美国基督教锡安主义的发展及影响

美国基督教锡安主义是影响美、以关系和中东局势的一个重要因素。美国基督教主流一自由派主要出于世俗的、人道主义的考虑而支持或反对锡安主义,美国基督教福音一基要派则主要出于“神定时代论”的末世信仰而支持锡安主义和以色列。美国基督教锡安主义是美国长期偏袒以色列的社会文化基础。其宗教极端主义的成分加剧了中东的文明冲突,阻碍了中东的和平进程。     

The Myanmar imbroglio and ASEAN: heading towards the 2010 elections

Following the adoption of a new constitution by national referendum, Myanmar's military junta is set to organize multiparty elections in 2010. Not least to influence Myanmar's leadership, with regard to the conditions Washington believes necessary for credible elections, the United States announced in September 2009 that it would embark on a new approach towards Naypyidaw. This will focus on a high‐level dialogue while keeping existing sanctions in place. The Obama administration has asked the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to support this new approach. Against the backdrop of the deep divide between the ruling generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, and the continued conflict between Naypyidaw and armed ethnic nationalities, this article asks: How strong is ASEAN's record when it comes to influencing the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in relation to matters of national reconciliation and political transition? What factors explain ASEAN's approach towards Myanmar? What prospect, if any, is there that ASEAN states can influence Myanmar's political developments before the 2010 elections? The article argues that ASEAN has not moved beyond a collective criticism which aims to induce Naypyidaw to respond positively to the demands of its international detractors. ASEAN's norms, different political identities and geopolitical interests coupled with the SPDC's prickliness have limited the consensus on Myanmar. Naypyidaw's calculations about relations with Washington, rather than ASEAN's ‘enhanced interactions’ with the military government, and domestic political dynamics are likely to be the crucial determinants of further developments in the context of the 2010 elections.     

Commentary : Partication and representation in the 2002 ATSIC elections

This commentary updates earlier work on participation and representation in ATSIC elections. It adds analysis of the fifth round of ATSIC elections held in 2002 to those held in 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1999. It confirms and refines earlier findings relating to a number of different measures of participation and representation. It argues that overall voter turnout is reasonable given the voluntary nature of ATSIC elections. It discerns a distinctive geography of both voter turnout and candidate interest. It argues that women's participation in ATSIC elections as voters, candidates and in being elected as regional councillors is quite high, but that there is some falling away in women's election to the offices of commissioner and regional council chairperson. It notes some weakness in the representation of women as regional councillors in remote areas and an under-representation of councillors under the age of 35. It also discerns a distinctive geography in the election of Torres Strait Islanders to ATSIC regional councils. In all these instances, the commentary attempts to explain and understand the patterns of participation and representation, while also raising them as possible issues of concern for ATSIC. Explanations relate to ATSIC's program and service provision roles, different social meanings and types of Indigenous identity, the relative influence of European settlement norms on traditional patterns of Indigenous political behaviour, and the nature of public career life courses. The commentary suggests that the distinctive geographies and other patterns of participation and representation are both understandable and well entrenched, and are unlikely to change greatly in the future.     

Perspectives on democratic consolidation in Southern Africa: The five general elections of 2004

Huntingdon's ‘third wave’ of democracy came late to Africa, but five countries held general elections in 2004, providing an opportunity to reflect on degrees of democratic consolidation in the region. African political dynamics are considered in relation to the political and economic environment together with national, ethnic and regional identities and the way in which these may influence democratic consolidation. The electoral systems of the five countries are considered in relation to the dominant party effect. The course and outcomes of the five elections are examined in relation to indicators of participation and competition suggested by Lindberg. The latter's indicators of legitimacy are considered in relation to more detailed analysis of each election in its national context, paying attention to the influence of ethnic, regional and other divisions on outcomes, which are mapped. Major procedural flaws prevented democratic consolidation in Mozambique and hindered it in Malawi, where the party system also proved unstable. South Africa, Namibia and Botswana satisfied most of the criteria apart from turnover and provide convincing evidence of the institutionalisation and acceptance of democracy, albeit qualified by the continuing dominance of their governing parties. In all five countries the equation of democracy with socio-economic benefits threatens disillusionment in the face of poverty and inequality.     

Islam and politics in Turkey: the 2007 presidential elections and beyond

The changing role of Islam in the public life of Turkey is about to come under renewed scrutiny, the key issue being the potential candidates for the May 2007 presidential election. Erdoǧan, the Prime Minister and head of the first Islamist majority government in the republic's history, is likely to stand. Arguments already abound as to the legitimacy of such a move, with the opposition declaring that they will boycott the election if Erdoǧan becomes a candidate. Equally, Erdoǧan's own supporters are, in public, at least occasionally uncertain, conscious that when the late Özal moved to become president, his party suffered. Secularists grimly wonder whether they will be able to survive such an overt transfer to an Islamist figure, one whom they fear would be a great contrast to the pro‐Republican present incumbent, President Sezer. Yet, how should we face such a transition? What implications does it have for Turkey's politics, both internally in terms of the social life of the country, and in external affairs?     

当代美国郊区的蔓延对生态环境的危害

二战以后,美国郊区化进程迅猛异常,低密度蔓延性成为美国郊区的一个主要特点。郊区的这种低密度蔓延对美国生态环境造成了极大的危害。首先,汽车成为美国郊区居民的主要交通方式,而汽车所排放的尾气,则成为美国空气污染的主要污染源之一;其次,郊区的化粪池和非点状污染源导致了郊区地下水和地表水的污染;再次,郊区侵占了大量的旷野和野生动物的栖息地,从而减少了人们野外活动的空间,同时导致了野生生物的减少乃至灭绝;最后,郊区蔓延还导致了硬化面积的增加、沼泽等天然分洪地区的减少和水土流失的加重,从而导致了美国洪涝灾害的加剧。     

The direct election of mayors: an assessment of the institutional reform following the Italian municipal elections of 2001

On 13 May 2001, the same day as the general elections, municipal elections were held in more than 1,000 municipalities, including all the major Italian cities (Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin). Incumbents already re-elected once could not stand because of the two-term limit. This in many cases opened the way for a renewal of mayoralties. This article aims to provide a balanced assessment of the process of direct mayoral elections by using data relating to electoral behaviour, stability and mayoral recruitment inside the 103 Italian provincial capitals (the capoluoghi ) to complement an analysis of the reform of 1993. On the basis of the theoretical analysis and the empirical evidence provided, it is argued that the direct election of mayors, and more generally the neo-parliamentary system of government, represents an example of a successful institutional reform.     

The year of the insurgents: the 2008 US presidential campaign

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush's unpopularity at home and abroad and the looming threat of recession would have made a gripping drama of the 2008 presidential election campaign even without the ground‐breaking emergence of the first credible black and female candidates for the White House. But the defeat of the Democratic establishment's front‐runner, Hillary Clinton, by a little‐known freshman Senator of mixed ancestry suggested that this was to be the year of the insurgent, just as the Republicans rallied to the least loyal and most contentious of their candidates, the maverick Senator John McCain. The extraordinarily attractive and articulate Senator Barack Obama re‐wrote the rule book on winning primaries and caucuses with the help of Silicon Valley and an unprecedented turnout among black and young voters, before veering sharply to the centre once the nomination was secured. Orthodoxy returned at the conventions, with Obama picking a safe centrist as running mate and McCain choosing a Christian conservative, although generating great excitement by nominating a woman and undermining the usual democrat advantage among female voters. And for all the talk of a ‘new politics’, the year of the insurgents came down at the end, as US elections usually do, to a handful of swing states and the money and organization to win them.     

Growing up Kennedy: the role of medical ailments in the life of JFK, 1920-1957

As a result of the opening of new materials at the John F Kennedy Library relating to John F Kennedy's medical problems, we have a better understanding of the specific nature of those ailments, how they were treated, and how he responded to them. Most important, this study focuses on how his medical problems affected his relationship with his parents, especially his father, in the context of an older sibling who personified what a Kennedy should be: bright, athletic, and healthy. John Kennedy's response to family expectations produced a sometimes rebellious and detached youth who learned to rely on his charm, wit, intellect, and inner toughness to overcome adversity. In the process of dealing with serious medical issues into adulthood, John Kennedy revealed both courage and fortitude-traits that would eventually carry him to the White House.     

The 100 billion dollar brain: central intelligence machinery in the UK and the US

The ‘Five Eyes’ alliance, led by the United States, spends close to 100 billion dollars a year on intelligence. This review article argues that western countries are distinguished by their sophisticated approach to the making of intelligence‐led national security policy. Political leaders and policy‐makers who access this sensitive material are often involved in elaborate systems that constitute part of the core executive and which seek to task and improve the intelligence leviathan. Western intelligence therefore has a ‘central brain’ that devotes considerable energy to both analysis and management. By contrast, in the majority of other states around the world, the orientation of intelligence has often been inward facing, with a high priority given to regime security. Some would suggest that intelligence has been an important component of western power projection, while others would argue that this process has been over‐expensive and has under‐delivered, not least in the last decade. Either way, the debates about development of the central intelligence machinery that supports western security policies are of the first importance and fortunately this discussion has been advanced by the appearance of several valuable new studies: these are discussed in this review article.