Demographic Modeling of the Geography of Migration and Population: A Multiregional Perspective

This article focuses on the development and evolution of migration and population redistribution modeling within the spatial context of multiregional demography. It begins in 1965, when the state-of-the-art consisted largely of ideas and techniques imported from other disciplines (regression analysis, gravity models, Markov chains, and matrix cohort-survival population projection models) and then continues on to tell the story of multiregional demography, its evolution and emergence as a fully developed paradigm for studying the spatial dynamics of migration and population redistribution and, more recently, its approach for estimating the necessary migration input measures from inadequate data.     

BP神经网络在我国入境旅游人数预测中的应用

入境旅游人数的预测结果对于旅游管理部门和政府部门有着重要的参考意义,寻求科学合理的预测模型是保障预测结果准确可靠的关键。针对这一问题,作者利用人工神经网络理论建立了BP（Back．Propagation）网络预测模型,并与logistic模型、指数平滑模型、自回归模型的预测结果进行比较,结果表明应用BP神经网络对入境旅游人数进行预测精度更高、效果更好。     

Logistic Population Growth in the World's Largest Cities

This article demonstrates that recent population growth in the world's largest cities has conformed to the general parameters of the logistic process. Using data recently provided by the United Nations, logistic population growth for 485 million-person cities is analyzed at 5-year intervals during 1950–2010, with the UN projections for 2015 adopted as upper limits. A series of ordinary least-squares regression models of increasing complexity are estimated on the pooled data. In one class of models, the logarithms of population proportions are specified to be linear in time, which is the standard approach, but in a second class of models those proportions are specified as being quadratic. The most complex models control logistic growth estimates for (i) city-specific effects (e.g., initial population), (ii) nation-specific effects (e.g., economic development, age distribution of population), and (iii) global coordinates (for unobserved effects). Moreover, the results are segregated according to each city's membership in four different growth clubs, which was an important finding of previous research.     

The Territorial Expansion of American Cities and their Population Growth

The significance of territorial expansion of American cities in the growth of their population from one census to another is analyzed. The number of cities making annexations during intercensal periods has been steadily increasing since World War II. The trend is particularly pronounced in the South and West because of intensive industrialization and, in the case of the West, in-migration. In the North, annexation is often blocked by the presence of incorporated places in the urban fringe surrounding the central city. Some Northern cities have in fact lost population in the 1950–1960 period despite an expansion of their city limits.     

青海人口增长与生态资源关系研究

本文以个体生活资源基本需求为计算单位,探讨青海生态总资源的人口承载力,预测青海人口发展与生态资源的关系。根据本文给出的计算方式,青海耕地资源与人口数量关系将在5年后基本饱和,牧草地资源与牧业人口关系8年后达到饱和,森林资源与人口关系缺口较大,水资源与人口关系富足有余,但工业污水排放问题突出。面对这一现实,青海要进一步推行控制人口增长的计划生育政策;加大保持草场生态平衡的意识和力度;保护好现有森林,充分利用林业用地资源;保护好水资源。     

Estimation Bias in Spatial Models with Strongly Connected Weight Matrices

This article shows that, for both spatial lag and spatial error models with strongly connected weight matrices, maximum likelihood estimates of the spatial dependence parameter are necessarily biased downward . In addition, this bias is shown to be present in general Moran tests of spatial dependency. Thus, positive dependencies may often fail to be detected when weight matrices are strongly connected. The analysis begins with a detailed examination of downward bias for the extreme case of maximally connected weight matrices. Results for this case are then extended by continuity to a broader range of (appropriately defined) strongly connected matrices. Finally, a simulated numerical example is presented to illustrate some of the practical consequences of these biases.     

中世纪西欧庄园人口变动与商业复兴基础的形成

中世纪西欧商业复兴产生的社会基础在于庄园的内部发展和变动。庄园缓慢的进步导致了人口的增长,人口增长的压力造成了庄园内部的变动。开拓荒地和新庄园的建立,增加了西欧的产品数量,同时也造成了人口的流动,使得原来封闭的庄园出现了松动,为商业复兴提供了物质和人力基础;商人阶层的出现并不是突兀的,也不是从一开始就作为庄园的对立面出现的。他们继承了早期商业交往的形式,商品交往仍然以补充庄园之不足为目的,而且他们在社会中没有地位,但是他们确确实实成了一个新的阶层,并成为职业性商人,为成熟的城市商人的出现蓄积了基础。     

明代山西藩府的人口增长与数量统计

山西地区不仅是明朝初年分封宗室相对集中的区域,而且人口增长速度惊人,最迟到嘉靖、隆庆年间,山西藩府已发展成为明朝境内数量最为庞大的宗室人口集团之一。作为寄生性的特权集团,明朝藩府人口的估算须区分为狭义与广义两种,《玉牒》所记的宗室人口数量应该视为户数,而不是口数。时至明末,狭义的山西藩府人口数已超过20万。     

Population Density,Economic Growth and Societies in Transition: Boserup Reconsidered in a Kenyan Case-study

In examining the relationship between population growth and income growth, this article first looks at the Malthusian, transition and revisionist positions. The first is not borne out by historical experience, and the latter two do not explain why greater affluence generally leads to lower rates of population growth. It is argued here that the crucial population characteristic is density. Rising densities from a low base facilitate more productive agriculture and greater specialization and exchange within a society, as Boserup (1965) pointed out. This leads to increased wealth but also to higher costs for education and land. This provides a link to Caldwell's (1976) explanation of changing attitudes to family size: at low densities in simple societies benefits from children exceed costs, while at higher densities in complex societies costs exceed benefits. The changes in societies and economies are illustrated by a Kenyan case study. Kenya has experienced particularly rapid population growth this century, and high economic growth; it is now experiencing the transition to lower birth rates.     

Forecasting Change in Industry and the Economy with Restricted Resources

Abstract

The objective of this model study is to show how cost-conscious managers in the petroleum refining, electric power and basic chemical industries will respond to policy decisions limiting or not limiting the discharge of any major water or air pollutant and the availability of petroleum fuels for use in electric power generation. This is accomplished by an integrated model of the above industries with economic supply functions for crude oil natural gas and coal and with economic demand functions for important energy end-products. The results of this study show the critical importance of regulating fuel use in electric power generation to achieve within the United States in 1985 both energy goals of independence at acceptable price and environmental goals of clean air and clean water at minimum costs. Prohibition of the use of petroleum fuel in new electric power generating plants is practically mandatory according to the model studies to substitute coal for clean fuels in electricity generation. This prohibition minimize both the market price for natural gas and the capital investments in new plants and equipment. It maximizes the economic conservation of energy by end product consumers and the attainment of clean water and relatively clean air. Unfortunately, greater sulfur dioxide emission must be tolerated, although this may be reduced by 83% if environmental standards with air emission controls are met.     

From Fighting Underpopulation to Curbing Population Growth: Tracing Colonial Power in German Development Interventions in Tanzania

This paper investigates how colonial power is rearticulated in policy and practice of German development cooperation in Tanzania. Drawing on archives and interviews, it analyses the emergence of interventions with regard to population control and reproductive health during Germany's colonisation of ‘German East Africa’ and compares these interventions to present-day German development assistance in Tanzania. While German policies during colonial rule addressed ‘underpopulation’ and contemporary German development aid stresses population growth to be the problem, this paper finds that racialised, gendered discourses are interconnected with the political economy of population control in both periods. It highlights that colonial power in development cooperation can only be fully comprehended by tracing the continuity of colonial discourses to material practices as well as economic interests of the Global North, and argues that critique of population politics should address population control in general – whether anti- or pro-natalist – as imbued with racism and serving the interests of capital. Such a perspective might allow us to be sensitive to possible future developments in population and reproductive health policy towards the Global South, in which antinatalist (regarding marginalised people) and pronatalist (regarding privileged people) policies run concurrently, as is the case in countries of the Global North today.     

Poverty Reduction with Growth and Redistribution

In the late 1990s the bilateral and multilateral development agencies placed increasing emphasis on poverty reduction in developing countries. This led to the establishment by the United Nations of the ‘International Development Targets’ for poverty reduction. The target of poverty reduction might be achieved through faster economic growth alone, through redistribution, or through a combination of the two. This article presents an analytical framework to assess the effectiveness of growth and redistribution for poverty reduction. It concludes that redistribution, either of current income or the growth increment of income, is more effective in reducing poverty for a majority of countries than growth alone.     

Simulating Sources of Uncertainty in Policy Forecasting with a Large-Scale Regional Econometric Model

Long-term forecasts may be helpful in establishing the general framework for a region's policy agenda, and a well-structured economic model offers an opportunity to identify major policy instruments affecting a region's long-term growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of long-term forecasts should serve to caution policymakers in interpreting and acting upon such information. To offer perspective on this aspect of forecasts, simulations of the Pittsburgh economy are performed to the year 1995 using a large-scale regional econometric model. The forecasts are based on alternative assumptions concerning the performance of the national economy and the objective conditions characterizing key industries in the region. In this way, the model is used to identify and quantify several major sources of uncertainty in long-term regional forecasts.     

Estimation of Age,Growth and Fishing Season of a Palaeolithic Population of Grayling (Thymallus thymallus) Using Scale Analysis

The fish remains sampled from archaeological sites are generally the result of human food refuse; therefore, the study of retrieved fish scales may provide reliable information on the season of capture and on paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes. Among Western European freshwater fishes, the grayling, Thymallus thymallus ¸ has the most easily recognizable scales and is a commonly recovered species from Palaeolithic contexts. This study, therefore, is based on the growth pattern analysis of modern and archaeological scales from grayling specimens. The modern specimens were collected monthly in France (n  = 22), Switzerland (n  = 16), Finland (n  = 20) and Sweden (n  = 10). Scale growth patterns were measured using numerical analysis to a high accuracy. The results showed that the archaeological population of grayling is closer to the present Finnish population. Furthermore, the comparison of seasonal growth patterns between current and archaeological European populations demonstrated that graylings were normally captured during the spring at Le Taillis des Coteaux Magdalenian site. This type of approach can be used to understand environmental conditions at a low spatial scale and also to help identify fishing seasons during archaeological periods. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross-section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out-of-sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa.