Incorporating Soil Associations into Linear Programming Models for Development of Irrigation Scenarios

An inadequate streamflow supply in Saginaw Bay, Michigan, affects the irrigation development in the region. Linear programming (LP) models are developed in this paper to help irrigation planners determine optimal irrigation scenarios. To incorporate the spatial variations of the soil and climate into the optimization models, soil associations are used as the basic analysis unit for estimating crop yields, irrigation requirements, and expected economic returns. The yields and irrigation requirements of corn, drybeans, and soybeans are simulated by the CERES-MAIZE, BEANGRO, and SOYGRO models at each of the twelve soil associations in the study area over the period of 1951–1980. The yield and irrigation requirement of sugarbeets are simulated by the YIELD model for all the soils in the study area over the period of 1956–1987. The crop prices, simulated crop yields and irrigation requirements, and variable costs are used to compute the expected gross margins and other coefficients in the LP models. The optimization results provide irrigation scenarios that are linked to specific soil associations, which are more useful to decision makers for identifying and targeting individual soils for irrigation development than are the spatially lumped optimal solutions. This study demonstrates that through integration of GIS and simulation models, spatial variations of the climate, soil, and water resources can be better represented in the optimization models to produce more realistic irrigation scenarios.     

Ex-Ante Analysis of the Regional Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: A Rural–Urban Recursive Dynamic CGE Model Approach

A recursive dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is developed to assess the economic impacts of two Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios in six NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) (NUTS-1: major socio-economic regions, NUTS-2: basic regions for the application of regional policies, NUTS-3: small regions for specific diagnoses) regions of the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to assess the scenario effects (change in production, prices, income, employment) in the rural and urban parts of these regions as well as on the different sectors. The two scenarios analysed are related to a 30% reduction in Pillar 1 (market measures and direct support to farmers) support and the introduction of an EU-wide flat rate level of Pillar 1 support complemented by a 45% increase in Pillar 2 (Rural Development Policy) funds. Results show that the overall gross domestic product effects are not significant, due to the relatively low importance of both the agricultural sector and CAP spending in the regional economies. However, impacts on the agricultural sector are quite important and differ according to the nature of the policy shock. Also, the structural characteristics of each case study influence the rural–urban and sectoral spillovers, including impacts on region-specific agricultural activity.     

The Distribution of Subsidized Agricultural Credit in Brazil: Do Interest Groups Matter?

This article examines the unequal distribution of credit and credit subsidies in the Brazilian agricultural sector from 1969 to 1990. Total credit subsidies exceeded US$ 40 billion in this period. The distribution across crops is studied econometrically. After controlling for area, the crops that benefited most had superior access to credit institutions, were tradeable, had high prices, and were not perennials. Proxies for collective action by crop were an unimportant determinant of credit policy, while a bias in favour of large producers was evident. Alternative explanations for this bias are discussed, including collective action by farm size and transaction costs in lending.     

Some Trends in Changes of the Structure and Location of United States Agriculture

Using Lenin's 50-year-old study of United States agriculture as a starting point, the author analyzes structural changes from the Marxist point of view, dealing with such elements as increases in average farm size, mechanization, hired labor, decreases of cultivated land, acreage limitations, and changes in crop specialization.     

Desalting of Water by Natural Freezing for Farm use

The author proposes methods for desalting brackish or salty groundwater in the arid zone for use in animal husbandry and crop raising. Stock-raising needs would be met by storing freshwater obtained in winter for year-round use. Crop production would be made possible by freezing a layer of ice over prospective cropland and saturating the soil with meltwater in the spring as in the basin system of once-a-year irrigation.     

Reconstructing subsistence at the Yingpanshan and Gaoshan sites in Sichuan province,China: Insights from isotope analysis on bone samples and charred crop remains

During the Neolithic period, the Chengdu Plain was a key region where two important crops, rice and millet, were cultivated together. Millet was probably introduced from north-western China c.3500–3300 cal. bce , and rice came from the Middle Yangtze River c.2600 cal. bce . In this study, human and faunal remains, as well as charred crop grains, were collected from the Yingpanshan (3300–2600 cal. bce ) and Gaoshan (2500–2000 cal. bce ) sites where the dominant crop was millet and rice, respectively. Carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were conducted on human bones and the ecofact samples in order to reconstruct the subsistence at the sites. The results indicate that the diets of two individuals recovered from the Yingpanshan site consisted of both C₃- and C₄-based foods, predominantly the former. By contrast, Yingpanshan pigs consumed a large quantity of C₄ fodder. This result, combined with the ecofact evidence, suggests that millet was the main crop at the Yingpanshan site. It also highlights the fact that the two Yingpanshan individuals might be non-locals and/or belonged to later periods. On the other hand, the diet of the Gaoshan community was dominated by C₃-based foods. When considering the archaeobotanical evidence at Baodun, a site contemporaneous with and near to the Gaoshan site, it can be stated that rice was an important food resource for the Gaoshan community. This study also suggests how crops were managed at the two sites. The Yingpanshan people might have used manure for growing millet. Both manuring and irrigation might have also been practised by Gaoshan's rice farmers. However, more studies are required to understand the extent of manuring and irrigation in their agricultural economies.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF HOUSING TRAIT PRICES IN A THIRD WORLD CITY*

ABSTRACT. A first step in the process of economic analysis of housing markets in Third World cities is the econometric analysis of housing trait prices. The information on market price of housing is basic to the derivation/estimation of other market parameters such as housing demand and supply elasticities. In addition, housing trait prices constitute invaluable inputs into the analysis of effects of government housing programs. This paper presents estimates of housing trait prices in a Third World city housing market, the city of Jos in Nigeria. Nonlinear stochastic specification of a policy constrained hedonic price function is presented as an unbiased estimator of housing trait prices. The Box-Cox statistical procedure was employed in the paper to obtain hedonic regression coefficients which are the parameters needed to compute the average prices evaluated both at the mean of each trait and at their margins. The potential uses of housing trait prices for policy analysis are discussed briefly.     

Electoral and partisan influences on Australian fiscal policy from Menzies to Hawke

I examine the controversial questions of whether or not partisanship and electoral motives shape the fiscal policies of Australian governments. I also extend the partisan model of policy choice for the Australian case. Specifically, using time‐series data for the financial years 1962–63 through 1989–90,1 explore partisan and electoral influences on the overall fiscal stance and the personal income transfer payments of the Commonwealth government Results indicate that, net of the influences of inertia in the policy process and of variations in economic forces, partisanship and elections play significant roles in determining both overall fiscal policy and income transfer outlays. Analyses reveal that fiscal policies become more expansionary across the electoral cycle while Labor and coalition governments have large but diminishing partisan effects cm policy over their terms in office.     

REGIONAL CAPITAL FORMATION IN U. S. MANUFACTURING DURING THE 1970s

ABSTRACT The study quantifies the impact of changes in input prices on regional net investment in manufacturing. A neoclassical investment model is estimated for the nation and three regions: North, South, and West. The data base is pooled state observations for the period 1974-78. The regional elasticities of net investment with respect to both input prices and the technology index are computed. The results indicate that net investment is mare sensitive to changes in input prices in the South and West than in the North. The biased technical change affects capital formation the mast in the West.     

Peasant Women and Economic Transformation in The Gambia

Contemporary agricultural development strategies in The Gambia are centred on irrigated rice and vegetables—crops traditionally cultivated by women. Irrigated agriculture, however, is opening up new avenues to capital accumulation at the national, regional and household levels. This article examines the contradictions for women of donor-funded schemes that combine gender equity with productivity objectives. The gender conflicts rife in Gambian irrigation projects point to the significance of female labour for contemporary patterns of agrarian transformation as well as the linkage between women's access to land for independent farming and forms of project participation.     

Why Scotland needs more than just a new migration policy

The Scottish Executive has adopted a policy to combat Scotland's declining population by encouraging inward migration. Using a multi‐state population model this paper presents nine long‐term population scenarios for Scotland using three net international migration levels and three fertility paths. The results show inward migration can slow population decline but makes little difference to population ageing. Without a higher fertility rate Scotland's population will become demographically unsustainable. Our simulations show that a higher fertility rate substantially reduces the future ageing.     

国家精准扶贫政策对贫困农户脱贫增收的效果评价——基于双重差分模型的检验

基于重庆市武陵山区和秦巴山区贫困农户与非贫困农户的调研数据，运用双重差分模型检验精准扶贫政策对贫困农户收入增长的影响。结果表明，贫困农户在精准扶贫政策的支持下，家庭人均纯收入增长显著，与非贫困农户相比差距进一步缩小；家庭主要收入来源，由单一渠道向多渠道转变，人均种植业收入和人均养殖业收入增长最明显，二者贡献率合计达到61.87%；农户的年龄、家庭人口数量、老人小孩数量、耕地面积、耕作半径、是否发展特色产业等因素对贫困农户家庭人均纯收入影响显著。因此，发展特色产业，解决贫困农户的教育、医疗、住房和土地撂荒问题是保障贫困农户脱贫后稳定增收的关键。     

清代陕南土地利用变迁驱动力研究

清代陕西南部地区的土地利用发生了巨大的变化 ,大部分地区由原始林地转变为耕地。影响这一变化 ,或者说导致清代陕南土地利用方式转变的主要驱动力 ,除了人口的机械增长外 ,还有高产作物的引入、优惠的招垦政策和粗放的耕作习俗等。分析并研究导致清代陕南土地利用变化的驱动力 ,对研究历史时期下垫面变化有着十分重要的意义。     

An Economic-Mathematical Model of the Location of Farm Production by Regions of the Soviet Union

A standard model for the optimal use of production capacities is modified by two additional conditions to yield a model of the optimal location of agricultural production. The two conditions are designed to take account of the soil-depleting effect of various crop groups and of crops whose sown areas must be limited for various reasons. The model was used in 1961 and 1962 for 16 crops and 24 regional units.     

TRADITION AND CHANGE IN MARRIAGE PAYMENTS IN VIETNAM, 1963–2000

This study analyses data from the Vietnam Study of Family Change to document trends and determinants of marriage payments in Vietnam from 1963 to 2000. We investigate the extent to which structural and policy transformations influenced the practice of payments, and estimate how societal changes indirectly impacted payments via their effects on population characteristics. Results indicate that marriage payments surged following market reform, but also reveal nuanced trends during earlier years. While the socialist attempts to eradicate brideprice appear to have been successful in the North before economic renovation, they were unsuccessful in the South. Structural and policy change explained most of the observed variations in payments. The changing characteristics of the married individuals mattered relatively less. We interpret the re-emergence of marriage payments as attesting to the resilience of traditional values and the unravelling of the socialist agenda, but also as a reflection of Vietnam's economic prosperity in the 1990s.     

Agricultural change in Copper Age Croatia (ca. 4500–2500 cal B.C)?

The Copper Age in the Carpathian Basin is marked by a distinct change in settlement patterns, material culture, social traditions and subsistence practices; however, few studies address the nature of crop cultivation in the region. This paper examines new archaeobotanical data from 13 Copper Age (ca. 4500–2500 cal BC) sites located in continental Croatia, in order to assess the extent to which crop agriculture may have changed and contributed to overall subsistence economies in the Copper Age. From the archaeobotanical results, a dominance in einkorn and emmer is seen followed by barley. Less frequently millet, naked wheat and spelt/new glume wheat are also recovered, but due to their limited numbers, it is less clear whether they were grown as crops or represent weeds. Pulses (e.g. lentil, pea and grass pea), fruit remains (e.g. cornelian cherry and chinese lantern) and wild plant and weed species are also recovered, although more commonly from the late Copper Age sites. The archaeobotanical results show a clear reduction in the quantity and range of plant species recovered during the early/middle Copper Age; however, this is likely the result of taphonomic bias rather than a reduction in crop cultivation. The results therefore highlight problems of recovery bias in the region, which makes comparisons between sites as well as the reconstruction of crop husbandry regimes difficult. Overall, the results from continental Croatia suggest that the type of crops cultivated continued relatively unchanged from the late Neolithic, although it is clear that more research is desperately needed to explore the relationship between crop agriculture and the changing socio-economic environment of the Copper Age in the region.     

租购同权”政策对学区房溢价的影响研究——基于空间特征价格模型的广州实证

在公共服务对住房市场的影响研究领域，学校质量的资本化效应一直是重要话题。本文借鉴边界固定效应思路，使用广州市2016和2019年136所重点小学周边学区房与相邻非学区房的配对面板数据，利用空间特征价格模型定量测度了不同质量等级教育资源的资本化效应，使用双重差分模型检验了“租购同权”政策对重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响。研究结果表明：①广州市教育质量已部分资本化于住房价格和租金之中，且教育资源越优质，资本化程度越高。②“租购同权”政策的实施，并未带来学区房房价和租金溢价的显著变化。③“租购同权”政策对不同质量等级的重点小学学区房房价影响存在异质性，政策实施后省级重点小学的学区房溢价上升，区级重点小学的学区房溢价下降。④“租购同权”政策对于不同区域重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响无显著差异。本文的研究结论可以为制定教育资源供给与配置的均衡化和公平性政策提供参考。     

Exploring the resilience of Bt cotton's "pro-poor success story"

Expectations play a powerful role in driving technological change. Expectations are often encapsulated in narratives of technological promise that emphasize potential benefits and downplay potential negative impacts. Genetically modified (GM, transgenic) crops have been framed by expectations that they would be an intrinsically "pro-poor" innovation that would contribute powerfully to international agricultural development. However, expectations typically have to be scaled back in the light of experience. Published reviews of the socio-economic impacts of GM crops among poor, small-scale farmers in the developing world indicate that these effects have been very mixed and contingent on the agronomic, socio-economic and institutional settings where the technology has been applied. These conclusions should modulate expectations about the pro-poor potential of GM crop technology and focus attention on the conditions under which it might deliver substantial and sustainable benefits for poor farmers. However, the idea of GM crop technology as an intrinsically pro-poor developmental success story has been sustained in academic, public and policy arenas. This narrative depends upon an analysis that disembeds the technology from the technical, social and institutional contexts in which it is applied. Agricultural development policy should be based on a more rigorous and dispassionate analysis, rather than optimistic expectations alone.     

Optimum temporal and spectral window for monitoring crop marks over archaeological remains in the Mediterranean region

This paper aims to explore the formation of crops marks over archaeological features using remote sensing data. Crop marks are very important to archaeological research since they can reveal in an indirect way buried archaeological remains. Several researches have been able to locate subsurface relics via interpretation of multispectral and hyperspectral satellite images. However the best phenophase (time-window) where these crop marks are enhanced and which spectral bands are the most capable for this enhancement are still an open question for the scientific community. This study aims to address these fundamental aspects of Remote Sensing Archaeology. For this reason an extensive dataset was used: two control archaeological sites were constructed in two different areas of Cyprus (Alampra and Acheleia). In these areas both barley and wheat, were cultivated. In situ spectroradiometric measurements were taken over a whole phenological cycle (2001–2012) for both areas. More than 30 in situ campaigns were performed and more than 2600 ground measurements were collected. The phenological analysis of these measurements have shown that a period of only 15 days is best suitable for monitoring crop marks which is connected with one phenological stage; during the beginning of the boot stage of the crops. This period can be used in areas having similar climatic condition as Cyprus (Mediterranean region). Also as it was found, this phenological stage of crops might be also influenced by the climatic conditions of the area. The evaluation of a proposed Archaeological Index was performed at the Thessalian plain (central Greece), where several Neolithic settlements are established. The evaluation was made using both Hyperion and Landsat images. The results have shown that the proposed Archaeological Index is suitable for the enhancement of crop marks in satellite imagery.     

Comparative policy agendas: a review essay

ABSTRACT

The two books that are investigated in this review essay consider new ways to explain policy processes by focusing on a spectrum of methodological approaches, theories, time periods and political systems. The first book examined investigates policy change in Australia and considers for the first time how relevant the Policy Agendas Project (PAP) is for the Australian political system. A recent contribution to the Comparative Agendas Project (CAP), the second book reviewed is a collection of comparative studies applying different methodologies and theories to analyse CAP datasets with the view to exploring how policy changes in a variety of political systems. Together these books showcase the best of PAP/CAP’s qualities to provide a common platform for cross-comparative policy change studies and standalone country-specific studies. These books are also an indispensable resource for Australian political scientists interested in the unique policy change dynamics in Australia.