THE MARKET VALUE OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS IN ALTERNATIVE FISCAL REGIMES*

ABSTRACT Land price differentials have long been used as a proxy for the value of environmental improvements in cost/benefit analysis. Both the empirical and theoretical literatures have largely ignored two important facts, however: Taxes financing local improvements are often distortionary, and amenities which influence property values in turn impact the fiscal budget, and hence the tax rate and final economic burden. Put another way, the economic cost of an improvement is endogenous to both the amenity level and the revenue structure. Extending the story in this direction for a system of open or closed spatial cities, the paper finds land rent measures to be a biased measure of the willingness to pay for amenities financed by either head taxes (benefit taxes), property taxes (excise taxes), or highway tolls (user fees). These results are used to correct the conventional specification of empirical property value regression models, which traditionally account for neither tax revenue effects nor the excess burden of distortionary taxation.     

THE EFFECTS OF TAXES,EXPENDITURES, AND PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. Data for 28 metropolitan areas over a 15-year period are used to determine the impacts of government spending, taxes, and public infrastructure on total employment and disaggregated employment. After carefully controlling for the government budget constraint we find that taxes are negatively related to total employment and education spending is positively related to total employment. Nevertheless, we find that it is difficult for metropolitan areas to influence the composition of their employment with government tax and expenditure policies. Moreover, at current levels of public infrastructure, marginal changes in infrastructure have no strong effect on employment.     

THE IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON REGIONAL CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT

This paper examines the effects of international remittances on regional economic development using spatial data from an original household survey carried out in the Republic of Moldova. I analyze remittance flows with a model that estimates regional (urban and rural) budget shares of consumption and investment expenditure categories for rural and urban households. An important contribution of the paper is that it analyzes the effect of remittances in the regions where spending takes place, which is not necessarily the same as the region where the households originating this spending reside. Using the multinomial logit approach, I control for potential selectivity and endogeneity biases of remittances. The results show that remittances lead to significantly increasing marginal productive investments in urban regions at the expense of rural regions. The fundamental finding of the study is that remittances influence the flight of productive capital out of rural areas into urban regions (a pattern similar to the crowding‐out effect of the Dutch Disease). The analysis carried out in this paper can be applied to other temporary income transfers and exogenous spending injected in the region that affect households' regional expenditure patterns.     

STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

新中国60年国家财政收支变化

60年来我国财政收入与财政支出基本上步调一致,规模由少到多不断壮大,呈现直线上升的发展趋势。财政的实力不仅越来越强,支出规模不断扩大,而且收入结构、支出结构和收支结构不断优化,反映了各个不同历史时期财政的特点,体现了财政转型的发展轨迹。财政支出制度不断改革完善,促进了公共财政体系的建立和预算公正、公开、细化、透明,以及经济分析与决策的科学化。     

A NOTE ON THE POLITICAL EXPENDITURE CYCLE IN LATIN AMERICA*

In an earlier paper I established that Latin American executives both civilian and military, manipulate aggregate public expenditures so as to maximize their chances of retaining office. This paper carries the analysis further by elaborating five probable strategies, each consequent to the socio-political conditions executives face, and links strategies to tradeoffs in various programs' shares of the budget at crucial periods. The results suggest that in fact executives do respond to their survival problems by manipulating expenditure shares.     

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, AMENITIES AND FISCAL FACTORS ON AGE-SPECIFIC MIGRATION RATES

ABSTRACT. Migration models have considered several different categories of determinants, including economic opportunities, amenities, and state and local fiscal factors. Migration has also been shown to depend on the individual's position in the life cycle. This paper represents a first attempt to integrate all three categories of determinants of migration into a life-cycle framework. Empirical findings generated from a countrywide model of white male migration, over the period 1970 to 1980, reveal that all three types of determinants are important. Specifically, economic opportunities are most influential for males during their working years. Amenities are also found to follow a life-cycle pattern with older migrants more attracted to amenable locations than their younger cohorts. Finally, state income and death taxes display life-cycle effects; working males in their peak earning years are detracted by high income taxes while all migrants aged 55 to 69 avoid counties in states with high inheritance and estate taxes.     

“Windows of Opportunity,” Revenue Volatility,and Policy Punctuations: Testing a Model of Policy Change in the American States

The growing evidence of policy change patterns characterized as punctuated equilibrium has increasingly directed the attention of policy scholars to the question of what factors cause them. The present study attempts to address this emerging question by developing a comprehensive, multifactorial model and testing it with state budget data. Specifically, based on theories of information processing and agenda setting, it develops a conceptual framework that models punctuated policy change as a function of two main factors: institutional friction (consisting of institutional constraints, legislative streamlining mechanisms, information‐processing capacity, and bureaucratization) and policy windows (consisting of revenue volatility, change in party control, and budget cycle). In doing so, the study pays special attention to cyclical revenue fluctuations whose effect has never been subject to empirical test. Regression analyses reveal that policy window factors including revenue volatility, changes in party control of the governorship and the House, and a budget cycle play an important role in creating policy punctuations.     

GOVERNMENT AND THE CANADIAN URBAN SYSTEM: INCOME TAX,TRANSFER PAYMENTS,AND EMPLOYMENT

The impact of government on the Canadian urban system is explored using Revenue Canada data from personal income tax returns. Variations in taxes and in certain forms of government expenditure among urban places are linked with city size, economic base, per capita income, and rate of growth. It is found that many locations are heavily dependent on the public sector and that, overall, government programmes redistribute income toward smaller and less prosperous places. The most significant effect, however, is the stabilization of local economies by means of a large and relatively constant public sector. L'impact du gouvernement sur le système urbain canadien est étudié en utilisant des données de Revenu Canada qui proviennent des déclarations d'impǒt sur le revenu des particuliers. Les variations de taxes et de certains types de dépenses publiques parmi les régions urbaines sont associés avec les variables de taille urbaine, base économique, revenu per capita, et taux de croissance. Il est démontré que plusieurs régions sont fortement dépendantes du secteur public et que, globalement, les programmes gouvernementaux redistribuent le revenue vers les régions les plus petites et les moins prospères. Mais l'effet le plus significatif est celui de la stabilisation des économies locales par le biais d'un large et relativement constant secteur public.     

IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING ON INDIA'S PUBLIC FINANCE

This paper integrates the methodology of the National Transfer Accounts and Budget Forecasting Model to compute and forecast the impact of population ageing on India's public finance from 2005 through 2050, based on the fiscal structure in 2004–2005. The empirical results are new and have useful policy implications. The forecasted increase in the share of total public expenditure on elderly individuals is largely accounted for by expenditure on civilian pensions and other cash transfers, government services, and poverty and other social protection. Elderly individuals are found to be not very expensive in terms of public health expenditure. Tax revenues increase and result in a decline of debt-to-GDP ratio because population ageing does not lower tax buoyancy in the long run. Overall, the increasing total budget surplus and fiscal support ratio implies that the long-term impact of population ageing may be fiscally sustainable.     

Limits to Radical Intervention: Agricultural Taxation in West Bengal

Agricultural taxation policy formulation under the Left Front government in West Bengal indicates landed interests are now powerful enough to resist enhanced taxation. As the most radical government in India abandoned proposed agricultural tax increases in the face of landowner opposition, and felt obliged to lower land taxes instead, India is not likely to increase land revenue for economic development. This effective landowner veto power over taxation policy indicates significant agrarian reform is not forthcoming in India, and the trend is towards greater subsidies for surplus-producing farmers. The research was conducted through interviews with the policy formulators in West Bengal.     

THE SOVIET METROPOLITAN HIERARCHY: REGIONALIZATION AND COMPARISON WITH THE UNITED STATES

The rapid growth of Soviet cities is converging toward a hierarchy similar to that of the United States. The numbers of aggregate populations of metropolitan centers by five size categories in the two countries are compared for growth and change from 1939 to 1976. Also, nine Soviet urban regions are identified, mapped, and correlated with comparable American groupings. Growth rates of Soviet metropolises are normalizing with less recent variation as compared to the 1939–59 period, a trend that parallels the one in the United States. Also, it appears that certain functions, such as administration and transportation, are stabilizing factors in urban growth. Governmental policies of investment in underdeveloped regions, balanced growth and diversification may be partially thwarted by five-year planning goals that have stimulated supragrowth in large cities of the South and East. However, it seems likely that increasing mobility, amenities and the expansion of consumer goods and services will produce a reversal of trends toward higher growth rates in the metropolitan centers of the West. Projections to the year 2000 suggest that Soviet metropolises will have a larger share of the national population and a more uniform growth pattern than those in the United States.     

Russian Revenues from Oil and Gas Exports: Flow and Taxation

A senior Japanese economist traces the flows of revenue derived from oil and gas exports through the Russian economy. The author examines the use of revenues and investigates their contribution to Russia's state and regional budgets in the form of taxes. After detailing the methodological difficulties encountered in measuring revenue streams statistically, he proceeds to approximate their magnitude through intensive use of input-output table data and budget statistics provided by the Russian Federation Ministry of Finance. His investigation of the list of destination countries for Russian oil and petroleum products exports has interesting implications for the study of capital flight from Russia to the West. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, H20, Q43. 10 tables, 37 references.     

Punctuated Equilibria and Budgets in the American States

In this article, we examine long-term state budget trends to find evidence of punctuated equilibrium. We use the American states as a broad set of institutional variation with which to examine the nature of policy change through the lens of incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium theories of policymaking. The strength of this article is its sensitivity of variations in policy outcomes across time (18 years), across space (50 state institutions), and across issue space (10 budget categories). This research advances the characterization of policy outcomes by employing a quantitative measure that is both less sensitive to outliers and one that characterizes budget distributions on a simple numeric scale. Our general findings are: (i) state budget categories are interdependent; (ii) state budgets are generally punctuated; but (iii) to varying degrees: Thus, considerable stability (indicated by tall peaks) and punctuations (represented by fat tails) are a central feature of policy outcomes in the American states. This result confirms the logic of punctuated equilibrium theory, but raises future questions about the impact specific variations in institutional costs have on policymaking across the 50 states.     

Financing Decentralized Development in a Low‐Income Country: Raising Revenue for Local Government in Uganda

Uganda has been engaged for a number of years in an ambitious programme of political and financial decentralization involving significantly expanded expenditure and service delivery responsibilities for local governments in what are now forty‐five districts. Fiscal decentralization has involved allocation of block grants from the centre to complement increased local tax revenue‐raising efforts by districts and municipalities. This article is concerned with the financial side of decentralization and in particular with an examination of district government efforts to raise revenue with the tax instruments which have been assigned to them. These are found to be deficient in a number of ways and their tax raising potential not to be commensurate with the responsibilities being devolved. Achievement of the decentralization aims laid down, therefore, must depend either on the identification of new or modified methods of raising revenue locally, or increased commitment to transfer of financial resources from the centre, or both.     

Trends in real wages in Denmark since the Late Middle Ages

This article constructs long-span time series indices on wages in Denmark and explores the growth in living standards in the pre-industrial era. There were several persistent upward and downward trends in real annual earnings from 1500 to 1820, but no clear upward long-term trend. This finding seems hard to reconcile with Maddison's figure for the average annual growth in real GDP per capita in Denmark (0.17%) over the same period. This is the case, even if the growth rate in pre-industrial annual earnings is underestimated by 0.05%–0.06% per annum due to an increased number of working days.     

THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL TAXES AND PUBLIC SERVICES ON RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS*

ABSTRACT. This paper incorporates an exogenous taxing and service-providing public sector into a dynamic residential land-use model in order to examine how local-government fiscal policies alter the pace and pattern of residential development. The model is used to derive the comparative-dynamic responses to variations in the income, sales, and property taxes and public-service time paths. The results show how tax and expenditure effects systematically depend upon the anticipated relative growth rates in rents to alternative uses and vary across locations within a given urban area as well as across urban areas themselves.     

PREDICTION OF TRANSPORT-ECONOMIC LINKAGES IN THE USSR

Possible changes in production patterns of basic Soviet industries and the resulting interregional linkages and freight flows are projected over the next 25 to 30 years. Interregional energy flows are expected to be limited largely to oil and gas as well as power transmission at extra high voltages. Steam-coal movements will be restricted to the limits of particular economic regions, and coking-coal movements will be reduced as a result of technological changes in the iron and steel industry (electric steels, direct conversion, peat-based metallurgy). In general, the share of semifinished and finished goods is expected to increase and that of raw materials and fuels to decline in interregional hauls. The likely new flow patterns are examined for the Soviet Union's principal transport corridors.     

谈第二轮县（市）志财政·税务篇篇目设置

部分第二轮县（市）志书存在篇目设置不完整,缺少财政税收体制改革、预算外收支、财政收支平衡、资产管理等要项,还存在篇目设置归属不得当、标题名称不规范等问题。第二轮县（市）志书财政·税务篇篇目设置应从财政、税务行政管理的职能入手,以事以类聚,类为一志的编纂原则作为宏观谋篇的基本思路,以财政税收体制改革、财政收支、财政管理、税收及税收管理为主体内容。同时,第二轮县（市）志书设置财政‘税务篇篇目,必须注意先明体制、坚持横排门类、记述资料完整和遵照《国民经济行业分类标准》分类等问题。     

FIRM SIZES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: ESTIMATING LONG‐TERM EFFECTS ON U.S. COUNTY GROWTH, 1990–2000

This paper investigates the role of the business size distribution on income and employment growth in U.S. counties from 1990 to 2000. We measure the business size distribution as the share of employees across nine establishment size categories that range from microfirms (one to four employees) to large firms (1,000+ employees) and using three indices similar to a Gini coefficient. Results show that the business size distribution has a significant impact on county‐level growth patterns. Employment shares in small firms increase employment growth, but decrease income growth. One possible conclusion suggests policies emphasizing small firms and entrepreneurship during times of high unemployment.