METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE USE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

The increasing demand on water in the Soviet Union and the problem of assuring water quality require the construction of long-term water-management balances by drainage basins. These balances, based on predicted demand and water availability, would suggest the need for water-management projects within basins and interbasin transfers. Water needs would be evaluated both in terms of water requirements by categories of users and in terms of water quality. The most crucial regional problems involve the increasing shortage of water in Central Asia (with the prospect of interbasin transfer from Siberia) and in southern regions of the European USSR (with the problem of diverting water southward from the northern runoff slope). The Caspian Sea is expected to require a supplementary inflow of 80 to 100 cubic kilometers a year by the end of the century if the decline of its waterlevel is to be arrested. But southward diversion of northern waters is not expected to add more than 50 to 70 km³ at best, with a possible saving of an additional 10 to 20 km³ through decline of evaporation from a reduced Caspian Sea surface. The preservation of conditions in the Sea of Azov, the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash pose additional water problems. [The senior author died in October, 1974].     

CONCEPTS OF THE INNER CITY AND RECENT TRENDS IN CANADA

This essay evaluates the explanatory power of two current models - ‘centrifugal’ and ‘centripetal’ - of the evolution of inner cities. This in done in the light of data on socioeconomic trends that affect residential areas in the cores of the nine major Canadian metropolitan regions. The centrifugal model focuses on the attraction of suburbs on central city residents; the centripetal concentrates on the lure of some inner-city neighbourhoods for certain middle- and upper-income households. While the Canadian trends support some propositions of the models, they seriously challenge others, us models seem unsuitable for explaining Canadian urban reality. They fail to account for the relative socioeconomic stability of core neighourboods in major Canadian cities and the dissociation between trends in their residents' incomes and in housing values. Cet article évalue le pouvoir d'explication démontré par les ébauches théoriques qui visent à faire comprendre l'évolution des quartiers situés à l'interieur des centres urbains. Cette évaluation se sert de données relatives aux tendances socio-économiques qui marquent les secteurs résidentiels situés au coeur des neuf plus grandes zones métropolitaines du Canada. Deux modèles dominent ce champ d'étude: il y a d'abord le modèle ‘centrifuge,’ qui postule une attraction des banlieues exercée sur les résidents de la ville centrale; puis le modèle ‘centripète,’ qui explique l'attrait qu'exercent ces quartiers sur certains manages a moyens et hauls revenus. Alors que les tendances observées dans les agglomérations canadiennes viennent donner du poids à certaines propositions de ces modèles, elles présentent également un défi de taille à certaines autres. Les difficultés ressenties dans l'application de ces deux modèles paraissent relever de l'inadaptation de modèles conçus aux Etats-Unis à la réalité urbaine canadienne. Ces modèles sont considérés particulièrement inaptes à expliquer la relative stabilité socio-économique des quartiers des grandes agglomérations canadiennes et à rendre compte d'un écart grandissant entre lesrevenus de leurs résidents et la valeur des unités de logement qui s'y trouvent.     

GROWTH AND FLUCTUATIONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE OECD, 1964–1984

Time series for industrial production covering the period 1964 to 1984 for 16 countries of the oecd are analyzed in order to measure the trends in production and to study the diffusion patterns of cyclical fluctuations within the system. The dramatic growth at the beginning of the period is unequally distributed, favouring industrializing countries, such as Greece and Spain, as well as Japan, which joins the ranks of oecd leading nations during this period. Along with Germany, Japan becomes a key indicator of the system as a whole, its short term performance being highly correlated with most countries of the oecd, whereas that of the U.S.A. becomes quasi-isolated .
On a analysé les séries chronologiques de la production industrielle pour la péride 1964 à 1984 pour seize pays de l'ocde afin d'évaluer les tendances, et étudier la structure des variations cycliques au sein du système. La croissance vertigineuse au début de période s'avère inégalement distribuée, favorisant les pays en voie d'in-dustrialisation tels que la Grèce et l'Espagne ainsi que le Japon qui rejoint alors le rang des pays les plus impor-tants. C'est d'ailleurs le Japon qui constitue avec l'Alle-magne l'indicateur clé pour tous les pays de l'ocde, sa performance à court terme reflétant sensiblement la situation de l'ocde dans son ensemble, alors que celle des Etats-Unis apparat isolée .     

GEOGRAPHICAL CYCLES IN THE CIRCULATION OF MATTER

Natural scientists have long studied the circulation of matter within nature, and geographers have long investigated the exchange of matter between nature and man in the process of economic production. The time is now at hand to develop an overall theory of geographic cycles that would encompass the circulation of matter both within the natural environment and in the process of human activities. The author suggests an array of geographic cycles that appear to operate in the man-environment system, and shows how the identification and study of such cycles might provide a new focus for the organization of geography as a science, for geographic research and for its practical application.     

TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE OF TOURIST SERVICES IN THE USSR AND TRENDS IN ITS DEVELOPMENT

Differences in the support structure for tourism in various parts of the USSR are analyzed as a consequence of such factors as natural conditions, proximity to major population centers and tourist attractions, route connectivity, and the variable shares of private (e.g., dacha) and rental accommodations. Elements of both dynamism and stability in the current spatial pattern are identified and comparisons of tourism infrastructure for 1976, 1980, and 1986 are used to analyze changes occurring in subregions within four broad macrozones. Tourism infrastructure and interregional tourist travel both are concentrated in the central and southern parts of the European USSR. Translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK from: Izvestiya Vsesoyuznogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva, 1990, No. 1, pp. 86-94.     

THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

SOME IMPLICATIONS OF RECENT TRENDS IN THE PROVINCIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT IN CANADA

The redistribution between 1961 and 1977 of shares in gross domestic product compels a reappraisal of traditional explanations for Canadian economic patterns. The main features of economic growth over this period confirm the explanatory value of the export base model of the development process. Traditional characterizations of core-periphery relationships are compromised by weakening interprovincial complementarities and the articulation of residentiary industries in western Canada. Compromised as well is the notion that there is in Canada a wide disparity in regional per capita income, a disparity that has persisted with little change for many years.
La redistribution des portions provinciales du produit intérieur brut entre 1961 et 1977 se demande qu'on examine de nouveau les explications traditionnelles pour les transformations de l'économie spatiale. Au cours des seize années derniéres les caractéristiques principales du croissance économique rafferment l'utilité explicative du modéle « export-base >>. Les caractérisations traditionnelles du type centre-périphérie sont compromises par l'affaiblissement des rapports complémentaires parrni les provinces et par l'articulation des structures provinciales économiques en Canada ouest. Compromise aussi est la notion qu'il existe au Canada de grandes disparités a l'échelle régionale dans le revenu par habitant, disparités qui ont persisté avec peu de variations depuis de nombreuses années.     

INTERACTION BETWEEN THE COAL-ENERGY-CHEMICALS AND IRON-STEEL CYCLES IN THE DONETS BASIN

An economic-geographic model of two technologically related industry groups in the Donets Basin (coal-energy-chemicals and iron-steel) reveals bottlenecks that reduce the cost-effectiveness of industrial performance. They include cross hauls of coal, amounting to about 5 million tons a year within the Donets Basin; in-shipments of up to 3 million tons of coal from outside the Donbas, and the waste of 3 billion m³ of blast-furnace gas. Remedies that would insure more rational utilization of fuel and energy resources are proposed.     

THE RENEWED VIABILITY OF GRAIN CORN PRODUCTION IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO, 1961–1971, AND CHANGES IN HARVESTING AND STORAGE METHODS

The decade 1961–1971 was one of remarkable expansion in grain corn production across southern Ontario, most notably reflected by the increase in the average scale of production. The complex of factors related to the renewed viability of the crop is discussed, with particular attention to developments in harvesting and storage methods. This serves to illustrate the process by which new developments in harvesting and storage methods were adopted and relates technological change to the economics of grain corn production and adaptive decision-making.
De 1961 à 1971, l'ensemble du Sud de l'Ontario a connu une expansion remarquable de la production de grains de maïs, une expansion surtout reflétée par une augmentation notable du niveau moyen de production. Dans notre article, nous discutons les facteurs complexes reliés à ce renouveau de la viabilité du maïs. Nous nous concentrons sur le développement des méthodes de récolte et d'entreposage. Notre perspective nous permet d'illustrer le processus d'adoption des nouvelles méthodes de récolte et d'entreposage, et de lier le changement technologique à l'économie de la production de grains de maüs et aux prises de décisions conséquentes.     

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE IN THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ELDERLY POPULATION IN ONTARIO, 1976–1986

Although the elderly population is increasing rapidly in all parts of Canada, the pattern of change is far from uniform. A number of properties of the aging process are strongly differentiated at the county and township levels, variations which have considerable significance for the design and implementation of social service and health care systems. Using data from the 1976, 1981, and 1986 Censuses for Ontario, components of change in the elderly population are obtained by cohort survival methods. The significance of rapid metropolitan growth of the elderly compared with the slow growth of the rural elderly is highlighted, while intra-county distributional shifts in the elderly population raise important questions for the next decade.
Quoique l'âge de la population augmente rapidement à travers le Canada, ce changement nes'opèrepas de façon uniforme. Certaines caractéristiques du processus de vieillissement sont vraiment differentes à l'échelle des comtés et des municipalités. Ces différences sont d'une grande importance lors de la création etde l'implantation des services-santé et des services sociaux. À l'aide des statistiques de recensement pour les années 1976, 1981, et 1986 pour l'Ontario, les facteurs de changement des populations de personnes âgées sont obtenus au moyen des paramètres de 'survie des groupes.' La signification du taux d'accroissement rapide des personnes â gés en milieu urbain comparé au taux d'accroissement plus lent de ces mêmes personnes en milieu rural est mise en évidence. Les variations de la distribution de cette population d'un comtéà I'autre soulèvent d'importantes interrogations pour la prochaine décade .     

THE ISOTOPIC COMPOSITION OF TIN IN SOME ANCIENT METALS AND THE RECYCLING PROBLEM IN METAL PROVENANCING

A recent suggestion that some ancient metallurgical processes might give rise to large changes (> 0.5%) in the isotopic composition of tin gave hope that it might be possible to identify ancient bronze samples which had undergone recycling and mixing processes. This paper describes a method for the analysis of the isotopic composition of tin by thermal ionization mass spectrometry and applies it to analyse a number of ancient bronzes and tin metal objects from the Bronze Age Mediterranean. No observable isotopic fractionation of tin was found above $0.1% in the ratio¹²² Sn/¹¹⁶. Consequently, either recycling of bronze in the Late Bronze Age Mediterranean was not so common as supposed, or the isotopic composition of tin is not fractionated by anthropogenic metallurgical processes to the extent predicted by the Bradford group.