国际侨汇对收款国宏观经济安全的影响分析

论文在简要阐述了国际侨汇发展概况的基础上,着重围绕侨汇对宏观经济稳定、侨汇对国家信用评级的影响、侨汇对宏观经济安全的潜在威胁等方面,论述国际侨汇对收款国宏观经济安全的影响。认为侨汇具有保护和加强国家宏观经济安全的作用,主要表现为:缓解收款国的外汇约束、提升国家信用;构成其GDP的重要部分,增强其国家经济总体实力;在收款国遇到经济危机、自然灾害以及军事冲突时,扮演经济安全"保险者"的角色,等等。同时,侨汇大量流入也可能会给相关国家的经济安全带来潜在的威胁。因此,在关注侨汇积极作用的同时,还应加大对其负面影响的研究,以积极防范由侨汇流动带来的潜在安全威胁。     

国际侨汇对移民来源国经济发展的影响——国外学术观点综述

论文从侨汇对贫困和收入分配的影响、侨汇对消费和投资的影响、侨汇的危机救助作用和对经济增长的影响、侨汇对公共投资和官方援助的影响、侨汇的＂道德风险＂和侨汇对人才流失的影响、侨汇对荷兰病和国际贸易的影响等六个方面,对国外的一些学术观点进行了分析阐述,认为前期的研究为本领域的研究提供了非常有价值的开拓性成果和坚实基础,但是目前国际侨汇的研究多集中于国别和微观的领域,在宏观综合分析、比较分析和理论探索方面还比较欠缺,诸多领域的研究工作还需要继续挖掘和探索,不少研究结论存在较大争议,因此还有许多问题亟需做进一步研究。     

抗战时期国民政府的侨汇管控及其成效

本文以美国斯坦福大学胡佛研究院档案馆藏蒋介石日记、台湾"国史馆"藏蒋介石档案和外交部档案、广东省档案馆藏财政厅档案、中国第二历史档案馆和重庆档案馆编四联总处史料集、民国报刊杂志等原始史料为依据,考察了国民政府管控侨汇的机构、政策、流向变迁历程及其成效。认为战时侨汇是外汇的重要组成部分,是国家金融抗战和军事国防联动布局的关键物资,国民政府对侨汇管控有其金融抗战和国防战略部署的双重需要。抗战时期国民政府的侨汇管控存在着复杂的政策调整和隶属机构的变迁,这些措施增加了海外侨汇流入祖国。四联总处、财政部、中国银行和中央银行对战时侨汇管控做出重要贡献。文中1940—1945年度中国银行经收美元和英镑外币侨汇数额的统计图,填补了战时侨汇本币和外币统计数据欠缺的空白。     

1946-49年广东侨汇逃避问题

194 6- 194 9年间 ,国民党政府为内战需要 ,加紧控制侨汇业。但是由于国统区经济恶化、通货膨胀剧烈 ,国民党政府又大肆搜刮人民财富 ,采用不合理的外汇汇率政策 ,因此引发大规模广东省侨汇逃避现象。海外华侨汇往广东的侨汇纷纷通过外商银行、民营侨批局、钱庄、银号等机构流入黑市 ,使国民党政府外汇收入大量流失 ,财政困境更无法解脱。     

抗战前后四邑侨乡侨汇运营体系的转变——对一起侨汇纠纷的分析

论文通过对一起侨汇纠纷的分析,揭示了从大萧条到战后初期四邑侨乡侨汇运营体系的重大转变和战后初期侨汇运营实态。大萧条使中国从货币银本位进入纸币时代,此后,侨汇汇兑经常与通货膨胀联系在一起。战时的特殊环境,使民间侨汇运营体系进一步衰落和中断,官方银行主导和垄断了侨汇运营。官方银行为主的侨汇运营体系不仅强化了官方银行对民间金融的控制,也加强了乡村自治机构的控制能力。战后官方银行运营能力的不足及其繁琐的领款手续,使侨汇兑换令人望而生畏,这和通胀压力一起催生了广阔的侨汇兑换的"中间人"市场,而国家控制能力的强化使"中间人"随时可能成为侨汇的"冒领者"。     

新中国侨汇工作的历史考察(1949-1966年)

1949— 1 966年间 ,侨汇在我国政治、经济生活中占有十分重要的地位。这一时期 ,侨汇既是国内近千万侨眷主要或次要的生活来源 ,也是国外广大华侨与祖国联系的一个重要桥梁 ,又是国家社会主义建设中所需外汇资金的主要来源。因此 ,在“文革”前 ,争取侨汇工作不仅被认为是我国侨务工作的一项重要内容 ,而且侨汇工作还对我国侨务政策的演变产生了不容轻视的影响。     

波动与稳定:1957～1977年的中国侨汇政策

华侨汇款是中国外汇储备的重要来源和国内广大归侨侨眷生产生活的重要保障,其管理政策也长期是国家任务政策的重要内容。但1957年"大跃进"开始后侨汇却一度受到"左"的社会运动影响而不断减少。为提升侨汇收入,国家不仅一再重申侨汇的重要性,而且还在增加侨汇物资供应、避免侨汇遭受侵犯、提高侨批业经营积极性等方面制定     

改革开放以来侨汇收入对中国经济发展的影响及启示

论文采用1982-2015年时间序列数据,通过实证分析方法梳理了改革开放以来中国侨汇收入的基本情况,重点就中国侨汇收入对经济发展的影响进行了研究。结果显示,改革开放以来侨汇收入对中国经济增长具有长期稳定明显促进作用,同时也能在短期内较小程度地即时影响经济增长;改革开放以来,侨汇收入与中国经济增长表现为单向因果关系。即侨汇收入虽能显著推动经济增长,但经济发展对移民汇款变化没有明显影响;侨汇收入对经济发展的作用存在时间滞后效应。论文还在建立并探索国家侨汇收入统计体系、着力推动和改进侨汇政策优化、加强对侨汇资源的管理和引导等方面提出了有关建议,以期更好地发挥侨汇资源促进经济增长的重要作用。     

1949-1956年上海侨汇管理政策浅析

新中国成立初期,上海遵照国家关于“便利侨汇、服务侨胞”的八字方针,出台并实施了多项侨汇管理措施:指定银行专门吸纳侨汇,将大部分侨汇划归银行经营;合理调整人民币汇率,实行侨汇优待牌价;做好华侨回国观光团的接待工作,以吸引大额侨资落户上海。其间,上海侨汇管理政策的执行曾一度出现偏差,但在中央相关政策的指导下,上海有关部门及时调整政策,积极争取和服务华侨回国投资。上海侨汇管理工作取得了积极成效,尤其是吸引了大量的投资性侨汇。上海侨汇管理政策是国家侨务政策和金融政策的重要组成部分,在一定程度上促进了新中国侨汇业和金融业的发展。     

1949-1956年上海侨汇管理政策浅析

新中国成立初期,上海遵照国家关于"便利侨汇、服务侨胞"的八字方针,出台并实施了多项侨汇管理措施:指定银行专门吸纳侨汇,将大部分侨汇划归银行经营;合理调整人民币汇率,实行侨汇优待牌价;做好华侨回国观光团的接待工作,以吸引大额侨资落户上海.其间,上海侨汇管理政策的执行曾一度出现偏差,但在中央相关政策的指导下,上海有关部门及时调整政策,积极争取和服务华侨回国投资.上海侨汇管理工作取得了积极成效,尤其是吸引了大量的投资性侨汇.上海侨汇管理政策是国家侨务政策和金融政策的重要组成部分,在一定程度上促进了新中国侨汇业和金融业的发展.     

Non-crisis economies must make adjustments too. World Economy survey

This article presents ?The World Economy in 1999,? a report prepared by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA). It was noted in the report that 39 developing countries had gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth exceeding 3% in 1996, compared to just 13 countries in 1999. This indicates that 32 developing countries would suffer a decline in GDP per capita by the year 2000 as compared to 14 in 1996. In addition, slow growth has been recorded at just 2% in 1998 and 1999, with only continued growth in North America and Europe keeping the world economy going. Continued slow growth was expected for the year 2000. In terms of income, commodity prices have fallen in developing countries. Net transfer of financial resources from developing countries was almost $60 billion in 1998, compared to positive flows of about $35 billion in the first half of the 1990s. Overall, the brunt of world economic slow-down had been borne by the developing and transition economies. Thus, according to Mr. Nitin Desai, it is important that there is a coordinated policy response to crisis situations, rather than expecting the crisis economies to undertake the bulk of adjustment actions. There are advantages in coordination, which should include developing countries and the Group of Seven.     

Programme of Action: raising resources

The International Conference on Population Development (ICPD) Program of Action comprehensively covers a wide range of demographic and social issues by setting goals to be achieved over a period of 20 years. Since its initial implementation, population issues have been fundamentally linked with the countries' prospects for sustainable development. In the ICPD+5 review it was concluded that countries are committed to the Cairo agenda and to the idea that population and development go hand in hand. This commitment involves spending on population and related programs, which totals $17 billion by the year 2000 and $22 billion by 2015. Funding would come from countries (0.7% of gross domestic product to overall development assistance and 4% to population activities). However, the trend shows that countries have not achieved these targets and are decreasing rather than increasing spending on population issues, particularly from the developed countries. Findings of a survey indicated that the lack of resources is the greatest obstacle in attaining desired goals of developing countries. In addition, serious economic stagnation and an unfavorable international economic environment makes it difficult for many developing countries to resolve the problem of lack of resources, and technical capabilities are badly needed to achieve the goals of the ICPD.     

MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES

This paper examines patterns of remittances among migrants from Guizhou province of China. Our research is motivated by three lines of theoretical arguments, namely the new economics of migration, a translocal perspective linking remittances and development, and the culture of remittances. Taking individual, household, and village-level characteristics into account, we estimated multilevel logistic models of the decision to remit and multilevel models of the amount of remittances. Our results show that migrant remittance behaviour is responsive to family needs as well as household economic position in the village. Migrants who come from entrepreneurial households are more likely to remit a large amount than other types of households. We find some evidence of ‘culture of remittances’ in these villages. Consistent with our expectations, migrants who are from villages with higher amounts of average remittances are likely to remit a larger amount than otherwise.     

海外印度移民及印度政府的侨务政策

作为人口大国之一 ,印度与中国一样 ,有着庞大的海外移民群体及其后裔。目前 ,海外印度人已超过二千万人 ,分布在 1 1 0个国家和地区。上世纪 90年代以来 ,随着海外印度人对所在国和印度影响的增强 ,海外印度人在印度及海外都引起了比以前更多的关注。印度政府采取了一系列措施 ,以吸引更多的海外印度人投身印度国内的经济建设 ,为印度的发展作贡献。本文概述海外印度移民的基本情况 ,分析海外印度人与印度的联系及对印度的影响以及印度政府对海外移民的政策 ,希望从中能得到某些启示 ,从而对中国的侨务政策提供某些参考和借鉴。     

Going West and Going Out: discourses,migrants, and models in Chinese development

Abstract

In 1999 China announced the launching of the Open up the West campaign, sometimes called “Going West,” to help western China finally catch up to the much wealthier eastern, coastal areas after several decades of lagging behind. The same year, China also announced a “Going Out” strategy to encourage Chinese investment abroad. The 15 years since then have witnessed dramatic Chinese government investment in various development activities in western regions of China, as well as around the world. Though rarely considered together, we argue that there are significant parallels in development discourse, the centrality of physical infrastructure, the characteristics of Chinese labor migration and the nature of migrant-local relations, and the application of “models from elsewhere” in Going West and Going Out. Considering these parallels can help shed light on Chinese development discourse and practice, as China becomes increasingly important in the field of development once dominated by Western countries. Finally, we also consider direct connections and convergences between the two strategies in China’s neighboring countries of Asia and in the One Belt One Road initiative.     

Population. The new challenge: translating Cairo success into meaningful activities

The newly named Commission on Population and Development, at its 1995 session in New York, stated it should have the primary responsibility for reviewing the implementation of the Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo in September 1994. The Population Commission was renamed the Commission on Population and Development by the General Assembly. In debate, some countries reviewed their national experiences in population matters, stressing how the Program of Action would influence their policies. At mid-1994, world population stood at 5.63 billion persons, a report on world population trends and policies revealed. During the preceding 12 months, population had grown by 86 million and was expected to grow by an additional 87 million during the next 12 months. While China's representative described a near-crisis situation marked by a net increase in population of 14 million per year in her country, the representative of the Russian Federation expressed concern over the decrease in Russia's population. Between 1990 and 1994, world population had grown at 1.57% per annum. UN medium-fertility-variant projections indicated that the population growth rate would continue declining to 1.33% per annum between 2000 and 2010; 1.15% in 2010-2020; 0.95% in 2020-2030; 0.72% in 2030-2040; and 0.54% in 2040-2050. Consequently, the world population was projected to reach 7.5 billion by 2015 and 9.8 billion by 2050. Assistance for population programs had increased from $220 million in 1988 to $305 million in 1992, the bulk of which came from UNFPA. Family planning, integrated with reproductive health and carried out through a primary health care system, continued to receive the bulk of multilateral resources. Projects to improve the status of women, such as education for girls, leadership training, literacy programs, and projects designed to increase the income of women and their families were being supported by multilateral agencies. An update on global contraceptive requirements from 1994 to 2005 estimated that the total cost of contraceptive commodities would be $7.7 billion.     

The Clean Energy Dilemma in Asia: Is There a Way Out?

A prominent American geographer and specialist on energy and environmental policies in developing countries assesses the challenge to sustainable development posed by Asia's rapid economic growth and the concurrent need to reduce the environmental impacts of energy production and use. A particular focus is on China and India, as rapidly growing energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters, and on Russia as a potentially important supplier of natural gas and liquid alternatives to coal use. The author suggests some elements of a strategy to resolve the dilemma of reducing global environmental impacts without penalizing Asia's economic development, although a significant energy transition over the next several decades appears quite difficult.     

China's oil diplomacy in Africa

Within the next five years, Chinese trade with Africa is predicted to reach $100 billion per year. Much of this springs from China's growing expansion into Africa's oil markets. It is argued that Chinese oil diplomacy in Africa has two main goals: in the short-term to secure oil supplies to help feed growing domestic demand back in China; and in the long-term, to position China as a global player in the international oil market. Yet at the same time, this oil safari is being accompanied by an explicit stance that emphasizes state sovereignty and 'non-interference' in domestic affairs and is wholly disinterested in transparency or human rights. Consequently, Beijing has increasingly been accused of turning a blind eye to autocracy and corruption. China is also threatening to undercut efforts by the African Union and its western partners to make government and business more accountable. While China is providing investment where little was previously forthcoming, concerns about Beijing's engagement with Africa's oil industries need to be resolved, not least by African leaders themselves.