An alternative classification of Australian elections

Attempts have been made to apply to Australia the classification of elections developed by researchers at the University of Michigan. However, the American model is not suitable for Australian elections on a number of grounds. An alternative classification of Australian elections could be made by modifying the basic scheme developed for New Zealand elections.     

Forecasting Australian elections: 1993, and all that

The link between economic conditions and election outcomes is a pillar of social science. Voters prefer ‘better times’ to worse and reward or punish incumbents accordingly. We investigate the extent to which this truism holds in the Australian context, with particular emphasis on the 1993 result. While Australian election outcomes are generally not well predicted by prevailing economic conditions, we are impressed by the extent to which the 1993 election outcome is at odds with the state of the economy. In particular, we find Labor performed up to five percentage points better than expected in 1993, making this result one of the most exceptional election results ever observed in Australia. The sizeable electoral penalty typically accompanying large increases in unemployment was effectively nullified in 1993. We accurately predict the 1993 result (ex post) only if unemployment is considered electorally irrelevant. We conclude by suggesting a research agenda for better understanding the link between economic context and election outcomes in the Australian setting.     

Australian welfare state expenditure revisited: Some implications for change

This article seeks to explore the reasons why Australia, in the period 1965–84, manifested markedly lower levels of income maintenance expenditure than most other OECD nations. A pooled cross‐section research design is utilized to bring within the scope of a single model the wide range of institutional, demographic, economic and political factors that have been hypothesized to influence income maintenance transfers. Having developed such a model, the article examines some of its implications for proposed welfare cut‐backs and reform in Australia and the OECD nations generally.     

State budget outcomes and Australian state politics revisited: The impact of parties

This research note reviews work by Gerritscn on budget outputs in Australian States, and more specifically on the explanatory significance of Labor and non‐Labor parties in office. It also extends his work by introducing a comparative dimension across time. This consists of comparison of the findings for the period Gerritsen saidied (1979/80–1982/83) with a later period (1985/86–1987/88) to assess the impact of partisan change in Slate governments on their relative budget efforts. The findings offer more support for the partisanship hypothesis than Gerritsen's allowed, by virtue of the findings for Western Australia and Tasmania. It concludes that though budget efforts are structured by a number of factors, partisanship nevertheless appears a potent explanatory variable.     

Thailand-Four elections and a coup

Thailand's political turmoil, evident after the December 2007 elections, is more than the sparks of ordinary conflict between rival elites seeking access to state power. The struggle has become not just about state capture, but also about who gets to determine the most fundamental questions relating to political order – the rules of the game. This article offers a critical interpretation of a decade of Thai politics, with the focus on the 2007 election and its aftermath. It examines debates about democracy, considers the position of the Thai monarchy and reflects on the regional implications of the Thai crisis.

     

Sources of electoral support for the Australian democrats in the house of representatives and Senate elections of 1990 and 1993: A comparative analysis

Election to the Australian Senate under proportional voting and statewide quotas gives to minor parties of the political centre a chance to win parliamentary representation otherwise denied them in the single member constituency‐based House of Representatives. Focusing on the Australian Democrats, vote splitting in the context of ? consistently higher levels of support for the Democrats in the upper house provides some evidence of differences among sources of electoral support between House and Senate, but within a context of general similarity of voter behaviour. Findings support a view that, as a party of ‘concerns’ rather than ideology, with a highly unstable support base, the future of the Democrats as other than a focus for protest must remain in doubt.     

On elections,voting and participation:

To summarise, there were five interesting features of the election: (i) the size of the first preference movement from the major parties to the Australian Democrats; (ii) the unexpected lack of any significant swing to Labor in the two‐party preferred vote; (iii) the notable uniformity of the results from state to state; (iv) such swing to Labor as did occur was mainly in seats already held by Labor and in urban areas; and (v) the results demonstrate that the electoral boundaries still contain a bias against Labor.     

The municipal elections of March 2001

This article analyses Algeria's ongoing 'civil war' through the lens of contemporary Algerian theatre. Specifically, it examines the relationship between Algeria's unsuccessful transition to democratic, religious pluralism and Alek Baylee Toumi's 1996 play, Madah-Sartre . Among the prominent themes covered are the issues of gender equality as represented in the efforts of Khalida Messaoudi (Toumi's sister) to resist the 1984 Algerian Family Code; the rise of Islamic radicalism; the legacy of the philosophy of Jean-Paul Sartre and Simone de Beauvoir within contemporary Algerian intellectual and political communities; the problem of Islamic and state-sponsored terrorism; and the effects of the Islamic radicals' policies of assassinating Algerian intellectuals on the Algerian community in the diaspora.     

The 2013 elections and the Italian political system

The February 2013 Italian general elections were characterized by the highest volatility to date. Although, thanks to the majority bonus, the Partito Democratico (Democratic Party) obtained the absolute majority of seats in the House of Deputies, it could not be considered the winner of the elections. Lacking a majority in the Senate, it was obliged to form a government with Silvio Berlusconi's party and with the rather small number of parliamentarians elected in former Prime Minister Mario Monti's list. In spite of his last-minute surge, Berlusconi was a clear loser, having lost almost six million votes in respect of his 2008 victory. Comedian Beppe Grillo's Movimento Cinque Stelle (Five Stars Movement) received the highest-ever number of votes for a new entry into any post-war European general election. Unwilling to play the coalitional game and made up of inexperienced and incompetent parliamentarians, Grillo's party has remained isolated and ineffective. The present Italian party system consists of three poles, the Movimento Cinque Stelle playing the role of anti-system party. Institutional reforms and especially reform of the electoral system, which has been struck down by the Constitutional Court, are again the focus of debate. Restructuring of the Italian political system is yet to come.     

The Italian national elections of 13 May 2001

As expected and long predicted by all the surveys, Silvio Berlusconi's Casa delle LibertÀ won the Italian national elections of 13 May 2001. The four coalition partners had significantly different results. Forza Italia became the largest Italian party while both the National Alliance and the White Flower lost votes but kept almost the same number of seats as in 1996, and were anyway happy to return to the government. The Northern League shared this kind of success, but lost heavily in terms of votes – falling below the 4 per cent threshold – and seats. In spite of its five years of good government, the Olive Tree/Centre-Left coalition was defeated. This article argues that the defeat was due to three major factors. First, the Olive Tree had broken its promise of one government, one Prime Minister, one programme of reforms. Second, it forfeited the advantage of incumbency by choosing Francesco Rutelli as its prime ministerial candidate, using an opaque procedure. Third, because of the differences of opinion among the various partners, the Olive Tree/Centre-Left could not capitalize either on its systemic reforms, that is joining the Euro and the reconstruction of a viable economic system, or on its piecemeal reforms. The list led by Rutelli, the Daisy, did relatively well. The real losers were the Left Democrats who, because of their organizational decline and political confusion, plummeted to their lowest percentage ever. Now Berlusconi has the chance to prove that he can not only win the elections, but also, in spite of his immense conflict of interests, govern the country. Come atteso e da lungo tempo previsto da tutti i sondaggi, la Casa delle LibertÀ di Silvio Berlusconi ha vinto le elezioni italiane del 13 maggio 2001. I suoi quattro alleati hanno ottenuto risultati diversi. Forza Italia è diventata il più forte partito italiano, mentre sia Alleanza Nazionale che il Biancofiore hanno perduto voti, pur mantenendo all'incirca lo stesso numero di seggi rispetto al 1996, ma sono comunque felici di ritornare al governo. La Lega Nord è egualmente soddisfatta per questo, nonostante abbia perso pesantemente in termini di seggi e di voti, non raggiungendo la soglia del 4 per cento. Questo articolo indica come, nonostante i suoi cinque anni di buon governo, la coalizione Ulivo/centro-sinistra sia stata sconfitta per tre fondamentali fattori. Primo, l'Ulivo non ha saputo mantenere le promesse fatte in campagna elettorale: un governo unico e un Primo ministro per tutto il corso della legislatura, e un programma di riforme. Secondo, ha sciupato il vantaggio derivante dall'essere il governo in carica scegliendo in maniera opaca il suo candidato alla presidenza del Consiglio Francesco Rutelli. Terzo, a causa delle differenze di opinione fra i diversi alleati, l'Ulivo/centro-sinistra non ha saputo sfruttare nè le sue riforme sistemiche, come la partecipazione italiana nell'Euro e il risanamento economico, né le riforme specifiche. La Margherita, lista guidata da Rutelli, ha avuto un buon successo, mentre i Democratici di Sinistra sono i veri perdenti poichè, in preda a confusione politica e organizzativa, sono piombati al loro pi basso livello percentuale di sempre. Adesso, Berlusconi ha la possibilitÀ di provare che non è soltanto capace di vincere le elezioni, ma anche, nonostante l'immenso conflitto di interessi determinato dalla sua posizione imprenditoriale, di governare il paese.