School Choice as a Latent Variable: Estimating the “Complier Average Causal Effect” of Vouchers in Charlotte

Randomized field trials of school voucher policy interventions face major statistical hurdles in the measurement of a voucher effect on student achievement. Selection bias undermines the benefits of randomization when the treatment, a random offer of a voucher, is declined by participants who systematically differ from those who accept. This article argues that the complier average causal effect (CACE) is the parameter of interest in voucher evaluations. As an example, the CACE is estimated using data from a small, one‐year field trial of vouchers in Charlotte, NC. In this estimation, voucher impacts in Charlotte are positive, but appear to be moderated by the probability of compliance. For math achievement, maximum likelihood CACE estimates are smaller and insignificant compared to intention to treat and instrumental variable estimates of mean treatment effects.     

Learning from Schools: School Choice,Political Learning,and Policy Feedback

This article investigates the policy feedback and political learning effects of school vouchers. Of particular interest is how market‐based policies affect the likelihood that program participants will connect their experiences with the policy to the government. I examine parent survey data from an evaluation of the Milwaukee school voucher program. I find that voucher parents are more likely than public school parents to perceive that the government has influenced their child's schooling and to believe that their experiences with their child's school have taught them about how government works. Further, voucher parents report that their experiences with the policy have made them more politically active. While majorities of voucher and public school parents support increased public school expenditures, there is some evidence that school vouchers may decrease support for public schools.     

A Behavioral Theory of Policy Feedback in Tobacco Control: Evidence From a Difference‐In‐Difference‐In‐Difference Study

Public policy scholars argue that in highly tangible policies, such as tobacco control, the public learns from the direct experience of the beneficial effects of the policy. Empirical evidence supports this argument, suggesting that in the United States the introduction of tobacco control measures makes people more inclined to further regulation. By relying on a set of cases which allows testing the effects of the introduction of tobacco control measures across European countries on a series of relevant variables, this study confirms that the introduction of tobacco control measures makes the public more inclined to further regulation. Yet, when the effects of these policies are disaggregated between smokers and nonsmokers, results show that these positive effects are driven by smokers. This puzzle suggests that different effects than mass attitudinal policy feedback effects, driven by learning from direct experience, might explain the positive reaction to tobacco control. This study puts forward a behavioral theory of policy feedback, which suggests that smokers react positively to the introduction of tobacco control measures because they see these measures as commitment devices, which can help them quit smoking. Evidence for this argument is found by demonstrating that the introduction of tobacco control measures increases smokers’ welfare.     

Policy of Delay: Evidence from a Bayesian Analysis of Metropolitan Land‐Use Choices

Do local policymakers strategically use delay in permitting development to forestall the growth machine? The mantras of smart growth and sustainable development assume local governments can balance the competing values of economic development, ecology, and equity interests in a community. We employ a political market framework to explain differences in local government land use decisions. This framework conceptualizes policy choices as resulting from the interplay between the aggregate policy demand by residents, developers, and environmental interests and the aggregate supply by government authorities. Delays can be imposed strategically through processes of development approval by city governments where industry strength and form of government vary within county‐level service‐delivery fragmentation. We utilize novel Bayesian multilevel modelling of data collected from 2007 and 2015 surveys of Florida city planners and find strong institutional effects and multilevel relationships.     

The Study of Local Public Economies: Multi‐organizational,Multi‐level Institutional Analysis and Development

One important extension of the IAD framework has been to the study of local public economies. These are multi‐organizational, multi‐level arrangements defined as the set of governmental jurisdictions, public and nonprofit agencies, and private firms that interact in various patterns to provide and produce public goods and services within a specific locality or region. Commonly, the localities or regions studied from this perspective have been U.S. metropolitan areas, often defined as a central city and its surrounding or adjoining county. Localities can be delineated, however, on various terms, and in the IAD framework, it is the geo‐physical nature of a locality that, in substantial part, drives the analysis. One of the strengths of the approach is its capacity to explain local variations in public organization as a function of the geo‐physical diversity of localities, while at the same time developing empirical generalizations and normative principles that apply across diverse regions. What, for example, might the organization and governance of a complex metropolitan area have in common with the organization and governance of a complex protected area, such as the greater Yellowstone eco‐region or the Adirondack Park? Construing both sorts of regions as local public economies can enhance our overall understanding of public organization at the same time that it permits a more nuanced understanding of diverse localities. Such work contributes to the ongoing IAD project of “understanding institutional diversity.”     

Strategies of Policy Advocacy Organizations and Their Theoretical Affinities: Evidence from Q‐Methodology

Policy advocacy is an increasingly important function for many nonprofit organizations, yet their advocacy activities have largely escaped theoretical grounding. The literature on nonprofits has described how they engage in policy advocacy, without linking them to theories of policy change. The policy studies literature, on the other hand, has explained how various forms of influence result in policy change, but has largely ignored organizational perspectives on those processes. These two literatures remain largely disconnected. Drawing upon interviews with a purposive sample of policy advocacy directors at 31 nonprofit organizations, this study applies Q‐methodology to identify and describe six distinct policy advocacy strategies employed by the organizations, and their resonant theoretical views of policy processes. These findings suggest strategic approaches for nonprofits seeking to influence policy processes. They also enhance the academic literature on policy processes by adding the advocates’ views and expectations. Implications for further research are also identified.     

圆明园新证——乾隆朝圆明园全图的发现与研究

故宫博物院图书馆藏1704号圆明园地盘图是迄今仅见的唯一一张完整记录乾隆朝圆明园盛况的绝世孤本,也是现存圆明园图档中绘制年代最早、使用时间最长、表现内容最丰富、记载变化最全面的国宝级珍贵档案。该图极有可能是清代著名样式雷家族的第三代传人——雷声澂执掌清宫样式房楠木作事务之时,于乾隆四十四年(1779)前后绘制的圆明园本部平面。此后该图一直作为档案图纸使用达半个多世纪之久,几乎囊括了一部全盛时期圆明园的变迁史,是研究圆明园在乾隆、嘉庆、道光三朝发展变化的最权威、最完整的档案记录。     

Changes in the Abundance and Diversity of Proteaceae in South‐western Australia: a Review of an Integrated Palaeoenvironmental Study

South‐western Australia is a globally significant hotspot of Proteaceae diversity. This review reports on changes in the abundance and diversity of Proteaceae in south‐western Australia. Using palynology, the data were obtained from three sediment sequences from the Eocene, Pliocene and Holocene, as well as a modern pollen rain study, in the context of a vegetation history framework. The total percentages of Proteaceae pollen in pollen counts indicate that the number of Proteaceae in the vegetation are highest at present, slightly lower, yet still high in the Eocene, reduced by the Pliocene and lowest in the Holocene. It was found that Proteaceous genera can contribute up to 50% of the total modern pollen rain. Sediment from Lake Lefroy showed Nothofagus‐dominated rainforest occurred in the Middle to Late Eocene. Proteaceae species were at least as diverse as today, contributing up to a maximum of 42% of the total pollen rain, and varying across small lateral distances. A laminated Pliocene age sequence from Yallalie confirmed other studies that south‐western Australia was covered by a rich vegetation mosaic consisting of heath and wet rainforest elements. Proteaceae species were a consistent component of the counts, although diversity and abundance (maximum 5%) were low. A Holocene record from Two Mile Lake, near the Stirling Range, recorded little environmental change. Proteaceae species were noted in low abundance, at a maximum of 3.5% of the total pollen count. It is likely that both changing pollination mechanisms and changes in associated vegetation are important in determining the dispersal of Proteaceous pollen.