美国中央情报局与中国西藏

本文主要分四个阶段考察了 2 0世纪中期美国通过中央情报局插手中国西藏问题的过程 ,指出所谓“西藏问题”只是美国实施全球战略、牵制中国的一个棋子。     

近20年福建长乐人移民美国的动机和条件——以长乐实地调查为主的分析

长乐人素有海上谋生的传统,并在近20年间塑造了移民海外的社会风尚。长乐与纽约之间巨大的收入差距和美国较好的谋生与发展条件,使长乐人选择美国作为移民的主要目的地。长乐人在美国成功建立的互助网络,使长乐人能承担巨额出国费用和成功地在美国求职与发展。因此,美国虽然是绝大部分中国国际移民的首选目的地,但唯有长乐人(福州人)能大规模移民美国,创造了在20年间近20万人成功地从一个仅60多万人口的县级市移民美国的奇迹。     

美国中央情报局对中国西藏的准军事行动(1949-1969)

1949至1969年间美国中央情报局向西藏分裂势力提供了一系列准军事援助。该援助行动的实质是为美国远东战略利益服务,其目标是利用西藏分裂势力遏制与分裂中国,具体内容主要包括：为西藏叛乱分子提供情报和准军事训练技术;在西藏实施公路袭扰和破坏行动;为达赖集团提供军事物资和活动经费;与印度情报机构开展针对中国的情报合作等等。     

试论美国新宗教右翼

20世纪下半叶是美国新保守主义崛起和活跃于美国政坛的时期。当代美国新保守主义力量主要由新型保守派（Neo—cons）、新右翼（New Right）和新宗教右翼（New Religious Right）所组成。作为以福音派和基要主义派等宗教组织为主体的当代美国宗教右翼,针对美国日益严重的社会问题和急剧下滑的道德价值观,假借“电子牧师”和“超级教会”等方式,以犹太-基督教传统价值观为基准,动员和组织了数千万福音派和基要主义派教徒,掀起了一场规模相当可观的宗教右翼运动,为美国保守主义的复兴和重返政坛立了大功。探讨当代美国保守主义时,新宗教右翼是一个不可或缺的部分。     

PLANNING: LESSONS FROM THE U.S.S.R.

Evaluation of the success of a plan requires the collection of statistics and indicators for monitoring purposes. In the health care field, outcomes are notoriously difficult to measure. To the extent that a successful program of prevention should result in providing less of a service, a conflict exists between planning and prevention: in the absence of outcome measures, success will be indistinguishable from failure, as in both cases, planned targets would not be met. To avoid this dilemma, an indicator-oriented planning system would be predicted to operationalize prevention in countable terms requiring increased inputs, or increased numbers of processes, regardless of the payoffs in health benefits. Screening, check-ups, and one-on-one contacts with health professionals would be emphasized at the expense of group-oriented activities or societal changes. Planning can thus have counter-productive policy implications. This theory is illustrated by reference to the current health care system in the U.S.S.R., including their anti-smoking and anti-alcoholism programmes.     

美国对以色列的政策及美以关系的发展（1948-1958）

以色列是在美国的支持下建立的。战后,美国通过插手巴勒斯坦事务,逐步从英国手中夺取处理该地区事务的主动权。在以色列建国伊始,美国给予这一新生国家巨大的帮助。但在战略上,美国并未将以色列视作特别重点考虑对象。在第二次中东战争结束以后,以色列开始受到特别关注,其在美中东战略中的地位和作用日渐突出。本文利用美国解密的档案材料及国内外学者的有关著述,对以建国初期(1948至1958年)美国对以色列的策略及美以关系的发展进行梳理与分析,希望有助于深刻理解美以特殊战略关系的形成及美以关系发展的现状。     

美国新城市主义运动的兴起及其面临的困境

霍华德的田园城市理论和以柯布西耶为代表的现代主义城市规划理论乃是当代欧美主流的城市规划理论,这些理论在美国的应用导致了郊区的低密度蔓延和中心城市的衰败。20世纪中期以来,欧美城市规划学界对主流规划思想进行深入的分析与批判,美国的新城市主义理论于20世纪80年代应运而生并形成一定规模的新城市主义规划运动。这一运动对于克服郊区的蔓延和中心城市的衰败发挥了积极的作用。但是,由于各种主客观原因,新城市主义运动并没有达到预期效果,因而同样遭到了学术界的质疑与批评。     

Regional Fertility Differentials and the Effect of Migration: An Analysis of U.S. State-level Data

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the influence of interregional migration on regional fertility differentials. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that regions that are closely linked through migration have, all else held constant, a lower differential in fertility than regions that are relatively isolated from one another. A model linking the fertility differential between two states to migration as well as a number of socioeconomic variables is articulated. The model is tested by means of a randomization procedure using U.S. state-level data for 1980. Results support the hypothesis that an increasing volume of interregional migration tends to lower regional fertility differentials.     

Geographically Weighted Quantile Regression (GWQR): An Application to U.S. Mortality Data

In recent years, techniques have been developed to explore spatial nonstationarity and to model the entire distribution of a regressand. The former is mainly addressed by geographically weighted regression (GWR), and the latter by quantile regression (QR). However, little attention has been paid to combining these analytical techniques. The goal of this article is to fill this gap by introducing geographically weighted quantile regression (GWQR). This study briefly reviews GWR and QR, respectively, and then outlines their synergy and a new approach, GWQR. The estimations of GWQR parameters and their standard errors, the cross‐validation bandwidth selection criterion, and the nonstationarity test are discussed. We apply GWQR to U.S. county data as an example, with mortality as the dependent variable and five social determinants as explanatory covariates. Maps summarize analytic results at the 5, 25, 50, 75, and 95 percentiles. We found that the associations between mortality and determinants vary not only spatially, but also simultaneously across the distribution of mortality. These new findings provide insights into the mortality literature, and are relevant to public policy and health promotion. Our GWQR approach bridges two important statistical approaches, and facilitates spatial quantile‐based statistical analyses. En los últimos años se han desarrollado diversas técnicas para explorar tanto la heterocedasticidad (o no estacionariedad) espacial, así como para modelar toda la distribución de una variable dependiente. El primer tema ha sido abordado principalmente por la regresión ponderada geográficamente (Geographically Weighted Regression ‐GWR), y el segundo por la regresión por cuantiles (Quantile Regression‐QR). La combinación de ambas técnicas analíticas, sin embargo, ha recibido mucho menos atención. El objetivo de este artículo es llenar dicho vacío mediante la propuesta de una regresión geográficamente ponderada por cuantiles (Geographically Weighted Quantile Regression‐ GWQR). Los autores resumen brevemente las técnicas GWR y QR respectivamente, y luego esbozan sus propiedades sinérgicas. Luego presentan la nueva técnica propuesta: GWQR. Los autores abordan los temas de las estimaciones de los parámetros GWQR y sus errores estándar, el criterio de selección del ancho de banda de la validación cruzada (cross‐validation bandwidth), y la prueba heterocedasticidad espacial. Como ejemplo se aplica GWQR a datos de la tasa de mortalidad como variable dependiente y cinco determinantes sociales como variables independientes para los condados de los Estados Unidos. Los patrones espaciales se presentan en mapas con los resultados del análisis para los percentiles 5, 25, 50, 75, y 95. Los resultados muestran que las asociaciones entre la mortalidad y sus factores determinantes no sólo varían espacialmente, sino también de forma simultánea a través de la distribución de la tasa de mortalidad. Estos nuevos hallazgos coinciden con la literatura de los estudios de mortalidad, y son relevantes para aplicaciones de política pública y promoción de la salud. El enfoque GWQR representa un puente conceptual y metodológico entre dos enfoques estadísticos importantes a la vez que hace más factible el análisis estadístico espacial por cuantiles. 近年来,可用于探讨空间非平稳性和模拟回归变数分布的技术得到发展。前者主要用地理加权回归方法（GWR）处理,后者采用分位数回归（QR）处理。然而对这些分析技术的结合使用却很少关注。本文试图通过提出地理加权分位数回归（GWQR）来填补这一空白。在分别简要回顾了GWR和QR方法的基础上,基于两个方法的协同应用提出了GWQR新方法,进而讨论了GWQR的参数估计、标准误差、带宽选择标准的交叉验证和非平稳性检验。本文将死亡率作为因变量及五个社会因子作为解释变量,进行了美国县域单元的案例研究,绘制了0.05、0.25、0.5、0.75和0.95不同百分位点的分析结果图。研究发现,死亡人数不仅与解释变量的空间分布相关,同时也与其地理分布相关。这些新发现不仅可促进对死亡率相关成果的深入分析,同时也与公共政策和健康促进有关。GWQR方法架构了QR和GWR两种重要统计方法之间的纽带,也促进了基于分位数的空间统计分析方法的发展。     

New military femininities: humanitarian violence and the gendered work of war among U.S. servicewomen

This article examines ‘military femininity’ in new gendered forms of labor employed by the U.S. military in the post-September 11 wars. Between 2003 and 2013, when women were technically banned from direct assignment to ground combat units, the U.S. military deployed all-female counterinsurgent teams in Iraq and Afghanistan. In various forms, these teams searched Iraqi women at checkpoints and in home raids, provided medical assistance to Afghan women and children, and participated in highly combative special operations missions alongside Army Rangers and Green Berets in Afghanistan. Recent literature on the gendering of counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan focuses mainly on the teams’ deployment of humanitarianism and affect as weapons of war, while older feminist critiques analyze women’s marginalization within military institutions. This article reconceptualizes military femininity, departing from the prevailing marginalization and humanitarian frameworks. Drawing on military and policy documents, first-hand observations of military trainings, and interviews with military trainers, I show how women were integrated into ground combat through the promotion of certain gender essentialisms, such as feminine domesticity, alongside military violence. A new form of military femininity has emerged that eschews humanitarian rhetoric, and instead emphasizes servicewomen’s lethality.     

Income Convergence across U.S. States: An Analysis Using Measures of Concordance and Discordance*

Abstract. This paper presents methods to analyze convergence in cross‐sectional data collected over time using distribution free statistics that are not sensitive to the magnitudes involved. Measures of concordance and discordance are employed in the empirical analysis of real personal income per capita for 48 U.S. States over the period 1929–2002. Although most States are converging with each other, some are converging faster than others. The methods used have the flexibility to focus on specific characteristics such as convergence in absolute differences or convergence in the ratio of rewards. The methods may also be used to consider convergence without switching and additionally be applied to other features such as the percentiles of the distributions.     

美国墨西哥移民的人口效应评析

作为一个移民国家,多样化的种族/民族构成一直是美国人口结构的一个显著特征,外来移民始终是改变美国人口结构和布局的一个重要因素。近几十年以来,墨西哥裔人成为美国人口增长最快的族群之一,这部分人口主要由两种成分组成:出生于美国的墨西哥裔人和来自墨西哥的移民。作为拉美裔群体中最大的组成部分,墨西哥裔占全部拉美裔人口2/3左右;目前,墨西哥移民在美国全部外来人口中所占份额最大,达到30%;墨裔人在美国总人口中的比重逐年上升。墨裔人口不断膨胀源于其较高的生育率和移民的持续增加。墨西哥移民增加了美国的外国出生人口的数量;改变了美国人口的种族/民族构成,给美国带来了空前的族群异质性;人口多元化还影响到种族/民族关系。