议题更能解释投票的选择,这和英国、加拿大及美国近年的研究形成对照。对这些差异的解释是推理性的,但跟澳大利亚稳定的政党及选举制度有关,包括义务投票、选举频率之类。澳大利亚选民面临着沉重的信息负担,由此而导致了对空间启发的依赖要大于其他地方。     

Public support for ANZUS: Evidence of a generational shift?

Recent polling has shown that younger Australians are less likely to support the alliance with the USA than older Australians. This may reflect the passing of the wartime generation from the Australian population and the rise of a new, better educated, more multicultural Australia less sympathetic to the USA. Some have concluded that Australia may be undergoing a generational shift away from alignment with the USA. In this article, I pool all Australian Election Studies from 1993 to 2013 to assess this possibility. I find that ageing, not formative political experiences, pushes Australians in a more pro-American direction. Additionally, degree holders and Australians from non-Anglo-Australian backgrounds are slightly less likely to support Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), but the alliance still commands comfortable majority support even here. ANZUS is therefore likely to remain a popular component of Australian foreign policy for the foreseeable future.

最近的民调显示,相对于老辈,年轻的澳大利亚人不大会支持美澳联盟。这也许是因为战争一代逝去,受过良好教育、多文化的新一代对美国较少好感。一些人认为澳大利亚正在经历一个代际转移,不再站美国一边。笔者网罗了1993至2013年澳大利亚的全部选举研究,以评估这种可能性。笔者发现,年龄的增长而不是形成阶段的政治经历造成澳大利亚人更为亲美。再有,有学历的和非盎克鲁撒克逊背景的澳大利亚人对澳新美安保条约的支持度要稍低一些。但即便是这部分人口,支持美澳联盟的也占大多数。在可预见的未来,澳新美联盟依然会是澳大利亚对外政策得民意的一部分。     

John Howard and the ‘Anglospherist’ reshaping of Australia

The conceptual category of the Anglosphere never found explicit currency in John Howard's narrative when he was prime minister. While in office, he ostentatiously avoided ‘putting Australia into a particular sphere – Anglo or otherwise’. This article suggests instead that his endeavour to reshape Australia drew on an Anglospherist perspective. The reshaping of Australia he undertook when he won office rested on two pillars of Anglospherism: the rejection of multiculturalism and the alignment to countries with ‘shared values’ in Australia's external relations. The article traces how these two Anglospherist precepts found actual implementation in Howard's re-framing of ‘Australian multiculturalism’ and re-conceptualisation of ‘Australia's engagement with Asia’.

约翰·霍华德担任总理期间,英语圈的说法在他的叙述里并不通行。在他的官方官样文章里,他明确地避免把澳大利亚放进特定的圈子——英语圈也好,别的圈也好。霍华德在职的时候重塑澳大利亚的努力,其实是基于英语圈的视角。他赢得竞选时要重塑澳大利亚的事业,有两个英语圈的支柱：拒绝多元文化;对外关系中优先“持共同价值观”的国家。本文研究了霍华德如何将这两个英语圈思路落实到对“澳大利亚多元文化”的重新塑造、对“澳大利亚与亚洲关系”的重新思考中的。     

The politics of Australia's withdrawal from Iraq

This article examines the complex matrix of public, political and policy debates that were brought to bear on Australia's decision to withdraw from Iraq. In analysing the ‘politics of withdrawal’ in Australia, this article identifies four dominant frames that served to polarise the issue along party-political lines and reduce the complexities of Australia's withdrawal to a set of simple polarities (such as ‘stay the course’ versus ‘responsible withdrawal’). Specifically, these frames obfuscated an assessment of the myriad challenges facing post-Saddam Iraq and the prospects for peace, security and development beyond Australia's withdrawal. Understanding the ways in which Australia framed its decision to disengage from Iraq is critical to further analysis of Australia's approach to current (or future) military draw-downs (such as in Afghanistan), as well as those conducted by other liberal democracies, such as the US and the UK.

澳大利亚从伊拉克撤军的决定引起了公共、政治、政策上的舌剑唇枪,本文探讨了这些辩论的复杂背景。本文分析了澳大利亚的“脱身政治”,发现有四个框框依政党—政治思路将话题两极化,将澳大利亚脱身的复杂性简化成一套极端性（如“坚定不移”对“负责任地脱身”）。特别是这些框框妨碍了对后萨达姆伊拉克所面临的无数挑战的认识,对澳大利亚撤军后的和平、安全、发展前景的认识。理解澳大利亚形成其退出伊拉克决定的方式,对于分析澳大利亚最近的军事低介入（例如在阿富汗）,以及其他自由民主国家如美英的同类选择,都至关紧要。     

Dynamics of electoral expenditure and the ‘arms race’ thesis: The case of New South Wales

Calls for increased regulation are sometimes made in response to what is dubbed an ‘arms race’ in elections – a cost explosion in electoral expenditure driven by the competitive dynamics of elections. In 2010, New South Wales (NSW) adopted the first comprehensive caps on electoral expenditure in Australia on this basis. This paper examines the evidence for a cost explosion over the course of three NSW elections (1999–2007). It finds a significant but unevenly distributed increase in electoral expenditure – over 3 per cent per annum over and above inflation and the growth in voter population. In terms of explaining this spending increase, it finds a close relationship between electoral expenditure and the availability of campaign funds but a less clear one between such expenditure and the ‘winnability’ of the elections.

由于选举中发生的“军备竞赛”——选举的你追我赶造成选举成本的暴增——人们呼吁加强管制。2010年,新南威尔士对选举开销出台了封顶的详细规定,在澳大利亚尚属首次。本文考察了新南威尔士三个选举过程（1999—2007）中成本激增的情况。作者发现选举开销重要但分布不规则的增长——高于通货膨胀及选民增长百分之三。如何解释选举开销的增长呢？作者发现选举开销与选举资金获得的难易程度关系密切,而与选举获胜机会的大小的关系模糊。     

Conservative instinct in Australian political thought: The Federation debates, 1890–1898

Many historians of Australian political thought have attributed its pragmatic and anti-speculative tendencies to a Benthamite influence. Without denying the influence of Bentham and Benthamism on Australian thought and institutional development, this article challenges the assumption that the abovementioned tendencies necessarily betray a Benthamite heritage. By analysing the theoretical justifications for pragmatic, anti-speculative approaches to institutional design in the Federation debates (1890–1898), this article shows that there was a very strong Burkean impulse behind the sort of pragmatism that is usually attributed to Bentham. If the argument of this article is correct, then it is an invitation for historians and political scientists to reconsider significantly the nature of Australian political thought.

研究澳大利亚政治思想的史家将澳大利亚政治思想的实用、反思辨倾向归之于边沁的影响。本文并不否认边氏对澳大利亚思想以及制度发展的影响,但对上述倾向为边氏遗产的说法不能赞同。笔者分析了联邦辩论（1890—1898）中实用的、反思辨的制度设计,指出通常被归到边沁的实用主义,其背后跃动的实乃伯克的思想。如果此论不谬,历史学者和政治学者就应好好考虑澳大利亚政治思想的性质了。     

The third sector and government in Australia: Not-for-profit reform under Labor, 2007–13

The emergence of ‘compacts’ between government and the ‘third’ or ‘not-for-profit’ sector is intimately linked to the comprehensive transformation of the welfare state. The first compacts in the United Kingdom in 1998 spawned similar policy instruments in other jurisdictions, including Australia. In 2006 the Labor opposition led by Kevin Rudd undertook to repair a ‘broken’ relationship between the federal government and the not-for-profit sector. The National Compact, launched in March 2010, was an initial step in a bumpy policy journey. Prime Minister Rudd was replaced in June 2010 by Julia Gillard, who portrayed the National Compact as the ‘foundation stone’ of a broader reform agenda. Although dogged by political instability, Gillard pursued ground-breaking reforms in the not-for-profit policy space. These reforms are now threatened with repeal by the Coalition government elected in 2013. This paper attempts to explain why Labor's reform agenda appears set to unravel.

政府与“第三”即“非盈利”部门之间的协定,与福利国家的综合转型密切相关。自1998年英国出现首个协定以来,类似的政策工具在其他地界像澳大利亚便如雨后春笋。2006年陆克文领导的工党反对派修补了联邦政府与非盈利部门之间破损的关系。2010年启动的国家协定在磕磕绊绊的政策旅行中迈出了第一步。2010年6月陆克文总理卸任,茱莉亚杰拉德接任,她将国家协定描绘成广泛改革议程的“基石”。尽管困于政治动荡,杰拉德还是在非盈利政策空间里进行了开拓性改革。这些改革有可能被2013年当选的联盟党政府所废除。本文探讨了工党的改革计划为什么会开始瓦解。     

Leadership and the media: Gendered framings of Julia Gillard's ‘sexism and misogyny’ speech

This article analyses Australian media portrayals of former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's ‘sexism and misogyny’ speech to parliament in October 2012. Our analysis reveals that coverage of the speech comprised three principal gendered framings: strategic attack, uncontrolled emotional outpouring and hypocrisy. We argue that these framings demonstrate the role the media plays as a gendered mediator, perpetuating the gender double bind that constrains female political leaders, as they negotiate the demand to demonstrate masculine leadership attributes without tarnishing the feminine qualities expected of them. In this instance, gendered media framings limited the saliency of Gillard's speech, curtailed calls for wider introspection on Australian political culture and further disassociated women from political leadership.

本文分析了澳大利亚媒体围绕前总理朱丽娅吉拉德2012年在国会的所做“歧视、憎恶女性”的发言对她所做的描画。对那次讲话的报道主要由三个性别镜框构成。一是战略进攻,二是情绪宣泄,三是伪善。我们认为,这些镜框显示了媒体作为性别化的中介,加固了对女性政治领袖性别上的双重束缚：这些领袖既要展示阳刚的领导作风又要不失社会所期待的一些女性气质。在这个案例中,性别化的媒体报道,将吉拉德讲话狭隘化,妨碍了对澳大利亚政治文化的反思,割裂了女性与政治领导的关系。     

The visual dehumanisation of refugees

Dealing with refugees is one of the most contested political issues in Australia. We examine how media images of asylum seekers have framed ensuing debates during two crucial periods over the past decade. By conducting a content analysis of newspaper front pages we demonstrate that asylum seekers have primarily been represented as medium or large groups and through a focus on boats. We argue that this visual framing, and in particular the relative absence of images that depict individual asylum seekers with recognisable facial features, associates refugees not with a humanitarian challenge, but with threats to sovereignty and security. These dehumanising visual patterns reinforce a politics of fear that explains why refugees are publicly framed as people whose plight, dire as it is, nevertheless does not generate a compassionate political response.

如何对待难民是澳大利亚一个最具争议的政治话题。我们考察了在过去十年中的两个关键时期中媒体的避难者形象是如何影响接下来辩论的。根据笔者对报纸的头版所做的内容分析,避难者主要被再现为中、大型群体,多集中在船上。我们认为,这样的视觉形象、尤其是缺少描画个体避难者脸部特征的形象,不会将避难者同人道主义问题联系起来,而只会同威胁主权及安全相链接。这类非人性化的视觉模式强化了恐惧的政治,这也解释了为什么公众认为难民境遇凄惨,却不给他们政治上的同情。     

Symposium: Australia–US Economic Relations and the Regional Balance of PowerThe Decline of US Economic Power and Influence: Implications for Australian Foreign Policy

Australia faces a complex set of dilemmas in foreign, defence, and economic policy. Australian governments have traditionally relied on the United States to underwrite the country's defence policies, and have regularly demonstrated loyalty to the bilateral strategic alliance. Yet, Australia's economic security has become more dependent on China, a country with which the US has a competitive relationship. This article first reviews theories of competition among great powers. It then analyses key factors that are shaping the region and the Australian policy environment. It is argued that Australia may have much to gain from acting collaboratively with other middle powers within multilateral institutions. In this context, Australia may also benefit from a more robust recognition of its own distinctive national interest.

澳大利亚面临外交、防务、经济政策上一系列的复杂难题。澳政府以往一直是依赖美国为澳国的防务政策签字画押,而且一直对双边战略联盟忠诚不二。但澳大利亚的经济安全却更依赖同美国有着竞争关系的中国。本文梳理了有关大国竞争关系的各种理论,分析了构成地区以及澳大利亚政策环境的诸多因素。作者认为,与中等强国进行多边体制内的合作,会让澳大利益受益非强。坚定不移的强调自己的国家利益,对澳大利亚也是有益的。     

Public Contest through the Popular Media: The Mining Industry's Advertising War against the Australian Labor Government

This article explores the ‘mining tax ad war of 2010’, which contributed to the removal of a first-term Labor prime minister and shaped Australia's Minerals Resource Rent Tax. In particular, it examines the uses, ethics and consequences of advocacy advertising, which is an under-explored aspect of communication power. The article identifies advocacy advertising as an increasingly prevalent technique used by corporations and lobby groups to influence public policy in Australia. In conclusion, the article focuses on the regulatory environment for such campaigns and the areas of future research that might help to safeguard democratic practices.

本文讨论了2010年的矿税广告战,该战把第一任期的工党领袖拉下了马,并造就了澳大利亚矿产资源租赁税。作者特别分析了广告宣传作为一种没太被研究的通讯权力的用途、伦理和结果。本文指出广告宣传日益成为公司和游说集团用以影响澳大利亚公共政策的流行工具。作者最后集中讨论了这类竞争的管制环境,以及有助于保护民主实践的未来研究领域。     

Iraqis exiled in Australia since 2003

This article explores the sociopolitical attitudes and behaviours of a sample group of Iraqi refugees who have been granted protection in Australia since the Iraq War of 2003. It looks at whether individuals in the sample are engaged with the political system in Australia, or are disaffected or alienated by it. The analysis shows that a majority of the sample are apathetic to or alienated by Australia's liberal–democratic political system, the very system that is supposed to be their primary means of inclusion. Such findings suggest that, for this particular sample, the political community and system in Australia lack the reflexivity necessary to recognise new forms of political agency. Instead, it fosters sociopolitical conditions that tend to preclude positive settlement outcomes and the emergence of substantive political membership and representation for these individuals.

本文考察了2003年以来在澳大利亚避难的一组伊拉克人的社会政治态度和行为,看他们是介入还是疏离于澳大利亚的政治制度。本文的分析显示,样本组的大多数人对于澳大利亚的自由民主政治制度是麻木或疏离的。而这个制度号称是接纳这些难民的主要津梁。这说明,对于这个样本来说,澳大利亚的政治共同体和政治制度还缺乏承认新政治主体的反省,容易妨碍积极的定居结果,缺少针对这些个体的实实在在的政治参与和代表性。     

The Presidentialisation of Australian Politics? Kevin Rudd's Leadership of the Australian Labor Party

The presidentialisation debate centres on the question of whether contemporary political leaders in parliamentary systems are more powerful than their predecessors. This article applies the presidentialisation thesis of Poguntke and Webb (2005) to the period in which Kevin Rudd led the federal parliamentary Labor Party in Australia. Their model identifies three distinct faces of presidentialisation: the executive face, the party face and the electoral face. This article argues that the evidence of presidentialisation under Rudd's leadership is mixed. The most compelling evidence is reflected in how Rudd interacted with the Labor Party, rather than his interaction with the executive or impact on voting behaviour.

关于总统化的辩论集中于当前国会的政治领袖是否比他们的前任更有权力。本文将普刚克和韦博（2005）的总统化理论应用于陆克文领导澳大利亚联邦议会工党的时期。他们二人总结了总统化的三个方面：行政面、党派面、选举面。本文指出,陆克文领导时期总统化的证据含混不清。最有说服力的证据倒是反映在陆克文与工党而不是与政府的互动或对选举行为的影响上。     

Symposium: Australia–US Economic Relations and the Regional Balance of PowerAustralia–US Economic Relations following the 2005 Free Trade Agreement

The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into force on 1 January 2005. Australia's exports to the US have since stagnated, while imports into and US investments in Australia have surged. This article analyses Australia–US economic relations with a focus on trade and investment flows. In addition, it examines the capital raising by US investment banks for these projects. The analysis traces the effects on the relationship of the Global Financial Crisis, the resources boom in Australia and the rise of the Australian dollar.

澳美自由贸易协定2005年元旦起生效。自那以来,澳大利亚对美出口止步不前,而来自美国的进口和投资却一路上扬。本文考察了澳美经济关系,重点分析了贸易和投资流。此外作者还研究了美国投资银行为那些项目的融资。以往分析研究探索了全球金融危机、澳大利亚起源开发热以及澳大利亚元升值三者之间关系所受的影响。     

The New South Wales Labor Party's 1927 Rules: A case study of democracy and oligarchy within political parties

Scholars have long recognised a propensity towards oligarchy within political parties. I explore this tendency through an examination of the New South Wales (NSW) Labor Party's 1927 Rules. These reforms are important because, by significantly decentralising power within the party, they demonstrate how the inclination towards oligarchy can be resisted. The adoption of the 1927 Rules, however, also coincided with the increasing centralisation of power in the hands of NSW Labor leader Jack Lang and his allies. This occurred largely in spite of the new rules, not because of them. It was able to happen, however, because the reforms sustained a crucial democratic flaw in the party constitution in that they continued to give excessive power to the leaders of affiliated trade unions.

学者们很早就注意到政党内的寡头化倾向。本文通过对新南威尔士1927年规则的研究,探讨了这种倾向。改革之所以重要,就在于它在党内分散了权力,在于改革表明了寡头化的倾向可以得到遏制。不过,1927规则通过的同时,权力也越发向新南威尔士工党首领杰克郎及其支持者的手里集中。1927规则没能阻止集权,而不是导致了集权。集权之所以发生,是因为改革在党章中保留了一个至关重要的民主弊端,即给予相关工会领导人过大的权力。     

Lobbying and minority government in Australia: The concept of the marginal member

Within Westminster-based majority parliaments, the presence of minority government runs contrary to the conventional wisdom. Over the last 40 years, however, there has been a steady voting trend away from major parties in many of these parliaments. The complex composition of the Australian Senate after July 2014 reinforces that non-ministerial marginal members continue to be a vital part of the political landscape. This article introduces the concept of the marginal member and examines the potential influence of these members for legislative outcomes and lobbying success. In doing so, the article provides a heuristic through which to identify avenues of policy influence and presents a range of strategies for lobbyists working with marginal members within minority-government contexts.

在英式多数制议会内,少数党政府的存不符合传统的智慧。在以往40年里,许多英式议会出现了一种偏离多数党的稳定趋势。澳大利亚参院2014年之后的复杂构成,说明非内阁边缘成员依然是政治格局中有活力的部分。本文提出了边缘成员的概念,考察了他们对立法结果及游说成败的潜在影响力。本文提供了一种关于政策影响渠道的思路,以及在少数党政府的情况下如何游说边缘成员的一系列办法。     

The introduction of Australian digital television: Politics,policy and power

This article discusses the introduction of digital television to Australia, and the competing interests, and conflicts of power, surrounding this. It seeks to explain the primary outcomes of the digital settlement in terms of these interests and these processes of power. It points out how this settlement was very much at odds with the pro-market, deregulatory and competition-oriented reform advanced by the Howard government (and prior to it, the Hawke and Keating governments) in other industry sectors. The digital settlement introduced in 2001 entirely determined what Australians watched on their television screens for the first decade of the 21st century. This article seeks to unpack the processes that led to this outcome.

本文讨论了澳大利亚数字电视的引进以及围绕它的利益博弈和权力斗争。作者力图从利益或权力的角度理解数字电视引进的主要结果。作者指出,数字电视的引进与霍华德政府（以及之前的霍克和基廷政府）推行的市场化、解除管制、竞争导向的改革大相径庭。2001年引进的数字电视整个决定了21世纪头十年澳大利亚人在电视屏幕上看些什么。本文意在揭示通向这一结果的过程。     

Corruption and confidence in Australian political institutions

Corruption is inimical to public support for democratic government. This article uses Australian public opinion surveys to clarify the link between corruption and views of political institutions. The results show that citizens' personal experiences of corruption among public officials are negligible, but that three in four believe that there is some corruption among politicians and almost half believe that corruption in Australia is increasing. Perceptions of corruption matter much more than personal experiences of corrupt public officials in shaping confidence in political institutions. For policy-makers, the findings have implications for how corruption is handled, and in the measures that should be put in place to allay the public's fears about the increase in corruption.

腐败妨碍了公众对民主政府的支持。本文使用澳大利亚舆论调查,澄清了腐败与政治体制观的联系。研究显示公民个人对于公职人员腐败的经验可以忽略不计。倒是四分之三的人相信政客中存在某种腐败,几乎近一半人相信腐败在澳大利亚与日俱增。对腐败的认识,比个人对公职人员中腐败的耳闻目见,对于形成对政治体制的信赖要重要得多。对于政策制定者,这些发现有助于他们处理腐败,采取措施缓和公众对于日增的腐败的恐惧。     

Paul Keating and leadership: Was the ‘personal’ political?

This article proposes three possible reasons why political leaders abide by policy decisions in the face of vigorous opposition – because they perceive the policy to be ‘right’, because abiding by a decision is necessary to appear ‘strong’, or because of personal motives arising from the leader themselves. The article applies this framework to Paul Keating's apparent refusal, as Treasurer in 1989, to consider mortgage relief in the midst of prohibitively high interest rates arising from monetary policy at that time. The article concludes that it is the ‘personal’ dimension that most explains Keating's decision-making on this issue. This is a significant finding given that such personal motives are incapable of legitimation in liberal democratic terms, yet policy decisions arising from them can have an immense impact.

政治领导人在强大的反对力量面前坚持其政策决定。本人分析了三种可能的原因：认定其政策正确;欲显示强大需坚持政策;领导者个人方面的动机。本文根据这个思路分析了保罗齐丁。保罗1989年任澳大利亚财长时面对当时货币政策造成的利率奇高的局面而拒绝考虑抵押减免。笔者认为,个人因素可以解释保罗的决策。这个发见很重要,因为个人动机在自由民主那里虽无合法性,但由此做出的决定却能产生广大的影响。