HOW FAST IS THE POPULATION AGEING IN CHINA?

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts projections of China's population up to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Even though fertility is below replacement, China's population will continue growing for many years. One of the notable trends is the rapid ageing of the population. By the end of 2050, one-fifth to one-third of China's population will be aged 65 and over. The demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which, in turn, is determined by changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population change, and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century, and be well prepared for all possible challenges that may arise.     

Small Area Population Estimation: Estimating Population Size at Ward Level 2014 in South Africa

The census is the traditional source of population figures at various levels. Census figures however are technically outdated immediately they are released because planners require figures for the present and possibly for future dates. In an attempt to meet this demand different organisations and researchers produce population estimates and projections. These estimates however are usually at higher geographical levels and often do not meet the planning needs of administrators at lower geographical levels. This study extends a top‐down estimation method to an African country by estimating the mid‐2014 population at ward level in South Africa. The study used the 2011 South Africa Census to estimate current levels of fertility, mortality as well as current trends in net migration at a higher geographical level. Historical trends in fertility and mortality were based on the 1996 Census, 1997 and 1998 October Household Surveys as well as the 2007 Community Survey data. The results indicate that that 20 of the largest wards as at mid‐2014 were located in South Africa's metropolitan areas. Nineteen of the 20 largest wards are currently growing at a rate of over 4% per annum and if this trend continues, eighteen of these wards will double their current population size in less than 15 years.     

Scotland,Atlantic slavery and the Scottish National Party: From colonised to coloniser in the political imagination

Over the last three decades, a major shift has taken place in Scottish nationalist understandings of Scotland's colonial past. During the second half of the twentieth century, independence supporters viewed Scotland's relationship with England in colonial terms. Since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999, nationalists have increasingly recognised Scots' role in Atlantic slavery. This paper explores this change within the Scottish National Party (SNP) using archival sources, published material and Scottish Parliamentary records. It demonstrates that a maturing historiography has drawn attention to Scotland's slavery past. History has become politically relevant in transatlantic deliberations over racial injustice, which have grown in intensity since the international Black Lives Matter protests in 2020. SNP ministers and parliamentarians have responded to this context by incorporating addressing Scotland's role in Atlantic slavery within a case for independence that is styled as progressive and contrasts with the more recalcitrant attitudes, which predominate at UK level.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

The Size Distribution of Cities and Determinants of City Growth in Turkey

The aim of this study is two-fold. Firstly, this study examines the size distribution of cities by using Zipf's law. The second objective of this study is to investigate the effects of determinants of urban growth in Turkey by using the data for the 1980–2007 time period. The main findings of the study show that there is some evidence that Zipf's law holds in Turkey. Moreover, according to the rank-minus-half rule, the results suggest stronger support for Zipf's law in size distribution of the cities. Furthermore, the regression results indicate that fertility rate, location of the city, migration, agglomeration in services and specialization in manufacturing industry have positive impact, whereas schooling rate has a negative effect on growth of the urban population regarding Turkey.     

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

This paper estimates China’s future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural–urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China’s rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China’s urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.     

THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW AND ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO IN THE HONG KONG SAR

Hong Kong, like other countries with developed economies, is experiencing significant population ageing. The shift in the population age structure results from a combination of decreasing mortality rates and prolonged low fertility rates. This paper investigates the economic impact of changes in a population's age structure. We forecast on sex-specific labour force participation rates (LFPRs) and the economic dependency ratio (EDR) using different scenarios. Our results show that the below-unity level for the EDR—prevalent since 1996—will exceed unity in 2015 and rise steeply thereafter. By 2036, the projected EDR will reach an unprecedented high of 1.4, where every three economically-inactive persons will be supported by two economically-active persons in Hong Kong. This projection not only reflects a significant age shift towards the older end of the age spectrum, but is also driven by declining LFPRs among men.     

Evictability and the Biopolitical Bordering of Europe

Migration and border scholars have argued that the Europeanization and securitization of borders and migration have led to forms of population regulation that constitute a questionable divide between EU and non‐EU groups, as well as between different non‐EU groups. This paper argues that these processes have impacted not only centrifugally, on non‐EU populations, but also centripetally, on the “intra‐EU” divide regarding minorities such as Europe's Muslims and Roma. I explain how a de‐nationalization of the concepts and methods of migration and border studies—beyond methodological nationalism and Eurocentrism—sheds light on the under‐researched impact of the EU's external border regime on minoritized EU citizens. I introduce the notion of “evictability” to articulate this de‐nationalization and discuss the case study of Europe's Romani minority to show how contemporary forms of securitization further divide Europe bio‐politically along intra‐European lines.     

Don't throw out the baby with the bathwater: Estimating fertility from subadult skeletons

Recent research interest has focused on the bioarchaeology of children. Although paleodemography is essential for accurate reconstructions of lifestyle and health in past populations, currently there is no published technique for estimating fertility and life expectancy at birth for skeletal populations in which adults are under‐enumerated. This paper provides a formula to predict Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR) from the proportion of young infants to subadults in a skeletal population. The formula was developed from 98 of Coale and Demeny's Female Model West Life Tables, which represented diverse fertility and mortality rates. The formula's accuracy was examined using independent samples from historical and archaeological cemeteries. Estimates of GRR from the subadult fertility formula were compared with estimates from Bocquet‐Appel and Masset's juvenile:adult ratio. Results indicate that the subadult fertility formula predicts GRR with consistent accuracy (R² = 0.98) and precision (± 1 offspring) in the model life tables, across diverse subadult age structures and demographic characteristics. The formula is useful for subadult populations with a proportion of perinates:subadults between 0.12 and 0.45. The adult component of the sample is not included in the analysis and thus the formula is similarly useful in cases where adults are under‐enumerated, or not. When applied to historical and archaeological populations, estimates for GRR are similar to previous estimates from the juvenile:adult ratio. Because crude birth rate and life expectancy at birth can be calculated from GRR using established fertility centred approaches to demography, the subadult fertility formula allows skeletal populations of diverse composition to be included in demographic research, essential for understanding of how mortality and fertility are affecting the morbidity profiles of subadult samples and for comparative bioarchaeological analyses. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

News Notes

The settling of the Russians in Siberia is considered in the framework of three periods: (1) the 17th century, when the initial nucleus of the Russian population contingent was formed; (2) the 18th century and first half of the 19th, when in-migration declined and natural increase assumed a greater role in population growth; (3) the second half of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th, when Eastern Siberia's population grew at about the same rate as that of Russia as a whole, mainly through natural increase. Differences in natural increase, migration, economic activity and ethnic composition accounted for a wide diversification of the settling process within the region, and a number of distinctive settlement areas are described and mapped for the last two periods. Except for the initial intensive migration flow that gave rise to the nucleus of Russian population, Eastern Siberia's population growth before the 1917 Revolution derived mainly from natural increase, with migration playing a subordinate role.     

VARYING EFFECT OF FERTILITY DETERMINANTS AMONG MIGRANT AND INDIGENOUS FEMALES IN THE TRANSITIONAL AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONE OF GHANA

The transitional agro‐ecological zone of Ghana, located between the richly endowed south and the impoverished north, has attracted seasonal and permanent farm migrants, mainly from northern Ghana, who now live side by side with the indigenous people. While migrants have higher numbers of Muslims, indigenous people are mainly Christians. Although the majority of the migrants live in migrant quarters with less favourable socio‐economic conditions, they are more successful farmers and therefore wealthier. The objectives are to examine the varying effect of fertility determinants among migrants and indigenous females. This paper uses data collected in 2002 among 194 females aged 15 to 49 years. Multiple regression models are used to assess fertility determinants. Results show that although migrant households were wealthier, migrant females were more traditional. They had more children living in foster care, and a lower proportion of them approved of men participating in household activities. In addition, they were less well educated, recorded higher infant mortality, gave birth earlier and used less contraception. Furthermore, while a female's migration status is statistically significant so far as non‐proximate determinants of fertility are concerned, the same variable is not significant with respect to proximate determinants. In addition, a married female migrant would on average have almost one more child compared to her indigenous counterpart, and migrant females who had experienced the loss of a child would on average have 2.5 more children compared to their indigenous counterparts. Finally, more affluent migrant females have 0.08 fewer children compared to their indigenous counterpart.     

长春市人口老龄化时空演变及空间类型研究

构造了一个由数量老龄化、结构老龄化和密度老龄化三个指标所组成的综合老龄化指数（CAI）,并建立了一套人口老龄化空间类型划分方案,运用多尺度空间自相关分析对长春市人口老龄化空间的时空演变及空间类型进行研究。结果表明：①长春市近10年出现了老年人口郊区化的趋势,人口老龄化空间的“中心-边缘”分布格局在10年内没有发生显著改变,但空间扩散趋势十分明显,东部和南部近郊区出现了明显的人口老化趋势。②长春市形成了残留老化、集聚老化、自然老化和集聚稀释四种不同的人口老龄化类型区。城市核心区和远郊区形成以非老年人口大量流失为基本特征的残留老化型地区,而近郊区则形成以年轻人口大量涌入为特征的集聚稀释型地区,人口老龄化空间整体上呈现出一种城市中心区和远郊区的老化程度高于近郊区的夹层结构。     

Rubh’ an Dùnain: a multi‐period maritime landscape on the Isle of Skye,Inner Hebrides,Scotland

A non‐intrusive survey of this headland on Scotland's western seaboard reveals evidence of maritime activity from prehistory until the recent past. The siting of an Iron Age dun appears to have exploited a natural creek to bring boats to a secure landing‐place. Access was enhanced by a cleared channel, and two docks with adjacent nousts constructed. A stone‐revetted canal was later driven to the loch beyond, and quays built on either side of the entry. A 12th‐century boat‐timber was found in the loch. Later the canal was widened, and finally blocked. The sequence of development, and associated dating, merits further research.     

Perceived socio‐economic and environmental costs and benefits of ICZM in Scotland

ICZM in Scotland has followed a voluntary approach to date through local coastal fora. The socio‐economic costs and benefits of these fora are assessed based on a two‐track approach. Much of the information is based on analysis of questionnaire returns from the individual fora, while the ecosystem services approach was adopted to model economic impacts of the fora activities at two scenario levels: low and high level ICZM. Key features of the fora are presented, as is their perceived impact on the economy. The value of Scotland's coastal zone is presented in the form of the annual value of ecosystem services.     

Lime Burning in Clamp Kilns in Scotland's Western Central Belt: Primitive Industry or Simple but Perfectly Adequate Technology?

Lime is a fundamental component in many industrial, agricultural and chemical processes, and is itself produced by an industrial process, namely, the heating in kilns (calcining, or more colloquially ‘burning’) of calcium carbonate rock or other carbonate material. Research and literature on lime burning in Scotland, based largely on lime production in Scotland's eastern Central Belt, are dominated by the view that lime burning in draw kilns is the paradigm for Scottish lime production. Other parts of Scotland, however, largely or completely ignored, draw kilns in favour of simpler clamp kilns, even in major industrial sites of lime production. This paper reports our map- and field-based surveys in Scotland's western Central Belt, which clearly point to the enduring importance and almost exclusive use of clamp kilns in that area's historical lime-burning industry.     

The development of core concepts of yield management

Abstract

Yield management offers an Operations Manager a decision support framework for examining the revenue and conservation decision variables that integrate the characteristics of the Heritage Visitor Attraction (HVA) experience. The principles of yield management are drawn from the hotel and airline industries to demonstrate how the problem of fixed capacity is managed in other service sectors. This paper compares these principles against Heritage Visitor Attractions (HVAs), suggesting how they could adopt such concepts. As HVAs serve broader objectives, other than profit maximisation, financial pressures are encouraging the operations manager to devise imaginative and new ways of managing sites. Ten core principles of yield management are suggested that are appropriate to Heritage Visitor Attractions. These core principles are used to evaluate Historic Scotland's and the National Trust for Scotland's approach to revenue management.     

Ermentrude's consecration (866): queen‐making rites and biblical templates for Carolingian fertility

Ermentrude's consecration in 866 has long been interpreted as the quintessential example of queen‐making as fertility rite. More recent scholarship has illuminated how Carolingian queen‐making articulated richer definitions of queenship and reflected wider political roles of queens. This article re‐examines the significance of fertility at Ermentrude's consecration. Close analysis of the introductory address that survives alongside the liturgy for anointing and coronation shows that fertility was an unusually important theme at Ermentrude's consecration – but not simply the queen's fertility. By modelling royal fertility on biblical templates, the consecration communicated not only hopes of future children but also political messages about divine sanction of dynastic continuity and good kingship.     

加拿大人回发展与人回迁移

本文简析加拿大人口发展与人口迁移过程,以及人口迁移对加拿大人口增长、种族、语言构成、人口分布及未来人口增长的影响。     

Gendering the Black Death: Women in Later Medieval England

This review article of Mavis Mate's Daughters, Wives and Widows after the Black Death: Women in Sussex, 1350–1535 (1998) locates Mate's work within the broader context of the debate about changes in women's social position caused by the collapse in population following the Black Death. Was demographic decline accompanied by growing social and economic opportunities for women or should historians emphasise the continuity of female work as low‐skilled, low‐status and low‐paid throughout the late medieval and early modern periods? How did women's role in the labour market affect the age of marriage, fertility rates and long‐term population change? In general, Mate's conclusions offer support to the ‘pessimists’: women's work was vital to the household but economic centrality did not bring a commensurate social power or legal rights and the ideology of female subordination remained firmly in place. The main problem with Mate's case is, inevitably, a lack of evidence, for family structure, for the sexual division of labour and, above all, for affective relations. Nevertheless, this detailed, empirically based local study shows how successfully women's history has moved into the historical mainstream.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.