海湾战争与土耳其中东外交政策评析

20世纪40年代以来土耳其奉行亲西方,尤其是亲美的一边倒外交政策,土耳其中东外交服务于其西方战略,长期以中立和不介入为主要特征。20世纪90年代世界政治格局的变化使得土耳其必须重新调整其中东外交政策,海湾战争为土耳其重新实践其外交政策提供了机遇,土耳其在中东开始采取积极、主动的新型外交政策。海湾战争成为土耳其中东外交的分水岭。海湾战争中,土耳其积极介入中东事务的政策与土耳其亲西方的外交政策恰好吻合;伊拉克战争则表明土耳其中东外交与其亲西方外交之间的不协调性。     

论阿玛尔纳时代埃及与米坦尼的关系

阿玛尔纳时代早期,埃及和米坦尼都积极发展两国关系,将两国友好关系推到顶峰.阿玛尔纳时代后期,埃及面对中东错综复杂的局势,做出了疏远米坦尼的外交决策,而米坦尼面对赫梯的威胁,力图保持与埃及的友好关系,为此进行了不懈的努力.埃及与米坦尼关系的恶化对中东政治格局产生了深远影响.     

九十年代中东地缘政治的因素与机制探讨

中东是个独特的政治地理区域,90年代以来正在走向多极化。影响中东地缘政治的因素丰富多样,本文对其中的地理位置、国土、自然资源、民族、宗教、地区霸权等最重要的因素进行了简要的论述。并在提出国家影响力、地缘政治影响力概念的基础上,设计了简明的公式,对中东地缘政治稳定度作了定量探讨,文间还结合当前中东政局中的重大问题和主要特征进行了分析。     

Cross‐border cooperation: A major element in regional policy in East Central Europe

Borders in East Central Europe have become much more permeable over the past ten years as formalities have been simplified and many new crossing points have opened. At the same time cooperation in border regions has increased, thanks mainly to resourcing through EU ‘Inrerreg’ programmes, to include a range of business, cultural and conservation interests. In many cases these arrangements have been formalised through Euroregions which have become an indicator of good international relations. The paper reviews these trends with reference to examples and pays particular attention to environmental projects and the joint planning initiatives being undertaken in a number of the Euroregions. At a time when regional policy has been generally weak, cross‐border cooperation has contributed significantly to cohesion and it is also a good indicator of stability in the region. However, the impact has been greater in the north than in the Balkans and the first round of EU eastern enlargement will have implications for cooperation across the new external borders.     

A Blueprint for Successful Peacekeeping? The Italians in Beirut (Lebanon), 1982–1984

On 6 June 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to fight the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Between August 1982 and February 1984, the US, France, Britain and Italy deployed a Multinational Force (MNF) to Beirut. Its task was to act as an interposition force to bolster the government and to bring peace to the people. The mission is often forgotten or merely remembered in context with the bombing of US Marines’ barracks. However, an analysis of the Italian contingent shows that the MNF was not doomed to fail and could accomplish its task when operational and diplomatic efforts were coordinated. The Italian commander in Beirut, General Franco Angioni, followed a successful approach that sustained neutrality, respectful behaviour and minimal force, which resulted in a qualified success of the Italian efforts.     

试析冷战在中东的分期和特点

中东在美苏冷战中具有重要意义。中东的冷战可划为四个阶段:美国开始取代英法在中东的势力,苏联实现突破的努力失败;阿拉伯民族主义进入高潮,英法基本退出中东,美苏展开激烈角逐;英国彻底退出中东,苏联影响进一步增长,中东呈现不战不和局面;美国促成中东和平进程,苏联在阿拉伯世界的影响衰落。冷战在中东的主要特点如下:中东是除东欧外非两大阵营国家唯一与超级大国苏联有陆地接壤的地区,是美国遏制战略的前沿阵地;中东是冷战的发源地之一;中东成为美苏激烈争夺的地区,双方各有自己的战略;中东的局部战争和地区冲突延绵不断,并与冷战相互交织,而后者对阿拉伯世界的影响有限;冷战与中东起伏不定的民族主义相互影响;中东在冷战中诞生了高度敌视西方的极端伊斯兰主义。     

China's Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and the Middle East

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims at connecting the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa through a combination of infrastructure projects and soft‐power programs. All of the six land bridges and maritime routes under the BRI extend westward, mostly passing through Central Asia and the Middle East on land or by sea. Cooperation with countries in these regions will, according to China's design, meet its domestic energy needs, and grow the country's economy. China recognizes, however, that in Central Asia and the Middle East, the risks posed by what it calls the “Three Evils” — terrorism, extremism, and separatism can impact the success of the BRI. They can also impact stability in its own adjacent areas, including Xinjiang. Therefore, in concert with the BRI, China is also identifying and deploying bilateral and multilateral diplomatic mechanisms aimed at security coordination with BRI countries in these two volatile regions. This article provides an overview of BRI developments in the two regions and examines some of the diplomatic mechanisms China is using to coordinate security and reduce risks.     

Review Article: Professional,Political, and Mercenary Soldiers

Since the late 1970s, most scholarship on the origins of the Zionist–Palestinian conflict has emphasised the actions and agency of the Palestinian Arabs and Zionists, with a focus on the period before 1914. It is argued in this article, however, that the expectation of and commitment to political independence on both sides, a defining feature of the conflict, did not emerge until 1918, and that the actions of the British government in Palestine during the final year of the First World War drove this fundamental shift. Following Britain's occupation of southern Palestine in December 1917, the British administration undertook an extensive propaganda operation in the country to advertise their backing for Arab nationalism and Zionism. This campaign was part of the British government's wider endeavour to mobilise support for the Allied war effort and British imperial expansion in the Middle East in the new age of nationality. It led, the article contends, to a war for national sovereignty over Palestine between two statist nationalist movements. Rather than emphasise British colonial agency at the expense of that of the Palestinian Arabs and Zionists, the article argues that this development derived from a complex interaction between the three parties within the context of radical changes in international politics.     

Birds in the medieval culture and economy of the East Slavs in the 10–13th centuries AD

The paper is devoted to a re-examination of the bird remains from the numerous East Slavic settlements (10–13th centuries AD). Species diversity suggests that medieval people in the Eastern Europe used birds for food, falconry, in ritual and, possibly, for aviary specimens and pets. Furthermore, bird feathers were used for preparing arrows. The most popular bird of prey was goshawk. Primary game birds were ducks, geese, swans, common crane and corvids along with black grouse and capercaillie in forest zones. The archaeological data present evidence for the use of wild birds (e.g., hooded crow) in funeral ceremonies for the first time. The majority of the identified birds have not changed their distribution, but in recent times some of these taxa have become rarer. Red-breasted goose is now extant in the area but its remains were found in the medieval layers, although this species could have been an occasional visitor in the Ukraine. Archaeological data and historical sources prove that white stork has lived in the territory of Ukraine since the Middle Ages or even earlier. The most common domestic poultry for the East Slavs was chicken. Domestic ducks and geese were much rarer. Historical documents were also consulted in this study and these also contribute to our understanding of the role of birds in the life of the East Slavs.     

Re-evaluating the Yom Kippur ‘Intelligence Failure’: The Cultural Lens in Crisis

Henry Kissinger famously explained the ‘intelligence failure’ of Yom Kippur in cultural terms, asserting that Western analysts were unable to understand Arab rationality in ‘starting an unwinnable war to restore self-respect.’ This article fundamentally challenges this conventional understanding of the 1973 surprise attack. Drawing on recently declassified material and interviews with veteran diplomats and intelligence professionals it will show that both the British and American intelligence communities had an excellent sense of Egyptian President Sadat's intentions in waging war against Israel. Rather the evidence suggests that misconceptions about Egyptian military capability were more important. These misconceptions derived from particular ideas about Arab culture and Soviet–Egyptian relations following the expulsion of Soviet advisors in 1972. The article thereby illuminates wider questions about how we define ‘failure’ in intelligence and the role of cultural ideas in international history.     

中东过度城市化与社会稳定

城市化是世界各国经济社会发展的必由之路,但二战后中东国家的城市化发展模式与西方发达国家城市化发展的历史经验大不相同,实行的是以西方城市化为参照目标的赶超战略,导致严重的过度城市化现象。中东过度城市化的畸形发展引发一系列城市化问题,并对中东地区的社会稳定构成重要影响,体现在过度城市化孕育着不稳定的社会心理;过度城市化危及社会秩序稳定;过度城市化对城市社会结构产生影响,扩大底层社会的基础。     

亚洲溢价--中日能源的共同困境

由于中东石油输出国对同一时间出口到不同地区的同种原油采用不同的计价公式,使亚洲原油进口价格高于欧美等国的进口价格,形成亚洲溢价。进入21世纪以来,亚洲溢价程度加深,范围扩展。本文在介绍亚洲溢价基础上着重分析了亚洲溢价对中日两国的不利影响以及亚洲溢价的产生原因,提出通过培育亚洲原油定价中心、中日联合采购等途径削减亚洲溢价,能维护亚洲能源进口国的利益。