A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES APPROACHES TO MODELING INTERSECTORAL AND INTERCOUNTY EMPLOYMET LINKAGES IN RURAL REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT. The performance of five criteria for identifying significant interregional labor market linkages is compared. The criteria suggest differential model specifications based on the implicit tradeoff between parsimony and specification bias. Models were specified using: Akaike's final prediction error; Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion; an input-output model; Aoki's time series algorithm; and a combined input-outputi/time series approach. Models of the changes in monthly employment for twelve industries in six regions in northeastern Utah were specified using each criterion. Models based on Schwarz's criterion and the input-output criterion were preferred to those based on other criteria.     

湖南省区域趋同分析

根据区域趋同基本理论,采用新古典方法分析了湖南省区域趋同状况.结果表明,自我国实施社会主义市场经济体制以来,湖南省区域经济增长总体表现为条件趋同,趋同速度约为每年1.93%.受地理区位的影响,湖南省内部区域差异较大,国家发展政策对湖南省区域趋同的影响相当显著,例如,湘西自治州纳入西部大开发增强了湖南省区域增长的收敛性.而产业结构和投资状况对于区域经济增长的作用不强.在此基础上,提出几点促进湖南省区域趋同的对策.     

THE SENSITIVITY OF INPUT-OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS*

The present paper derives analytical expressions for the sensitivity of input-output multipliers to errors in the data. The effects on the simple output multipliers are investigated for additive errors, multiplicative errors in the columns, multiplicative errors in the rows, error rectangles, the error couple and the single error, and price changes. In contrast to earlier investigations, the results are not obtained from the Leontief inverse. The present approach focusses on the effects of errors on the eigenvector corresponding to the dominant eigenvalue. It is indicated how similar expressions may be derived for several other multipliers.     

COMPARATIVE REGIONAL POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS: EX POST EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of ex post impact analysis of regional policies in the European Community. The analysis is both methodological and applied in nature. After a concise overview of existing impact assessment methods, a two-step approach by means of an exploratory frequency method and an explanatory rational expectations-based model is proposed in order to provide an empirical framework for cross-regional comparative evaluation of the performance of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The seope and applicability of the method is illustrated by means of a case study for Dutch regions.     

ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN MATERIAL WELFARE OF THE POPULATION: THE GEORGIAN SSR

Spatial differences in the material welfare of the population of the Georgian SSR are evaluated on the basis of five per capita indices (monetary income, total savings, number of motor vehicles, retail trade turnover, and provision of basic services) for 61 administrative units of varying type, including ASSRs, rayons, and cities under union republic jurisdiction. Rankings on individual indices are then aggregated into a summary rating. Major cities and areas of commercial agriculture (tea, citrus) tended to have higher summary ratings than mountainous areas with difficult topography and climate and remote from major markets (translated by Jay Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

THE ROLE OF ERROR STRUCTURE IN SIMULATIONS ON REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS*

Previous simulation experiments on regional input-output analysis have concluded that regional purchase coefficients are more important than technical coefficients in contributing to multiplier accuracy. This paper shows that the multiplicative error structure used in those experiments may have biased the results. A new error structure, combining a multiplicative and an additive component is introduced, and simulations are conducted on randomly generated models. The analysis shows that the results are sensitive to the relative magnitudes of the two error components, as well as to the closure of the model.     

A BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF A REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVE: STATE LOANS*

The luster of economic growth, the existence of depressed regions, and the fear of competition from giveaway programs in other states have all resulted in state governments adopting a rash of programs designed to encourage a strong manufacturing base for their economy. Many economists feel uneasy about the rapid spread of such industrial incentive programs as tax breaks, government loans, and industrial revenue bonds.¹ The literature of public finance, development, and regional economics contains many interesting studies examining the wisdom of these undertakings. This paper hopes to contribute by developing a method of benefit-cost analysis for appraisal of industrial incentive programs. Even though the model is constructed for and applied to the analysis of state government industrial development loans, the principles formulated should be easily adaptable to the assessment of other types of regional development programs. A secondary objective of the paper is to discuss the first empirical application of a model which accounts for possible differences between the social opportunity cost of foregone investment and that of foregone consumption.²