Conceptualising Future Threats to Australia's Security

Much of the recent Australian security studies literature has focused on contemporary challenges to Australia's role in Asia, the evolving trajectory of defence strategy, and the various factors that have shaped the nation's ‘discourse of threats’. While this body of work is important and valuable, there is a distinct lack of scholarship that discusses the types of future security threats likely to confront Australian policy makers in the twenty-first century. Indeed, there is a tendency among scholars to assume that this sort of ‘futures’ work is best left to those outside the academy. I argue, however, that it is an area which is too important to leave to the authors of defence White Papers, think tank reports, and classified strategic assessments. Australia's future security environment in a complex international system has not been subject to the sort of systematic scholarly analysis the topic merits. This article seeks to provide a stepping stone for more substantial work in the area and outlines a conceptual framework that can aid us in understanding the factors likely to impact on Australia's security environment in the early part of the twenty-first century.     

US protection of underwater cultural heritage beyond the territorial sea: problems and prospects

Current US treatment of underwater cultural heritage beyond the territorial sea is analysed in light of Law of the Sea principles and the UNESCO Draft Convention on the Protection of the Underwater Cultural Heritage.     

Rethinking the NPT's role in security: 2010 and beyond

As the states parties to the nuclear Non‐Proliferation Treaty (NPT) plan for the May 2010 review conference, they are faced with recurring political challenges that call into question the long‐term sustainability of the presently constituted non‐proliferation regime, notwithstanding the important role the NPT and its related institutions have played in slowing the pace of proliferation for four decades. Even if the review conference is deemed a success, its outcome is unlikely to address the regime's core structural weaknesses and normative contradictions. Frustration with the continuing status and benefits accorded to nuclear‐armed states outside as well as within the NPT, will continue to diminish confidence in the effectiveness of traditional non‐proliferation and deterrence practices. The progressive reframing of security in terms of creating a world without nuclear weapons may be little more than rhetoric for some leaders, but it has widespread public support. A growing number of governments are now expressing interest in new approaches and steps, including consideration of a nuclear weapons convention as a practical objective to work towards. The article discusses the challenges and options for the non‐proliferation regime and concludes that efforts to halt future proliferation will increasingly focus on reshaping the norms and rules to pave the way for negotiating a new nuclear security compact, based on a verified process to prohibit and eliminate the possession as well as the use of nuclear weapons.     

The sustainability and some consequences of Chinese economic growth

During the past 27 years, China's economy and relationship with the outside world has been transformed. The magnitude of annual economic growth and rapid increase in the volume of output of goods and services raise unsettling questions about potential threats to the sustainability of current growth levels and implications for economic and political stability. This paper examines the sources of economic growth and concludes the strong state system, high rates of saving and investment and demographic structure will sustain growth. Chinese authorities must be aware that a failure to maintain the process of financial and political institutional reform or to address the widening regional income inequalities poses potential domestic threats to sustainable growth. Tensions remain in China's international relationships, forcing China to consider further adjustment and accommodation in its regional security and economic relationships.     

Employment-motivated migration and economic growth in post-industrial market economies

The author reviews the literature on the relationship between migration and economic development in post-industrial market economies. Various models and theories concerned with this relationship are described and evaluated. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between migration and regional development     

The Third Review Conference of the Chemical Weapons Convention and beyond: key themes and the prospects of incremental change

States parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) will convene for the Third Review Conference of the treaty in April 2013. With the destruction of chemical weapon stockpiles more than 75 per cent complete and ongoing changes in the scientific, industrial and security environment in which the CWC operates, some have argued that major adaptations in the implementation of the treaty are required. However, on the basis of regular participant observation at CWC meetings of states parties and extensive document analysis this article argues that changes in treaty implementation will be only of an incremental nature with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) taking on new tasks in the areas of chemical terrorism and safety and security, alongside traditional core areas of activity in CWC implementation such as verification of chemical weapon disarmament, non‐proliferation or, rather, non‐acquisition of chemical weapons, protection and assistance against the threat or use of chemical weapons, and international cooperation in the peaceful uses of chemistry. Taking into account the evolution of these areas of concern in combination with the consensus‐based institutional culture of the OPCW supports the expectation of only incremental changes being adopted at the Third CWC Review Conference. These expectations tie in with the findings of organizational analyses in other political contexts, which highlight the path dependency of many institutions once they are created.     

Salmon and fruit salad: Australia's response to world trade organisation quarantine disputes

The introduction of new quarantine disciplines under World Trade Organisation (WTO) agreements has given rise to tensions within the Australian federation over quarantine measures. This paper examines WTO disciplines and rules as they affect trade in agriculture and food products. It highlights the significance of risk assessment in the policy process relating to quarantine, identifies key issues arising from the WTO Australia—Salmon case and outlines the cases currently tabled at the WTO for settlement with Australia named as respondent. The paper concludes by identifying the lessons from the salmon case in terms of intergovernmental interaction and policy learning within the Australian federation.     

Asia's role in twenty‐first‐century global economic governance

The basic foundations of today's framework for global economic governance were laid in the years following the Second World War. Reflecting the balance of economic power at the time, Asia did not play a major role in either designing the institutional architecture or setting the agenda for global economic governance. In more recent decades the centre of gravity of the global economy has shifted towards Asia, and this trend is likely to continue in the decades to come. Asia's growing economic weight enhances its potential to play a much stronger role in shaping twenty‐first‐century global economic governance. Realization of that potential will, however, depend upon how successfully Asia addresses five key challenges: rebalancing sources of growth; strengthening national governance; institutionalizing regional integration; providing political leadership; and adopting the global lingua franca—English. While the Asian policy‐makers' ambition to play a bigger role in global economic governance is growing, their appetite for addressing the necessary policy challenges is not necessarily keeping pace with that growing ambition. This gap between ambition and action will need to be gradually closed—only then can Asia help itself in playing a bigger role in global economic governance.     

Open-economy Central Banking: Explaining Australia's Recommitment to Central Bank Independence

Why do governments offload major instruments such as monetary policy to an independent central bank? This article answers this question in relation to the Australian case, a case which reflects wider global developments. The article challenges the methodology of quantitative approaches to explaining central bank independence and instead argues that a model of 'embedded statism' is the most fruitful explanatory approach.