A NEW APPROACH TO MODELING THE IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE EVENTS

This paper develops a new methodology to predict the interregional and interindustry impacts of disruptive events. We model the reactions of economic agents by minimizing the information gain between the pre‐ and postevent pattern of economic transactions. The resulting nonlinear program reproduces, as it should, the pre‐event market equilibrium. The methodology is tested further by means of a comparison of this base scenario with two regional production shock scenarios and two interregional trade shock scenarios. The outcomes show a plausible combination of partially compensating demand, supply, and spatial substitution effects, which justifies the further development, testing, and application of this new approach.     

北京市区轨道交通对周边住房租赁价格的影响分析

基于北京市六环内住房租赁样本的交易数据,本文以北京地铁为例,采用空间回归模型实证探讨轨道交通对合租和整租这两种不同方式下的住房租赁价格的影响。结果表明：①基于轨道交通的就业可达性对于租赁价格会产生显著的增值效应,租客愿意为就业可达性较好的住房支付溢价租金。②地铁站点密度对整租的租赁价格具有正向影响,对合租无显著影响,而地铁换乘线路变量未对租赁价格产生显著影响。③轨道交通对合租和整租住房租赁价格的影响随着距离增加呈现差异化的演变规律。合租方式的租赁价格的影响随着实际路网距离的增加呈现单调递减,距站点500m范围内影响最大;而整租方式呈现倒“U”形变化,在500-1500m范围内增值效应最大。针对研究结果,建议政府加大租赁住房供给的同时要充分考虑轨道交通要素,精准施策以实现公共资源的空间高效配置。     

租购同权”政策对学区房溢价的影响研究——基于空间特征价格模型的广州实证

在公共服务对住房市场的影响研究领域，学校质量的资本化效应一直是重要话题。本文借鉴边界固定效应思路，使用广州市2016和2019年136所重点小学周边学区房与相邻非学区房的配对面板数据，利用空间特征价格模型定量测度了不同质量等级教育资源的资本化效应，使用双重差分模型检验了“租购同权”政策对重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响。研究结果表明：①广州市教育质量已部分资本化于住房价格和租金之中，且教育资源越优质，资本化程度越高。②“租购同权”政策的实施，并未带来学区房房价和租金溢价的显著变化。③“租购同权”政策对不同质量等级的重点小学学区房房价影响存在异质性，政策实施后省级重点小学的学区房溢价上升，区级重点小学的学区房溢价下降。④“租购同权”政策对于不同区域重点小学学区房房价和租金溢价的影响无显著差异。本文的研究结论可以为制定教育资源供给与配置的均衡化和公平性政策提供参考。     

THE FULL-DISTRIBUTION APPROACH TO AGGREGATE REPRESENTATION IN THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODELING FRAMEWORK*

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a probabilistic specification of coefficients in the input- output modeling framework. Although previous works on probabilistic input-output models attribute uncertainty to measurement and sampling errors, this specification derives from systematic variation directly attributable to industrial, institutional, and location factors. Experiments with national input-output data support the existence of such variation. Employing the specification not only yields a more flexible aggregate modeling framework capable of producing interval impact estimates, but also an alternative perspective on such issues as interregional differentiation and structural comparison, the identification of key industrial sectors, aggregation, and spatial variation in production.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR REGIONAL MODELING AND IMPACT ANALYSIS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY BY LARGE MUNICIPALITIES IN ONTARIO,CANADA*

ABSTRACT. We propose a mixed fixed and random coefficients framework for regional modeling. The framework allows the presence of both the region-specific effects and commonality of responses across regions. Bayes solutions for estimating parameters of interest and for generating predictions are derived. Within a Bayesian framework a predictive density approach to evaluate the impact of changes is suggested. We apply the methodology to evaluate the impact of new rate structures on Ontario regional demand for electricity.     

北京市老城区菜市场的地方性及其机制研究

地方性研究是人文地理学的重要领域,能够揭示地方的特质特性,从而实现对空间的理解。在后现代思潮影响下,基于地方理论的研究对象开始转向人们日常生活的空间,而质性研究方法尤其适用于这一揭示空间社会意义的研究。本文选取菜市场这一典型城市空间,尝试运用质性方法对其进行地方性的建构并分析其地方性形成机制。研究认为,菜市场的地方性可归为地方空间特性、地方时间特性、地方意义三个方面;地方性的形成机制是地方物质环境、活动者、历史文化和现代性相互作用的过程。研究通过深入理解承载市民生活的空间,希望促进城市空间地方性的传承与发展。     

THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON REGIONAL WAGE INEQUALITY: A SEMIPARAMETRIC APPROACH

According to economic theory, regional migration is a primary mechanism through which regional wage convergence is predicted to occur. However, this does not necessarily imply that regional migration has an equalizing effect on regional inequality. Despite considerable literatures on regional migration and regional wage inequality, little attention has focused on the relationship between the two. This paper investigates one of the primary mechanisms through which migration affects individual region's wage distributions. It adopts a semiparametric procedure to examine how the regional wage distributions in Great Britain have changed as a result of migration using British Household Panel Survey data for 1991–2007.     

SPATIAL BARRIERS AND INFORMATION PROCESSING IN HOUSING MARKETS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER ON HOUSING RETURNS

ABSTRACT. Relative to financial securities markets, information is a scarce commodity in real estate markets. If information diffuses quickly in real estate markets, then we can infer that telecommunications play an important role. On the other hand, spatial barriers such as rivers can slow down the assimilation of relevant information if face-to-face contacts are an important source of information. We examine whether and how the Connecticut River (along with bridges) alters the nature and strength of spatial diffusion of information on housing returns. We report strong evidence that the Connecticut River slows down the spatial diffusion of information and that its effects are consistent with face-to-face contact, as opposed to telecommunications.     

信息技术对南京城市居民休闲活动与出行的影响

从网络休闲角度出发,运用结构方程模型就信息技术对南京城市居民休闲活动与出行的影响进行实证研究,探索居民社会经济属性、信息化水平、网络休闲活动和出行之间的关系。结果显示:信息技术对南京城市居民的休闲活动已经产生了广泛的影响;而网络休闲活动的增加也确实减少了居民每日的非必要性出行时间,说明对居民出行有替代或修正性的影响;此外,居民的社会经济属性是影响居民网络休闲活动和出行选择的根本,其中,年龄和学历,学历和收入,分别是当前影响居民网络休闲活动状况以及居民出行方式选择的关键。     

MEASURING THE DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF A TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH*

The Multiregional Variable Input-Output (MRVIO) model is introduced to measure the development impact of a transportation system. The MRVIO model is a theoretically flexible, computationally simple, and cost-responsive model. Under the MRVIO model, regional input-output coefficients, trade coefficients, and trade flows become cost responsive and easy to compute. The MRVIO model is employed to measure the development impact of the Arkansas waterway during the period of 1974 to 1978. In the study, the U.S. economy is disaggregated into 3 regions and 35 industrial sectors. The MRVIO model estimates the economic conditions of these 3 regions with and without the waterway in terms of industrial output, income, employment, and trade flows.     

RETENTION OF PHOSPHATE IN BURIED CERAMICS: AN ELECTRON MICROBEAM APPROACH

Elevated concentrations of P₂O₅ of 2–12 wt% absolute were observed in the matrices of a small group of ceramics with the electron microprobe. P₂O₅, CaO and FeO^t are enriched towards the surfaces in some cases and elemental correlations suggest precipitation of a crystalline calcium phosphate with a stoichiometry close to CaO · P₂O₅. Scanning electron microscopy with X-ray mapping showed P₂O₅ to be dispersed in the ceramic matrix on a very fine scale, while X-ray diffraction detected no crystalline phosphate. Parallels are drawn with the precipitation of phosphate in the surfaces of weathered glass. It is concluded that the amorphous phases produced on firing behave as chemically active substrates which facilitate the adsorption or precipitation of very fine grained calcium phosphate from the burial environment.     

北京城市老年人社区满意度研究——基于模糊评价法的分析

本文基于对北京市三个典型城市社区中老年人社区满意度的问卷调查,运用模糊评价法,对老年人的社区满意度进行案例研究。结果发现,老年人对社区社会环境较为满意,而对社区服务设施等社区物质环境不满;老年人更关注住房条件,而对社交和人际关系的关注较少。老年人特别重视的因子满意度不高,可能是导致社区满意度的综合模糊结果偏低的原因。进一步通过相关性分析和交叉表分析,从个人属性、家庭结构和所在社区类型等三个层面探讨社区满意度评价的影响因素,发现年龄低、学历高、收入高、与孙辈同住的老年人以及旧城平房社区中老年人社区满意度较高。老年人的社区满意度,将成为测度城市老年人生活品质的重要指标。