The Gulf war and the new world order: Economic dimensions of a problematic relationship

This paper investigates the durability of the economic underpinnings of the ‘new world order’ allegedly conceived in the Gulf war. Four substantive arguments are advanced: that the mechanism for allied burden‐sharing born in the Gulf war is inferior to its antecedents and inherently more political; that the historically acute economic vulnerability of America's allies to higher oil prices no longer exists; that the prospects for stable and low oil prices through the long run have not been enhanced; and that significant political opportunities for stability in the oil market are evaporating.     

Not Sustainable: India's Trade and Current Account Deficits

India's trade balance and current account have shown persistent deficits for a major part of its post‐independence period. Since the mid‐2000s, trade deficits have increased perilously, with a sharp rise in both oil and non‐oil imports. India has relied on services exports, remittances and capital inflows to offset trade deficits and sustain the current account deficit. This article examines the sustainability of relying on capital inflows, remittances and services exports to sustain these persistent trade and current account deficits. It argues that all three sources entail elements of fragility. The recent global economic slowdown, economic recessions in the United States and Europe, slow economic recovery, low growth forecasts and possibility of a secular slowdown in the United States and Europe raise questions about whether services exports and remittances can continue to generate sufficient earnings to offset trade deficits. Relying on capital inflows also carries risks of financial fragility, with short‐term capital inflows and external commercial borrowings becoming more prominent in the Indian economy.     

Reform from above: the politics of participation in the oil monarchies

The oil monarchies of the Middle East have usually been portrayed as patriarchal autocracies dominated by traditional tribal families who have come to encompass the modern states, its institutions and economy. The focus of much discussion about these states since the oil boom of the 1970s has been that oil income has provided their tribal elites with an economic boom and an ability to use 'rent' as their primary tool for the pacification of their citizens and for resisting demands for reform. In the light of significant political changes and reforms introduced in the oil monarchies since the late 1990s, it is time to reevaluate our assessment of the oil monarchies' ability to change, to adapt. Empirical data not only supports the view that the oil monarchies are introducing reforms, albeit at a varied speed, but that it is the elites themselves who are emerging as the greatest agents for change.     

WHERE IS AN OIL SHOCK?

Much of the literature examining the effects of oil shocks asks the question “What is an oil shock?” and has concluded that oil‐price increases are asymmetric in their effects on the U.S. economy. That is, sharp increases in oil prices affect economic activity adversely, but sharp decreases in oil prices have no effect. We reconsider the directional symmetry of oil‐price shocks by addressing the question “Where is an oil shock?” the answer to which reveals a great deal of spatial/directional asymmetry across states. Although most states have typical responses to oil‐price shocks—they are affected by positive shocks only—the rest experience either negative shocks only (five states), both positive and negative shocks (five states), or neither shock (five states).     

Oil and the House of Saud: Analysis of Saudi Arabian Oil Policy

This article analyzes the process of how the Government of Saudi Arabia determines oil policy. It focuses on oil production because it accepts that the Saudis are “price takers” rather than “price setters.” It applies economic and political explanations as determinants of how much oil is produced. Two periods of Saudi oil policy are compared—1987–1991 and 1997–2001—using open‐source data from various newspapers and newsletters. The article concludes that oil production in Saudi Arabia is, in large measure, a function of Saudi Arabian estimates of how its oil reserves may provide long‐term revenue and political stability at the risk of short‐term economic gains.     

Shifting State–Business Relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Post‐2014

This study aims to explore how state–business relations in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have been developing following the fall in oil prices in 2014 and the subsequent increased pressure to implement economic reforms. The main argument is that due to a combination of factors, the positions of the established business community vis‐à‐vis the ruling powers in those countries have become weaker. The factors are: 1) economic pressure and necessity to reform since the 2014 decline in oil prices; 2) the generational shift and subsequent centralizing tendencies in the ruling circles in some of the states; and 3) increased geopolitical rivalry and antagonism between the GCC members, including intensified competition for foreign investment and external political support. Meanwhile the governments have acquired more control over commercial activities that used to be the realm of the business elite. Although these changes are happening to a varying extent and at a different pace in each GCC country, the trend is recognizable in all six.     

The Gulf Cooperation Council states: Crystallization of the regional cooperation and alliances amid dwindling resources

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states can be divided into two main camps in terms of hydrocarbon endowment per capita which can partially account for differences in policy directions. Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE (the rich triplet) have small populations while having large hydrocarbon (oil and natural gas) endowments compared to Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE have been effectively using their excess wealth in the form of investment for domestic economic diversification and overseas investments through their sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Therefore, the rich triplet perceives the upcoming threat of decarbonization of the world's energy system lighter than the remaining members of the GCC in view of their prosperity. The expected decrease in oil demand and revenue within the next decade will put further strain on the relationship between these states.     

The Russian social contract and regime legitimacy

The social contract in Soviet and post‐Soviet Russia has concerned not classical political rights but socio‐economic issues. Loyalty is accorded to the powers‐that‐be partly from fear of repression, but also in return for new opportunities of advancement—whether resulting from social upheaval or from educational expansion—and for modest improvements in living standards. The Soviet era ended when such benefits could no longer be delivered, on account of lower oil prices, arms‐race burdens and lagging productivity and innovation. After the turmoil of the 1990s, the contract was re‐established under Putin in the early 2000s. Public opinion accepts relatively authoritarian rule if economic stability appears guaranteed in return. Moreover, world events from 2008 onwards have dampened economic expectations. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the present contract is doubtful, with economic modernization likely to prove elusive in the absence of effective democratic institutions.     

New approaches to volatility: dealing with the 'resource curse' in sub-Saharan Africa

Much attention has been given in recent years to the paradoxical fact that huge flows of money from petroleum appear not to have brought prosperity to the African countries that produce it, but may instead have helped cause poverty, economic decline and conflict. Issues such as human rights abuses near oil installations and environmental damage have often captured the headlines, but these, while important, are peripheral to the main problems: the Dutch Disease, whereby an influx of oil money causes real exchange rates to appreciate, making local industry and agriculture uncompetitive; the damage that petroleum money causes to institutions, incentives and overall governance; and the volatility of oil prices and revenues. This article will look at the volatility problem, and how oil contracts tend to make matters even worse. They are like this for long-established technical, political and historical reasons, and there is consequently a widespread belief in the industry that change is not possible. This defeatist attitude needs to be vigorously challenged.     

Crisis Amid Plenty Revisited: Comments on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil

Two economic geographers specializing in the mineral resources of the former Soviet Union and Russia discuss a paper on Russian oil published in this journal by a seasoned oberserver of this critical subject since the early 1970s. The authors comment on the behavior of Russian oil companies such as Yukos, Russian economic policy in mid-2004, and the role of foreign companies, capital, and advanced technology. Recalling mistaken estimates of declining Soviet oil output in the late 1970s, they outline factors that suggest a somewhat more optimistic outcome could be possible, but note that the drift toward government control, which runs counter to the oil industry's efficiency, is not a positive sign. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18, 27 references.     

Downward hydrocarbon migration predicted from numerical modeling of fluid overpressure in the Paleozoic Anticosti Basin,eastern Canada

The Anticosti Basin is a large Paleozoic basin in eastern Canada where potential source and reservoir rocks have been identified but no economic hydrocarbon reservoirs have been found. Potential source rocks of the Upper Ordovician Macasty Formation overlie carbonates of the Middle Ordovician Mingan Formation, which are underlain by dolostones of the Lower Ordovician Romaine Formation. These carbonates have been subjected to dissolution and dolomitization and are potential hydrocarbon reservoirs. Numerical simulations of fluid‐overpressure development related to sediment compaction and hydrocarbon generation were carried out to investigate whether hydrocarbons generated in the Macasty Formation could migrate downward into the underlying Mingan and Romaine formations. The modeling results indicate that, in the central part of the basin, maximum fluid overpressures developed above the Macasty Formation due to rapid sedimentation. This overpressured core dissipated gradually with time, but the overpressure pattern (i.e. maximum overpressure above source rock) was maintained during the generation of oil and gas. The downward impelling force associated with fluid‐overpressure gradients in the central part of the basin was stronger than the buoyancy force for oil, whereas the buoyancy force for gas and for oil generated in the later stage of the basin is stronger than the overpressure‐related force. Based on these results, it is proposed that oil generated from the Macasty Formation in the central part of the basin first moved downward into the Mingan and Romaine formations, and then migrated laterally up‐dip toward the basin margin, whereas gas throughout the basin and oil generated in the northern part of the basin generally moved upward. Consequently, gas reservoirs are predicted to occur in the upper part of the basin, whereas oil reservoirs are more likely to be found in the strata below the source rocks. Geofluids (2010) 10 , 334–350     

Carceral labour: Offshore work relations,conflicts and local participation in Ghana's oil and gas industry

Local participation is crucial for linking the oil and gas industry to broader economies. Direct employment in the oil and gas industry, albeit often on a limited scale remains critical for the transfer of expertise and know-how in many developing economies. Focusing on the social construction of carcerality – a set of spaces, practices and relationships, the paper examines the carceralities of non-prison places such as offshore oil and gas infrastructures. With emphasis on oil rigs and Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSOs) vessels, the paper highlights the complex labour relations, negotiations and conflicts in offshore working environment and its impacts on local content and participation in Ghana's oil and gas industry. The paper shows that carceral techniques operate to limit the potentiality of career progress. Offshore labour practices and relations show the new kinds of carceral spaces being created through offshore extraction, and sheds light on how these carceral spaces depotentialize the labour force and reinforce global political economic inequalities.     

The Perpetuation of Regime Security in Gulf Cooperation Council States: A Multi‐Lens Approach

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been engaging in diversification efforts, yet the types of efforts suggest that the primary interest is regime security. Regional foreign policy is complex; hence we propose a multi‐lens approach to analyze overlapping and complementary political, economic, and social forces. The international political economy of hydrocarbons demonstrates the similarities among GCC states, regional dynamics illustrate interstate relations and similar patterns, while economic diversification suggests individual state trajectories and comparative and competitive patterns. By outlining the contemporary context for GCC states, we argue that low oil prices, regional dependence on hydrocarbons, and trends in economic diversification efforts signal GCC states' preference to reinforce their rentier systems with alternative state revenue streams. GCC states' diversification into new markets and sectors and use of state‐owned enterprises in microcompetitions indicate a new search for alternative revenue streams and prestige, which in turn are used to assure the perpetuation of regime security. This finding sets trajectories and implications for the region, specifically economic stagnation and supplementary diversification processes.     

‘What They Need is Management’: American NGOs,the Second Seven Year Plan and Economic Development in Iran, 1954–1963

Following the August 1953 coup d'etat, the government of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in Iran embarked upon an economic development program. While financial backing for the program came from the Anglo-American oil companies running Iran's oil industry, Iran's semi-independent Plan Organization and its administrator Abu'l-?asan Ebtehāj turned to American non-governmental organizations for administrative expertise, in order to turn Iran's oil power into economic improvements and a basis for the regime's lasting stability. The work of these organizations was hampered by internal disagreements and divisions, discontent among Iranians over the foreign infiltration of their development program, and skepticism from the US government regarding the capacity of Iran to accomplish an integrated development effort on such a scale. Such feelings were influenced by cultural prejudices and perceptions of Iranians as corrupt and incompetent. Ultimately American non-government organizations were pushed out by the shah who seized control over Iran's development during the 1963 White Revolution. The course of Iran's Second Seven Year Plan illustrate how Western technical and administrative ‘know-how’ were tied to the efforts harnessing new oil wealth, and how the relationship between American and Iranian developmentalists was undone by politics, prejudice and opposing view of how progress could come from petroleum.     

The 'greening' of global project financing: the case of the Sakhalin-II offshore oil and gas project

This article responds to a plea for economic geographers to play greater attention to the world's resource peripheries. The article presents a detailed case study of oil and gas development offshore of Sakhalin in the Russian Far East. The study serves to illustrate the complexity of resource peripheries and to demonstrate how a critical approach to resource geographies aids economic geographic theorization of globalization. The case study focuses on how the 'greening' of global project financing has created a means by which environmental non-governmental organizations hold the international oil companies to account. The article describes the transnational advocacy network that has developed to protest against the Sakhalin-II project. The key issues are identified and the response of the operator, Sakhalin Energy, is considered. Finally, the recent actions of the Russian Government in relation to the environmental impacts of the Sakhalin-II project are examined. The article concludes by assessing the ways in which the Sakhalin case demonstrates the complex processes that construct resource peripheries and how such analyses contribute to the development of a truly global economic geography. Le 'verdissement' du financement de projets à     

The Social and Economic Complexity of Ancient Jerusalem as Seen Through Choices in Lighting Oils

This paper presents and discusses the results of residue analysis conducted on 78 ceramic lamps found in archaeological excavations in ancient Jerusalem, in an attempt to identify the types of oils used and the reasons for their preferential choice. The oil lamps chosen for the study were taken from a variety of contexts, which represent the different periods during which Jerusalem was settled and the different sectors of the city. The results of the study show that even the most mundane activity of lighting using oil held within it social and economic choices, as mirrored in the different excavation areas.     

Survey work in Mesopotamia during the war

The advent of North Sea oil transformed the relatively depressed Aberdeen economy through inward investment and employment opportunities in the oil supply industry. As a consequence of the fall in oil prices in 1985–86, Aberdeen is faced with economic uncertainty, and this has prompted responses by the local planning authority and the private sector.     

The politics of water security in southern Saskatchewan

This paper examines long-term water and resource management in Saskatchewan. Agriculture has long sustained Saskatchewan's economy, but the province experienced a resource boom in oil and potash in the 2008–2015 time period. What potential water-related risks are posed by oil and potash? And is the province able to balance the short-term economic gains of these developments with the long-term goal of water security? The research is based on interviews with policy elites in the province of Saskatchewan and argues that four factors explain why the government continues to favour industry over water security: low-issue salience, economic and political interest, ideology, and political culture.     

国际油价波动对日本经济均衡的影响

2005年以来,国际原油价格剧烈震荡,除实体经济层面的供求因素外,能源作为金融商品的虚拟经济属性被放大,预期、投机、突发事件、汇率波动因素等都可能成为引燃油价波动的导火索。新的油价变动特点,使日本更加难以保持经济的内外均衡。从内部看,企业、行业间的收入分配效应分散了油价上涨的通货膨胀效果,具有技术垄断优势、善于利用金融工具避险及有效采取能源分散化和节能措施的企业与行业受油价波动的冲击更小。从外部看,进口成本增加和出口成本转嫁不完全引起了日本贸易条件恶化;石油美元通过贸易渠道和资本渠道的回流,对日本的国际收支产生一定影响;日元升值因素一定程度上缓和了高油价的冲击。日本政府、企业、居民的不懈努力创造了日本经济超低能耗的奇迹,这个奇迹将日本抵御油价波动的能力变成现实。．