Postmaterialist and Economic Voting in Australia, 1990-98

Recent research in Australian sociology and political science has debated the extent to which postmaterialist values and economic self-interest shape voting in federal elections. Some researchers have argued that postmaterialist values have partly displaced materialist concerns with physical security and economic well-being in Australian public life. This displacement, coupled with the adoption by major political parties of postmaterialist 'quality of life' issues such as the environment, has meant that voting in Australia has come to be more dependent on postmaterialist values than on perceptions of economic interest. Other research, however, has found no relationship between postmaterialist values and voting behaviour, while economic evaluations remain a strong determinant of voting behaviour. Part of the disagreement reflects methodological differences in the research. But different methodological problems compromise each of the previous studies. In this paper we use data from the 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1998 Australian Election Studies to investigate postmaterialist and economic voting in the Commonwealth House of Representatives and the Senate. Using various statistical methods, we first explore bivariate relationships between key variables and then use multivariate models of postmaterialist and economic voting to adjudicate between the contending positions.     

Institutionally Induced Pendulum? An Assessment of State-level Influences on Post-war Australian Federal Voting

The extent of State-level influences on federal voting behaviour in Australia has been debated for many years. In this paper, I extend and improve on previous research by using the most advanced techniques (multilevel modelling) available for analysing survey data in this context, and present results based on an extensive investigation of post-war Australian elections. The results show conclusively that the overall extent of measurable State-level effects on federal voting over the period is relatively very small, despite the institutional significance of the States. In an attempt to reconcile these two facts, I therefore propose an institutional explanation of the small extent of State-level effects. I argue that the representation entitlements of the States in the House of Representatives would tend to result in the overall extent of State-level effects being relatively small because they introduce a self-correcting 'pendulum' element into party competition. I investigate some hypotheses that follow from this argument, demonstrate that the evidence from the multilevel modelling is consistent with these hypotheses, and conclude that this institutional element is a significant part of the explanation of the apparent unimportance of State-level influences.     

The 1949 federal election: A reinterpretation

The 1949 federal election in Australia is widely regarded as one of Australia's most significant elections. This election ended eight years of ALP government and began a long period of unbroken rule by Liberal‐Country Party governments. Surprisingly, very little has been written about the 1949 election although various authors have addressed themselves to the question of why the Chifley government lost in December 1949. The orthodox interpretation is that Chifley's defeat in 1949 was to do with the issues of ‘bank nationalisation’ and ‘communism’. In this article, I offer a reinterpretation of the connection between political issues and voting behaviour in the 1949 election. Following the theory of Fiorina that voters tend to make their decision on the basis of how a party fares in handling problems in the past, I argue that the Australian electorate in 1949 responded negatively to Chifley's handling of the general economy and his policies on two crises in 1949 — the national coal strike and the dollar crisis.     

The changing structural base of Australian politics since 1946

There has been a continuing debate in Australia about the declining political importance of traditional social cleavages, such as class and religion, since the end of the Second World War. While some scholars have argued that class has declined in political importance, others have presented contrary evidence. In this paper, we eliminate some substantive and methodological problems that have clouded this debate and use multivariate analysis to re‐assess the evidence for the decline of traditional cleavages across class and religious boundaries in Australia. Our results show that there was no decline in class voting in Australia until after the middle of the 1960s. The decline since then has been less steep than others have suggested. On the other hand, the traditional cleavage between Catholics and Protestants weakened significantly during the same period, as did Labor's disadvantage among women. Strong cohort effects may have exaggerated the apparent decline in class voting, which, while weaker in the 1980s than it was in the 1940s and 1960s, remains the strongest structural cleavage in Australian politics.     

Attitudes Towards Divided Government and Ticket-splitting in Australia and the United States

Divided party government has become a frequent occurrence in both the United States and Australia in recent years. In the United States, Morris Fiorina has argued that this result is intentional on the part of the voters, who do not fully trust either party to govern by itself. We test this theory in both the United States and Australia by comparing the voting patterns of those who prefer divided versus united party government. It is hypothesised that Fiorina's theory will actually work better in Australia than in the United States, due to the presence of a strong party system as well as a voting system for the Australian Senate that facilitates strategic voting on behalf of small parties. Indeed, near-identical logistic regression models demonstrate that Australians' attitudes about divided government are a very significant predictor of straight-ticket voting even when a host of other factors is controlled for, whereas in the United States such attitudes are insignificant.     

'Walking the walk and talking the talk': Bodies,conversation, gender and power in higher education in England

Combinations of speaking, listening and bodily behaviour have been neglected in accounts of the operation of power. Although often described as fluid and interactionally produced, power has been the subject of few empirically based analyses at micro-interactional scales. Drawing on interviews with undergraduates and extracts from teaching interactions at higher education institutions in England, this article focuses on talk as a situated practice. It describes how verbal and bodily behaviours together are fundamentally involved in the enactment of instructor and student roles and power relations, and the collective interactional (re)production of teaching spaces. It discusses two broad types of teaching interaction in terms of gendered differences in the structure of talk, drawing attention to how these are shaped by differences in how instructors enact power. I suggest that men may routinely engage in conversations with 'feminine' structures in teaching spaces without this compromising heterosexual masculinity, and present reasons why it may be more likely that women be problematized for using 'masculine' verbal styles. I also argue that rather than simply being inscribed on to instructors' bodies in ways that accord with the hegemonic discourses of gender, authority and respect have to continually be earned from students, and verbal behaviour is deeply involved in this process. It is not enough to 'walk the walk', instructors must also 'talk the talk', in ways that students deem legitimate.     

The Dimensions of Politics and Voter Behaviour in Preferential Systems: The Case of Australia

This project examines the dimensions of politics and voter preferences in Australia. Evidence from an empirical spatial analysis provides that Australian parties and voters are organised along a unidimensional socioeconomic continuum. Numerous individual-level factors, including party identification, ideology and a host of demographic and opinion variables, predict voters' positions along the continuum. Moreover, voter locations are shown to relate strongly to vote choice, demonstrating the importance of socioeconomic positions to voter behaviour in Australia. Finally, because this approach allows for a full examination of voter preference orderings, it is important to the study of voting behaviour and representation under preferential electoral institutions in Australia and elsewhere.     

Compulsory Voting: Residual Problems and Potential Solutions

The state-enforced compulsion to vote can be defended as a reasonable imposition on individual autonomy. This article moves on from this position to examine a number of residual problems with Australia's compulsory voting arrangements. While maintaining a commitment to the compulsory voting system, I suggest that, in order to protect the reputation of the practice and preserve the norm of universal participation, some reforms may be necessary. While the argument that it is reasonable to compel people to vote accepts that the state can legitimately penalise avoidance, I have doubts about the propriety of some current and past practices, specifically those relating to the legal consequences of avoidance and the public promotion of avoidance. One recommendation allows genuine 'conscientious objectors' to apply for exemption provided they meet a number of conditions. I also make suggestions that address the complaint that compulsion limits democratic choice.     

Queering the pitch: race,class, gender and nation in the Indo-Australian encounter

Recent cricket contests between Australia and India offer a fascinating theatre to examine issues of race, class, nation, and gender. I chart their protean character as they are performed and deployed in these encounters. Instead of exploring relations between already extant and singular entities called “India” or “Australia,” it might be more useful to see the performative practices of those situated at different loci of enunciation by which those categories are momentarily congealed and given meaning or content. While there is a surfeit of charged cricketing encounters between the two nations, I focus on two in this essay: (a) Rahul Dravid's speech at the annual Bradman Oration in 20111, and (b) what has come to be called ‘Monkeygate’ – a bitter and acrimonious cricket test match between India and Australia in 2007 played in Sydney.     

The ‘hip pocket nerve’ and electoral volatility in Australia and Great Britain

Over the course of the post‐war period, Australian voting behaviour has manifested a marked degree of aggregate stability, whereas British voting patterns have become increasingly volatile. Since class voting has declined at a similar rate in both countries, it cannot explain this divergence. This article suggests that the explanation is to be found in the differential electoral impact of the two countries' macroeconomic performance in this period. Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, the state of the economy, as measured by the rates of inflation and unemployment, is shown to have been a less influential force in Australian general elections than in British ones. The greater aggregate volatility in Britain, in other words, would seem to reflect‐the electorate's greater sensitivity to its ‘hip pocket nerve’, especially when it is touched by inflation. Why this same relationship does not characterize Australian commonwealth elections can be speculated upon, but is a puzzle that remains to be solved.     

Canada's history wars: indigenous genocide and public memory in the United States,Australia and Canada

In this article, I explore the slow development of a national debate in Canada about genocide in the Indian residential schools, which I compare to earlier ‘history wars’ in Australia and the United States. In the first section I begin with a brief introduction to the history of the IRS system and some of its legacies, as well as attempts at redress. These include financial compensation through the 2006 IRS Settlement Agreement, an official apology and the creation of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), which has been a nodal point for articulating claims of genocide. I follow this in the second section with an analysis of the history wars in the United States and Australia over indigenous genocide, before engaging in the third section with debates about genocide in Canada. Overt debates about genocide have been relatively slow in developing, in part because of the creation of a TRC, mandated with collecting the ‘truth’ about the IRS system while similarly engaging in ‘reconciliation’ (a contested term) with settler Canadians. While Canada's history wars may seem slow in getting off the ground, the TRC's more ‘balanced’ approach and wide-ranging engagement with non-Aboriginal societal actors may have a greater effect in stimulating national awareness than in the United States and Australia.     

Clientelism,Political Culture and Ethnic Politics in Australia

The discussion of political culture in Australia that exists focuses on the supposedly traditional traits of egalitarianism, utilitarianism, conformism, materialism and so on. While not wishing to deny the British influence on political institutions in Australia, to think that the massive nature of non-British postwar migration has not influenced political culture in Australia is not only naive but incorrect. In not paying attention to the impact of immigrants from NESB, political cultures and practices such as clientelism have not been the subject of Australian political discussion. Where ethnic participation in the political system has been examined, some have argued that it is based on corruption and has led political actors to deviate from national political and cultural norms. This paper argues that clientelism can provide a more useful and positive framework for understanding ethnic politics in Australia. After examining various views on political culture and ethnicity in Australia, this paper summarises some of the key points of recent approaches to clientelism. It suggests that clientelism has a positive face, especially as a form of representation for minority groups such as immigrants from NESB. The second section then describes the key features of clientelism in the Australian 'ethnic electorate'. It has evolved in ethnic electorates because of the process of ethnic community formation, the nature of case-work in ethnic electorates and the ability and willingness of political actors and parties to adapt their style to suit the environment.     

The government,the opposition and the President of the Republic under Berlusconi

This article assesses the behaviour of three actors, the government, the opposition and the President of the Republic, in the first two years of Berlusconi's government. Though solidly controlled by Berlusconi, his government has already had to replace two important ministers and some under-secretaries and has often behaved like a traditional coalition government. Moreover, it has so far achieved virtually none of the promises made in the 'Contract with the Italians'. It is feebly challenged by a divided opposition, unorganized, leaderless, unable to create a shadow government and just waiting for Romano Prodi's return from Brussels. Precisely because of its weakness, the opposition has often tried to rely on the President of the Republic as a check on Berlusconi's exorbitant power. Indeed, Ciampi has intervened in a more or less controversial way in the drafting of some government bills and has sent a solemn message to parliament asking for a more impartial and pluralist information system; to no avail. However, Ciampi's role and behaviour suggest that the problem of the powers of the President of the Republic has not been solved. Berlusconi's own preference for a popularly elected president and his unsolved conflict of interests indicate that the political and institutional transition in Italy is not yet over.     

Compulsory voting and right-wing populism: mobilisation,representation and socioeconomic inequalities

ABSTRACT

When all citizens vote, the influence of radical parties decreases. Despite this being a central justification for compulsory voting in the past, it has been absent from contemporary debates. I examine the normative and empirical premises of the ‘moderation thesis’ in relation to radical right-wing populist parties today and suggest that, under certain conditions, compulsory voting can limit these parties’ appeal. First, it replaces the excessive mobilisation of discontented voters with a more universal mobilisation. Second, it addresses the problem of underrepresentation offering a more pluralist type of representation than the populist one. And third, it reverses socioeconomic inequalities that drive support for populism through the egalitarian effects that compulsory voting has on policymaking. My central thesis is this: because compulsory voting embodies inclusivist, pluralist and egalitarian values, it addresses some of the grievances that drive support for right-wing populist parties without carrying the same normative costs as populism.     

How Do Unionists Vote? Estimating the Causal Impact of Union Membership on Voting Behaviour from 1966 to 2004

This paper explores the voting patterns of trade union members in Australian elections conducted between 1966 and 2004 and finds that, on average, 63% of trade union members vote for the Australian Labor Party. Despite the fact that union membership declined from around half of the workforce in the early 1980s to a quarter of the workforce in the early 2000s, unionists have not become more pro-Labor. Analysing unionists' voting behaviour by gender, it is found that male unionists were more pro-Labor than female unionists in the 1960s, but that the reverse is true today. Recognising that union membership may be endogenous with respect to political ideology, this study instruments for union membership and concludes that the observed association between union membership and voting reflects a causal relationship.     

Degrading and Managing Risk: Assessing Australia's Counter-Terrorist Strategy

Given the occasionally vexatious nature of academic discussion in Australia on the subject of terrorism, it is surprising that so little has been written regarding Australia's approach to countering terrorism. This gap in the literature stands in marked contrast to the highly charged debate over the direction of terrorism studies in this country. In seeking to fill this lacuna, the article critically examines the three essential pillars of Australia's counter-terrorism strategy that have evolved since 2001: domestic legislation, intelligence, and regional assistance and engagement. I argue that Australia's counter-terrorist strategy exhibits greater cohesion than many of the critics have been willing to acknowledge. However, I also argue that there remain significant flaws in the Howard government's approach, particularly as it relates to a lack of transparency in justifying new anti-terrorism legislation and Australia's unswerving support for a US global counter-terrorism strategy that has lost its way since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.     

Parched and impatient: Political engagement after drought

How does local experience of climate change alter voters' policy preferences and voting decisions? After exposure to a climate disaster, voters may elect politicians prioritising robust disaster prevention policies, or conversely, immediate economic relief. In turn, elected representatives will either mitigate or exacerbate the severity of future climate events. In this study, I leverage a climate event with a high degree of local geographic variation – a pre-election drought in Australia – to see how it shaped political beliefs and behaviours in 2019. Using a longitudinal panel survey, I show that voters in drought-exposed areas increasingly prioritised individual economic security, rather than broader climate-mitigation policies. Moreover, I find that regional micro-parties in drought-affected regions gained vote share. In other words, voters at the front-lines of climate change sought out immediate and local economic relief. Unless local politicians can propose climate policies with short-term economic benefits, disasters may limit governments' capacities to pursue long-term climate resilience.     

Australia's ‘special strategic relationship’ with Japan: another ‘China choice’?

In July 2014, Australia's new Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, and his Japanese counterpart, Shinzō Abe, elevated the status of bilateral ties to a ‘special strategic relationship'. Both sides also agreed on intensifying their defence technology cooperation, including in the submarine space. As well, Prime Minister Abbott called Australia a ‘strong ally’ of Japan. Yet, the prospect of a further strengthening of Australia–Japan defence relations has led to criticism by Australian strategic commentators. In particular, critics argue that closer strategic relations with Japan could damage Australia's ties with a rising China. In a worst-case scenario, Australia might even become ‘entrapped’ in a Sino-Japanese conflict. However, this argues that a closer defence relationship is in Australia's strategic interests in the face of China's increasing challenge to the rules-based order in the region. China's uncompromising position in the South China Sea and its more assertive behaviour have led to a greater congruence of threat and risk assessment between Australia and Japan. Indeed, Australia and Japan are increasingly facing a security dilemma vis-à-vis China, albeit to varying degrees. Therefore, for Australia, promoting Japan's ‘security normalisation’ contributes to regional stability. As well, the article points out that closer strategic ties with Japan do not automatically come at the expense of Sino-Australia relations. China's leverage to ‘punish’ Australia for unwanted strategic behaviour is limited, and concerns about ‘entrapment’ in a Sino-Japanese war are exaggerated. However, the more China exerts coercive diplomacy, the closer Australia–Japan defence relations are likely to become.     

A special responsibility to protect: the UK,Australia and the rise of Islamic State

In the summer of 2014 Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) emerged as a threat to the Iraqi people. This article asks whether the UK and Australia had a ‘special’ responsibility to protect (R2P) those being threatened. It focuses on two middle‐ranking powers (as opposed to the US) in order to highlight the significance of special responsibilities that flow only from the principle of reparation rather than capability. The article contends that despite casting their response in terms of a general responsibility, the UK and Australia did indeed bear a special responsibility based on this principle. Rather than making the argument that the 2003 coalition that invaded Iraq created ISIS, it is argued that it is the vulnerable position in which Iraqis were placed as a consequence of the invasion that grounds the UK and Australia's special responsibility to protect. The article addresses the claim that the UK and Australia were not culpable because they did not act negligently or recklessly in 2003 by drawing on Tony Honoré's concept of ‘outcome responsibility’. The finding of a special responsibility is significant because it is often thought of as being more demanding than a general responsibility. In this context, the article further argues that the response of these two states falls short of reasonable moral expectations. This does not mean the UK and Australia should be doing more militarily. R2P does not begin and end with military action. Rather the article argues that the special responsibility to protect can be discharged through humanitarian aid and a more generous asylum policy.     

A Gender Gap in Australia? Commonwealth Elections 1910-96

This article describes and tests a process which generates the 'pro-coalition gender gap' in electoral behaviour which has been observed in recent research. More detailed analysis, however, indicates that this gap is more apparent than real: for almost three-quarters of the electorate (those who are not members of trade unions) the electoral behaviour of men and women is virtually identical. Further, sex segregation in the workforce appears at least as much as women's participation in the workforce to underlie the 'pro-coalition' gap. These results imply that this (at least partially artifactual) gap is likely to persist into the foreseeable future.