Research Publications by Raymond E. Crist

As metropolitan Miami's population has experienced a radical change in its ethnic composition since Fidel Castro's revolution in Cuba in 1959, it has become a second homeland for the United States Cuban-American population. This article documents the ethnic change that has taken place in Miami during the past three decades. As evidence of the emergence of Miami as a homeland in absentia the following topics are discussed: the growth and dispersion of the city's Cubans, Miami as a magnet for Cubans living elsewhere in the U.S., the Hispanic economic enclave that has developed in Miami, the emergence of Cubans as a major political force, the development ofmunicipios in exile in Miami, and the possibilities of the return to Cuba by Cuban Americans if the current communist government were to fall in their island of origin.     

RECENT AND PROSPECTIVE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE U.S.S.R.: 1979-2025

This report presents the results and assumptions of a set of projections of the population of the USSR, 1979-2025. Trends in population size and age-sex composition as well as fertility, mortality, and emigration are discussed. The detailed projection methodology is described in Kingkade (1987). The projections show that the population of the USSR will grow throughout the period to 2025. The working age population will grow very slowly for at least the next 10 years, and will not recapture the rapid growth experienced in the 1970s. The pension-age population will double in size between 1980 and 2025.     

Choices and responsibilities: finding the balance

Rapid population growth means the addition of a billion more people in 11 years. The International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), scheduled for September 5-13, 1994, will address the issue of population growth and design strategies for slower growth with economic development and environmental protection. This article summarizes Dr. Nafis Sadik's special preparatory message about the conference. The ICPD will address the issues of reproductive health, affordable family planning (FP), and informed choice. There will be an emphasis on better health care, housing, education, and other poverty alleviation measures. Empowerment of women through educational and economic opportunity and increased foreign aid are also themes. Improvements in the quality of life as well as demographic and social change are required. The key to slowing population growth is to meet the need for FP services to reduce fertility. Reexamination of the life-styles of the more affluent is also required. Needs and resources must be balanced. Sustainable development and resource use will depend upon slower population growth, more rational population distribution, alleviation of poverty, environmentally safer consumption patterns, and other measures. The 1994 draft plan of action has a broad mandate which recognizes the linkages between population and development. Target dates and reproductive rights language are bracketed and will be discussed during the conference. Quantitative goals are set for education, child and maternal mortality reduction, and universal access to FP and reproductive health services. The public should be made aware of the development and population links. Developing countries are asked to devote 20% of their government budget to social development. Countries by their action or inaction will choose a world population size in 2015 ranging from 7.27 to 7.92 billion. The difference of 660 million in 20 years is equal to the current population in Africa. The high projection for 2050 is 12.5 billion people. The ICPD will be the last global opportunity before the turn of the century to address the challenges of shared responsibility for the future of life on earth.     

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models

This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project the spatial outcome of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The three-equation multiplicative model of population change, employment change, and land absorption is estimated using three-stage least squares to account for endogeneity among the dependent variables and contemporaneous correlation across the system of equations. In addition to the core model, alternative specifications are estimated, imposing the initial conditions of size, land availability, and economic structure. The stability of the solutions is then examined using reduced-form equations estimated via the seemingly unrelated regression equations approach. The results reveal substantive evidence that population and employment growth are jointly determined, of how the two affect the outcome of land development, and, perhaps most importantly, stable and fractionally reasonable estimates at projected equilibrium points. Lastly, the adapted model controlling for the initial condition of land availability is used to project patterns of land consumption at equilibrium in 50 rapid-growth metropolitan areas.     

The late George Alexander turner,M.D.

The paper argues the case for population geography as a strong, self‐aware sub‐discipline that plays to its strengths, while not abandoning innovation. In place of hollow calls for (re)‐theorisation, population geographers should first recognise their claims to certain kinds of praxis in contributing to an ethical and equitable society through the insights that population geography can bring. Second, the paper argues that rather than focusing on bringing social theory into population geography, there is more potential in examining how (in)adequately social theory has engaged with demographic issues. Third, the paper suggests that population geographers need to think about the new contexts in which they are engaging with large spatially‐referenced numerical data sets.     

中国城市的商业郊区化及研究迟缓发展探讨

随着城市人口郊区化、工业郊区化的发展,商业也就不可避免的有向郊区化发展的趋势,中国商业发展状况存在地区不平衡性,大城市商业发展情况较好,一些城市已开始有商业郊区化现象,但是目前商业郊区化的现象还很不明显,相对人口和工业郊区化而言比较迟缓。这与郊区化概念有一定影响外,更主要是因为商业本身的特征(包括发展机制、付租能力、业态多样性等)以及中国的国情等。本文首先回顾了中国商业郊区化的研究,得出商业郊区化的动力主要来自购买力的外移、交通的改善以及郊区地价和租金相对市区便宜等,并在分析商业网点布局的影响因素基础上,探讨城市商业网点布局发展的阶段特征以及阐述商业郊区化为什么在中国发展迟缓的原因。     

基于腾讯迁徙大数据的长三角城市群春运人口流动时空特征

开展城市群人口流动研究对促进区域人口有序流动和城市群协同发展具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。本文基于腾讯迁徙大数据，运用GIS空间统计和K-shell分解等方法，从人口流动总量、位序、时序和网络层级等方面，对我国长三角城市群2018年春运期间的人口流动特征进行系统研究。结果表明：①长三角城市群春运期间大规模的“返乡流”和“返城流”呈现明显的对称性，并分别于除夕和第一个工作日达到最高峰。②经济发展水平相对较高的上海、苏州、杭州等为劳动力输入型城市，而经济发展水平相对较低的盐城、安庆和滁州等为劳动力输出型城市。③长三角城市群内部人口流动网络具有明显的层级特征，其中上海和杭州是人口辐射核心城市，上海-合肥、上海-南京、上海-杭州等是人口流动的主体路径；空间上东部-西部横向人口流动最为频繁，大体呈现“Z”字形。     

重庆市人口与经济发展空间耦合分布研究

本文基于2001-2012 年重庆市各个区县的人口和经济数据,计算重庆市各区县的人口地理集中度和经济地理集中度并结合耦合指数,分析人口分布与经济分布耦合特征与人口与经济空间分布类型,并运用Geoda、ArcGIS 软件对重庆各个区县人口与经济的全局和局部空间自相关分析,建立人口与经济发展耦合度模型与耦合协调度模型,分析人口与经济的空间耦合度的特征。研究结果表明：①重庆市的人口与经济整体水平有较好的发展趋势,但区域发展差异明显。②人口集中度和经济集中度总体上呈现“一圈高,两翼低”的特点。③2001-2012 年间重庆市人口与经济耦合度总体呈上升趋势,且人口与经济间的耦合作用不断增强。     

吉林省人口密度空间格局演变及其形成机制

本文运用集中指数、趋势面分析和空间自相关等方法对1990年代以来吉林省49个行政单元的人口密度空间格局演化及其形成机制进行分析。结果表明:吉林省人口密度以集中式发展为主,在空间上呈现"中间高,两边低"的纵向分布特点;2000年以来人口密度空间分布不均衡性进一步加剧,是吉林省人口密度空间格局变化的转折点。吉林省人口密度空间格局演变机制主要缘于自然环境、经济发展水平、交通格局、政策因素和历史基础等方面。     

From Fighting Underpopulation to Curbing Population Growth: Tracing Colonial Power in German Development Interventions in Tanzania

This paper investigates how colonial power is rearticulated in policy and practice of German development cooperation in Tanzania. Drawing on archives and interviews, it analyses the emergence of interventions with regard to population control and reproductive health during Germany's colonisation of ‘German East Africa’ and compares these interventions to present-day German development assistance in Tanzania. While German policies during colonial rule addressed ‘underpopulation’ and contemporary German development aid stresses population growth to be the problem, this paper finds that racialised, gendered discourses are interconnected with the political economy of population control in both periods. It highlights that colonial power in development cooperation can only be fully comprehended by tracing the continuity of colonial discourses to material practices as well as economic interests of the Global North, and argues that critique of population politics should address population control in general – whether anti- or pro-natalist – as imbued with racism and serving the interests of capital. Such a perspective might allow us to be sensitive to possible future developments in population and reproductive health policy towards the Global South, in which antinatalist (regarding marginalised people) and pronatalist (regarding privileged people) policies run concurrently, as is the case in countries of the Global North today.     

中国人口老龄化的特点、成因及对策分析

人口老龄化是人口年龄结构的变化,是社会经济发展影响人口发展过程的必然产物,同时将对社会经济发展和未来人口变化产生深刻的影响。我国同时是世界人口大国和老年人口大国,老龄化过程有着自身的特点和独特的成因机制。本文通过定量分析,认为我国人口老龄化的特征表现在四个方面:①人口转变迅速,老龄化进程快;②老年人口绝对数量大,低龄老人多,高龄老人增长速度快;③人口老化与综合国力发展不相适应;④人口老龄化的区域差异显著。计划生育政策的推行和人口寿命的延长是我国人口老龄化的直接原因。最后提出了解决我国人口老龄化问题的对策与措施:转变观念,科学、辨证地认识人口老龄化问题;努力提高劳动生产率,增强经济承受能力;建立符合我国国情的养老保障体系和老年照料体系;建立健康的老年型社会。     

区域一体化的人口增长与集散效应——以长三角地区为例

城市群一体化深化过程中,如何引导人口布局优化,是推动经济社会高质量发展的重要举措之一。本文基于长三角1990—2017年城市尺度数据,采用双重差分模型,多角度检验一体化的城市人口增长效应,并初步探讨相关驱动机制。结果表明：(1)一体化能够显著促进城市人口更快增长,且城市就业人口规模越大、人口集聚效应越显著。(2)总体效应的显著性,并不能掩盖一体化过程中人口集聚效应的异质性,一方面随着加入协调会时间的推进,不同阶段效应由正转负,另一方面存在不同批次间效应先增长后下降的差异。(3)一体化过程中要素集聚带来的经济发展水平提升,是城市人口更快增长的关键动力,中介效应与调节效应模型验证了这一假设。     

An alternative policy approach to rural development in regions facing population decline

ABSTRACT

Many rural regions in Europe used to be characterized by weak economic performance and negative population development. While in a long-term perspective this is not any more valid for large parts of Western Europe, a number of rural regions face persistent population decline. By analysing the case of Austria, where approximately one-third of rural areas have experienced such negative population change over the past decades, this paper will examine the impact on economic performance, income levels and well-being patterns. Addressing the crucial and persistent obstacles to positive population trends, new theoretical approaches and perspectives are discussed for overcoming limitations in development. Future approaches for regional development have to go beyond strategies for targeting economic growth, but have to address issues of local participation, social innovation and establishing trust as preconditions to effectively impact well-being dimensions. Such a mobilization effort would be the result of a comprehensive social transition process which would foster an altered narrative for these rural regions compared to the current and predominant focus on compensation and growth policies. Despite strong interlinkages with other regions and actors, the needs of local people would be central and both would be a cornerstone for social innovation.     

人口城镇化不是农村工业化、乡村城镇化

人口城镇化和农村工业化、乡村城镇化哪种提法更符合社会发展的趋势?它们之间的最大区别,是人口城镇化必然要求较大规模的人口乡→城异地迁移,农村工业化和乡村城镇化更强调人口的就地转化。人口城镇化是现代社会的发展趋势,而农村工业化和乡村城镇化只适用于部分条件较为优越的地区,大部分现有的农村是不可能工业化、也不可能城镇化的。所以,作为未来的发展方针,必须提人口城镇化,而不是农村工业化或乡村城镇化。并且,人口城镇化还肩负着转移农村剩余劳动力、提高农业经营规模和节约利用土地资源等多重使命,需要作出系统的政策安排。     

MAPPING OF THE POPULATION POTENTIAL

The development of the population potential model and its use both in the Soviet Union and abroad are reviewed. A formula proposed by O. D. Duncan, incorporating the so-called inner potential (equivalent to the actual population) in the formula for the population potential of a region or place is found to yield exaggerated high values for population centers. Interpolation of potentials on the basis of such peak values leads to considerable distortion of reality, as does the use of transport distance instead of straightline distance between interacting places. The author develops new formulas for the construction of population potential maps in an effort to refine the technique and extend its applicability to large-scale mapping.     

Rural China in ruins: The rush to urbanize China's countryside is opening a moral battleground (Respond to this article at http://www.therai.org.uk/at/debate)

China has officially become a predominantly urban country, with over 50% of the population now registered as urban residents. Its urbanization process has been described as the most managed in human history. The Chinese government manages the building of new cities, regulates the housing of displaced people and controls squatters. As an historically poorer area, the west of China has been the target of ongoing efforts at infrastructural development. Describing urbanization as managed however masks the conflicts and contradictions involved in a process which is far from smooth. Although villagers are usually seen to be largely the powerless victims of these initiatives, it is clear that many try to take advantage of the situation, while others are unable to do so. Based on recent fieldwork and eight years of visits to one village undergoing urbanization, this article looks at the complex dynamics involved and at the moral battleground which they lay bare.     

Logistic Population Growth in the World's Largest Cities

This article demonstrates that recent population growth in the world's largest cities has conformed to the general parameters of the logistic process. Using data recently provided by the United Nations, logistic population growth for 485 million-person cities is analyzed at 5-year intervals during 1950–2010, with the UN projections for 2015 adopted as upper limits. A series of ordinary least-squares regression models of increasing complexity are estimated on the pooled data. In one class of models, the logarithms of population proportions are specified to be linear in time, which is the standard approach, but in a second class of models those proportions are specified as being quadratic. The most complex models control logistic growth estimates for (i) city-specific effects (e.g., initial population), (ii) nation-specific effects (e.g., economic development, age distribution of population), and (iii) global coordinates (for unobserved effects). Moreover, the results are segregated according to each city's membership in four different growth clubs, which was an important finding of previous research.     

Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Correlations of Prehistoric Population and Vegetation in North America

We discuss a simple methodology to enable a statistical comparison of human population with the vegetation of North America over the past 13,000 years. Nonparametric kernel methods are applied for temporal and spatial smoothing of point data obtained from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and the Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database, which results in sequences of maps showing the development of population and different plant taxa during the Holocene. The estimation of smooth spatial and spatio-temporal cross-correlation functions is proposed in order to detect relationships between population and vegetation in fixed time intervals. Furthermore, the effects of varying environment on demographic changes as well as potential impacts of populations on plant taxa over time are analyzed. Pointwise confidence bands for cross-correlation functions are computed and a robustness analysis is performed to assess the significance of obtained results. Considering the example of oak, an interpretation of our results for eastern North America shows the value of this methodology.     

RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS IN AFRICA: SOME LESSONS FROM WESTERN NIGERIA

I n an analysis of regional problems within Africa, the frequent imbalance between the geographic distribution of resources and of population suggests that rural development and resettlement will play an increasingly important role in mobilizing the continent's latent resource base. With the almost universally increasing rates of population growth in Africa, pressure for redistribution of people is increasing, most of which manifests itself in accelerating rates of urbanization. But it is also apparent that developing urban areas can only effectively absorb a small proportion of maldistributed population. Therefore national planning programs are increasingly focusing upon the need to reconstruct or to reorientate the economic milieu of rural areas, as is demonstrated by increasing investment in rural development and settlement schemes.     

Application of Quantitative Methods of Settlement Analysis to a Lower-Level (Intra—Oblast) Economic Regionalization

Two quantitative techniques—the mean center of population of the old centrography school, and the potential of population—are applied to settlement analysis in Eastern Siberia for purposes of lower economic regionalization. The migrations of the mean center of population of Yakut ASSR and Irkutsk Oblast are interpreted in terms of regional development trends from the 1920s to the 1960s. Analyses of the potential of population for different dates suggest the formation of areal production nodes that can be used in delimiting lower economic regions. The boundaries between such lower-order regions tend to pass through undeveloped and sparsely settled areas that show up as low values on maps of the potential of population.