An Analysis of “Economic Relief” in the Study of Industrial Nodes

The demographic potential and the demographic energy concepts developed by John Q. Stewart, the astronomer, are applied to an analysis of urban interaction in two industrial nodes in the oil-rich Tatar ASSR—the Bugul'ma-Al'met'yevsk node and the Nizhnekamsk node. The isolines of the demographic potential are mapped and compared with other isoline maps of the area showing the density of industrial enterprises (numbers per unit area), population density of urbanized areas, and the density of industrial fixed assets (value per unit area).     

The demographic transition: model and reality

Observed exponential population growth curves are short-term parts of a logistic or S-curve in demography or a product-cycle curve in technology. All human populations have the ability to adjust their rates of growth, a fact recognized by the demographic transition model. The acceleration of world population growth that began after 1650 and became conspicuous after 1850 was largely confined to industrialized countries of European culture until after World War II, when the S-curve passed the inflection point. Many signs indicate that the decline in growth rates may become striking in the 1980s or 1990s. The demographic transition agrees with the logistic curve, and since the ultimate carrying capacity of the Earth is limited, represents an intelligent adaptation. The industrial countries with the longest statistical records, such as Sweden and Finland, evidence early efforts to control fertility. The demographic transition in Sweden lasted from 1815 to 1930 and occurred without government interference. A question for postindustrial western society is whether birth rates will be adjusted to the rising death rates expected as the population ages. Birth and death rates in most formulations of the demographic transition model are typical of Western Europe at the start of the transition process but are much too low for most countries of the world. Japan's demographic transition and that of several other Asian countries have occurred much more rapidly than those of Western Europe and have demonstrated not only that the demographic transition model was applicable but that the time span could be shortened by a factor of about 10 when government policy was substituted for spontaneous development. The Indian experience however shows that the shortening of the transition cannot be imposed from above. The demographic transition is well on its way in most of Asia and Latin America, but Africa and the Muslim countries of Asia have so far done little to restrain their high fertility. It may be concluded that the actual form of the demographic transition is influenced by the point of departure and by how and when it takes place.     

现代史学方法论视角下的人口循环理论

马尔萨斯理论在史学上被广泛应用。马尔萨斯认为人口的增长导致饥饿和社会危机,随之而来的是人口数量的减少、消费增加,随后人口数量又开始增加。人口数量的稳定波动就是人口循环周期。20世纪30年代俄国经济学家雅什诺夫在史学研究中第一次揭示了马尔萨斯人口循环理论。随后W.阿贝尔和M.波斯坦在欧洲史研究方面运用了该理论。20世纪下半叶人口循环理论得到了深入的研究,尤其受到法国年鉴派史学家布罗代尔等人的重视。随后,J.戈尔斯通的人口结构理论为人口循环理论的发展注入了新的活力。近几年以J.卡姆罗斯、P.图尔钦为代表的学者广泛采用数学模拟方法研究人口循环理论,运用这一方法可将人口循环周期分为增长阶段、紧缩阶段和生态危机阶段。此外,运用人口循环理论取得的研究成果有助于对社会和经济发展做出预测。     

Economic Expansion in Central Greece in the Eleventh Century

Abstract

A familiar orthodoxy in Byzantine history is that the empire's economy began to stagnate in the eleventh century. It was a turning-point marked by the development of large estates at the expense of independent peasants and the onset of demographic decline. The demographic trend has been much discussed and generally pessimistic conclusions have been reached. Recently, Lemerle has asserted that the labour force was less plentiful than land. This view has been questioned by Lefort who uses evidence from the archive of Iberon to suggest that population was increasing from the eleventh century. This paper examines the problem in another region, using the Theban tax-register as evidence that agricultural production was intensified in the eleventh century, a clear sign of an increase in population.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia

The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a crucial element of any set of subnational population forecasts. However, subnational forecasts are currently prepared using deterministic models, which fail to properly address the issue of demographic uncertainty. The traditional high, medium, and low variants approach employed by many national statistical offices poses a number of problems. Probabilistic population forecasting models have the potential to overcome many of these problems, but these models have so far been limited to national-level forecasts. This article reports a first attempt to implement a probabilistic approach to subnational population forecasting using a biregional projection framework. The article sets out the forecasting framework, outlines the approach adopted to formulate each of the assumptions, and presents probabilistic forecasts for 2002–2051 for Queensland and the rest of Australia. The forecasts show a two-thirds probability that Queensland's population in 2051 will be between 5.4 and 7.7 million while the same range for the rest of the country is 18.6 and 22.7 million. The forecasts quantify to what extent greater uncertainty exists about the demographic future at the subnational compared with the national scale.     

The Character of Demographic Processes and their Impact on City Growth in Moscow Oblast

The character of demographic processes (population growth, natural increase, migration, age-sex structure) is analyzed for cities of Moscow Oblast both by size classes and by their location in three concentric rings around Moscow. The demographic indicators tend to be particularly negative in cities of the outer zone of Moscow Oblast, mainly one-industry textile towns, in which the high female component of the labor force tends to create an unbalanced demographic situation. Positive demographic processes are most evident in middle-size cities (20,000 to 100,000) in the green belt and suburban zone around Moscow that arose or developed mainly during the Soviet period. They are largely associated with heavy industry and scientific research and development. The analysis suggests the need for greater development of outer-zone towns, which have been lagging in growth, and a need for avoiding the existence of one-industry towns, even as part of a cluster of places.     

Population geography

Population geographers are involved in contemporary policy issues, the production of quality work, and successful communication of research findings. This article reviewed some contributions population geographers have made to the understanding of the geographic impact of aging and the consequences of migration. Geographers have come late to the study of aging and have focused primarily on four main policy issues: 1) fertility decline, 2) housing demography, 3) aged patterns of housing and migration, and 4) government policy. Fertility decline research has highlighted information diffusion theories for fertility decline by researchers such as Zelinsky, Skeldon, and Noin. Changes in attitudes and the removal on constraints has been examined by Woods. Residential mobility studies have been the focus of researchers such as Gober, Moore, and Clark, and Myers. Regional labor markets and the movement of the "baby boom" through the life course have been examined by Miron, Plane and Rogerson, and Clout, who studied the empty nesters and the movement out of suburbia. Private residential housing has increased for the elderly in England and Wales (Hamnett and Mullings), and seasonal migration of Minnesotans results in lost sales revenues and high health and social costs for those too ill to travel (Craig). Geographers have not accomplished a significant thrust into the literature on demographic aging. Contributions to the transnational and international literature have resulted in internal migration studies by Clout on "counterurbanization" in northwestern industrial Europe, while Fielding, Baltensperger, Marchand and Scott, and Jones have examined the continuing rural-urban migration. The loss of urban population has been associated with inner city problems, the impact of labor supply and market demand, and the revenue and health care consequences in the work of Champion, Gibson, and Champion and Illeris, and Craig. Impacts are felt differently by geographic location, and assorted models have been developed for examining interregional migration. Population movement between countries will be a future major policy issue associated with disparities in development. The benefits and disadvantages of immigration have been examined. Refugee movements have been a neglected are of study.     

The Formation of Functional Types of Settlements in the Southern Tayga

The original settlement pattern of farming villages in the Angara-Yenisey river district, which dates from the 17th century, has been greatly altered by the introduction of new economic activities, such as gold mining, lumbering, and transport services. A flow of population from agriculture to industry has been evident in the steady decline of population in farming villages, many of which have been amalgamated with adjoining industrial settlements.     

Restructuring of Sydney's Central Industrial Area: Process and Local Impacts

Since World War II Sydneys central industrial area has lost more than 80 per cent of its manufacturing workforce and no longer the dominant centre of manufacturing in Sydney, is now just one of a number of important centres. Unlike inner cities of the United Kingdom and United States, de-industrialisation in Sydney's central city has not caused a trapped population of displaced workers The first aim of this paper is to outline the restructuring of the central industrial area Two major periods of restructuring can be distinguished Up to the early I9 70s change in the industrial area was driven by intra- metropolitan forces. Since then international forces, and related major infrastructure developments, have substantially accelerated job bss. The second aim is to document the impacts which restructuring has had on the inner city workforce Jobs lost up to the early 1970s did not disadvantage inner city workers because employers as well as workers were moving to the suburbs Since then inner city workers in traditional blue collar occupations have been more strongly affected by de-industrialisation than the city as whole but the numbers involved have been too small to have been of much political interest Social problems in the inner city resulting from restructuring in the industrial area have been masked by strong gentrification.     

Population geography

The author reviews recent changes in population research from a geographical perspective. "The deaths in 1990 of two of France's most distinguished demographers, Alfred Sauvy (1899-1990) and Jean Bourgeois-Pichat (1912-90)...seem an appropriate starting point from which to review progress in population research in the early 1990s....Relative to the lifespans and works of Bourgeois-Pichat and Sauvy, it is possible to discern progress in population studies as a whole and population geography in particular. Advances in technical aspects of measuring mortality, fertility and migration have been most marked, as have attempts to inter-relate these demographic processes. Progress towards explanation of population-related phenomena has been slower. Advances have not been towards building more sophisticated general theories, but towards new and more insightful forms of explanation." The author then summarizes other research literature on fertility, migration, and population subgroups. The geographical scope is worldwide.     

Property and Personal Crime in Istanbul

In recent studies on urban safety, close relationships between physical and demographic characteristics have been found in crime levels in cities. In many countries social, political and economic turmoil have been the main reasons for the increase in urban crime and violence in the last 50 years. In physically deprived environments, the most important factors that increase urban crime are socially isolated communities, economic discrimination and lack of equality in political citizenship rights. In developing countries, it is difficult to obtain data about crime and safety. For this reason, there are very few studies on crime compared to developed countries. In the research in this paper, the similarities and differences of crime ratios against property and persons in Istanbul are compared with those in other countries. For this purpose, the spatial distribution of crimes committed were analysed on a comparative basis between 1998–2002 in 32 districts displaying different characteristics in terms of distance to the centre, use of land, value of land, physical and demographic features. The research revealed that the crime rates in Istanbul against property and persons were in parallel with developed countries. The districts which have mixed use (residential and commercial, residential and industrial), high population increase, high number of households, high density and high land value, property and personal crime levels are high; when date of becoming a district is recent and the size of the district is large, property and personal crime levels are low.     

Demography and the Palaeolithic Archaeological Record

Demographic change has recently re-emerged as a key explanation for socio-cultural changes documented in the prehistoric archaeological record. While the majority of studies of Pleistocene demography have been conducted by geneticists, the archaeological records of the Palaeolithic should not be ignored as a source of data on past population trends. This paper forms both a comprehensive synthesis and the first critical review of current archaeological research into Palaeolithic demography. Within prevailing archaeological frameworks of dual inheritance theory and human behavioural ecology, I review the ways in which demographic change has been used as an explanatory concept within Palaeolithic archaeology. I identify and discuss three main research areas which have benefitted from a demographic approach to socio-cultural change: (1) technological stasis in the Lower Palaeolithic, (2) the Neanderthal-Homo sapiens transition in Europe and (3) the emergence of behavioural modernity. I then address the ways in which palaeodemographic methods have been applied to Palaeolithic datasets, considering both general methodological concerns and the challenges specific to this time period. Finally, I discuss the ability of ethnographic analogy to aid research into Palaeolithic demography.     

The second demographic transition, new household forms and the urban population of France during the 1990s

European household structures and their geography have been transformed in recent decades as a response to the interplay of demographic events and changing lifestyles. The formation of new households generally outstrips the rate of population increase, as more numerous and smaller households result from changing patterns of marriage, child-bearing, divorce and longevity. This paper tests some of the underlying hypotheses of the 'second demographic transition' using data from the most recent (1999) French population census. It provides an analysis of changing national household structures over the last quarter of the twentieth century and highlights the importance of smaller households, with particular emphasis on the rise of living alone. Trends identified in earlier work have intensified during the 1990s. In discussing the geography of new household forms, the paper focuses particularly on the evolution of major central cities and argues for more explicit links between their distinctive population and household structures and wider socio-economic change.     

The greying of resource communities in northern British Columbia: implications for health care delivery in already-underserviced communities

The delivery of 'rural' health care services has long confronted the geographic problems of distance, low user densities, low-order facilities and caregiver shortages. As a result, rural and remote communities across Canada have struggled with health care delivery. For rural and remote communities in resource hinterlands, population ageing driven by industrial restructuring presents a significant departure from past experience. Drawing on examples from northern British Columbia (BC), this paper examines this context of ageing in rural and remote locations with the purpose of highlighting impending challenges for health care service provision. In the first part of this paper, we provide a demographic overview of population change and ageing in northern BC. In the second part, we present data on the availability of services throughout the region to support seniors who age-in-place. Population ageing, in areas that have never dealt with this issue before, highlights not only important servicing questions but also important policy questions about how to provide for needs that the policy and community context are not presently equipped to meet.     

HOW WELL DID PAST UN POPULATION PROJECTIONS ANTICIPATE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN SIX SOUTH-EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES?

This paper analyses the accuracy of the United Nations’ population projections since the late 1950s for six South-east Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The study uses available projected and estimated age-structured data as well as published assumptions on fertility and mortality trends. A decomposition of the total projection errors into base errors (wrong estimates of demographic conditions at the beginning of projection interval) and change errors (wrong assumptions about the trends) shows that the base errors have generally been decreasing over time presumably as a consequence of improving demographic monitoring systems. The change errors, however, do not seem to decline over time. This seems to be due to a number of country-specific cultural and political factors whose effect was not anticipated as well as to a lack of good theories with predictive power. These findings suggest the need to give more explicit attention to the treatment of uncertainty in future population projections.     

Six decades of ethnic minority population change in China

ABSTRACT

China’s 55 non-Han ethnic minority groups were at least in part politically and institutionally ‘invented’ by China’s ethnic classification project, and also through the effects of the system of continuous population census. This paper investigates population change of the non-Han ethnic minorities (NHEMs) over the past six decades. The number of NHEMs as a whole tripled from 1953 to 2010. However, growth has differed among individual groups and in different time periods. The population of some groups has fluctuated while that of others has grown steadily, regardless of the size of the groups. As a whole, since 2000 the growth rate of NHEMs has been lower than that of the Han Chinese, and the population of 13 NHEM groups has begun to decline. A growing number of people belonging to ethnic minorities have switched their ethnic identities to Han. This has especially been the case for NHEM youth. The change in ethnic minority populations has been influenced by dynamic interactions among demographic factors, ethnic identification as well as political, economic and policy changes.     

Daily life in the country. The co-existence of Jews and Christians at the end of the Weimar Republic

Godwin's controversial claim for earthly immortality in the first edition of Political Justice has been largely dismissed by scholars as a flaw in his philosophy or as absurd speculation which Godwin cannily omitted from the later editions of the text. In this paper, I will demonstrate, not only that such claims were not nearly as idiosyncratic or eccentric as they have been presented, but that they constitute an intrinsic part of his overall philosophy regarding perfectibility and human progress. Moreover, by examining the revisions made to Political Justice in the second and third editions, it will be possible to prove that the essence of his argument regarding material immortality was not as radically altered as is widely accepted. I will further show how the population controversy of the 18th century forced Godwin to apply his perfectibilist theory to contemporary demographic challenges and how he defended his concept of immortality from both the principle of population and, more particularly, Malthusian philosophy.     

近代华北农村人口消长及其流动——兼论黄宗智“没有发展的增长”说

清代咸丰朝以后 ,华北四省的人口数量一直呈增长趋势 ,这一地区出现了人满为患的局面。严重的人口压力和由此产生的谋求基本生存条件的迫切需要 ,造成了华北地区人口成百万地向东北和内蒙古地区迁移。在人口压力的驱动下 ,近代华北农村技术经济作物的扩大 ,亦农亦商的普遍趋向 ,以副补农的普遍存在等 ,都可以视为农业经济发展的表征。判断明清以来中国农业有无发展 ,并不能仅仅局限于单位工作日劳动生产率的狭窄范畴。衡量农业发展的标准 ,应当包括生产力和生产关系两个方面     

Veiqati Vaka Viti and the Fiji Islands Elections in 1999

ABSTRACT

The question of demographic decline in the Marquesas Islands is here reinvestigated through an integrated approach to the particular case of Ua Huka. We first attempt to propose a new population estimate for the period prior to European contact, thanks to an archaeologically based method that relies on the length of sleeping areas available in the housing structures recorded in the valleys. From this estimate, we then use ethnohistorical accounts to reassess local demographic evolution throughout the 19th century. This leads us to partly nuance the impact of Westerners, especially the introduction of diseases, which on Ua Huka appears to have been less critical than other factors such as sociopolitical conditions, including intense warfare, linked to unfavourable environmental conditions.