Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This article examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left–right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. Spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, however, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the USA. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia's stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

本文研究了2013年澳大利亚联邦选举,以检验两种竞争的投票选择：空间政治和共价议题。作者使用了2013年澳大利亚选举数据进行分析,发现空间政治（用政党认同和左右光谱自定位来测量）和共价议题都对选举的选择有重要影响。不过,空间测量比共价议题更能解释投票的选择,这和英国、加拿大及美国近年的研究形成对照。对这些差异的解释是推理性的,但跟澳大利亚稳定的政党及选举制度有关,包括义务投票、选举频率之类。澳大利亚选民面临着沉重的信息负担,由此而导致了对空间启发的依赖要大于其他地方。     

Factors of party system fragmentation: A cross-national study

This article uses a representative sample of elections held in 82 countries of the world (1993–2012) for a statistical analysis of factors that explain the number of parties in national legislative elections. The analysis confirms that the proliferation of candidates and/or parties at the district level contributes to the number of national parties, but the other crucial determinant is party system nationalisation. Several factors that are believed to have an impact on party system fragmentation, such as economic wealth, federalism, linguistic fractionalisation and population size, exert their influence on the number of national parties indirectly, by affecting either the number of district parties or party system nationalisation. At the same time, the significance of many other factors, especially those pertaining to electoral systems and the general political–institutional context, can be properly estimated only if the strongest determinants of system-level fragmentation are controlled for.

本文使用了世界82个国家选举（1993—2012）的代表性样本,对国家立法选举中决定政党数量的因素进行了统计分析。作者认为,地区层次的候选人以及/或政党层出不穷,对全国性政党的数量有所影响,而政党体系的全国化也是一个关键因素。有几个因素估计对政党体系的碎片化有影响,像经济财富、联邦主义、语言及人口规模等等便通过影响地区政党的数量或政党体系的全国化,而对全国性政党的数量产生了间接的影响。与此同时,其他许多因素,尤其是涉及选举制度以及一般政治—体制环境的因素,也可以进行恰当地评估,但要以决定了体制层面碎片化的最强因素作为对照。     

Designing candidate selection methods: Exploring diversity in Australian political parties

The processes political parties use to select their candidates for public office constitute a crucial element of political recruitment in representative democracies and provide important insights into how power is distributed within party organisations. In this article, we develop a typology for understanding the diversity of preselection mechanisms in Australia's major parties that is based on degrees of influence between the central and local components of the party organisation. The typology in turn reflects preselection rules as public expressions of intra-party power sharing arrangements. We also identify the institutional, strategic and normative factors (including electoral systems, the accommodation of intra-party groups, candidate quality, efficiency and social norms) that influence the choices parties have to make when selecting and implementing a particular system.

政党用以选举候选人出任公职的过程构成了代议制民主国家政治遴选的一个关键因素,并提供了理解政党组织内权力分配的一个重要角度。本文根据中央和地方党组织之间影响的不同程度,提出了一种分类法以理解澳大利亚主要政党预选机制的多样性。这种分类法本身反映了作为表达政党内权力分享安排的预选规则。我们还找到了体制、战略以及规范性因素（包括选举制度、党内不同群体的相互适应、候选人品质、效率、社会规范等等）,这些因素会影响政党选择和实施某种制度时的决策。     

The Modi lahar (wave) in the 2014 Indian national election: A critical realignment?

In India's 2014 general election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured an outright majority of seats, the first time any party has done so since 1984. This has led to claims that this is a ‘critical’ or ‘realigning’ election. Yet, most Indian elections are initially described as ‘critical’ elections, which suggests that this concept needs to be further refined to be analytically useful in India's electorally volatile and regionalised political context. This commentary conceptualises critical elections in India as those that enable the winning party to build lasting regional social coalitions. Such coalitions need to be consolidated in subsequent elections for a realignment to take place. A mastery of regional politics was crucial to the BJP's 2014 win, which does mark this as a potentially realigning election. Yet, questions remain about its ability to consolidate the coalitions that delivered this result.

2014年的普选中,印度人民党获得了绝对多数的议席,破了1984以来各政党的记录。这被看作一次“关键性”的、改弦易辙的选举。不过,印度的选举一开始也多被说成“关键性”的选举。所以,这个概念尚需推敲,以便能够用来分析印度变幻不定的选情以及地区化的政情。本文将印度的“关键性”选举界定为获胜党得建立长久的地区社会联盟。这个联盟需要在日后的选举中加固,才谈得上改弦易辙。把握好地区政治对于人民党2014年选举的胜利至关重要,它使得这次选举成为潜在的改弦易辙。但它是否有能力加固联盟以释放改弦易辙的效果,则还是一个问题。     

Profiling Politicians in Solomon Islands: Professionalisation of a Political Elite?

This article examines the key attributes of members of parliament from Solomon Islands. Drawing on bio-data on MPs, interviews and election results, the authors’ findings show that politicians are getting older, have atypical education levels and are from an increasingly diverse range of occupational backgrounds. The authors also find that, while Solomon Islands MPs are a political elite of sorts, they remain tightly tied to their communities. They consider the implications of these findings for research on developmental leadership, political professionalisation and elite theory. They argue that none of these three literatures adequately captures the political trajectories of politicians in Solomon Islands but that this case study contributes to research in these areas.

本文探讨了所罗门群岛议会成员的一些重要属性。作者根据对议员们传记、访谈和选举结果等资料的研究,发现政治家年龄越来越大,教育水平不太典型,职业背景愈益多样。作者同时发现,所罗门群岛议员虽属政治精英,但与各自的社群都保持紧密的联系。作者讨论了这些发现对于发展型领导人、政治职业化及精英理论所具有的意义。作者指出,这三方方面的文献都未能捕捉到所罗门群岛政治家的政治轨迹,而本研究却对此有所贡献。     

Dynamics of electoral expenditure and the ‘arms race’ thesis: The case of New South Wales

Calls for increased regulation are sometimes made in response to what is dubbed an ‘arms race’ in elections – a cost explosion in electoral expenditure driven by the competitive dynamics of elections. In 2010, New South Wales (NSW) adopted the first comprehensive caps on electoral expenditure in Australia on this basis. This paper examines the evidence for a cost explosion over the course of three NSW elections (1999–2007). It finds a significant but unevenly distributed increase in electoral expenditure – over 3 per cent per annum over and above inflation and the growth in voter population. In terms of explaining this spending increase, it finds a close relationship between electoral expenditure and the availability of campaign funds but a less clear one between such expenditure and the ‘winnability’ of the elections.

由于选举中发生的“军备竞赛”——选举的你追我赶造成选举成本的暴增——人们呼吁加强管制。2010年,新南威尔士对选举开销出台了封顶的详细规定,在澳大利亚尚属首次。本文考察了新南威尔士三个选举过程（1999—2007）中成本激增的情况。作者发现选举开销重要但分布不规则的增长——高于通货膨胀及选民增长百分之三。如何解释选举开销的增长呢？作者发现选举开销与选举资金获得的难易程度关系密切,而与选举获胜机会的大小的关系模糊。     

Rational,reverential or experimental? The politics of electoral reform in Oceania

Oceania, with the exception of New Zealand, has received little comparative attention in studies of electoral reform. This article uses evidence from Fiji, Tonga, Papua New Guinea and Nauru, as well as New Zealand and Australia, in order to: understand the process of electoral reform at national and regional levels; examine variation in the process and consider whether theories of electoral reform from elsewhere apply to Oceania. It finds that electoral reform is a highly complex process that is influenced by the self-interest of parties, democratic values and diffusion.

除了新西兰,不大有人从比较选举改革的角度关注大洋洲。本文使用斐济、汤加、巴布亚新几内亚、瑙鲁以及新西兰和澳大利亚的资料,目的是在国家和地区的层面上理解选举改革的过程;探讨过程中的变异,并思考其他地方的选举改革理论是否适用于大洋洲。     

Framing Electoral Reform in the 2011 UK Alternative Vote Referendum Campaign

The 2011 British referendum on the electoral system offered voters a change within the majoritarian family from single-member plurality to the alternative vote. The alternative vote is not proportional, but the ‘yes’ campaign in the United Kingdom included small parties and ‘democracy sector’ organisations previously associated with advocating proportional representation. This anomalous behaviour can be explained by applying social movement theory, especially interpretations related to political opportunity structures and frame analysis. The Liberal Democrats, Electoral Reform Society and others had previously criticised the alternative vote, yet decided to campaign in favour of it. This led to an unclear framing of their objectives and, ultimately, their failure.

2011年英国就选举制进行的公投为这个多数决体系的选民提供了一种从简单多数到排序复选的变革。排序复选并非比例制,但英国的“yes”运动包括先前主张比例代表制的小党和“民主部门”的组织。这样的缺少一贯之道可以用社会运动的理论特别是政治—机会的结构和框架分析来解释。自由民主派、选举改革学会及其他先前批评排序复选制的组织又决定声援它。这造成其目标的模糊和最终的失败。     

Moving beyond the rational choice debate via social capital: The study of illegal private protection

In the context of the epistemological and methodological debates about rational choice (RC) sparked by Green and Shapiro and the subsequent rejoinders, Hindmoor made the theoretical claim that there is now an opportunity for RC to be enhanced and for past debates to be set aside by incorporating different theoretical perspectives into RC. This article presents an example of one context in which this can be done: the study of illegal private protection (IPP) produced by organised criminals and corrupt officials. It extends a rational theory of criminal protection to enable the simultaneous analysis of corrupt protection and augments this approach with theories of social capital (SC). Both positive and negative forms and effects of SC are considered. This approach highlights a middle ground between advocates and critics of RC, demonstrating a capacity to explain patterns in the production of IPP between organisations and across countries.

针对格林、沙皮罗与弗里德曼的否定者所发起的有关理性选择的认识论及方法论论战,辛德摩尔提出一个理论主张：现在正可以通过吸纳不同的视角而弘扬理性选择,以往的辩论可置之一旁。本文讨论了一个可行的案例：有组织犯罪分子造成的非法私人保护。作者应用理性理论于犯罪保护,对腐败保护做了分析,并用社会资本理论扩展了这一方法。作者对社会资本理论的正负短长做了分析。这样的研究强调了介于理性选择理论赞同方与反对方的中间地带,展示对于组织间及跨国非法私人保护的产生的解释能力。     

Women in parliaments in the Pacific region

The island states of the Pacific region are at the bottom of the international league table for the representation of women in parliament. Despite considerable efforts by international agencies and donor governments and by women of the region, progress on increasing representation is extraordinarily slow. Three major explanations for these low levels of representation can be identified. The most common explanation relates to cultural beliefs, while a second account locates the problem in women's socio-economic status. The third explanation argues that there are obstacles for women in the electoral and parliamentary institutions that warrant the introduction of legislated minimum representation of women. Each of these explanations contributes value to our understanding but each also has significant deficiencies, which are identified in the article.

就议会的妇女代表性而论,太平洋地区的岛屿国家可谓国际圆桌会议的垫底。尽管有国际机构和捐助国以及该地区女性的坚持不懈,提高妇女代表性的进展格外缓慢。对于这种低水平的代表性可以有三种解释。最常见的解释与文化观念有关,第二种强调妇女的社会经济地位。第三种解释认为,选举以及议会体制中存在一些障碍,使得妇女的代表性在立法上被最小化。三种解释都有助于我们对问题的理解,但它们又都存在着本文所指出的重要缺陷。     

Classifying electoral systems by input rules: Building on Blais and Rae through Australian experience

By revisiting the work of Blais and Rae, this article develops a new classification of electoral systems focused on input rules. An Unknown Winning Number family is distinguished from a Quota family with known winning numbers for most of the counting process. Branching family trees are developed and used to help explain some Australian experience with accentuated disproportionality in two electoral systems which have been omitted from otherwise path-breaking recent analysis (Taagepera, R. and Shugart, M.S. 1989. Seats and votes: The effects and determinants of electoral systems. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press). These omitted systems are identified as effectively giving electors as many votes as seats available in a district. The input-rule family trees remind us that number of votes is an important component of electoral systems, although elusive and somewhat forgotten in much recent analysis. More conventional groupings of electoral systems are identified as output peer groups.

本文通过重读布莱斯和雷的著作,提出了一种强调输入规则的选举制度的新分类,即未知获胜票数系,以区别于为大多数计票过程所知的获胜票数配额系。该系及其分支有助于解释澳大利亚所经历的两种选举体制的某种不均衡性。这种不均衡性被本来可能具有开创性的最新分析（塔格佩拉与舒噶特的《席位与投票：选举制度的效果和成因》）所忽略。被忽略的制度有效地给予就一个选区既定席位而言尽可能多的票数。输入规则系告诉我们投票数是选举制度的重要组成部分,只是在最新的分析中没被正视,甚至被忽视了。选举制度更传统的分类被定为输出同类组。     

Evolving membership strategies in Australian political parties

Like parties elsewhere, the Australian parties have witnessed a decline in membership activism in recent years and some have suggested that near memberless parties may become the norm. Drawing on elite interviews, party documents and examination of recent organisational reforms, we argue that parties continue to need members and view their involvement as essential to achieving their objectives. In response to declining rates of activism parties have begun to experiment with different forms of membership, such as policy branches, and to expand the traditional notion of membership to include ‘supporters’. We show that membership is a flexible concept that is used by parties to fulfil their institutional functions and electoral objectives, and is defined in unique ways in each sphere of activity. We suggest that accounts of party decline relying on formal membership numbers may be inaccurate.

同其他国家的政党一样,澳大利亚的政党近年来也经历了党员参与的滑坡,以至有人认为无党员政党会成为常态。笔者根据对精英的访谈、政党的文献以及对近年组织改革的考察,指出政党还是要有党员的,党员的参与对于实现政党的目标至关重要。针对参与率走低的情况,一些政党开始尝试不同的参与形式,如政策支部,并延展传统的党员概念,把支持者也包括进来。党员是一个灵活的概念,一些政党用它来实现其体制功能和竞选目的,在每一个活动范围内都有独特的定义。根据正式成员人数统计出来的政党参与走低,是不准确的。     

Liberal party performance and polarisation

Nagel and Wlezien's ‘vacant centre’ theory suggests that parties close to the centre tend to do better when a political system is highly polarised, creating an empty space in the political market. Cross-nationally, this does not seem to be true when overall system polarisation is used as the independent variable: indeed, there seems to be a slight negative relationship. The farther apart conservative and social democratic parties are, however, the better that liberal parties tend to do. This parallels Nagel and Wlezien's findings for Great Britain specifically.

纳格尔和乌勒子安的“空虚中心”理论指出,在政治体系高度两极化、形成政治市场某种空虚的情况下,接近中心的政党可以做得更好。跨国地看,如果把整个系统的两极化看做自变量的话,这种说法不确,二者之间倒是有些负相关。不过,保守党和社会民主党背道而驰得越远,自由党就干得越好。这倒接近纳格尔和乌勒子安对英国情况的总结。     

‘Protectionism,obviously, is not dead’: A case study on New Zealand's biosecurity policy and the causes-of-effects of economic interests

New Zealand is valuable as an extreme case in agricultural trade liberalisation and in market-oriented national biosecurity policy, for exploring the causes-of-effects of economic interests on national biosecurity policy. The article argues that the state is the best advocate of agro-economic interests and that international negotiations on trade liberalisation played a decisive role in the protectionist and economic orientation of New Zealand's biosecurity policies. The study contributes to improving theoretical work on the relationship between international cooperation and domestic reform politics. It suggests a historical-institutionalist and dynamic perspective which incorporates the role of institutionalised vested interests and effect of timing and sequencing. This perspective helps to explain why states' policy preferences originate from economic interests and why patterns of interaction between international and national processes have such a strong effect.

新西兰作为农业贸易自由化以及市场导向的 生物安全政策的一个极端案例,对探讨经济利益与国家生物安全政策的因果联系,是非常有价值的。作者认为,政府是农业经济利益的最佳辩护师,贸易自由化的国际协商对于新西兰生物安全政策的保护主义及经济的取向起了决定性作用。本研究致力于完善有关国际合作及国内改革政策之间关系的理论探讨。本文建议采用一种历史—制度主义以及动态的视角,将制度化的既得利益以及时间、时序的作用纳入视野。这样一种视角有助于解释为什么政府的政策倾向源自经济利益,为什么国际过程与国家过程的互动模式会有如此强烈的效果。     

The Borda Count and its real-world alternatives: Comparing scoring rules in Nauru and Slovenia

This article examines strategic elements of voter behaviour in parliamentary elections where the voting method is a scoring rule other than plurality: the Borda Count, which is used for the election of ethnic minorities in Slovenia, and the Dowdall rule, which is used in the Pacific island state of Nauru in multi-seat districts. After first examining the general properties of scoring rules, and generating theoretical differences between the two rules, we look at empirical evidence from Nauru and Slovenia. This casts a doubt on predictions based simply on a voting rule's mathematical properties and on the accuracy of assumptions of sincere rank ordering.

本文研究了议会选举投票者行为的策略因素。议会选举中的投票方法是一个有别于多数法的计分法则：斯洛文尼亚少数族群选举使用的波达计数法;太平洋岛屿国家瑙鲁多席位选区使用的斗多尔法则。作者首先分析了计分法则的一般属性,并对两种法则做了理论区分。然后研究了瑙鲁和斯洛文尼亚的实证资料。作者对仅仅基于投票规则数学属性的预测以及有关纯粹排行假设的精确性表示了质疑。     

The Presidentialisation of Australian Politics? Kevin Rudd's Leadership of the Australian Labor Party

The presidentialisation debate centres on the question of whether contemporary political leaders in parliamentary systems are more powerful than their predecessors. This article applies the presidentialisation thesis of Poguntke and Webb (2005) to the period in which Kevin Rudd led the federal parliamentary Labor Party in Australia. Their model identifies three distinct faces of presidentialisation: the executive face, the party face and the electoral face. This article argues that the evidence of presidentialisation under Rudd's leadership is mixed. The most compelling evidence is reflected in how Rudd interacted with the Labor Party, rather than his interaction with the executive or impact on voting behaviour.

关于总统化的辩论集中于当前国会的政治领袖是否比他们的前任更有权力。本文将普刚克和韦博（2005）的总统化理论应用于陆克文领导澳大利亚联邦议会工党的时期。他们二人总结了总统化的三个方面：行政面、党派面、选举面。本文指出,陆克文领导时期总统化的证据含混不清。最有说服力的证据倒是反映在陆克文与工党而不是与政府的互动或对选举行为的影响上。     

The Limits of Compulsion: Demographic Influences on Voter Turnout in Australian State Elections

It is often assumed that the problem of electoral participation in Australia has been solved with an entrenched regime of compulsion in enrolment and voting. In recent elections, however, one-fifth of eligible Australians failed to cast a valid vote. This study aims to identify those demographic groups which contribute to this substantial rate of abstention. The authors used Random Forests to model the effects of demographic factors on voter turnout in three Australian state general elections. Results suggest that resource barriers have been generally surmounted, but lower levels of population stability and interaction contribute to a decline in electoral participation. These findings have implications for electoral administration, urban form and compulsion itself.

人们经常说,澳大利益选举参与度的问题已经通过强制性投票解决了。不过在近年的选举中,有五分之一的适龄澳大利亚人没有进行有效投票。本文意在探讨哪些人群造成了如此大比例的弃权。作者使用“随机森林”分析了人口因素对三个州普选结果的影响。结果表明,资源障碍一般说是消除了,但较低的人口稳定与互动水平导致了人们对选举的消极态度。这个发现对于选举的管理、城市的形态以及强制本身都有着参考价值。     

Deterring the ‘boat people’: Explaining the Australian government's People Swap response to asylum seekers

This article examines why Australia has taken a tough stance on ‘boat people’, through an analysis of the Malaysian People Swap response. The findings support the view that populism, wedge politics and a culture of control drive Australia's asylum-seeker policy agenda. The article further argues that these political pressures hold numerous negative implications for the tone of Australia's political debate and the quality of policy formulation, as well as for asylum seekers and refugees themselves.

本文通过分析“马来人交换协议”的反响,探讨了为什么澳大利亚对“船民”采取了一种严厉的立场。根据作者的研究,民粹主义、极端政治以及控制的文化推动了澳大利亚的难民政策。作者指出,这些政治压力给澳大利亚政治辩论的定调以及政策制定的质量,对避难者和难民,都带来消极的影响。     

The politics of lowering the voting age in Australia: Evaluating the evidence

There is a vigorous international debate about lowering the voting age to 16, with some jurisdictions already moving in this direction. The issue of the voting age also intersects with broader normative and empirical approaches to youth political engagement. Using evidence from Australia, this article evaluates empirically the arguments put forward for lowering the voting age. The findings suggest only partial support for lowering the voting age to bring it into line with other government-regulated activities. There is no evidence that lowering the voting age would increase political participation or that young people are more politically mature today than they were in the past. The absence of empirical support for the arguments in favour of lowering of the voting age has implications for how to transform democracy in order to attract greater youth engagement.

是否把选举年龄降到16岁,国际上有着激烈的辩论。有些法律体系已在朝这个方向运动。选举年龄的话题与更广泛的、有关青年政治参与的规范性及经验性研究有所交集。本文根据澳大利亚的资料,从实证的角度评论了主张降低投票年龄的观点。本文的发见仅部分支持降低选举年龄与有关政府法规的接轨。现在无法证明降低选举年龄会提高政治参与,也无法证明今天的年轻人比过去的年轻人政治上更成熟。降低选举年龄的主张缺少实证的支持,那么该如何改变民主制度以吸引年轻人更多的参与呢？     

Rethinking grassroots campaigners in the digital media: The ‘grassroots orchestra’ in Italy

The diffusion of digital media allows the emergence of new types of relations between grassroots campaigners and organisers. This article presents the results of a comparative qualitative study of two Italian cases of grassroots online participation: a local electoral campaign and a single-issue social movement. The first case is ‘Tell your Milano’, a project that took place during the electoral campaign for Mayor of Milan in the spring of 2011. The second case is the ‘Purple People’ (Popolo Viola), an Italian social movement started in 2009 to demand the resignation of the Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi. The article introduces the concept of a ‘grassroots orchestra’: a grassroots campaign aimed at a short-term objective, coordinated by a non-grassroots political actor and performed by a community sharing a uniform and coherent context.

数字媒体的扩散导致了草根运动家与组织者之间新型关系的出现。本文对两个意大利草根在线参与案例——一为地方选举运动,一为独立议题社会运动——做了对比定性研究。前一个案例是所谓“告诉你一个马力诺”,是2011年春米兰市长选举中的一项活动。另一个“紫色人民”始于2009年,是一个要求贝卢斯科尼总理辞职的社会运动。本文引进了“草根乐队”的概念,意即短期目标的草根运动,由非草根政治主体协调,并由处在同一语境中的一个社群来完成。