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FIRE IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON: A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODEL FOR POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS* 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Eugenio Y. Arima Cynthia S. Simmons Robert T. Walker Mark A. Cochrane 《Journal of regional science》2007,47(3):541-567
ABSTRACT. This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm-gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road-paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development. 相似文献
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Jerone Stephens 《政策研究杂志》1973,1(3):183-186