Contextualizing Welfare's Work Disincentive: The Case of Female-headed Family Poverty

The conventional model of the relationship between welfare incentives and poverty rates holds that welfare payments produce an income-enhancement effect that removes families from poverty until some threshold. Beyond this point increased payments engender a work-disincentive effect resulting in increased rates of poverty. We challenge the model's assumption that poverty levels are a simple and spatially invariant response to welfare incentives, contending instead that local employment conditions may substantially alter the relation. Our reformulation of the conventional modeling approach is based on the expansion method. Specifically, we extend the model to include the effects of local labor-market conditions on the response of poverty levels to welfare incentives. In contesting the invariance assumption, the expansion method allows us to determine where and in what contexts welfare is “work discouraging.” The empirical analysis, which is undertaken at the county level, indicates that welfare payments vary in their influence on poverty rates across different employment contexts. A national map portraying this parameter instability demonstrates that female-family poverty rates are most responsive to welfare assistance in the rural South and least responsive in the metropolitan Northeast. Finally, we examine two sharply contrasting locales to illustrate how poverty is governed by specific employment and welfare characteristics.     

Child Poverty in the American States: The Impact of Welfare Reform,Economics, and Demographics

This article identifies the predictors of child poverty rates at the state level before and after the adoption and implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. The analysis shows that the most important state‐level factors that influence child poverty rates are demographics, the health and viability of the state economy, and often the generosity, inclusiveness, and quality of state welfare programs. States with large numbers of black citizens, and those that score highest on infant mortality, teen births, births to unmarried women, children living with a parent without a high school degree, and children living with a single parent have the highest rates of child poverty. Child poverty rates are lowest in states that suffer less unemployment, and in wealthier states. States that score higher on per capita personal income, tax revenues, and taxable resources have lower child poverty rates. While specific “tough” welfare policies adopted by some states seem to have no impact on child poverty rates, we tested for the first time a sophisticated measure of the overall quality of state welfare programs. The analysis reveals that the global quality of a state's welfare programs is often an independent predictor of child poverty. States with the most generous, inclusive, and supportive welfare programs have done the best job of lowering and containing child poverty.     

The Supreme Court as a Policy Arena: The Strategies and Tactics of State Attorneys General

Presently, state governments are more active and more successful in the U.S. Supreme Court than at any time since the New Deal. These rates of activity and success are a function of two coincident forces—the emergence of the Republican Court and the increased capacity of the states to pursue their policy goals aggressively before the High Bench. In this analysis, we seek to offer a better-defined portrait of the states' evolving advocacy in the Supreme Court. Using archival and survey data, we find that, as a group, the states are more capable Supreme Court litigators, that their perceptions of the Republican Court have encouraged them to increase their pursuit of policy goals through litigation, and that they are "procedurally rational"—i.e., their estimates of success enter into their decisions to engage the Court.     

Welfare Caseload Change: An Alternative Approach

In the last decade, caseloads in AFDC/TANF have shifted dramatically up, then down. Of existing studies based on time series or state panel data, some tend to underplay the role of welfare reform. All say little about what policies drove the decline or about the role of governmental quality. An approach using cross-sectional models explains interstate differences in caseload change rather than the national trend but allows more discussion about the role of policy and government. Results suggest that grant levels, work and child support requirements, and sanctions are important explainers of change, along with some demographic terms and unemployment. These policies in turn are tied to states' political opinion, political culture, and institutional capacity. Moralistic states seem the most capable of transforming welfare in the manner the public wants.     

Does Econometric Methodology Matter? An Analysis of Public Policy Using Spatial Econometric Techniques

A popular approach to examining the effects of public policy has been to rely on a spatial data sample of border counties as in Holmes (1998)—border counties from a sample of states that are used in conjunction with least‐squares estimation techniques in an attempt to isolate the policy impact while controlling for spatial dependence that often arises from latent or unobserved variables. This technique is in the spirit of control‐group methodologies from the laboratory sciences. This paper contrasts border‐county estimation results from Holmes' (1998) approach and those from a related methodology set forth in Holcombe and Lacombe (2003), with estimates from a spatial autoregressive model explicitly accounting for within‐state and between‐state public policy effects. As an illustration, the paper examines the effects of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Food Stamp payments on female‐headed households and female labor force participation using the three different methods.     

Policy Interaction in the Provision of Unemployment Insurance and Low-Income Assistance by State Governments

In this paper we investigate empirical relationships between Unemployment Insurance (UI) and welfare policies using a unique database covering 48 states annually from 1973 through 1989. We first document substantial variation across states in UI program outcomes. Having established that UI is so variable, we explore the simultaneous interaction between UI and Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), Medicaid, and total state and local welfare spending. Our econometric results indicate substitution between the two cash assistance programs, AFDC and UI, by state governments. On the other hand, states that operate relatively generous UI programs also tend to allocate more resources to Medicaid and other in-kind, low-income assistance programs.     

Heterogeneity of birth-state effects on internal migration

Working in a discrete location choice framework, we develop a model of migration that allows the identification of heterogeneity in state-of-birth effects across states. We employ a novel method for using aggregate data to estimate the role of birth state on migration choices. This approach reveals considerable heterogeneity and some regional clustering in birth-state inertia effects across states, with strong attachments in California, the Southwest, and the upper Midwest. The weakest attachments are in the mountain states and New York.     

The Historical Impact of Welfare Programs on Poverty: Evidence from the American States

Over the years, there has been a spirited debate over the impact of the welfare expansion associated with the War on Poverty. Many analysts have maintained that public assistance expansion during this period decreased poverty by raising the incomes of the poor (an income enhancement effect), while others have contended that welfare expansion increased poverty by discouraging the poor from working (a work disincentive effect). There has been considerable empirical research about the historical effect of welfare on poverty, nearly all of which relies on the poverty rate (i.e., the percentage of persons with income less than the “poverty threshold”) as an indicator of the extent of poverty. However, this work has not employed designs that allow researchers to sort out distinct income enhancement and work disincentive effects. We develop a model of poverty rates in the American states that permits estimation of these distinct effects—based on state‐level time‐series data observed annually for the years 1960–90—and we find that welfare had both effects during our period of analysis. We also calculate the net impact of increases in welfare benefits on the poverty rate—taking into account both work disincentive and income enhancement effects. Our results indicate that this net impact is dependent on three variables: the initial level of cash benefits, wage levels for unskilled workers, and the share of the benefit increase provided through cash rather than in‐kind assistance. Because of historical trends in these variables, since the 1970s welfare spending has become increasingly less effective in reducing the poverty rate. However, the significance of this result for policymakers must be tempered by evidence that flaws in the poverty rate as an indicator of poverty make it so that any finding about the net effect of an increase in welfare benefits on the poverty rate underestimates welfare's ability to lessen the true extent of poverty.     

Saints, Stalwarts, and Slackers: State Financial Contributions to Welfare Reform

Considerable literature finds that spending levels are important predictors of poverty rates, both in the American states and in western European nations. Those jurisdictions with the most generous support programs generally have lower poverty rates. This article examines state Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) spending levels in relation to national norms, the spending ability of the state as predicted by their total taxable revenue base, and the state's poverty rate. The analysis shows enormous variation in state per capita TANF spending, with many states spending far less than the national mean and their fiscal capacity. Most of the low-spending states have the fiscal ability to fund more vigorous programs but at optimal levels; some would still fall below the national mean. In return for improved funding, these states would be candidates for increased federal assistance. A few states with a high poverty rate and usually with large numbers of poor citizens are generous spenders, indicating that funding is one component of effective programs.     

Redistricting principles and incumbency protection in the U.S. Congress

Critics of congressional redistricting have argued that recent legislative gerrymandering severely undermines electoral competitiveness to the point of violating constitutional equal protection standards. In this paper, we assess how states' redistricting plans vary in incumbency protection. Particularly, we evaluate whether redistricting principles and processes had any measurable consequence in incumbency protection in the 2000 redistricting cycle. We first report substantial regional variation across states in the principles formally noted in state redistricting laws. We then report results showing that some traditional, “politically neutral” redistricting principles and less politicized processes significantly diminish incumbency protection. Our results indicate significant incumbency gerrymandering across states in the recent cycle; however, states have significantly less incumbency protection when they specify specific population- and politically-based principles while suppressing elected officials' agenda setting influence in the districting process.     

A European ‘society of states’—but only states of mind?

The late Martin Wight (1917–72) made a significant contribution to the study of International Relations by developing the concept of an international 'society of states'. In such a society, he argued, states accept a number of norms and conventions governing their behaviour, which facilitate the management and resolution of interstate conflicts. The article argues that some of Wight's concepts can help to illuminate the current functioning of the European Union—seen as a body of states subject to a wide range of rules, both formal and informal—especially if these concepts are combined with the 'scientific' research methods developed more recently. In this connection, particular attention is paid to the historically based theoretical model developed by Andrew Moravcsik.     

Mean consumption, poverty and inequality in rural India in the 60th round of the National Sample Survey

This article reports on mean consumption, poverty (all three FGT measures) and inequality during 2004 for rural India using National Sample Survey (NSS) data for the 60th Round. Mean consumption at the national level is much higher than the poverty line. However, the Gini coefficient is higher than in recent earlier rounds. The headcount ratio is 22.9 per cent. Mean consumption, all three measures of poverty and the Gini coefficient are computed at the level of 20 states and 63 agro-climatic zones in these 20 states. It is surmised that despite impressive growth rates deprivation is pervasive, pockets of severe poverty persist, and inequality is rampant.     

THE EFFECT OF YOUTH POVERTY RATES AND MIGRATION ON ADULT WAGES

We created a migration and earnings history from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to analyze the effects of youth county poverty rates on the adult earnings of white male migrants. We estimate a log wage equation that includes human capital measures, migration types, county poverty rates, and a rural–poverty rate interaction variable. Growing up in a rural county has a negative impact on adult wages independent of youth county poverty rates, but the rural effect is significantly greater for those who grew up in high poverty counties. Youth county poverty rates indirectly affect wages through the returns to migration.     

乡村旅游对贫困山区农户多维贫困的影响研究

在分析乡村旅游对农户多维贫困影响机理的基础上,利用陕西4市22个乡村旅游扶贫村农户调查数据,采用内生转换回归模型,定量分析了乡村旅游对贫困山区农户多维贫困的影响。研究发现：多维贫困程度越深,农户参与旅游比例越低,乡村旅游不具有天然益贫性;参与旅游能够显著减缓农户的多维贫困。从单维贫困看,乡村旅游对调查地农户的经济、教育、生活水平和权利维度具有显著的减贫效应,其中对生活水平的减贫效应最大,健康维度效应不显著;参与和未参与乡村旅游的农户在多维贫困以及经济、生活水平维度的减贫影响因素存在着显著差异,而在教育、健康、权利维度的减贫影响因素差异不大。据此,从乡村旅游经营、精准帮扶、权益保障等方面提出对策建议。     

DISTANCE FROM URBAN AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AND RURAL POVERTY*

ABSTRACT Despite strong national economic growth and significant poverty reduction during the late 1990s, high poverty persisted in remote rural areas. This study uses a geographical information system county database to examine the nexus between rural U.S. poverty and remoteness. We find that poverty rates increase with greater rural distances from successively larger metropolitan areas (MAs). We explain this outcome as arising from the attenuation of urban agglomeration effects at greater distances and incomplete commuting and migration responses to lower labor demand in rural areas. One implication is that remote areas may particularly experience greater reductions in poverty from place‐based economic development policies.     

The sociospatial ecology of deaths during police interactions in the United States, 2016–2020

Who dies in police custody? Where? To answer these questions, we use spatially disaggregated georeferenced data that measure 9098 deaths occurring by multiple causes during interactions with police throughout the U.S. from 2016 to 2020. We use a Sociospatial Ecology framework and Bayesian statistics over U.S. counties that establishes the relationship between social contexts – regional poverty, White/non-White population, violent crime rates, and political identity – and the risk of dying during police interactions. In addition, we evaluate the effects of police force Whiteness on deaths during police interactions. Controlling for alternative explanations, we show heterogeneous distributions of fatality risk, with large clusters in the Southwest and isolated high-probability pockets in other states. Risk maps allowing for visualization of these patterns are provided. We arrive at five main results. 1) There is a general trend of higher death during police interaction in areas of high poverty, fewer White people, higher violent crime rates, and higher populations with conservative values. 2) A great risk of deadly encounters for Black people exists throughout most of the U.S., while regional patterns of high risk exist for all other people of color. 3) White deaths during police interactions are most sensitive to ecological factors. 4) The risk of Blacks getting killed by police increases in White areas regardless of violent crime rates. 5) Higher proportions of White police within U.S. counties leads to higher interactive death risk for all races/ethnicities except Asian/Pacific Islander. Ultimately, our findings identify widespread racial/ethnic biases in situations of power and control.     

Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics of Areal Prevalence Rates under High Uncertainty in Denominator Data

We propose a new estimator of spatial autocorrelation of areal incidence or prevalence rates in small areas, such as crime and health indicators, for correcting spatially heterogeneous sampling errors in denominator data. The approach is dubbed the heteroscedasticity‐consistent empirical Bayes (HC‐EB) method. As American Community Survey (ACS) data have been released to the public for small census geographies, small‐area estimates now form the demographic landscape of neighborhoods. Meanwhile, there is growing awareness of the diminished statistical validity of global and local Moran’s I when such small‐area estimates are used in denominator data. Using teen birth rates by census tracts in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, we present comparisons of conventional and new HC‐EB estimates of Global and Local Moran’s I statistics created on ACS data, along with estimates on ground truth values from the 2010 decennial census. Results show that the new adjustment method dramatically enhances the statistical validity of global and local spatial autocorrelation statistics.     

STATE PER CAPITA INCOME CONVERGENCE SINCE 1950: SHARECROPPING'S DEMISE AND OTHER INFLUENCES*

ABSTRACT. Prevailing theories wrongly attribute post-1950 convergence of state per capita incomes to (1) neoclassical adjustment mechanisms, (2) institutional sclerosis, and (3) southern industrialization. But convergence-essentially a weakening of southern poverty–resulted mainly from the South's overcoming its legacy of slavery: the sharecropper-tenant system, agricultural dependence, high black population percentages, poor education, and low wage rates. Sharecropping was the dominant feature; abject poverty among sharecroppers dragged southern income to its knees. Sharecropping's collapse and attendant South-to-North migration affected the legacy's other features in ways that raised income. Manufacturing growth and transport improvements caused relative income in the West to decline.     

Effects of U.S. States' Social Welfare Systems on Population Health

Social scientists have studied the welfare state extensively. Many studies seek to understand the determinants of the welfare state; however, a few have explored the social consequences of social welfare systems, especially on health outcomes of the population. Even though cross-national comparative studies support the thesis that the welfare state regime type, which represents different levels of commitment on social welfare, is closely linked to population health, there is little research to support this argument at a sub-national level. To fill the gap, this study explores the effects of the U.S. states' social welfare systems on health using age-adjusted mortality rates as a proxy for population health. By operationalizing social welfare systems as three dimensions—public expenditures, tax structures, and welfare program rules—we find that more generous education spending, progressive tax systems, and more lenient welfare program rules help to improve population health. The model corrects for first-order serial correlation using Prais-Winsten regression methods and is estimated with state and year-fixed effects.     

Urban and Rural Estimates of Poverty: Recent Advances in Spatial Microsimulation in Australia

This paper reports on the calculation of poverty rates for small areas in Australia using a spatial microsimulation model. The spatial microsimulation methodology used involves reweighting data from confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) from surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to small area census data, also from the ABS. The method is described in this paper, and then maps of poverty using poverty rates derived from this small area estimation method are shown for the eastern coast of Australia and its capital cities. Further analysis of poverty rates in capital cities is then conducted. We find that areas of higher poverty risk can be clearly identified within Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Brisbane. We also find that areas of high poverty are frequently ‘buffered’ by areas of moderate poverty. This is not always the case since, in some areas, we find a high poverty area neighbouring a low poverty area but, generally, there appears to be a moderate poverty ‘buffer’ in most capital cities.