Famines past, famine's future

Famine, like poverty, has always been with us. No region and no century has been immune. Its scars — economic, psychological and political — can long outlast its immediate impact on mortality and health. Famines are a hallmark of economic backwardness, and were thus more likely to occur in the pre-industrialized past. Yet the twentieth century suffered some of the most devastating ever recorded. That century also saw shifts in both the causes and symptoms of famine. This new century's famines have been "small" by historical standards, and the threat of major ones seemingly confined to ever-smaller pockets of the globe. Are these shifts a sign of hope for the future?     

The Iranian Economy in the Twentieth Century: A Global Perspective

This paper examines the transformation of the Iranian economy through the twentieth century within a global context. At the start of that century, the Iranian economy had long remained stagnant, poor, and largely agrarian, with a marginal role in the world economy. By the turn of the twenty-first century, Iran had transformed into a complex and relatively large economy with important consequences for the economies of the Middle East and other parts of the world. While the initial conditions and the evolution of domestic institutions and resources played major roles in the pace and nature of that transformation, relations with the rest of the world had crucial influences as well. This paper focuses on the latter forces, while taking account of their interactions with domestic factors in shaping the particular form of economic development in Iran. We study the ways in which the development of the Iranian economy has been affected by international price movements and by the ebbs and flows of trade, investment, and economic growth in the rest of the world. In considering these effects, we also analyze the role of domestic political economy factors and policies in enhancing or hindering the ability of domestic producers to respond to external challenges and opportunities.     

A Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Health Care and Mortality Inequalities in China

Two geographers specializing in China TYalyze that country's health care inequality from 1990 to 2008, for the purpose of: (1) examining spatial-temporal variations of health care inequality at multiple scales (the regional, provincial, and county levels); (2) exploring whether economic growth and transition to a market economy have exacerbated the unevenness of health care; and (3) analyzing the impact of health care inequality on health outcomes, especially mortality. The authors apply GIS-based spatial statistical methods to detect spatial-temporal patterns of health care, and use multilevel regression to examine the linkages between health care, mortality, and regional economic inequality, and ultimately to assess the sensitivity of health care inequality to geographic scale and examine whether reforms implemented to date have resulted in more equitable access to health care. The paper also demonstrates how the concurrent transitions of decentralization, marketization, globalization, and urbanization in China have interactively contributed to health care inequality and mortality.     

Choices and responsibilities: finding the balance

Rapid population growth means the addition of a billion more people in 11 years. The International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), scheduled for September 5-13, 1994, will address the issue of population growth and design strategies for slower growth with economic development and environmental protection. This article summarizes Dr. Nafis Sadik's special preparatory message about the conference. The ICPD will address the issues of reproductive health, affordable family planning (FP), and informed choice. There will be an emphasis on better health care, housing, education, and other poverty alleviation measures. Empowerment of women through educational and economic opportunity and increased foreign aid are also themes. Improvements in the quality of life as well as demographic and social change are required. The key to slowing population growth is to meet the need for FP services to reduce fertility. Reexamination of the life-styles of the more affluent is also required. Needs and resources must be balanced. Sustainable development and resource use will depend upon slower population growth, more rational population distribution, alleviation of poverty, environmentally safer consumption patterns, and other measures. The 1994 draft plan of action has a broad mandate which recognizes the linkages between population and development. Target dates and reproductive rights language are bracketed and will be discussed during the conference. Quantitative goals are set for education, child and maternal mortality reduction, and universal access to FP and reproductive health services. The public should be made aware of the development and population links. Developing countries are asked to devote 20% of their government budget to social development. Countries by their action or inaction will choose a world population size in 2015 ranging from 7.27 to 7.92 billion. The difference of 660 million in 20 years is equal to the current population in Africa. The high projection for 2050 is 12.5 billion people. The ICPD will be the last global opportunity before the turn of the century to address the challenges of shared responsibility for the future of life on earth.     

The decrease in socioeconomic differences in mortality from 1920 to 2000 in the United States and England

This study found that the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on mortality decreased steadily during the twentieth century. It examined trends in age-specific adult mortality rates for employed men and infants in a number of social classes based on occupation in England and Wales and for black, white, and immigrant nationality groups of men, women, and infants in the United States. Both countries experienced continuing decreases in mortality rates and narrowing of SES differences in mortality rates from 1920 to the end of the century. Most of the decrease and narrowing in England and Wales occurred before the establishment of the National Health Service and the unprecedented improvements in clinical and preventive medicine after midcentury. Current cancer mortality rates in both countries show no consistent relationship with SES. The very low mortality rates of some low SES immigrant nationality groups in the United States throughout the century demonstrate that other social factors can have a greater effect on health than SES.     

Demographic transition theory: a neglected aspect of the nomadism-sedentarism continuum

This paper proposes an adaptation of demographic transition theory to the nomadism-sedentarism continuum. It is argued that a change along this continuum implies a change in the mode of production, which in turn entails changes in fertility and mortality. The following hypotheses are set forth: 1) at the pastoral phase of a nomadic society, fertility is relatively low and mortality is relatively high, yielding a low rate of natural increase; 2) as a pastoral nomadic society senentarizes, fertility begins to rise and mortality falls, resulting in a sharp rise in natural increase, but as sedentarization becomes more advanced, both these trends slow down somewhat; 3) as the nomadic society becomes fully sedentarized, there is a period in which fertility remains at a high level but then begins to fall slowly, whereas mortality, after reaching a temporary minimum, exhibits a minor increase followed by a resumption of a declining trend; and 4) in the postsedentarization phase, the demographic regime of the ex-nomads becomes similar to the 2nd and 3rd stages of the original demographic transition theory, with a slowdown of the decline in mortality, followed by a later slowdown of fertility and of the rate of natural increase. The hypothesis of rising fertility among sedentarizing nomads is related to both social modernization and economic growth and development, including an improved standard of living and public health services. The interrelated processes of general societal responses to population growth and the changing role of children in the family are assumed to account for the eventual fertility decline. Data from several countries, including a case history from Israel, suggest that birth rates increase along the continuum but their decline at postsedentarization will depend on trends in the general rural sector. Natural increase rates of sedentarizing nomads are considerably higher than those of pastoral nomads. It is concluded that this approach may fill a gap in demographic transition theory and provide a conceptual framework for future studies.     

A generational attitude: young adults facing the economic crisis in Milan

Abstract

For almost 10 years there has been talk of the economic crisis affecting the European area, with more evident effects in the Mediterranean countries. Yet the expression ‘economic crisis’ has become too wide and blurred to be useful for describing how the current socio-economic conjuncture is affecting different categories of young people in different ways. Precariousness and reduced job opportunities, with their consequences for social mobility, constitute only the more explicit and raw evidence of the lived experience of the crisis among young people. Although families remain the all-solving institution, the consequences of the crisis are diversified according to the economic, cultural and social capital of each individual, to gender and generation position, and to subjective and contextualized perceptions. This article presents research conducted to investigate how young people living in the urban area of Milan locate, react, readapt and reinvent themselves in the present economic context by analysing their aspirations, expectations and practices. We develop a comparative analysis of the main structural bias (gender, education, social class position) in order to shed light on the effects and perceptions of the crisis among young people in the city of Milan.     

俄罗斯华侨华人与俄联邦的移民政策

20世纪末, 伴随着中俄改革的大潮, 大批中国人涌向了俄罗斯, 形成了一个不小的华侨华人群体, 他们为中俄两国的文化交流、贸易往来和经济发展做出了巨大贡献。本文试图求本溯源, 客观地去认识自17世纪中叶以来华侨华人在俄苏的历史, 揭示、反思新一代华侨华人在俄国的生存发展状态和社会历史背景及他们在俄罗斯各国移民中的地位, 分析不同阶层的俄罗斯人对华侨华人的不同看法和态度及俄罗斯联邦政府十多年来移民机构、移民政策的发展变化, 特别是针对中国人的政策变化, 以探讨在新的历史条件下, 华侨华人如何在俄罗斯这片热土上更好地发展, 从而为促进中俄两国人民的睦邻友好、加快两国的经济建设步伐做出更大贡献。     

Perspectives on the Rise and Fall of Swedish Cardiac Epidemics

Morbidity and mortality in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can be described as an ongoing epidemic, although a very protracted one, lasting more than 100 years. Cardiovascular diseasesstill top mortality rates in the world today, accounting for about 30% of all deaths around the globe. But it is in the industrialized world that CVD dominate, although differences are great among various regions. Myocardial infarctions are significantly more common in Sweden than in southern Europe, but less common than in Eastern Europe. The overall question concerns the consequences for health in areas on the road to a post-industrial society. Over the years a clearer link has become visible between lifestyle and health. In Sweden, infectious diseases diminished as result of rising living standards. At the same time cardiovascular diseases were beginning their upward phase, reaching a peak in the 1960s. Deaths due to CVD bring to light significant discrepancies related to socio-economic and cultural factors. A comparison of the Swedish twin cities Linköping and Norrköping show considerable differences in death rates in favour of Linköping, amounting to about 30% fewer in the 1920s with a tendency toward rising differences thereafter. A preliminary investigation of diagnoses has shown that links commonly made between health and socio-economic patterns need revision. The differences in cardiovascular morbidity show another pattern than was expected. It is obvious that the neighbourhood environments themselves have significance, and that the inequalities need additional research based on complementary explanatory models.     

The development of the Florentine silk industry: a positive response to the crisis of the fourteenth century

The development of the silk industry in Renaissance Florence – as in other large Italian cities such as Venice, Genoa, Bologna and Milan – was a response to the profound economic changes wrought by the demographic crisis of the fourteenth century. The decrease in the available labour supply, the rise in labour costs, changes in demand and consumption, particularly among the upper classes, encouraged entrepreneurs in Florence and other urban economies of Renaissance Italy to direct their manufacturing interests towards the production of expensive high-quality goods. The Florentine silk industry was born in the last decades of the fourteenth century, and in the fifteenth century quickly developed into a dynamic industry capable of producing large quantities of luxury fabrics for export to all the principal European markets.     

Two millennia of male stature development and population health and wealth in the Low Countries

This paper offers a review of shifts in average male stature and their relationship with health and wealth in the Low Countries from AD 50 to 1997. Twenty‐one population samples were studied to cover the full time span. To make data compatible, so‐called ‘virtual statures’ were used, i.e. the statures which adult males were supposed to have had at the end of their growth period, before they started shrinking by ageing. Original data were extracted from ‘in situ measured statures’, ‘calculated statures’ and ‘corrected cadaveric statures’. If possible, maximum femoral lengths were also collected from the same population samples to check whether trends in stature development were in agreement with raw skeletal data. A long phase of stature decrease from ca. 176 cm to 166 cm, a so‐called ‘negative secular trend’, was noticed from the Roman Period up to and including the first half of the 19th century. This was followed by a sharp and still ongoing increase in stature to 184 cm, a typical ‘positive secular trend’, from the second half of the 19th century to the present time. General shifts in stature and ‘outliers’ illustrative for the process are viewed in the context of socio‐economic, demographic, health and nutritional factors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FORCED LABOUR AND RISING FERTILITY IN COLONIAL INDONESIA

This paper presents empirical evidence to support the labour demand theory of rising reproductive fertility in colonial Indonesia. According to this theory, birth rates in nineteenth-century Java rose as a direct result of the labour burden imposed upon women and their children by the Cultivation System of compulsory labour services. The theory was conceived in the 1970s as a reaction against the assumption that rapid population growth in colonial Indonesia must have reflected improvements in economic and health conditions under Dutch rule. The difficulty of testing the labour demand theory empirically, together with its counterintuitive quality and its ideological origins, led it to be sceptically received. However, newly-assembled statistical data from Minahasa—one of the few areas outside Java where compulsory cultivation services were introduced in the nineteenth century—suggest that the theory is in fact correct. The existence of a positive link between labour demand and fertility helps explain not only the paradox of population growth without rapid economic growth or public health improvements in nineteenth-century Java, but also the ‘involutionary’ cycle of agricultural intensification, population growth and impoverishment which seems to be a recurrent feature of Southeast Asian history.     

Increasing returns to scale in the towns of early Tudor England

Abstract

Urban agglomeration economies make cities central to theories of modern economic growth. There is historical evidence for the presence of Smithian growth and agglomeration effects in English towns c.1450-1670, but seminal assessments deny the presence of agglomeration effects and productivity gains to Early Modern English towns. This study evaluates the presence of increasing returns to scale (IRS) in aggregate urban economic outputs—the empirical signature of feedbacks between Smithian growth and agglomeration effects—among the towns of 16th century England. To do so, we test a model from settlement scaling theory against the 1524/5 Lay Subsidy returns. Analysis of these data indicates that Tudor towns exhibited IRS—a finding that is robust to alternative interpretations of the data. IRS holds even for the smallest towns in our sample, suggesting the absence of town size thresholds for the emergence of agglomeration effects. Spatial patterning of scaling residuals further suggests regional demand-side interactions with Smithian-agglomeration feedbacks. These findings suggest the presence of agglomeration effects and Smithian growth in pre-industrial English towns. This begs us to reconsider the economic performance of Early Modern English towns, and suggests that the qualitative economic dynamics of contemporary cities may be applicable to premodern settlements in general.     

Technological Change and the Archaeology of Emergent Colonialism in the Kingdom of Hawai‘i

Archaeologically informed history is vital for examining the consequences of emergent colonialism in the nineteenth century and earlier, since documentary sources are silent on many facets of everyday life. Interpretations of contact and colonialism in Oceania often highlight rapid changes in the technologies and practices of its traditional island societies. In Hawai‘i, the top-down imposition of indigenous elite power greatly influenced the rate and character of technological change, as commoner access to European and American goods was initially curtailed in this highly stratified society. Although indigenous elites purposively used imported goods and technologies to materialize their hybrid identity—and to expand their political and economic power—this phenomenon presaged the development of unrestrained colonialism by Euro-Americans in the late nineteenth century. This study illustrates the need to examine a range of cultural and historical contingencies in studies of technological change during periods of emergent colonialism.     

转型时期普鲁士官僚的经济改革思想和国家企业促进政策

作为欧洲相对落后的国家,普鲁士在19世纪初的工业化进程中实行了国家企业促进政策。但区别于早期由国家大包大揽的重商主义政策,这个时期的国家经济政策在吸收自由经济思想的基础上,结合了本国化传统的一些特点和经济发展的实际状况。其核心内容是通过各种教育手段,转变企业主观念,焕发人们从事工业活动的巨大热情,营造企业化的氛围。普鲁士后来工业化的成功正是这一政策推行的结果。     

Battle of the bedroom

The Philippine government's position on aggressive population management is in conflict with the Catholic Church's opposition to artificial means of birth control, particularly sterilization. The Episcopal Commission for Family Life plans to increase its campaign against contraception at their local level. The government effort through the Department of health will provide access to contraception in a network of 600 hospitals and 1500 rural health units. Government support comes from 2 Protestant churches, the Church of Christ, which is the largest independent church in the Philippines, and the United Church of Christ. Leaders of both churches gave the Minister of Health letters of support which stated that family planning (FP) was necessary to curb population growth which was too high, and China and Thailand are countries which are economically better off with population planning. The government position is similar to former President Corazon Aquino's. The new President, Fidel Ramos, is a protestant and wants economic prosperity for the Philippines; part of the formula for achieving economic growth is slowing population growth. There is limited resources in a sluggish economy and the push for zero population growth can be accomplished through effective contraception. The birth rate fuels poverty is the position of Juan Flavier, Health Secretary. Annual population growth is 2.3% and family size is 4.8/couple while agricultural growth is only 1%. The ideal family size recommended is 2 children/family. The Philippine Commission on Population in its 6-year plan is hoping to obtain 200 million in foreign aid and involve a larger network of nongovernmental organizations. Choice is the key component. Women need to be convinced that birth spacing will reduce maternal and infant mortality. Flavier has reassured Cardinal Jaime Sin of the Catholic Church that Natural methods or the rhythm method would be taught. Health experts argue that the discipline and sacrifice necessary for effective natural methods is lacking.     

The Greeks as an alien minority at the outset of Ethiopia's economic development, 1880–1910

Abstract

Between 1880 and 1910, Greeks constituted one of the largest foreign ethnic communities, in Ethiopia and as such they played an important role in the modernization efforts of Emperor Menilik II (1889–1913). During his reign, Ethiopia's modern economic development had its rudimentary beginnings when, with the participation of resident foreigners, he embarked on an ambitious, although haphazard program to raise his country's material standards. The Italian defeat at Adua in 1896 not only secured Ethiopian independence, but the absence of a single colonial ruler enabled Menilik to seek among various foreign groups the skills and resources necessary for economic development which were then lacking among the indigenous population. Greek participation in construction, internal and external commerce, and in petty retailing contributed to the foundation of Ethiopia's economic growth in the twentieth century.     

Life on the Edge of the Arctic: The Bioarchaeology of the Keldudalur Cemetery in Skagafjörður,Iceland

Burials were examined from the late Viking Age early medieval Christian cemetery at the farm of Keldudalur in the Skagafjörður region, Northern Iceland. The cemetery likely served a single household for about 100–120 years, from the beginning of the 11th century AD to the turn of the 12th century. Cemetery inhabitants represent a population that lived through the transitional period when Christianity was established in Iceland. The changes are visible in the mortuary record with the changeover from outlying pagan graves to enclosed Christian cemeteries situated on the farmsteads. Keldudalur is one of the numerous early Christian family cemeteries that littered the 11th century Skagafjörður landscape. The burials included 53 well‐preserved skeletons of 27 adults and 26 subadults. Various factors such as fluctuating climate and environmental conditions, and seasonal or periodical availability of resources have the potential for impacting human diet and health over time. To assess the health status of the burials, data were collected for a number of health status indicators such as stature estimation, developmental enamel defects, porotic hyperostosis, infectious disease, trauma, degenerative joint diseases, dental caries, calculus and tooth loss. Results suggest that inhabitants of Keldudalur experienced periodic stress and rigorous living conditions. Infant mortality was great, although if individuals survived childhood, the age expectancy was fairly high. There was no obvious evidence for interpersonal violence or endemic infectious disease. However, the common occurrence of growth disturbances, generalised periostitis, trauma and degenerative joint disease all point to a number of stressors in the lives of the people at Keldudalur, which is suggestive of a resilient people living and adapting to a harsh and periodically resource scarce subarctic environment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revealing circumstances of epidemiologic transition among Indigenous peoples: The case of the Keg River (Alberta) Métis

Rates of type 2 diabetes and other metabolic disorders are elevated among Indigenous peoples; however, no research has examined the origins of these diseases among the Métis. This case study documents a transition in lifestyle and health that affected the Keg River Métis of northern Alberta during the middle decades of the 20^th century. This community began to experience previously absent diseases, including obesity, heart disease, gestational and type 2 diabetes, and preeclampsia. This shift in disease burden appears tied to rapid socio‐cultural and economic change driven by a decline of traditional economic activities, access to government transfer payments and wage labour, an increasingly sedentary lifestyle, and a growing availability of non‐traditional foods. This study points to earlier emergence of diabetes among Canadian Indigenous populations than commonly credited and presents the case for a rapidly evolving epidemic tied to environmental and cultural change. Underlying this were structural changes that emerged out of colonization.