Climate change perceptions and responses in Scotland's ski industry

The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland. Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry, and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse. Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours. Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and capacity to adapt.     

Seasonal weather sensitivity,temperature thresholds,and climate change impacts for park visitation

Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.     

Future Non-Analogue Climates for Scotland’s Temperate Rainforest

Temperate rainforest is restricted to a globally rare set of climatic conditions. Scotland has among the best remaining examples of intact temperate rainforest in Europe, characterised ecologically by a unique assemblage of epiphytic bryophytes and lichens. Given climatic control on rainforest distribution and ecology, climate change is a probable risk to Scotland’s rainforest. This study investigated climate change impacts for 20 target sites, classified based on (i) bioclimatic conditions, and (ii) epiphytic diversity, into contrasting rainforest and more continental (non-rainforest) examples. Space-for-time matching identified climate analogues within the European conservation forest network, which at present have a climate similar to that expected of the target sites during the 2080s (WorldClim datasets). The results show that 2080s analogues for sites in more continental north-eastern Scotland occur in Wales and southern England. However, Scottish rainforest sites were their own ‘best analogues’ through to the 2080s, despite the fact that their climate is projected to change significantly; they had no suitable future analogue within Europe’s conservation forest network. These contrasting regional patterns highlight the need for a flexible approach to species conservation during climate change, including a strategy to cope with ecological uncertainty in Scotland’s zone of oceanic rainforest.     

Planning for Climate Change Adaptation in a Multi-level Context: The Gothenburg Metropolitan Area

Individual local governments are key players in Sweden's strategy for climate adaptation but their authority does not match the scale of climate change and its impacts. Competences are divided among local, regional and national authorities. Climate adaptation thus requires cooperation, particularly in metropolitan regions. This raises issues of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of adaptation measures recommended in local Master Plans. The focus here is on how the 13 municipalities in the Gothenburg Metropolitan Area—expected to be the part of Sweden most affected by impacts of climate change—address and act upon issues of climate change adaptation within the framework of Sweden's Planning and Building Act, which places responsibility for the “common interest” of climate adaptation with local governments. Analysing municipal Master Plans, as well as the comments on these plans from the regional County Administrative Board and from Göteborg Region Association of Local Authorities, the inter-municipal association charged with infrastructural planning, I identify patterns in terms of coordination, legitimacy and effectiveness of planning for climate change adaptation. Results are discussed in relation to propositions from recent research on planning for climate adaptation in multi-level contexts.     

Climate change resilience in the Canadian Arctic: The need for collaboration in the face of a changing landscape

Human-induced changes to global climate have become increasingly difficult to ignore in recent years. As the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increases, the impacts on both natural and human systems are becoming difficult to manage with the current policies. In Canada, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change is the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at a rate two to three times that of the global average. Warmer seasonal temperatures have led to melting permafrost and increased variability in sea ice conditions, which has contributed to a rise in coastal erosion. The ongoing resilience of Arctic communities will depend heavily on their ability to implement successful long-term adaptation policies. The development and implementation of any action on climate change adaptation should involve collaboration with local stakeholders in order to reflect the views and experience of those living in the Arctic.     

Whether Rain or Shine: Weather Regimes from a New Guinea Perspective

The climate of any region is of interest to those who live there, impinging as it inevitably does on their lives. This paper explores the interest evinced in the weather by some Wola speakers, living in the Southern Highlands Province of Papua New Guinea. It is an attempt at an ethno-meteorology, a scarcely researched but creditable field of enquiry. It compares and contrasts observations of the climate and records of the weather with local people's comments and thoughts on these phenomena. The paper covers both daily weather patterns and annual seasons, with a detailed investigation of rainfall patterns, cloud cover, wind and pressure, and temperature and humidity variations. It concludes on the management of climatic perturbations, notably infrequent frosts.     

NDVI variation and its relation to climate in Canadian ecozones

Parks Canada began the Northern Satellite Monitoring Program in 1997, with the objective of tracking large‐scale vegetation variation in Canadian ecosystems and helping land managers to develop appropriate management practices in response to climate change. Under this program, a sequence of 10‐day composite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1985 to 2007 was examined to study seasonal and inter‐annual relationships between vegetation and climate data over Canadian ecosystems using statistical and wavelet analysis. Statistical analysis showed that temperature was the principal driver for seasonal variability in greenness, explaining more than 70 percent of seasonal variation in vegetation for most Canadian ecozones. In comparison with temperature, the relationships between NDVI and precipitation were weaker but still significant. Maximum annual NDVI showed increasing trends in Canadian ecozones during the study period, although increasing rates were spatially heterogeneous. Wavelet analysis confirmed that inter‐annual variation in NDVI was different at two ecozones in Canada. NDVI variation in the Northern Arctic was significant at scales of 3–4 years from 1997 to 2001, which was associated with temperature and precipitation variation. Comparatively, NDVI variation in the Boreal Shield was significant at scales of 5–8 years from 1991 to 1999, but did not correspond with climate variation.     

Model tuning and its impact on modelled climate change response: Hudson Bay sea ice, a case study

The impact of climate model parameterization is examined using Hudson Bay sea ice as a case study. The implicit diffusion of an upstream scheme used in a three dimensional ocean general circulation model is locally determined by using a one dimension proxy model of Hudson Bay with atmospheric, cryospheric and oceanic components. Using this proxy model, distinct pairs of values for the thermal conductivity of sea ice and thermal diffusivity of sea water are found that reproduce the current climatology of sea ice thickness in Hudson Bay. These pairs of values are subsequently used in a 3°C warming scenario. The resulting ice thicknesses are shown to be highly dependent on the choice of these pairs of values as well as the seasonal distribution of the warming.     

Vulnerability to climate change hazards and risks: crop and flood insurance

This paper reviews the widely used concepts of risk and vulnerability as they relate to climate and weather hazards, re‐conceptualizes these terms in the context of climate change and illustrates this development using crop and flood insurance as examples. Government subsidization of insurance against risks associated with adverse climatic conditions and weather events, such as flood damage and crop loss, may lead to individual decisions that actually increase the susceptibility of people, property and economic activities to those risks. The processes that give rise to this phenomenon are important in understanding the vulnerability of human populations to climate change. In many regions, existing conditions that give rise to flooding or crop failure are likely to be exacerbated by climate change over coming decades. In the climate change field, vulnerability has been conceptualised as a function of exposure to risk and as an ability to adapt to the effects. In this context, crop and flood insurance are possible adaptive measures. This treatment of vulnerability compares with similar concepts in insurance and risk management whereby events that cause loss are known as perils, and physical conditions, such as climate change, that increase the likelihood of a peril occurring, are known as physical hazards. Human behaviour that increases the exposure of individuals to potential perils is known as morale hazard or moral hazard, depending on the intentions of the person. Vulnerability consequently becomes a function of hazard and responses taken to reduce risk. Examples of crop and flood insurance programs from Canada, New Zealand and the U.S. are used to show how subsidized insurance might create a morale hazard in addition to physical hazards such as short‐term weather events and long‐term climate change, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability than would otherwise exist. These findings demonstrate that human behaviour affects the formation of both exposure and adaptive capacity in the context of vulnerability to climate change. Responses taken to increase adaptive capacity may in some cases be offset by individual behaviour that increases exposure.     

Weathering time: walking with young children in a changing climate

ABSTRACT

Children growing up today face a multitude of climate-related challenges, requiring a capacity for creative and ethical modes of attending to both the known and unknown effects of a changing climate. In response to these challenges, I explore the potential in children’s weathering encounters, as observed during an ethnographic research project titled Walking with Wildlife in Wild Weather Times. In particular, I consider the various ways children engage with the weather and what this reveals about our (human) interconnections and minglings with the weather world. In this paper, I focus specifically on the temporal dimensions of child/weather encounters. My aim is to show that taking the time with children to slow down and attend to the elemental affects in the world, can reveal a weathered entanglement of past, present and future and a foundation for a curious and open attentiveness in responding to the climate challenges ahead.     

Weather sensitivity and climate change perceptions of tourists: a segmentation analysis

ABSTRACT

Many communities rely on tourism spending, so it is important to understand any potential changes to tourist flows resulting from changing climate and weather patterns. However, tourists are not a homogenous group, as they have different motivations, values, and goals. Therefore, the purpose of this investigation is to better understand potentially varying perceptions and behavior of different tourist types, specifically in regards to their weather sensitivity, climate change concern, and behavioral intention for climate change mitigation. Tourists were randomly surveyed at 20 locations throughout the state of Maine in the United States (n = 704). Segmentation analysis on the activities tourists participated in yielded three segments of Maine tourists: non-nature-based tourists (50.6%), nature-based generalists (16.2%), and nature-based specialists (33.2%). Differences across segments were explored for perceptions of weather impacts, climate change concern, and mitigation intent. Additionally, weather sensitivity was analyzed based on type of overnight accommodations to better understand if this also had a role in differences. Non-nature-based tourists thought that weather variables were less influential during their travels in Maine than the other segments, while nature-based generalists perceived weather to have the highest influence. Additionally, nature-based specialists had the highest level of climate change belief, while nature-based generalists had the highest willingness to engage in climate change mitigation behavior. Results are useful to understand how segments of tourism demand may be altered with a changing climate, such as increased temperatures, precipitation, and storms, and what groups may be the most beneficial to target for marketing or educational efforts to reduce the impact of climate change.     

World Heritage hot spots: a global model identifies the 16 natural heritage properties on the World Heritage List most at risk from climate change

UNESCO’s 207 natural heritage World Heritage Properties are at risk from climate change, but risk varies widely among properties. I offer a global model based on multi-model general circulation model (GCM) ensembles, vulnerability and Human Influence (HII), producing the World Heritage Vulnerability Index (WHVI), a measure of relative risk among properties. Nineteen properties are most at risk (i.e. WHVI > mean + 1 SD). Those include islands (i.e. Vallée de Mai, Aldabra, East Rennell, Teide, Laurisilva of Maderia, Isole Eloie, Pitons Management Area, Morne Trois Pitons and Galapagos Islands), coastal properties (i.e. Everglades, Desembarco del Granma, High Coast and Kvarken Archipelago, Doñana, Brazilian Atlantic Islands, Ichkeul and the Sunderbans) and mountainous properties (i.e. the Pyrenees Mont Pérdu, Nanda Devi and the Valley of Flowers, and Mount Kinabalu). Three properties (i.e. Teide, Isole Eloie and the Pitons Management Area) are geologic, apparently relatively resistant to short-term climactic changes. The remaining 16 are likely to respond to climactic changes in the next 40 years; those changes may threaten their World Heritage status. Those properties are where society could most effectively invest in adaptation. I identify adaptive strategies and next steps for proactive climate change adaptation in the 16 natural heritage properties on the World Heritage List most at risk.     

Living with anthropogenic climate change: Learning from environmental history to question narratives of doom,hope, and crisis

We are living with anthropogenic climate change and must address the causes and reduce the negative impacts on our planet, humans, and other species. This commentary offers a brief review of environmental history from deep time to recent waves of environmentalism demonstrating that climate change has occurred before; that people have faced perceived end times; and that predictions of doom have helped us to act to avoid that potential scenario. These are important lessons for how we may live today and into the future, given the shift from climate change denial to narratives of impending doom because we have already failed to act. The commentary presents a matrix of positions adopted in relation to climate change and environmentalism more generally, highlighting narratives of hope, doom, and urgency. While not exhaustive, these summarised positions alert us to possibilities and are intended to generate wider discussion about how we may live with anthropogenic climate change. We have to learn to live with anthropogenic climate change while addressing the causes and reducing the negative impacts on our planet, humans and on other species.     

Natural encounters: climate,weather and the Italian Renaissance

This paper examines a key issue in the history of the climate in the pre-instrumental period, that is, how to use narrative sources which make frequent references to weather events, but which need contextualised interpretation. The paper follows an argument that climatological techniques for deriving temperature indices from chronicles, though they have become increasingly elaborate and refined, nevertheless leave out much that is of interest to the social historian. This paper explores the area of the what-is-left-behind when chronicle narratives are reduced to numerical indices. Investigating a broad range of Latin and Italian chronicles from fourteenth and fifteenth-century Italy, the paper draws three main conclusions: that sensitivity to weather events not only varied greatly among writers (as one might expect) but so too did their use of severe weather to serve the purposes of narrative (through sequencing, metaphor and analogy); that sensitivity to meteorological anomaly changed during the period, especially in the fifteenth century with the spread of prognosticating verses; and that the broadening of chroniclers' interests in weather, both ordinary and extraordinary, and in its effects on everyday, material life may allow a connection to and re-evaluation of the Burckhartian idea of the Renaissance ‘discovery of the world’.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of the urban heat island effect in a small Brazilian city

This study examined the spatial and temporal patterns of the canopy layer urban heat islands (UHI_UCL) in a small city in southeastern Brazil using the local climate zone (LCZ) system. We analysed the influence of weather conditions, LCZs characteristics, and local surface relief on the UHI_UCL magnitudes. Mobile traverses were used to measure air temperatures during representative nights of wet and dry seasons. Daily maximum magnitudes were observed in compact classes (LCZs 3 and 7) under ideal weather conditions (dry, clear skies, and calm) and higher anthropogenic heat release (weekdays). Seasonal effects on LCZ thermal differences were negligible. The peripheral landscapes were warmer than the city centre in both seasons. Among the warmer areas in the city, magnitudes in compact LCZs 3 and 7 were consistently higher than in LCZ 6. In general, representative sites of the main ‘built’ LCZs in the study area exhibit similar inter-zone temperature patterns to those reported for cities of different sizes from tropical and midlatitude regions. Thermal contrasts of ΔT_{LCZ 3 − D} in the study area reveal significant evidence that small cities can have as strong heat islands as bigger cities. These findings highlight the importance of the LCZ system to identify the main controlling factors driving such thermal differences and the need to extend the application of this approach in other South American cities to yield systematic data of UHI_UCL for urban planning given the coming challenges of climate change over the region.     

旅游气候研究进展与启示

气候是旅游发展的重要因子。近年来,局部地区恶劣气候频繁出现,旅游业发展受到影响。总结国内外旅游气候研究进展,国外研究主要集中于旅游目的地气候条件对旅游业发展、旅游者行为的影响和人类旅游活动对气候的现实和潜在的影响;国内研究则集中在气候旅游资源和旅游地气候舒适度两方面。总的看来,国内外旅游气候研究的中心议题都围绕着气候是旅游业的影响要素,主要贡献有气候是包括自然旅游资源在内的资源形成背景;特殊的气象景观和优良的气候条件是旅游地重要吸引物,进而影响到旅游者决策行为,因此气候调查和分析应视为旅游规划的前提。     

快速城市化地区应对气候变化的城市规划探讨——以南京市为例

全球气候变化是人类历史上对文明生存的最大挑战。近年来,世界各国出现了几百年来历史上最极端的天气,它的出现与人类活动密不可分。为此,世界各国展开了包括行政手段和技术手段等在内的应对气候变化的方法,城市规划也是一个关注和讨论的重点领域。但是,目前这些方法仍旧延续了原有城市规划的原则和方法,现实指导作用较为有限。特别是对于快速城市化地区,如何通过调整规划原则和方法,编制能应对气候变化的城市或区域规划,仍是亟待探索和实践的问题。因此,本文就快速城市化地区如何应对气候变化提出了一系列的城市规划原则与方法,并将其深入落实在南京新一轮城市规划中。     

Parched and impatient: Political engagement after drought

How does local experience of climate change alter voters' policy preferences and voting decisions? After exposure to a climate disaster, voters may elect politicians prioritising robust disaster prevention policies, or conversely, immediate economic relief. In turn, elected representatives will either mitigate or exacerbate the severity of future climate events. In this study, I leverage a climate event with a high degree of local geographic variation – a pre-election drought in Australia – to see how it shaped political beliefs and behaviours in 2019. Using a longitudinal panel survey, I show that voters in drought-exposed areas increasingly prioritised individual economic security, rather than broader climate-mitigation policies. Moreover, I find that regional micro-parties in drought-affected regions gained vote share. In other words, voters at the front-lines of climate change sought out immediate and local economic relief. Unless local politicians can propose climate policies with short-term economic benefits, disasters may limit governments' capacities to pursue long-term climate resilience.     

The new Siberia

This paper assesses relationships between Scottish ice climbing and daily weather conditions between 1961 and 1990. Synoptic air flow and instrumental climate data from Braemar and Fort Augustus were analysed in relation to first ascents of ice climbs in the Cairngorms, and on Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. Lagged weather variables were calculated and stepwise logistic regression was used to estimate optimum models for both areas. Significant variables are anticyclonicity, low minimum air temperature and northerly or easterly airflow (Cairngorms, P = 0.0006); and northerly or easterly airflow, low minimum air temperature and low precipitation (Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh, P < 0.0001). A five‐day cold spell is optimum for Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. A week with relatively little precipitation is beneficial in both areas. Air flow direction is more influential than vorticity, the optimum predictors of ice conditions using synoptic data alone are a persistent easterly component (beneficial), and a persistent southerly and westerly component (detrimental), P < 0.0001.     

Measuring park visitation vulnerability to climate extremes in U.S. Rockies National Parks tourism

ABSTRACT

Changes in temperature and precipitation can affect tourist experiences. This study examines how summer park visitation has changed in response to temperature and precipitation extremes. The study goals were two-fold. The first is to introduce a framework and the second is to test it in a pilot region with four mountainous National Parks. The framework is designed to compare the vulnerability of seasonal park visitation to shifts in a combined indicator of temperature and precipitation. It uniquely considers needed measurements, and the data required to conduct an analysis. The second goal is to test it in four destinations in the U.S. Northern Rockies, including Glacier, Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and Rocky Mountain National Parks. The preliminary test reveals outlier cases of visitation under wet and dry extremes. The analysis connects time series climate and visitation data for the peak summer season from 1991–2012. Outlier analysis illustrates more change in extremely dry conditions, with four out of the six dry-year outliers resulting in a visitation decline. Whether this decline in park tourism is attributable to climate features, economic factors, or conscious management decisions, these drops have significant economic impacts: estimates of changes in visitor spending during dry years are between roughly 9 and 90 million USD. These differences may be connected to the popular activities in each park, and the extent they are dependent on weather conditions. This framework can be used to test the relationship between climate and tourism visitation in other regions, in various seasons and time frames. The work may inform the tourist sector in adjusting and planning for a range of conditions. We discuss opportunities and conclude with additional needs for understanding the mechanisms behind risk in mountain park tourism under climate extremes.