加拿大人回发展与人回迁移

本文简析加拿大人口发展与人口迁移过程,以及人口迁移对加拿大人口增长、种族、语言构成、人口分布及未来人口增长的影响。     

RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

人口自身再生产与生态环境的拓扑探析

本文运用耗散结构和自组织理论,从物质循环和能量转化方面,剖析了生态环境与生态系统的拓扑关系,进而从理论深层探讨了人口自身再生产与生态环境之间的相互机制与演绎规律。文章认为再建生态平衡和人与自然和谐的基础在于有效地控制人口增长和寻求合宜的经济发展模式,并通过技术进步改善和保护生态环境。     

俄罗斯西伯利亚人口状况及其地理分析

西伯利亚人口问题一直非常尖锐,20世纪90年代以来更有不断恶化趋势。基于1989年和2002年俄罗斯人口普查资料,对西伯利亚人口状况及其动态变化进行了分析,得出了一些重要结论:1989-2002年间西伯利亚人口减少了95.9万,减少幅度达3.7%,远高于全俄1.5%的平均减幅;出生率降低、死亡率提高和人口大量迁移导致多数城市和区域人口持续减少,劳动力短缺问题日趋严重,制约了地区经济的发展;实现人口自然增长、调节人口迁移、引进合法移民乃西伯利亚人口和经济社会发展的当务之急。     

陕北地区城市化驱动力研究

随着陕北地区能源资源的大规模开发与利用,陕北地区城市化战略取得了一定成绩,城市化水平大幅提高。本文基于对于城市化驱动力理论与实例的分析与总结,首先指出了陕北地区城市化发展中的问题,指出城镇化发展速度快,中心城镇辐射带动作用小,城镇密度小,城市基础设施滞后、生态环境退化等问题;其次提出了陕北地区城市化的驱动力主要分为动力机制与约束力机制两个方面。动力机制有经济发展、城乡人口迁移、产业结构调整、产业带动、大型项目建设、基础设施建设等;约束力主要表现在制度约束、生态环境约束及水资源约束等三方面。     

INTENTION AND IRONY: THE MISSED ENCOUNTER BETWEEN HAYDEN WHITE AND QUENTIN SKINNER

No contemporary intellectual historian has produced more influential reflections on the historian's craft than Hayden White and Quentin Skinner, yet their legacy has never been meaningfully compared. Doing so reveals a surprising complementarity in their approach, at least to the extent that Skinner's stress on recovering the intentionality of authors fits well with White's observation that irony is the dominant rhetorical mode of historical narrative in our day. Irony itself, to be sure, has to be divided broadly speaking into its dramatic or Socratic variants and the unstable and paradoxical alternative defended by poststructuralist critics. The latter produced in White an anxiety about the anarchistic implications of an allegedly inherent undecidability in historical interpretation and narration, which threatened to conflate history entirely with fiction. By recovering the necessary role of intentionality as a prerequisite for a more moderate version of Socratic and dramatic irony—in which hindsight provides some purchase on a truth denied actors at the time history is made—it is possible to rescue an ironic attitude that can register the frequency of unintended consequences without surrendering to the conclusion that no explanation or interpretation is superior to another. Against yet a third alternative, which tries to reconstruct the past rationally as a prelude to the present, acknowledging the ironic undermining of intentions avoids giving all the power to the contemporary historian and restores a dialogic balance between actors in the past and their present‐day interpreters.     

新时期的新疆人口问题及其调控对策

西部大开发战略给新疆发展带来了难得的历史机遇,人口作为PRED的重要组成部分,对新疆的开发和实施可持续发展具有十分重要的作用。本文详细分析了新疆人口的空间分布特点及其时间变化态势,并运用系统动力学模型对未来人口的变化趋势和绿洲人口合理容量进行了模拟仿真,提出了人口增长的高中低三个方案,在分析了人口增长过快所带来问题的基础上,提出了相应的对策建议。     

我国人口与社会经济重心的动态演变

本文利用区域重心的概念及其模型,计算了1978-2002年我国逐年的人口重心和社会经济重心,得到人口重心和社会经济重心的动态演变轨迹,分析了人口和社会经济发展区域差异的动态变化及其驱动因子,并对人口重心和社会经济发展重心的动态演变趋势进行了对比分析。     

兰州市老龄人口空间分布及其形成机制

文章运用2000年第五次及2010年第六次人口普查数据,对兰州市主城区老龄人口的空间分布及其形成机制进行了分析。结果表明:兰州市老龄人口增速快,各区增长差异显著,街区差距相对缓和;老龄人口比重呈圈层结构分布,街区间比重差异明显,老龄人口高密度街区范围扩大,空间特征呈现出明显的"双中心"结构;高龄老人增速快,老龄人口性别比下降,空巢家庭日益增加,老年抚养负担加重。其形成机制主要缘于历史沿革、社会发展、人口生育政策以及人口迁移的共同作用。     

THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

历史时期新疆北部城镇的形成与发展

历史时期新疆北部是草原游牧民族与汉族相互活动的区域,其城镇的形成与发展具有一定的草原文化景观特色。本文分析了新疆北部地区城镇的历史演变过程,提出其城镇萌芽于汉代前后,完善于清代后期,城镇的中心有一个从吉木萨尔-伊犁-乌鲁木齐的演变过程,并论述了新疆北部城镇形成与发展的特征和城镇发展的影响因素,得出研究历史城镇的发展对今天城镇建设与规划有一定的借鉴作用。     

STRATEGIC ESSENTIALISM AND THE FUTURE OF ETHNOHISTORY IN NORTH AMERICA

Leeds, Anthony, Sanjek, Roger, eds. Cities, Classes and the Social Order. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1994. xiii + 272 pp. including bibliography and index. $39.95 cloth; $16.95 paper.