Divided Government and the Rise of Social Regulation

Political scientists have debated the causes of divided government since the Reagan administration. In addition, a handful of scholars have also pondered the possible consequences of divided party rule for politics and policy. Still, one serious oversight in the divided'government literature is the potential consequences of divided party rule for the types of policy pursued during divided and unified party regimes. Divided government may create incentives for conflicting institutions to use social regulation debates, often considered the most divisive public policy debates, as "wedges" in order to damage the opposing party in future elections. Each party also has an incentive to embrace social regulation in order to reaffirm its allegiance to its core constituency. This article tests the hypothesis that divided government produces more important social regulation votes than unified government. I define the population of important votes as all Key Votes in the House of Representatives from 1953 to 1998. The data analysis reveals that important social regulation votes are in fact more prominent during eras of divided government than during unified party control. This finding has potential implications for the tenor of our national politics as well as the public trust.     

Policies and performance in the 2019 Australian federal election

ABSTRACT

The Liberal–National Coalition success in the 2019 Australian federal election surprised many observers, with the opinion polls consistently predicting a Labor victory. The election was notable for Labor’s proposals for wide-ranging tax changes, a historically unpopular Labor leader, and the fourth change of prime minister outside an election since 2010. Using the 2019 Australian Election Study, we test the influence of two models of voting, the first based on ideology together with an emphasis on policy, and the second on performance. The results show that performance was the dominant explanation for the result, with evaluations of party competence and leader popularity playing a major role in explaining voting behaviour in the election, both of which benefitted the Coalition.     

Berlusconi,strong government and the Italian state

Over the past decade, state capacity has increased at all levels, including that of central government, and the emergence of effective government in Italy has proved popular. A second trend has been the reassertion of party government since 1996. Given these two trends, the large parliamentary majority obtained by Silvio Berlusconi's alliance, the Casa delle LibertÀ, might be expected to result in strong party government. In fact, Berlusconi's triumph offers something more and something less than party government, challenging Italian democracy. Nevertheless, as a consolidated democracy, Italy should be able to withstand such a challenge. One stable, democratic outcome to Italy's political transformation would be the consolidation of a Schumpeterian model of democracy. This would require the anomalies of the right's accumulation of powers to be resolved, a process which the left could promote by accepting that strong democratic government is a public good, and by organizing itself to challenge Berlusconi by campaigning to provide Italy with such government through parliamentary competition.     

Re-examining Leader Effects: Have Leader Effects Grown in Australian Federal Elections 1990–2004?

It is well established that the popularity of party leaders exerts an important influence on vote choice in modern federal elections. Significant partisan and class de-alignment have been key drivers of this trend. Although Australia's development in this respect has been slower than in some other liberal democracies, it has nonetheless been significant, and has weakened voters' attachments to the major parties. This article examines six federal elections (1990–2004) and investigates whether the electoral impact of party leader popularity is continuing to grow, or whether the impact, although important, has been relatively stable or declining. We also investigate the impact of different methods of calculating leader effects on their implied size and, drawing on new data available in the most recent Australian Election Study surveys, present an alternative model of leadership effects that has not been assessable previously in the Australian context.     

The role of T.A. Smiddy in Fianna Fáil economic policy-making 1932–45

Professor Timothy Aloysius (T.A.) Smiddy was economic advisor to Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Eamon de Valera between 1932 and 1945. Notwithstanding a distinguished public service career, Smiddy’s role as the first independent economic advisor to an Irish political leader post-1922 has escaped examination in the existing literature. This research identifies that Smiddy had a real and prolonged influence on the banking and monetary policies pursued by de Valera during the 1932–45 period. Ultimately, however, the often progressive nature of his proposals was circumscribed by de Valera’s reluctance to supersede the more traditional views of the Department of Finance and the Currency Commission. This paper also identifies that de Valera took a keener interest in economic matters than has been generally assumed. However, such an interest did not result in a coherent, or consistent, Fianna Fáil banking and currency policy in the 1930s and early 1940s.     

Japan's Political Leadership Deficit

Analysts have long pondered the question: 'Who rules in Japan?'. Prime Ministers who have exercised strong leadership have been the exception rather than the rule. Despite the widespread acknowledgment that Japan's political leadership deficit undermines the ability of the government to act swiftly in a crisis and to exercise international leadership in trade and foreign policy, a systematic explanation for Japan's weak political executive is yet to be advanced. While historical and cultural factors cannot be ignored, more relevant in a contemporary context are institutional factors that restrict the power of the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. A parliamentary Cabinet system is not incompatible with strong leadership but, in Japan's case, the inability of the political executive to exercise indisputable authority, or indeed, merely to exercise the legitimate prerogatives of Prime Ministerial and Cabinet Office, is directly attributable to the constraints imposed by a collection of informal power structures within the ruling conservative party and by an autonomous central bureaucracy, all of which have held power away from the political executive. Various institutional remedies are currently being pursued to enhance the leadership of the executive branch. They are part of a deliberately engineered shift in power from non-elected bureaucrats to elected politicians. The reforms will also help to diminish the influence of ruling party factions over personnel selections to executive office and the ascendancy of internal policy cliques within party policymaking.     

Change and Continuity in Irish Politics: The General Election of 2007

Bertie Ahern, the incumbent Taoiseach or Prime Minister of Ireland, was elected to a third term in the general election of 24 May 2007. While Ahern's party, Fianna Fáil, was able to retain its governing coalition, the level of support of some of the other parties changed dramatically. Fine Gael, the principal opposition party, saw its number of seats in the parliament, Dáil Éireann, increase by nineteen. Some of the minor parties did less well than expected or compared to previous elections. Only the Greens maintained their six representatives. As a result, they were rewarded with a share in the new government. This election suggests that, while Irish society is changing rapidly, the political system is changing more slowly and subtly. This article examines the election results in terms of the fate of the political parties and focuses on one constituency, Tipperary South, to illustrate trends in Irish electoral politics.     

“A serious lack of uniformity…”

Abstract

This article attempts to bring to light a rather neglected aspect of the history of Botswana's role in the liberation struggle of southern Africa. It demonstrates that Botswana hosted a whole political party in the form of the Basutoland Congress Party (BCP). Members of this party and others from Lesotho were refugees from Prime Minister Chief Leabua Jonathan's repressive rule in Lesotho from 1974 to 1986. In 1974 the opposition BCP resorted to acts of sabotage against Jonathan's government which responded with more repression leading to members of the BCP Central Committee fleeing the country and became refugees in Botswana. The Basotho refugees were largely welcome and contributed to the educational and economic development in the country. Some of them became prosperous businessmen in Botswana. This is different from later situations where economic prosperity on the part of a refugee community breeds resentment and xenophobia by some sections of the host population. However, while some BCP leaders prospered in Botswana the party itself was later faced with serious internal power wrangling and split.     

Questions of deception: contested understandings of the polls on WMD,political leaders and governments in Australia,Britain and the United States

The weapons of mass destruction (WMD) Saddam Hussein was said to possess were central to the justification the Australian Prime Minister gave for Australia's decision to go to war in Iraq. When no WMD materialised, poll data suggested that the public felt misled. But the same data suggested that support for both the government and the Prime Minister was unaffected. Among critics of the war, this generated a moral panic about Australian democracy and the Australian public—its commitment to the end justifying the means, its failure to receive a lead from the Labor Party, its widespread apathy. It also led to an intense debate about why the charge of not telling the truth had weakened public support for Blair and Bush but not for Howard. This article explores the concerns expressed by critics of the war in the face of polling that suggested that Australians were prepared to support a government and its leader that had misled them—deliberately or otherwise. It raises questions about the contrasts drawn between polled opinion in Australia, Britain and the United States. And it argues that the differences in the pattern of opinion across the three countries were not marked and that what had cost governments support were views about how the war was going, not the failure to find WMD.     

The Twenty-First Century Federalist

It is unlikely a “third party” will arise to threaten the two-party duopoly that has governed American politics since 1828. It is, however, possible that a new political movement will arise within the Republican Party, stake out new ideological terrain, and make a bid for control of the party apparatus. Movements arise when parties fail to address public challenges, policy entrepreneurs recognize the opportunity, and resources are available to make a bid feasible. Today the two parties have failed to address the increasing fragmentation of American public life. They have, in fact, contributed to fragmentation by appealing to identity politics and by attempting to use the national government as a tool of legal and judicial force against their opponents. A new political movement centered on federalism—the restoration of state and local government and a balance of power between the states and the national government—offers the hope of allowing cultural pluralism to flourish within an overarching political unity. It remains for enterprising candidates to recognize the opportunity and donors to fund them.     

Italy says no: the 2016 constitutional referendum and its consequences

On 4 December 2016, Italians went to the polls to say yes or no in a popular referendum called by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on his package of constitutional reforms. Turnout was very high: 65.5 per cent. The No vote scored an impressive victory: 59.1 per cent rejected those reforms; 40.9 per cent supported them. This article puts those reforms in the context of previous attempts to modify several articles of the Italian constitution. The authors analyze and criticize the substance of those reforms and explain their possible impact on the functioning of the Italian political system. The Yes and No alignments were somewhat diversified, while the Yes vote got a lot of support from an often curious combination of domestic and foreign bedfellows interested in the political stability of Renzi’s government more than in any specific reform. Renzi’s defeat led to his resignation. A new government was immediately formed. It is unclear when and whether other, different constitutional reforms will be formulated. The Italian political and institutional transition continues while once again attention is focused on the electoral law and on how to restructure the parties and the party system.     

Partisan Identification and Attitudes to Big Versus Small Government in Australia: Evidence from the ISSP

In Australian politics, Labor has traditionally been thought of as the party of big government and the Liberals the party of small government. Drawing from evidence from the 1985, 1990, 1996 and 2007 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) Role of Government surveys, this article examines public opinion in relation to the role of government and how public attitudes towards government differ according to party identification. It is reasonable to expect that Labor Party identifiers would be more supportive of big government, but there is little empirical evidence to support this expectation. This article shows that citizens' attitudes still accord with the Labor–Liberal/big–small government dichotomy and shows partisan identification to have an enduring effect on attitudes towards the role of government, net of other factors.     

Surfing and trying to keep afloat: The political communication process in a highly fragmented coalition led by a ‘Great Mediator’

This article analyses the experience of the second Prodi government from the standpoint of its political communication. The opening part contextualises the case by placing it within the broader framework of coalition governments generally, and briefly outlines the critical elements that, in Italy, prevent any majority from making a genuinely strategic use of communication in the policy-making process. The second part focuses on Prodi's poor communication, highlighting both its limits and the attempts at improvement made by the leader and his staff in 2007. Finally, the third part examines the journalistic coverage of the centre-left majority and considers the trend in public approval for the premier and the government, emphasising the problems that emerged on each side.     

The Fiscal-Electoral Nexus in Australia, 1976-94

This article re-evaluates existing political business cycle theory in the specific context of the political economy of Australian fiscal policy since the mid-1970s. Whereas 'traditional' political business cycle models, formulated within a Keynesian framework, assume a high level of state autonomy over fiscal policy, this article argues that an environment of fiscal restraint has been imposed on Australian federal governments over the study period. Given the historical dynamics of Australian economic policy which inform this study, a hypothesis is developed which reflects the policy optimisation dilemma which has confronted Australian federal governments when formulating fiscal priorities in a pre-election context. On one hand, there are pre-poll demands for expansionary fiscal settings from the electorate; on the other, there are demands from financial markets and domestic neoliberal interests for fiscal restraint. Reflecting the fact that identifiable costs are associated with implementing expansionary fiscal policy settings, it is hypothesised that such an approach will be adopted only in times of greatest political need, when an incumbent government is facing a popularity deficit in a pre-election context. While the study confirms that the fiscal-electoral effect is relatively weak, electoral demands do still influence the fiscal priorities of Australian federal governments. This is particularly so with the case of personal taxation relief, a policy approach that appears to be more acceptable to financial markets, key neoliberal interests and some segments of the electorate.     

Party organisational change in Italy (1991–2006)

This article analyses, adopting the well-known approach of Katz and Mair, the issue of organizational change within Italian political parties since 1990. In addition to an account of trends in membership, local units, finances, staff, and of changes in party statutes, the article aims at testing the widespread view in the literature that organizational resources–hence power–are becoming more and more concentrated in the hands of party and/or parliamentary leaders, and correspondingly that the territorial presence of parties is declining. The analysis of the change over time of Katz and Mair's party organisational ‘faces’ leads to the confirmation, to a large extent, of the overall hypothesis of a decline of the party at ground level, and a concentration of party resources in the central office, and above all in the party in public office.     

The Norwegian 9/11: In the Church Without a Bible

The article identifies roles and conditions for the Bible within modern politics in the West. By comparing the official Norwegian response to the terror attack in Oslo July 22, 2011, with the similar response in the US on September 11, 2001, it is explained why the Bible is nearly absent in the official discourse of Norwegian Prime Ministers. While religion resurfaced in the process of national recuperation with the Cathedral of Oslo as a center for mass ritualization and national grief, the biblical legacy played no part in the Prime Minister's speech. The primary political leader of the Norwegian state has rarely bolstered his argument with the Bible, although this state has officially adhered to a Protestant confession from its Constitution in 1814. The Liberal Bible that appears to be operative in US presidential discourse is not playing a major role on a comparable political level in Norway.     

Religion and Politics in the Howard Decade

The interaction between religion and politics is varied, complex and often heated. It involves constitutional issues, voting behaviour, party composition and electoral competition, faith-based public administration, advocacy and lobbying by churches, mutual criticism by churches and the state, and the public presentation of religious values. This article is a comprehensive mapping and discussion of a range of the major religion and politics issues in Australia since the election of the Howard government in 1996. This has been a decade in which religion has had a higher political profile than at any time since the 1950s Labor Split. One feature has been the rise to prominence of Catholics in the Coalition parties, whereas they featured heavily on the other side during the Labor Split. It is a more intellectually interesting decade than the 1950s because the influence of religion has crossed denominational and faith boundaries from the mainstream Christian churches to the newer Evangelical Christian churches and to non-Christian religions such as Islam. The overall impact of religious intervention appears to have favoured the Coalition parties, but many unanswered questions remain about the motivation and impact of these developments, and there are numerous opportunities for further research.     

Between myth and reality: the euro crisis and the downfall of Silvio Berlusconi

In mid-November 2011, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi tendered his formal resignation to President Giorgio Napolitano. It was a humiliating ‘political exit’ for the controversial Italian leader who had been the dominant figure in Italian politics since the mid-1990s. With Italy in the throes of an unprecedented financial crisis, Berlusconi’s squabbling centre-right coalition had appeared increasingly incapable of dealing with the economic emergency engulfing the country. To restore credibility, Napolitano appointed Mario Monti who quickly put together an emergency government. Since then, the downfall of Italy’s longest-serving post-war prime minister has generated a good deal of controversy. Allegations that Berlusconi was pushed out of power by a cabal of domestic and international detractors have been rife both inside and outside Italy. But how plausible are these claims? Was Berlusconi brought down by a conspiracy orchestrated by Napolitano and instigated by Italy’s EU partners? This article will address these questions and, to do so, it will chart the dramatic events that led to his downfall and examine the international and domestic contexts in which these events took place.     

Government performance and dissatisfaction with democracy in Australia

ABSTRACT

Satisfaction with democracy has declined rapidly in Australia, reaching the lowest level recorded since the 1970s in 2019. Whereas Australian citizens used to be among the most satisfied democrats in the world, there is now evidence of widespread dissatisfaction. What explains this rapid decline in political support? Comparative studies emphasise the role of government performance, both political and economic, in shaping citizens’ attitudes towards the political system. This paper examines the role of government performance in shaping satisfaction with democracy in Australia, using Australian Election Study data from 1996 to 2019. The results demonstrate that frequent changes of prime minister, which a majority of voters disapproved of, and rising economic pessimism contributed to the decline of democratic satisfaction in Australia.     

三国时期的薄葬风俗述论

丧葬的厚与薄同伦理道德、政治经济状况、社会舆论、政府导向等因素密切相关。三国时期,丧葬风俗由两汉时的多为奢侈转为力求薄葬,具有范围广、已形成于律令、丧制、墓葬规制与明器皆有明显变化等鲜明的特点。经济的凋敝、老庄思想的流行以及对盗墓的恐惧是产生这种变化的主要原因。