Linked population and economic models: some methodological issues in forecasting,analysis, and policy optimization

Some problems associated with demographic-economic forecasting include finding models appropriate for a declining economy with unemployment, using a multiregional approach in an interregional model, finding a way to show differential consumption while endogenizing unemployment, and avoiding unemployment inconsistencies. The solution to these problems involves the construction of an activity-commodity framework, locating it within a group of forecasting models, and indicating possible ratios towards dynamization of the framework. The authors demonstrate the range of impact multipliers that can be derived from the framework and show how these multipliers relate to Leontief input-output multipliers. It is shown that desired population distribution may be obtained by selecting instruments from the economic sphere to produce, through the constraints vector of an activity-commodity framework, targets selected from demographic activities. The next step in this process, empirical exploitation, was carried out by the authors in the United Kingdom, linking an input-output model with a wide selection of demographic and demographic-economic variables. The generally tenuous control which government has over any variables in systems of this type, especially in market economies, makes application in the policy field of the optimization approach a partly conjectural exercise, although the analytic capacity of the approach can provide clear indications of policy directions.     

Methodological problems in the analysis of fossil non-artifactual wood assemblages from archaeological sites

The analysis of fossil wood fragments is often undertaken in relation to the archaeological excavation of a site. However, such analysis does not yet appear to have the strong methodological foundation that the investigation of many other classes of palaeoenvironmental evidence (e.g. seeds and pollen) have. Consequently, it is difficult to evaluate the value of fossil wood analysis at an archaeological site. Using data regarding non-artifactual wood assemblages at one site in southern Scotland, the relative merits of possible analysis are described and discussed. The results from such analyses tend to fall into two broad groups: (I) those of relatively high reliability, and (2) those of relatively low reliability. The results in the former group are often based on moderately secure methodology and tend to provide relatively non-interpretative information (e.g. species lists). On the other hand, those in the latter group are more often based on insecure interpretive methodology and provide relatively more stimulating information, such as evidence for prehistoric woodland management. There are many reasons for this situation, and these are discussed. In conclusion, it is argued that to increase the reliability of results in the second group (in particular), a full understanding of the taphonomy of non-artifactual fossil wood assemblages is needed, and that once this is available attention can then be paid, as elsewhere in environmental archaeology, to the problems of providing statistically valid samples for analysis.     

People,not property: population issues and the neutron bomb

Population issues often factor into militarism as, historically, population was identified with power. The destructive capabilities of weaponry in the twentieth century shifted the role of population as more civilians were at risk, and the introduction of nuclear armaments did so even further. During the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union entered into a nuclear arms race which threatened the earth’s entire population, and the earth itself. The neutron bomb was introduced as a clean weapon, however, and its proponents argued that it would protect property while killing people. This article examines various aspects of population as it related to arguments for and against the neutron bomb, beginning in the 1950s.     

Methodological issues raised by laser particle size analysis of deposits mapped as Clay-with-flints from the Palaeolithic site of Dickett's Field,Yarnhams Farm,Hampshire, UK

Lower and Middle Palaeolithic stone-tools, evidence of the earliest occupation of Britain, are frequently to be found in association with deposits mapped as Clay-with-flints which cap the highest Chalk downland hilltops and plateaux of southern England. These superficial deposits exhibit great lithological variability, i.e. Clay-with-flints sensu lato (including Plateau Drift), Clay-with-flints sensu stricto, loess and waterlain brickearths, on both a local and regional geographical scale. Field observations suggest that particular facies of the Clay-with-flints deposits, in addition to the presence of solution features, may be implicated in the retention of Palaeolithic artefacts on these high-levels. Detailed interpretation of sedimentological analyses is therefore required to identify a ‘preservation potential correlation for Palaeolithic sites on deposits mapped as Clay-with-flints’. Much of what is generally known about the sedimentology of these deposits is found in literature where the classic sieve and sedimentation methods (pipette or hydrometer) have been adopted to determine quantitatively particle size distribution of soils. Refinement in particle-size methodologies of the fine fraction, through the introduction of laser diffraction granulometry, makes it difficult to compare laser research results with published data based on the use of the sieve-sedimentation methods. This presents problems when attempting to use the available data for both intra and inter Palaeolithic site analysis. Our objective was to find suitable limits for the clay, silt and sand fractions to enable calibration between the sieve-sedimentation methods and laser diffraction granulometry (which underestimates the clay fraction). The resultant methodologies, described here, allow such calibrations to be made with confidence. By applying these methodologies, geologists, soil scientists, geomorphologists, archaeologists and other workers can access important comparative sedimentological data that would otherwise not be available for interpretation of the depositional context of the sediments/soils and any artefacts they may contain. Samples from the Palaeolithic site of Dickett's Field, Yarnhams Farm, Holybourne, Hampshire, provided the focus of this work.     

Postcodes and the 1991 census of population: issues,problems and prospects

"The decade between the 1981 and 1991 UK Censuses of Population has seen an enormous increase in the use of the postcode system for locational referencing. To date, no direct means have existed for linking postcoded data to census geography at the most detailed level, but the production of a new ED/postcode directory promises to offer a range of new opportunities for postcode applications following the release of the 1991 Census data. This paper reviews the characteristics of the postcode system, describes the new directory, and examines the methods which will be available for linking the Census and postcodes post-1991."     

Birth control and the fertility of the U. S. Black population, 1880 to 1980

Black fertility in the U. S. declined sharply in the latter part of the 19th century and continued declining up to 1940. Common expert opinion has held that this decline in fertility was not attributable to an increase in birth control practice. Instead, experts hypothesized that the fertility decline was due almost entirely to deleterious changes in health factors among blacks. The health hypothesis is faulty because those black groups with socioeconomic advantages most conducive to good health were the very groups with the lowest fertility rates. A number of recent fertility studies seem to show fairly widespread use of birth control among blacks during the 60 years up to 1940. This widespread use did not increase precipitously in the 1930s but grew gradually over the previous 1/2 century. Knowledge and acceptance levels of birth control were also high during those years among blacks. Similarly, the experts' beliefs that birth control, even if practiced among blacks, did not have much effect on black fertility because "infective" methods were used, birth control was not practiced "effectively," and blacks started birth control practice too late in their reproductive lives have been shown by studies to have no empirical bases.     

A spatial analysis of human fertility in Scotland: Reappraisal and extension

In an earlier study of Scottish fertility (Jones, 1975) it was concluded that a substantial part of the areal variability in county and major city Crude Birth Rates could be attributed to variations in age structure and, to a lesser extent, socio‐economic composition. Because Crude Birth Rate levels are affected by population composition this study seeks to determine the extent to which areal variations in reproduction can be attributed to behavioural rather than structural effects. It is suggested that areal differences in Scottish reproductive behaviour reflect well defined, deeply ingrained and temporally persistent differences within Scottish society.     

Sex,fertility and menstruation among the Beng of the Ivory Coast: a symbolic analysis

An attempt is made in this discussion to relocate the topic of menstruation in a new framework, one not directly defined by gender and not restricted to the view that menstrual blood and menstrual pollution are by definition viewed negatively. The Beng (Ivory Coast) notions of menstruation are explored as they relate to wider concepts of pollution and fertility. The analysis demonstrates how menstrual pollution among the Beng forms part of another type of pollution--the spatio symbolic pollution of human fertility when it is removed from its proper place--and how, rather than debasing women, menstruation serves to have added value to a major aspect of women's labor--that of cooking. There are 3 rules which Beng observe concerning menstruation: no initiated, married, or previously married woman who is menstruating may set foot in the forest for any reason other than to defecate; a menstruating woman may not touch a corpse; and a man may not eat food cooked by his wife during the days she is menstruating, nor may a Master of the Earth eat food cooked by any menstruating woman. At first, these taboos appear to be another case of the pollution of women through menstruation and another instance of women's oppression. When explored, the Master of Earth explained that menstrual blood is considered as special because it carries in it a living being and that menstrual blood is like the flower which must emerge before the fruit--the baby--can be born. No answer was provided to the question of pollution. There seemed to be no other rules specifying what activities a woman should or should not pursue during menstruation. She is not isolated from the flux of social life, and sexual activiity during menstruation, though not commonly done, is not taboo. The fact that it is only working in the forest, and not other activities, that is prohibited to menstruating women reveals that menstruation is not regarded as dangerous to men or as polluting in general. Rather, menstrual blood is seen as a symbol of human fertility, and for this reason is not allowed to touch the forest/fields, which are viewed as a form of Earth fertility. Forest/field fertility and village fertility must be conceptually kept apart, according to the Beng view of the world. Similarly, Beng husbands may not eat food cooked by their menstruating wives for a related reason. Menstruating women who cook are handling crops produced in the forest/fields, and their husbands, with whom they produce (village) children, must therefore avoid contact with such food, lest the 2 realms of village and forest fertility be mixed. Food cooked by menstruating women is agreed by all Beng to be the most delicious of all Beng food, thus giving positive value to an activity of menstruating women.     

Testing child-woman ratios and the own-children method on the 1900 Sweden census: Examples of indirect fertility estimates by socioeconomic status in a historical population

Focusing on the Swedish census of 1900, the child-woman ratio and own-children method have been applied to assess socioeconomic differences in fertility. These indirect estimates of fertility have been compared to the vital statistics at the national level to assess their reliability. This comparison demonstrated that the estimated results suffered from few errors. Even if these indirect estimates of fertility could be affected by possible socioeconomic differences in mortality, the tests show that at least in the Swedish case, the impact of mortality on the indirect measures is limited. As infant mortality differences by socioeconomic status are relatively small, indirect fertility estimates are mainly affected by differences in reproductive behavior.     

An analysis of population and social change in London wards in the 1980s

"This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year periods. The availability of age disaggregated population estimates permits derivation of small area social indicators for intercensal years, for example, of unemployment and mortality. Trends in spatial inequality of such indicators during the 1980s are analysed and point to continuing wide differentials. A typology of population and social indicators gives an indication of the small area distribution of the recent population turnaround in inner London, and of its association with other social processes such as gentrification and ethnic concentration."     

Methodological Principles of the Curriculum of a Geography Faculty

The chairman of the Department of General Physical Geography and Paleogeography reviews the history of the curriculum of the Geography Faculty and proposes reforms. These are designed to train geographers for both academic and applied research, to provide a sound specialization against a background of general geographic courses, to make appropriate use of the exact sciences, to reduce the number of lecture hours and encourage more independent work by students, and to encourage geophysical, geochemical and other cross-disciplines to insure an integrated approach to geography.     

Positional issues, valence issues and the economic geography of voting in British elections

A body of research has built up in recent years linking thechanging geography of party support in British elections tovariations in the country's economic geography. Consistent withthe economic vote model, government support has been shown tobe higher than average in affluent areas and lower than averagein poorer areas. However, the great majority of such studieshave concentrated on elections between 1979 and 1997, a prolongedperiod of one-party rule. This article argues that this meansexisting research cannot differentiate between the very differentpredictions of positional and valence approaches to economicvoting since both suggest identical outcomes during Conservativeadministrations. By contrasting a period of Conservative rulewith a period of Labour rule, however, the article providesa test of the competing claims of the positional and valencearguments for an understanding of Britain's electoral geography.     

中外文明比较研究中的方法论问题

本文主要探讨中外文化比较研究中的方法论问题,提出应将中国古代文明作为世界古代文明的一部分,在研究方法上要破除传统的地域界限,扩大横向比较范围,改进理论建设,建立规范的学术交流机制,积极参与国际合作,大力扶持中青年学者,加强学术监督和学术评论,使我们的比较研究真正在方法上有所变化,有所创新,赶上科技发展的时代潮流。     

Expressions of fertility in the rock art of Bantu-speaking agriculturists

This paper presents an overview of the Late White rock paintings of south-central and southern Africa. It is argued that the most recent paintings were produced by matrilineal or bilateral Bantu-speaking agriculturists, although links with earlier hunter-gatherer groups are also implied. It is noted that certain motifs reoccur over great geographical distances. Ethnographic data are used in order to suggest a possible meaning for these motifs and for the paintings in general. It is argued that many of these paintings embody conceptual associations linking them to fertility. A general outline of the most obvious associations is presented, and a plea is made for detailed regional surveys in order to explain temporal and spatial differences.

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Résumé Cet article présente une vue d'ensemble sur les peintures rupestres Late White d'Afrique australe et du sud de l'Afrique centrale. Il défend l'idée que les peintures les plus récentes ont été produites par des agriculteurs matrilinéaires ou bilatéraux parlant le bantou, tout en supposant des rapports avec des groupes plus anciens vivant de la chasse et de la cueillette. On remarque que certains motifs réapparaissent à de grandes distances géographiques. L'article s'appuie sur des données ethnographiques pour suggérer une signification possible à ces motifs ainsi qu'aux peintures en général. Il démontre que nombreuses de ces peintures représentent des associations conceptuelles les associant à la fertilité. Un aperçu général des associations les plus évidentes est présenté et les auteurs demandent que des études régionales détaillées soient effectuées afin d'expliquer les différences temporelles et spatiales.