Turnout,preferential voting and vote flows in the E.U. election1

ABSTRACT

This article aims at focusing on four main features of the European elections that were held on 26 May 2019. Firstly, it analyses electoral turnout, both from a diachronic and a geographical point of view. Secondly, it presents electoral data and identifies winners and losers of the vote, not only by comparing 2019 E.U. results to 2014 E.U. results and 2018 political results, but especially focusing on the territorial dimension of electoral dynamics. Thirdly, it discusses flows of vote in five Italian cities (Brescia, Turin, Florence, Naples, Palermo), in order to give a clearer picture of how citizens (potentially) changed their electoral preferences from 2018 to 2019. Fourthly, it focuses on preferential vote, with the aim of distinguishing between parties characterized by ‘micro-personalization’ and ‘macro-personalization’. On many of these aspects, the 2019 European elections in Italy can be understood on the basis of the well-known ‘second-order election theory’. Yet, there are also interesting empirical findings that deviate from this pattern, among which the electoral success of the League – one of the two parties in government at the moment of the elections – merits further attention and can be mostly explained on the basis of government political action. That same electoral success, in addition, represented one of the causes that led to the end of the so-called yellow-green government in August 2019.     

Electoral salience and the costs of voting at national, sub-national and supra-national elections in the UK: a case study of Brent, UK

This paper considers the impact of distance to polling station upon electoral turnout. Using polling station level data from a London borough, it examines three types of election – parliamentary, European and local elections – over a twenty year period. The UK is notable among western liberal democracies for its relatively large turnout gap – the percentage point difference between turnout at elections for the Westminster parliament compared to that for other institutions, including local councils and the supra-national European parliament. This research considers the hypothesis that in high information, high salience elections for the national parliament the costs of voting associated with travelling to a polling station to vote in person are perceived as either low or insignificant but that in low information, low salience elections, those costs are perceived as higher and may act as a deterrent upon voting. A series of multi-level models consider the relationships between the dependent variable, percentage turnout, and a range of independent variables, including socio-economic characteristics, marginality as well as the spatial context. We show that there is indeed a relationship between distance and voter turnout, and other spatial and contextual variables, which are stronger for the lower salience European and local elections than for the higher salience national elections. Hence we conclude that the local geography of the polling station can have a significant impact on voter turnout and that there should be a more strategic approach to the siting of polling stations.     

Ancient standards of volume: negevite Iron Age pottery (Israel) as a case study in 3D modeling

Hand-made cylindrical vessels unearthed in excavations of Iron Age IIA sites in the Negev Highlands constitute the largest and most dominant ceramic assemblage of simple-shaped vessels found in Israel. The volumes and linear dimensions of these vessels were analyzed based on computer 3D models reconstructed according to their drawn profiles. This analysis revealed the rules that could have been employed by the ancient potters in order to produce vessels of given volumes. These rules demonstrate the human ability to reveal approximate (but inherent) geometric relationships between form and volume and deploy them in everyday life.     

The Construction of the Khufu I Vessel (c.2566 BC): a Re-Evaluation

A re-evaluation of the published reports on the Khufu I vessel suggests: first, Egyptian boatwrights used as much of a plank's original width and length as possible to minimize waste, resulting in unpredictable stealer and scarf placement; second, crafting tenons to be narrower than corresponding mortises may have been one of many standardized techniques of Egyptian boatbuilding; third, temporary and permanent edge-to-edge transverse lashing was an important structural feature. Finally, woven straps instead of ropes were probably used to lash this vessel, and seams were probably sealed with wadding and battens, while the frames appear to have been recycled.
© 2009 The Author     

Using 3D scanning in the investigation of Upper Palaeolithic engravings: first results of a pilot study

This paper deals with the reinvestigation of selected engravings on slate plaquettes from the Late Upper Palaeolithic site of Gönnersdorf, Germany, by applying new 3D scanning methods for the first time. The aim of this method is to obtain further information about stylistic aspects of the depictions as well as to identify an inner chronology and interrelationship of the lines. In addition new options of 3D photography are tested as a further visual support of investigation and documentation. Previously analyses were subjective whereas the new interpretation uses impartial metric methods. In the future the more objective results will allow the comparison of engravings and their details, with the aim of discerning different artists as well as obtaining a better understanding of the art of former hunter- gatherer societies.     

Mobility or migration: a case study from the Neolithic settlement of Nieder-Mörlen (Hessen,Germany)

A combination of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of collagen and radiogenic strontium isotope analysis of tooth enamel was used to investigate diet and mobility at the early Neolithic settlement of Nieder-Mörlen in Germany. The carbon and nitrogen ratios suggest a mixed terrestrial based diet that is consistent with data previously published for early Neolithic sites in Europe. The strontium isotope data indicate a high degree of human mobility with only one individual having an isotope ratio consistent with locally derived strontium. Unusually, a group of non-local juveniles with isotope ratios typical of upland regions is also present at the settlement but there are no adult burials with such values. Whilst transhumance is considered as an explanation, it would not explain why these non-local juveniles lived foreshortened lives and other possible mechanisms are therefore discussed.     

辛亥革命后的八旗驻防城:山东青州满城个案考察(1911-2003)

在清代八旗各驻防点中,山东青州的满城建立时间较晚,但却是距京最近、交通也比较便利的将军级驻防地之一,而且直至上世纪八、九十年代还基本保存完好,所以颇受研究满族史的学者瞩目。本文根据笔者2002年和2003年两次赴青州采访旗人后裔的经历,讨论青州满族通过“农民化“措施导致的边缘化过程,以及他们在这个过程中是否仍然保留着自己的民族意识,又是以何等样的方式将其表达出来的问题。     

Application of GIS methods to retrieve orientation patterns from imagery; a case study from Beds I and II,Olduvai Gorge (Tanzania)

The role of natural processes in the formation of the Bed I and II sites at Olduvai Gorge (Tanzania) remains the subject of much debate, five decades after their original excavation. Preferred orientation of items is indicative of water disturbance, but compass bearings were not available in Mary Leakey's (1971) study. Using GIS methods, we have vectorized maps from 1960s excavations at Olduvai, and applied a range of statistical techniques to calculate items strike. The GIS analysis suggests strongly preferred orientation patterns in Bed I, and more heterogeneous angular histograms in Bed II. Two complementary lines of evidence support these results. Firstly, modelling of potential mapping errors provides a large interval of confidence for preferred orientation patterns. Second, the GIS study was extended to photographs of the earlier excavations and to maps from recent fieldwork at Olduvai; both yielded patterned arrangement of lithics and bones, and are consistent with results based on the analysis of the 1960s maps, i.e. a large number of the Bed I and II assemblages are preferentially oriented. These results highlight the potential of GIS applications to the analysis of imagery in Stone Age studies, and bear important implications for the understanding of the role of natural agents in site formation processes at Olduvai.     

Multi-temporal archaeological analyses of alluvial landscapes using the photogrammetric restitution of historical flights: a case study of Medellin (Badajoz,Spain)

One of the main challenges affecting the archaeological study of alluvial landscapes is the intensity of change these environments experience over time. Quick and dramatic alterations in geomorphological dynamics and land exploitation determine the visibility and conservation of the archaeological record. This study proposes an approach to the problem of studying these evolving environments based on the analysis and treatment of a series aerial photographs taken between the 1950s and the present day. This paper is particularly interested in looking at the process of photogrammetric restitution and in validating and comparing the digital terrain models and orthoimages produced. The quantitative analysis and visual interpretation of these results can provide valuable information about the transformation of landscapes and factors affecting surface evidence. The intended final result is to develop the ability to map the most problematic or best preserved areas. Nevertheless, it is considered in terms of a relative measure of change magnitude, rather than trying to provide absolute figures.