流动人口居留稳定性的群体分异与空间格局

利用2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文分析了流动人口居留稳定性的总体特征、群体分异和空间差异性,并对流动人口居留稳定性的影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明：①我国跨市流动人口在当前城市的平均居住时间约为5年,新生代流动人口的居留稳定性与老一代并没有显著差异,从事工业行业的流动人口居留稳定性明显低于各类服务业从业者;②省内流动人口的居留稳定性低于省际流动人口,且有更大的可能离开当前城市,转向省际流动;③城市流动人口的规模和居留稳定性在空间格局和影响因素方面均存在明显差异,虽然收入水平和就业机会依然是吸引流动人口的主要因素,但公共服务、住房市场和环境等城市宜居性因素对提高流动人口的居留稳定性更为重要。     

Determinants of Residential Location Choice: How Important Are Local Public Goods in Attracting Homeowners to Central City Locations?*

Abstract. A hybrid conditional logit choice model is estimated using data on the characteristics and destination of homeowners who engaged in intrametropolitan moves among 17 school districts within the Columbus, Ohio area in 1995. The model is used to test the relative influence of local fiscal and public goods versus household‐level characteristics in determining household location choices across central city and suburban school districts. Results provide evidence of both a “natural evolution” of households to the suburbs, due to job location, residential filtering, and household income and lifecycle effects, and “flight from blight,” due to lower school quality, higher crime levels, and lower average income levels in the city. In comparing the magnitudes of these variables, we find that school quality exerts the strongest influence: a 1‐percent increase in the school quality of the city district increases the probability of choosing a city residence by 3.7 percent. In contrast, the effects of household income and other individual characteristics are relatively modest. The findings provide support for a “flight from blight” suburbanization process that is dominated by differences in neighborhood quality between the city and suburbs. An implication is that investments that promote central city development and reduce suburbanization are justified on efficiency grounds if negative externalities are generated by increased concentration of poverty, crime, and low school quality.     

The prehistory of northern Chile: A synthesis

Northern Chile, part of the south central Andes, consists of two main ecological subareas: extreme northern Chile, including the western valleys, and the Atacama Desert and oases. Different ecological conditions obtain in each subarea: puna, altiplano, and precordillera in the highlands; valleys, the desert, and oases in the intermediate zone; and coastal environments along the Pacific shores. In prehistoric times, all these environments were very interconnected. There are three different cultural traditions in the local prehistory: the early hunting and gathering tradition (10,000–4000 B.P.), the Chinchorro Tradition (7500–2500 B.P.), and the Altiplano or Andean Tradition (3000–0 B.P.). This proposed sequence is described, with emphasis on the early Chinchorro adaptations, including the important patterns of mummification, and its possible relation to tropical forest groups of the Amazon basin; and the Pre-Tiwanaku and later Tiwanaku and Inca developments, in relation to the circum-Titicaca region. The data presented in the paper are further developed to explore ideas and hypotheses for future research.     

中国户籍制度现代化演进路径的历史考察(1908—1949)

中国户籍制度的现代化转型是从清末民初开始起步的,当时的执政者把推行现代户籍制度作为实现宪政的一项基本制度条件。国民党执政时期,国民政府把户政建设视为"庶政之母",列为"训政时期"基础性的国家政治建设,即使八年抗战时期也没有停顿,从而构建了一套比较完备的现代户籍法律体系。但是,这个制度建设的步伐在实践中受阻于战乱,到1949年以后则完全中断了。新中国的户籍制度建设走上了另一条路线——计划经济的人口统制管理方式,在各种因素的影响下,最终形成了城乡二元户籍制度。     

西部地区农户经济的空间差异及其发展对策

西部不同地带生态条件的优劣差异决定了西部地区农户经济的空间差异,劣等、中等、优等三类生态条件相应地发育出贫困、温饱、富裕三类群落的农户经济。西部各类农户经济的发展有着不同困难,贫困群落农户脱贫面临人口压力大与生态环境脆弱矛盾突出,及农户人均财政负担重,财政支农能力差的困难,已得温饱的农户面临收入与文化素质低、可带动农户从事产业化经营的企业少的困难,富裕农户面临生产要素流失严重,制度创新滞后的困难。由政府主导,以多种手段、方式带动贫困农户脱贫致富;扶持建立农业合作经营组织,促进已得温饱农户发展农业产业化经营;以制度创新推动富裕农户经济的进一步发展,是应采取的针对性对策。     

Caste and Regional Influences on the Practice of ‘Untouchability’ in India

Millions of people in India are born with scars that will last a lifetime. These are scars of social rather than physical blemish and they reduce the capacity of such persons to function in life, free of prejudice and untainted by stigma. The source of these wounds is the practice of ‘untouchability’, meaning that any physical contact with them is avoided because they are considered ‘unclean’. This article studies the nature of households in India that admit to ‘practising untouchability’ — in the sense of avoiding contact with persons they regard as unclean — and contrasts such households with those that claim to be not ‘practising untouchability’. Such a contrast is possible because the data used, which are from the Indian Human Development Survey, associate with each household a wealth of economic, social and demographic data. Consequently, it is possible to estimate the likelihood of a household practising untouchability, conditional upon the values pertaining to it of a number of relevant factors. These include its social group, its main source of income, the highest educational level of its members, its urban or rural location and its region of residence. The central finding of the analysis is that the practice of untouchability is determined more by the region in which a household is located than by the caste to which it belongs.     

Daily urban systems explained from the household perspective: an exploratory research on how the spatial interactions of the individual households shape the structure of daily urban systems

The concept of the Daily Urban System (DUS) has gained relevance over the past decades as the entity to examine and explain the functionality of the urban landscape. Daily Urban Systems are usually defined and measured by the strength of commuter or shopper flows between the nodes of the system. It is important to realize that these Daily Urban Systems are the accumulated pattern of individuals making frequent, recurring trips to other localities than their own. Understanding the microeconomic decisions behind these spatial interactions will help in assessing the functional and spatial structure of DUS. In this paper is explored how, based on Dutch empirical data, the individual household’s spatial interactions shape the daily urban system and how the destination of these interactions correlates with personal and spatial variables and motives for interaction. The results show that the occurrence of non-local spatial interactions can be explained by the size-based Christallerian hierarchy of the localities of residence, but that it is the regional population – or market potential – that explains and moderates the sorting of households and the intensity and direction of their spatial interactions in the DUS, matching agglomeration theory.     

Studying Immigrant Policy One Law at a Time

This article shows that, in the study of immigrant integration policy in the U.S. states, it is critical to report data and coding decisions for individual laws. This analysis uses an updated and public database of law‐level decisions, which includes 2,703 legislative actions recorded by the National Conference of State Legislatures from 2005 to 2016. These data are used to estimate models of aggregate state policy activity in a variety of ways: as a single continuum of policy balance versus separate models of welcoming and hostile, lumping all policy subareas together versus analyzing a specific subarea, and lumping all years together in one cross section versus panel analysis. The results in these models differ enough to indicate that reporting codes for individual‐level laws is absolutely essential so that each researcher easily can construct the measure that fits his or her theoretical framework best.     

农村居民点空间格局演变及效应研究评述

农村居民点空间分布及其格局演变受到区域自然、社会、经济及历史发展等多重因素的综合影响,是反映人地关系的"真实写照";通过梳理农村居民点用地规模、空间分布、结构体系、景观格局及其驱动机制,进一步归纳总结农村居民点空间格局演变反馈效应及其研究内容框架。本文通过文献综述法和归纳总结法,从农户生计转型、乡村社会关系重构、资源环境问题以及景观生态等方面梳理出农村居民点空间格局演变及效应研究的5个核心问题。从资源效应、环境效应、经济效应、社会效应和生态效应5个方面构建其互馈效应体系和研究内容框架。     

INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION ANALYSIS

A formula for migration rate, proposed by Bogue, Shryock and Hoermann (1957), is modified to yield a simple coefficient of migration intensity for the analysis of the intensity of interregional streams of migration among the 72 oblasts, krays and autonomous republics of the RSFSR, the principal republic of the Soviet Union. The coefficient, which eliminates the impact of the populations of both region of origin and region of destination on the value of the coefficient, is obtained by dividing the shares of all regions of origin in the migration to each region of destination by the shares of the regions of destination in the total population of all regions. The 5112 coefficients of migration intensity are arrayed in a table and subjected to some preliminary analysis of migration patterns. The basic pattern is determined by 171 coefficients with values of 5 or higher, accounting for 3.4 percent of the total number of coefficients.     

A Mathematical Method for Partitioning a Territory

Two regional characteristics—contiguity (connectivity) and compactness—are described mathematically. An integer programming model is constructed to allocate a system of points optimally (in terms of the compactness criterion) to subgroups whose number is not given beforehand. The conditions that each element of the regional breakdown must satisfy are given in the form of linear constraints of the regional population structure.     

新型城镇化下中部流出地村庄的人口转型特征与微观成因——以湖南岳阳市为例

新型城镇化驱动下,乡村人口转型呈现就近非农化不断增强等新特征。本文以岳阳市为例,首先揭示人口转型的总体格局,选定城关型、偏远山区型、传统农业型三个典型村庄,全面透视其外出、常住人口的转型特征,揭示自然本底、地域经济、社会服务的影响。发现：中部地区人口以流向省外为主,但回流增强,主要流向镇街;城关型村庄人口以就近（地）非农化为主;偏远山区村庄异地城镇化为主、就近非农化为辅;传统农业村庄人口外流、就近城镇化与非农化并存;村庄资源禀赋及利用程度、地域经济水平、生活服务配套等对人口外出程度和距离、择居（业）、年龄和家庭结构、村庄兴衰有不同影响,城镇化应因况施策。     

Regional labor markets and the household migration decision

"The current work extends the modeling of the household migration decision to take into account location-specific influences and relates these to regional wage differentials. This allows for more complete analysis of real wage gains or losses associated with migration and inferences regarding the nature of equilibrium or disequilibrium wage differentials between regions." Data are from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the period 1976-1978. "The results indicate systematic and often substantial influences of household location on the nominal wage and on both job and residence mobility. Based on these findings, comparisons of wage growth patterns are made for those changing jobs and region of residence status. Although compared to other households the wage growth of these migrants is on average lower before migration and higher after migration, the analysis provides no support for arguments that nominal regional wage differentials reflect systematic ordering of real wage differentials. This finding suggests that real wage gains are closely tied to the interregional migration decision but are not related to regional nominal wage differentials in a simple fashion."     

人-人感知系统:旅游地形象设计新领域

本文认为旅游者对旅游地形象的感知,除了包括对旅游地所在地理环境实体,例如,风景实体的感知以外,还包括对旅游地中人文社会的抽象感知,它们共同构成旅游地形象感知内容的两大系统:人-地感知系统和人-人感知系统,本文主要分析和建立了人-人感知系统的内涵及其结构,初步探讨了对旅游地进行人-人感知形象设计的目标、方法和过程。     

A nonlinear simulation of the thermal diurnal tide

A simplified middle atmosphere general circulation model is used to investigate the nonlinear behavior of the thermal diurnal tidal waves. In the model, only a westward moving diurnal tide generated by heating with zonal wavenumber 1 is considered. The tidal wave propagation is simulated by a full nonlinear calculation with a convective adjustment scheme and a Richardson number dependent vertical eddy diffusion.The numerical results show that the growth of the diurnal tide due to the density stratification is effectively suppressed and a relatively constant amplitude distribution with height is realized by the convective adjustment in the lower thermosphere. It is also shown that mean zonal winds and mean meridional circulations are induced by the diurnal tidal waves in the region where the tidal waves are breaking by convective instability, in accordance with the wave-mean flow interaction theorem.     

DETERMINANTS OF ADULT MORTALITY IN INDIA

This study attempts to evaluate the factors affecting adult mortality with special emphasis on the lifestyle factors using the 1998–1999 National Family Health Survey (NFHS). The sample size, N, in this analysis is 330,267. It includes those aged 15–59 of which 2.6 per cent died during adulthood. In the Poisson regression model, the independent variables used are age, sex, place of residence, lifestyle factors of other members of the family, standard of living, literacy composition, caste, religion, mass media exposure, household type, fuel for cooking and region of residence. This analysis has been adjusted for the clustering of deaths at the family level. The findings suggest that there is a strong positive relationship between lifestyle factors and premature mortality, even after controlling for other background characteristics of the deceased person. Further, age, standard of living index (SLI), literacy composition, religion, household type and region of residence are some important determinants of adult mortality in India.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

长江三角洲城市入境旅游流区域内流动份额分析

该文运用模糊综合评判法与层次分析理论,结合长江三角洲城市旅游相关研究资料与研究成果,构建了长江三角洲某特定城市的入境旅游者对该区域其它城市旅游目的地选择的模糊综合评判矩阵。该文应用相应的模糊综合评判矩阵分别对上海、南京、杭州、苏州、无锡、宁波等长江三角洲6座城市的入境旅游者对该区域其它城市的旅游流份额进行了定量分析,并对这6座城市在长江三角洲的旅游流流动规律进行了定量分析与评价。     

流动人口对流入地的环境感知及其对定居意愿的影响——基于福州市的调查

基于福州市流动人口调查数据,从生态环境、人文环境和制度环境3个方面分析了流动人口对流入地的环境感知及其群体差异和对定居意愿的影响。研究发现:①流动人口对流入地的环境感知存在层次性,其排序如下:生态环境 > 人文环境 > 制度环境;②流动人口对流入地的环境感知存在群体差异,性别、职业类型、个人及家庭收入和方言适应程度的影响显著;受教育程度和居留时间仅有一定影响;而年龄、婚姻状况的影响不显著;③在控制了个体特征后,流动人口对流入地的环境感知对于提高其定居意愿具有显著的促进作用。