Prehistoric population history in eastern Fennoscandia

In this article, prehistoric population history in eastern Fennoscandia is modelled using summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates. In addition, radiocarbon date distribution is compared with other proxy data. Different proxies seem to produce similar distributions, which enhances the overall reliability of the pattern. The results indicate that there was a very pronounced peak in the hunter–gatherer population slightly after 4000 cal BC. This peak seems to be linked to increased environmental productivity. The subsequent population decline culminated just before the local appearance of farming economies in different sub-areas, which is an interesting result in the wider northern and central European context. Along with the adoption of agriculture, new population growth began in eastern Fennoscandia.     

The use of summed radiocarbon probability distributions in archaeology: a review of methods

Using a database of Australian archaeological radiocarbon dates (n = 2996), this paper explores three key methodological issues associated with the use of summed probability plots of radiocarbon data: 1) the minimum sample size needed for a statistically reliable plot; 2) the effect of radiocarbon calibration on the structure of these plots; and 3) the application of a taphonomic correction to such time-series data. The results identify several protocols, recommended as best-practice when using summed probability plots: 1) a minimum sample size of 500 radiocarbon dates should be used, and the sample size and the mean of the standard deviations of the radiocarbon dates (ΔT) in the sample should both be reported; 2) a moving average trendline of 500-800 years should be used to offset the effects of the calibration process; and 3) Surovell et al. “Correcting temporal frequency distributions for taphonomic bias” [Journal of Archaeological Science 36 (2009) 1715-1724] is explored, with modifications and temporal limits (<25,000 cal years BP) proposed. Correction of time-series data using theoretical taphonomic correction curves is useful as a heuristic tool but can obscure real trends if applied routinely. Comparison between summed probability plots and other occupation data is presented and shows good correlation. However it is recommended that plots are supplemented by other archaeological indices and the cross-comparison of such multiple proxies will strengthen identification of occupation trends.     

RADIOCARBON TRENDS AND THE EAST TEXAS CADDO TRADITION (CA. A.D. 800–1680)

Abstract

Through the employment of radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dates as data, we use the date combination process to refine site-specific summed probability distributions for 555 dates from Caddo sites (n = 19) in East Texas with 10 or more ¹⁴C dates. Summed probability distributions are then contrasted across river basins and natural regions with the remainder of the East Texas Caddo Radiocarbon Database (n = 338 dates from 132 other Caddo sites), highlighting the temporal and spatial character of Caddo archaeological sites throughout East Texas.     

精确定年的祁连圆柏碳十四年代的加速器质谱测定

前言 1949年,碳十四断代的创始人利比(W.F.Libby)公布了第一批碳十四年代数据,宣告碳十四测年方法取得成功,轰动了整个考古界和地质学界。碳十四     

A note on the use of temporal frequency distributions in studies of prehistoric demography

Temporal frequency distributions of archaeological sites and radiocarbon dates are commonly used as proxies for prehistoric population levels based on the assumption that more people create a stronger archaeological signal. While this assumption is certainly correct, we question whether relative frequencies of sites or dates observed from prehistoric contexts are necessarily linked to human demography. In this paper, we demonstrate that the typical positive curvilinear frequency distributions observed in archaeological contexts also regularly occur in paleontological and geological contexts and are thus likely caused by the operation of time-dependent destructive processes, what we call “taphonomic bias.” Using a simple model, which assumes a constant rate of site loss over time, we show how taphonomic bias can produce positive curvilinear frequency distributions through time even in cases of population stasis, decline, and fluctuation. We conclude that caution must be used when attempting to infer demographic trends from frequency distributions alone.     

A comment on Steele’s (2010) “radiocarbon dates as data: quantitative strategies for estimating colonization front speeds and event densities”

We show that Steele’s (2010) criticisms of Hamilton and Buchanan (2007) and Buchanan et al. (2008) do not hold water and demonstrate that his re-analyses of Hamilton and Buchanan’s (2007) and Buchanan et al'.s (2008) datasets are flawed. In the process, we highlight some important issues for researchers interested in using radiocarbon dates to reconstruct population movements and demography. Most notably, we explain why OLS regression is preferable to RMA regression when estimating diffusion velocity, and demonstrate that the summed probability distributions yielded by CalPal are more reliable as guides to past demographic change than those produced by Calib and OxCal.     

Evaluation of radiocarbon dates from the Middle Holocene hunter-gatherer cemetery Khuzhir-Nuge XIV,Lake Baikal,Siberia

A data set of 87 radiocarbon determinations obtained for the Bronze Age Khuzhir-Nuge XIV cemetery in the Cis-Baikal region of Siberia is analyzed from the perspective of data quality and within the local archaeological context. Bone preservation, expressed in terms of collagen yields, is a very important factor affecting both the accuracy and precision of ¹⁴C dates and, therefore, publication of this information should be adopted as a required standard. According to the calibrated high-collagen dates, after a single Serovo interment the cemetery was used continuously by Glazkovo peoples for up to 700 years (∼2700–2000 BC), and 70% of all burials were interred within a relatively short peak period between approximately 2500 and 2300 BC. The extensive radiocarbon data from KN XIV allow for the re-evaluation of existing models and perspectives on the place of the Glazkovo culture within the Cis-Baikal Neolithic and Bronze Age.     

Radiocarbon dates as data: quantitative strategies for estimating colonization front speeds and event densities

Archaeological analysis of large-scale prehistoric population history requires us to estimate rates of spatial spread during dispersals, and rates and magnitudes of temporal contraction during crashes. Using OxCal’s MCMC sampling routine, I introduce and demonstrate a simple and easily implemented method of estimating front speeds that takes due account of the uncertainty in the archaeological data (in both dates and distances), and argue that this method is more appropriate than those most often used in front speed estimation at present. I also propose a simple and easily implemented method of estimating event densities as a demographic proxy, as an alternative to summed calibrated probability distributions. I argue that this alternative is a significantly better technique, and show that its use also enables us to identify individual archaeological dates that are exerting particularly strong influence on the results, so that we can efficiently allocate our attention when assessing the possible effects of exogenous sampling uncertainty. To illustrate these methods I re-analyse two published datasets relating to the early Paleoindian colonization of North America. My results with the new technique indicate that even with a very noisy dataset, there was clear evidence in the framework of the INTCAL04 calibration curve for a drastic reduction in archaeological event densities following the Younger Dryas onset, followed by a prolonged period of reduced human activity, and a possible renewed phase of rapid growth after the Younger Dryas termination and onset of the Holocene. However, the revised estimate of the Younger Dryas marine reservoir offset in the INTCAL09 calibration curve for ∼12,550–12,900 cal BP changes the picture significantly, by flattening the peak in Clovis-age events and pushing it forward in time into the early Younger Dryas itself.     

Correcting temporal frequency distributions for taphonomic bias

In this paper, we expand upon a prior study [Surovell, T.A., Brantingham, P.J., 2007. A note on the use of temporal frequency distributions in studies of prehistoric demography. Journal of Archaeological Science 34, 1868–1877.] that explored the problem of taphonomic bias. Taphonomic bias refers to the tendency for younger things to be over-represented relative to older things in the archaeological record due to the operation of destructive processes like erosion and weathering. Using a database of radiocarbon dated volcanic deposits from Bryson, R.U., Bryson, R.A., Ruter, A. [2006. A calibrated radiocarbon database of late Quaternary volcanic eruptions. Earth Discussions 1, 123–124.], we develop an empirical model of taphonomic bias. In contrast to our prior study in which we modeled taphonomic bias as an exponential function wherein the likelihood of site loss remains constant through time, we argue that the probability of site destruction actually decreases with site age. We further demonstrate how this model can be used to correct temporal frequency distributions and extract demographic histories. We illustrate this approach using databases of radiocarbon dates from rockshelter and open-air sites in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, USA, and mammoths and humans in Siberia, Russia.     

Regional Demographic Dynamics in the Neolithic Transition in Iberia: Results from Summed Calibrated Date Analysis

This paper assesses long-term trends in human activity across the Iberian Peninsula associated with the spread of agriculture. In order to improve our understanding of regional trajectories within the two-way and multiple-velocity model proposed by Isern et al. (Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory 21:447–460, 2014), we consider summed calibrated radiocarbon dates of a large audited dataset from across Iberia. To assess the role of different analytical units, two alternative peninsular divisions at different spatial resolutions were used: one, with three generalized study areas, and the second, with eight biogeographic regions. This comparison of spatio-temporal variability provides a more in-depth inter-regional reading of the Neolithic transition in Iberia than more generalized approaches. The southwest, Mediterranean coasts and interior portions of Iberia all showed significant demographic expansion with the onset of the Neolithic, as observed across Western Europe. By contrast, northern Iberia featured a close adherence to a null model of exponential growth and a longer continuation of hunter-gatherer strategies.     

Population and forest dynamics during the Central European Eneolithic (4500–2000 BC)

The population boom-and-bust during the European Neolithic (7000–2000 BC) has been the subject of lively discussion for the past decade. Most of the research on this topic was carried out with help of summed radiocarbon probability distributions. We aim to reconstruct population dynamics within the catchment of a medium sized lake on the basis of information on the presence of all known past human activities. We calculated a human activity model based on Monte Carlo simulations. The model showed the lowest level of human activity between 4000 and 3000 BC. For a better understanding of long-term socio-environmental dynamics, we also used the results of a pollen-based quantitative vegetation model, as well as a local macrophysical climate model. The beginning of the decline of archaeologically visible human activities corresponds with climatic changes and an increase in secondary forest taxa probably indicating more extensive land use. In addition, social and technological innovations are important, such as the introduction of the ard, wheel, animal traction and metallurgy, as well as changes in social hierarchy characterizing the same period.     

Debates over Palaeolithic chronology – the reliability of C is confirmed

The debate about the complex issues of human development during the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition period (45–35 ka BP) has been hampered by concerns about the reliability of the radiocarbon dating method. Large ¹⁴C anomalies were postulated and radiocarbon dating was considered flawed. We show here that these issues are no longer relevant, because the large anomalies are artefacts beyond plausible physical limits for their magnitude. Previous inconsistencies between ¹⁴C radiocarbon datasets have been resolved, and a new radiocarbon calibration curve, IntCal09 (Reimer et al., 2009), was created. Improved procedures for bone collagen extraction and charcoal pre-treatment generally result in older ages, consistent with independently dated time markers.     

A comparison of the treatment of errors in radiocarbon dating calibration methods

The application of radiocarbon dating to archaeological samples generally requires calibration of ¹⁴C dates to calendar ages and interpretation of dating errors. In this paper, four recent methods of age calibration are assessed, particularly with regard to their quality of error treatment. Recent experimental research has suggested that commonly quoted errors on “raw” ¹⁴C dates may require enlargement to more realistic levels, which, when incorporated in the calibration schemes, produce a considerable increase in the size of the typical calibrated interval. A general decrease in the sensitivity of ¹⁴C dating using single, “normal precision” dates is implied. Thus typical calibrated age intervals range from 300 to 1300 years (approximate 95% confidence level), with little improvement resulting if “high precision” calibration systems are used to correct “normal precision” dates. Of the four methods considered here, that proposed by Neftel is found to provide the most objective, flexible, comprehensive and “easy to use” scheme. This method is particularly recommended for its treatment of errors both on the dates to be calibrated and on the calibration curve itself.     

Temporal frequency distributions of alluvium in the American Southwest: taphonomic,paleohydraulic, and demographic implications

The use of radiocarbon frequency distributions to reconstruct prehistoric human and animal populations must account for taphonomic loss and other factors that affect the archaeological and paleontological records. Surovell et al. (JAS, 36, 1715–1724) have recently proposed a correction for “taphonomic bias” that is based on the radiocarbon frequency of a global sample of volcanic deposits. Analysis of 717 radiocarbon dates sampled from the alluvium of the San Pedro and Santa Cruz rivers and their tributaries in southeastern Arizona shows that discovery and scientific biases also play an important role in the creation of radiocarbon frequency distributions, and that the rate of “taphonomic bias” in prehistory is not predicted by the radiocarbon frequency of volcanic deposits. The latter principle is further argued using a sample of 123 Pliocene to Clovis-age proboscideans from the San Pedro Valley. We propose an alternative model that is based on the nature of the stratigraphic record, with discovery bias, scientific bias, taphonomic loss, and the shape of the calibration curve all operating to influence the temporal frequency distribution of radiocarbon-dated prehistoric phenomena.     

The Laacher See-eruption (12,920 BP) and material culture change at the end of the Allerød in Northern Europe

A number of recent papers have argued that summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates calibrated with the CALPAL software package can be used to identify population trends in prehistory. For instance, Gamble et al. (Gamble, C., Davies, W., Pettitt, P., Richards, M., 2004. Climate change and evolving human diversity in Europe during the last glacial. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B 359, 243–254; Gamble, C., Davies, W., Pettitt, P., Richards, M., 2005. The archaeological and genetic foundations of the European population during the Late Glacial: implications for 'agricultural thinking'. Cambridge Archaeological Journal 15, 193–223.) have demonstrated that during the European Late Glacial, demography was more variable than hitherto acknowledged. Building on this work, this paper presents evidence that the large, but so far largely ignored eruption of the Laacher See-volcano, located in present-day western Germany and dated to 12,920 BP, had a dramatic impact on forager demography all along the northern periphery of Late Glacial settlement and precipitated archaeologically visible cultural change. In Southern Scandinavia, these changes took the form of technological simplification, the loss of bow-and-arrow technology, and coincident with these changes, the emergence of the regionally distinct Bromme culture. Groups in north-eastern Europe appear to have responded to the eruption in similar ways, but on the British Isles and in the Thuringian Basin populations contracted or relocated, leaving these areas largely depopulated already before the onset of the Younger Dryas/GS-1 cooling. Demographic models are used to link these changes to the Laacher See-eruption and this research demonstrates that we cannot sideline catastrophic environmental change in our reconstructions of prehistoric culture history.     

Prehistoric population history: from the Late Glacial to the Late Neolithic in Central and Northern Europe

Summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates are used to make inferences about the history of population fluctuations from the Mesolithic to the late Neolithic for three countries in central and northern Europe: Germany, Poland and Denmark. Two different methods of summing the dates produce very similar overall patterns. The validity of the aggregate patterns is supported by a number of regional studies based on other lines of evidence. The dramatic rise in population associated with the arrival of farming in these areas that is visible in the date distributions is not surprising. Much more unexpected are the fluctuations during the course of the Neolithic, and especially the indications of a drop in population at the end of the LBK early Neolithic that lasted for nearly a millennium. Possible reasons for the pattern are discussed.     

New dates from Ushki-1, Kamchatka,confirm 13,000 cal BP age for earliest Paleolithic occupation

For many years cultural layer 7 at the Ushki sites, Kamchatka was considered to represent the earliest human occupation of Beringia, because four radiocarbon dates indicated an age of 16,000–17,000 calendar years ago (cal BP). In 2003, however, Goebel et al. reported that layer 7 more likely formed only 13,000 cal BP, nearly 4000 years later than N.N. Dikov, the site’s primary excavator, originally reported. Some researchers have downplayed the significance of the new dates, continuing to regard Dikov’s early dates as evidence that at least some of the hearth and dwelling features previously excavated at Ushki-1 date to as early as 17,000 cal BP. Here we present four new radiocarbon dates (and two previously unpublished dates) on curated charcoal from hearth features excavated at Ushki-1 more than 20 years ago. They indicate that these hearths and associated dwelling features date to about 13,000 cal BP. We now know 15 radiocarbon dates on charcoal from a variety of features and profiles across Ushki-1 and Ushki-5 that indicate the age of layer 7 is about 13,000 cal BP. We discount the four 16,000–17,000 cal BP dates, first, because two of them came from a deeply dug human burial pit and were likely secondarily introduced into the burial; second, because provenience data for the other two dated samples were never reported and do not exist in the records of the radiocarbon laboratories that produced them; and, third, because sediments immediately underlying layer 7 at Ushki-1 are only a few centuries earlier than 13,000 cal BP, providing an important lower-limiting age for the layer-7 occupation. We conclude that the age of all of the layer-7 features at Ushki-1 and Ushki-5 should be considered to be about 13,000 cal BP, at least until the earlier obtained old dates of 16,000–17,000 cal BP can be replicated.     

Radiocarbon dating of prehistoric hearths in alpine northern Sweden: problems and possibilities

The chronology of prehistoric Sami settlement sites has previously been established by conventional radiocarbon dating of bulk charcoal samples associated with hearths from sunken hut floors (stállo-foundations). Here we present results of a comprehensive dating exercise of stállo-foundations in the alpine area of northern Scandinavia using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating of charcoal. Over a 3 km² study area, AMS calibrated ages of hearth charcoal from 22 stállo-foundations across 12 sites securely date these features to between cal. AD 640 and AD 1180. Only small variations in age were found between charcoal samples from different areas of a given hearth. Statistical analysis of all the charcoal AMS radiocarbon dates obtained reveals that 12 stállo-foundations across nine sites are contemporaneous and date to the Viking Period (AD 800–AD 1050). The tightly constrained AMS-based chronology of stállo-foundations contrasts with the existing chronology based on conventional radiocarbon analysis, which places these features within a significantly greater time-frame of between AD 600 and AD 1900, with most dates ranging between AD 800 and AD 1350.This discrepancy is likely to result from the necessity of collecting composite hearth charcoal particles, which may originate from different phases of occupation, in order to achieve the required final carbon content for conventional radiocarbon analysis. We argue that the new AMS-based radiocarbon chronology of stállo-foundations presented here supersedes the existing chronology based on conventional (Gas Proportional counting) radiocarbon analysis and we advocate the use of AMS radiocarbon dating in future hearth investigations.     

CHARIOTS AND CONTEXT: NEW RADIOCARBON DATES FROM WETWANG AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF IRON AGE BURIALS AND BROOCHES IN EAST YORKSHIRE

This paper presents 21 new radiocarbon dates for Iron Age burials excavated at Wetwang Slack, East Yorkshire, including three chariot burials. The dates are analysed using a Bayesian approach, along with previous dates from the cemetery and from other chariot burials in the region. The model suggests that regular burial at Wetwang spanned the third and earlier second centuries cal BC, a shorter period than once thought, whilst the chariot burials all belong to a short‐lived horizon centred on 200 cal BC. The dating of brooch types present in the burials is also reassessed. Our results imply that brooches of La Tène D form appeared in Britain in the later second century cal BC, in line with Continental evidence, but reinforcing the void in the later Iron Age sequence revealed in a recent study of decorated metalwork. Both this apparent gap and the end of the classic East Yorkshire mortuary tradition may well be manifestations of the more general changes that swept across Europe at this period, ushering in the new forms of political organization and social practices that define the Late Iron Age.     

Radiocarbon Chronometry of Site QJ-280, Quebrada Jaguay,a Terminal Pleistocene to Early Holocene Fishing Site in Southern Peru

Excavations in 1970, 1996, and 1999 at Site QJ-280, Quebrada Jaguay, in southern Peru, yielded enough dateable terrestrial plant material to establish an extensive radiocarbon chronology for the site. QJ-280 is one of oldest well-dated fishing sites in the Americas: it was occupied from the terminal Pleistocene to the mid-Holocene (about 13,000–8,300 calibrated years BP) based on 42 terrestrial radiocarbon dates, encompassing the Jaguay and Machas Phases of the local archaeological sequence. In addition to the terrestrial dates, radiocarbon measurements on valves of two marine surf clam (Mesodesma donacium) individuals from a single, well-dated mid-Holocene Manos Phase archaeological context have provided insight into marine upwelling conditions during the occupation of Quebrada Jaguay. The marine reservoir age varied between 130 and 730 ¹⁴C years during the brief lives of the two clams (up to 5 years each), and varied by up to 530 ¹⁴C years within an individual valve, suggesting strong and variable deep marine upwelling; conditions broadly similar to those that exist in coastal Peru today. These rapid variations in marine radiocarbon age suggest that marine radiocarbon dates from environments with variable upwelling could be skewed by up to hundreds of years.