Population size, concentration, and civil war. A geographically disaggregated analysis

Why do larger countries have more armed conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses put forward in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups. These hypotheses are based on population mass and concentrations, distances, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested with a new dataset – ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset) – that disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze these types of data. The analysis shows that the risk of conflict events increases with local population size, and is particularly large in highly populous locations within a country. We find only a moderate difference in conflict-proneness between areas located close to or far from a country's capital, except when combined with population concentration: Conflict events cluster particularly strongly in larger population concentrations that are distant from the capital, such as the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo.     

Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited

For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already with us. According to this view, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced within Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration; and this migration in turn exacerbated the socio-economic stresses that underpinned Syria's descent into war. This article provides a systematic interrogation of these claims, and finds little merit to them. Amongst other things it shows that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in Syria's pre-civil war drought; that this drought did not cause anywhere near the scale of migration that is often alleged; and that there exists no solid evidence that drought migration pressures in Syria contributed to civil war onset. The Syria case, the article finds, does not support ‘threat multiplier’ views of the impacts of climate change; to the contrary, we conclude, policymakers, commentators and scholars alike should exercise far greater caution when drawing such linkages or when securitising climate change.     

Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003–2005

This paper investigates spatial associations between environmental change and violence in Darfur. Long-term variations in the geographical distribution of water and vegetative resources can foster migration from areas with decreasing levels of resource availability to areas with increasing levels. Rising ethnic diversity and resource competition can, in turn, escalate the risk of violence in areas of high in-migration. This paper employs a multimethod approach to investigate this hypothesis. Qualitative evidence is used to demonstrate the plausibility of the argument for the case of Darfur. The quantitative analysis is based on information retrieved from satellite imagery on long-term vegetation change and the spatial distribution of attacks on villages in the early phase of the civil war (2003–2005). The findings indicate that violence has been more likely and intense in areas that experienced increasing availability of water and vegetative resources during the 20 years prior to the civil war.     

海洋出水木质文物保护中的硫铁化合物问题

海洋出水的木质文物中通常会沉积硫铁化合物。打捞出水后,硫铁化合物遇到空气和水分后会发生氧化,生成硫酸以及各种硫酸盐,并引起有机质的降解。近年来,硫铁化合物对海洋出水木质文物的危害已引起广泛关注。为此,本工作阐述了硫铁化合物相关问题的研究现状,就硫铁化合物的产生原因、危害以及目前控制方法的研究进展进行了总结,同时评述了针对硫铁化合物的处理方法。     

Forging political entrepreneurs: Civil war effects on post-conflict politics in Italy

How does violent mobilization affect post-conflict elections? This article studies the impact that violent collective mobilization has on local electoral behavior after domestic conflict. We argue that post-conflict democratic politics at the local level can be dramatically affected by local experience of civil war. The use of violence during the war and especially local political entrepreneurs who have emerged from the conflict can influence post-violent politics. We use as case-study the civil war that took place in Italy during the last phase of World War II. Using new spatially disaggregated data on armed groups' location and violent episodes, we assess the impact of the violent mobilization on the 1946 elections, which took place after the conflict. We find that partisans' mobilization and, more weakly, Nazi-Fascist violent acts influenced local politics, shifting votes towards more radical positions. Our findings hold across numerous robustness checks.     

美国内战时期南部邦联政府的财政政策

美国内战期间,南部邦联财政政策的主要目标是筹措资金。为达到此目的,南部邦联政府采取了征税和发行国库券与债券等措施。由于通过征税获得的财政收入微乎其微,南部邦联政府的财政资金便主要依靠发行国库券和债券。此举固然使得南部邦联政府短期获得一部分可支配资金,但由于南部邦联没有坚实雄厚的财政基础,又得不到外来有力的资金援助和支持,因此南部邦联财政政策并未实现既定目标,反而引发了通货膨胀和物价飞涨,加剧了南部邦联的民心涣散,最终加速了南部邦联的失败。     

Transboundary conservation and militarized interstate disputes

Advocates of transboundary conservation argue that borderlands can be a source of cooperation between neighboring states that previously engaged in conflict. It has been stated that, by opening negotiation channels based on environmental issues, jointly managed cross-border protected areas can promote and reinforce harmonious relations between contiguous states. We explore this assertion by empirically testing how transboundary protected areas (TBPAs) are related to militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) between contiguous states. Through the use of global data on protected areas and MIDs, we find that TBPAs tend to be established between countries that have previously been engaged in MIDs. We also find some evidence that TBPAs can be related to a more peaceful co-existence between neighboring countries in Africa, Middle East, and Asia.     

Teaching terrorism,saving the state? Education and geopolitical imaginations of terrorism in 12 violently challenged states

The role of education in political socialisation and the importance of terrorism discourses in promoting (or silencing) certain interests have long been acknowledged. This study combines both themes by asking: How do school textbooks, sanctioned by states that are violently challenged by internal opposition, discuss the issue of terrorism? I draw on, and contribute to, four distinct, yet related streams of research: critical geopolitics, critical terrorism studies, geographies of education, and young people's geographies. Simultaneously, while most work on the topic focuses on individual cases (typically of Western countries), I conduct the first comparative analysis of twelve countries from different world regions: China, Egypt, India, Kenya, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Spain, Sri Lanka and Turkey. Contrary to recent claims, considerable heterogeneity persists regarding geopolitical imaginations of terrorism, while US-coined discourses are only infrequently adapted. However, there is still recognisable functionalist convergence as the states under analysis utilise their control of the education system in their internal struggles, mainly by portraying their opponents as evil, by ascribing a positive identity to themselves, and by calling for support by their citizens (including restrictions of human rights and democracy).     

Lincoln as Commander-in-Chief

Abstract

Abraham Lincoln's presidency was defined and dominated by war, yet Lincoln himself had very little direct experience with warfare; nor had the American presidency been truly tested by war when he took office. Lincoln had to negotiate very difficult political and constitutional terrain as he waged the Civil War: issues of executive authority, constitutional powers and their limitations, and the nature of civil liberties during war constantly bedeviled him. His guiding principle in all these matters, and the greatest lesson we can learn from him today, was his flexibility and his pragmatism.     

A new view of some familiar Indian rainfalls

PHYSICAL

The Geology of East Fife. By I. H. Forsyth and J. I. Chisholm, etc. 25 × 16, ×+284 pp. 31 figures, 8 plates, 10 tables, references, 2 appendices and index. H.M. Stationery Office, 1977. £10.00.

Geology and Scenery in Scotland. By J. B. Whittow. 20×13, 362 pp. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, 1977. £1.95.

HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY

Domesday: England. By H. C. Darby. 24 × 16, xiv+416 pp., frontispiece, 111 figures, 74 appendices, index. Cambridge University Press, 1977. £20.

Scottish Place Names. By W. F. H. Nicolaisen. 22 × 14½, xxviii+210 pp., 21 maps, bibliography. Batsford, London, 1976. £4.95.

Scottish Country Life. By Alexander Fenton. 22½× 15, 255 pp., illustrations, bibliography, index. John Donald, Edinburgh, 1976. £6.50.

The Development of the Irish Town. Ed. R. A. Butlin. 22½×14, 144 pp. Croom Helm, London, 1977. £6.95.

HUMAN GEOGRAPHY

Patterns in Human Geography. By D. M. Smith. 20 × 13, 373 pp., numerous figures, index. Penguin, Harmondsworth, 1977. £2.00 (paper).

Human Geography: A Welfare Approach. By D. M. Smith. 23½ × 15½, 402 pp., numerous figures, bibliography. Edward Arnold, London, 1977. £4.50 (paper).

Geography, Culture and Habitat: Selected Essays (1925‐1975) of E. G. Bowen. Selected and introduced by Harold Carter and Wayne K. D. Davies. 22½× 14½, xxxiii and 275 pp. Gomer Press, 1976. £6.00.

ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

Agrarian Change in the Scottish Highlands. By J. Bryden and G. Houston. Glasgow Social and Economic Reserach Studies 4. 24 × 16, 152 pp., maps, bibliography, index. Martin Robertson, HIDB, London, 1976. £7.50.

The Arctic Circle. Ed. William C. Wonders. 23×15, 143 pp., 14 maps, references. Longman/Don Mills, Ontario, 1976. $6.95, paper $3.95.

Argyll: The Enduring Heartlands. By Marion Campbell, with a Foreword by the Duke of Argyll. 22 × 14, 267 pp., 20 illustrations, bibliography, index. Turnstone Press, London, 1977. £4.95.

TECHNIQUES

Maps and Statistics. By Peter Lewis. 24×16, 318 pp., 161 figures, Exercise answers, bibliography, index. Methuen, Andover, 1977. £9.50, paper £5.95.

EDUCATIONAL

Geography and the Integrated Curriculum. Edited by Michael Williams. 21 X14, xiii+227 pp. Heineman Educational Books, 1976. £2‐25 (paper).

Evaluating the Geography Curriculum. By W. E. Marsden. 22×13, 312 pp. Oliver and Boyd, 1976. £3.50 (paper).

Man and his World. By W. G. Moore. 24½ × 19, 141 pp. Hulton, Amersham, 1976. £1.95.

Landforms and Landscapes. By F. C. Evans. 18 × 25, 65 pp. Oliver &; Boyd, Edinburgh, 1975. £1.10.     

论鄂豫皖根据地对抗日战争胜利的历史贡献

鄂豫皖根据地创立于土地革命战争时期,为全国第二大革命根据地。由该根据地诞生的红军部队,历经浴火斗争,在抗日战争爆发后分别改编为八路军和新四军主力部队,成为中共领导的重要抗日武装力量。根据地重视干部培养和人才集聚,为抗日斗争和日后中共建政,培养了大批干部人才。鄂豫皖根据地虽然长期孤悬敌后,但是在中共组织的坚强领导下,抗日武装队伍不断壮大,游击战争始终得以坚持,有力打击和牵制了敌伪顽力量,根据地成为中共抗日武装东进南下的桥头堡,为抗日战争的最终胜利以及中共"绾毂中原"在全国取得胜利,发挥了重要的战略作用。