对我国粗放型劳动密集产业的理性思考

我国是世界上劳动力资源最丰富而劳动力成本又很低的国家,发展粗放型劳动密集产业符合我国的比较优势。但是,粗放型劳动密集产业又是建立在低附加值和国民的低福利的基础上,其潜在的市场竞争力又是很有限的．况且,以跨国公司为重要载体的市场国际化、经济全球化的时代,劳动力成本低廉对我国经济发展的特殊作用正在明显减弱．我国粗放型劳动密集产业正面临严峻挑战。     

产业联系与外资溢出效应-对浙江省制造业的实证研究

本文探讨水平联系、前向联系和后向联系对外商直接投资溢出效应的影响。利用浙江省制造业数据,通过实证分析发现,浙江省制造业外资总体上具有水平负向溢出效应,同时通过后向联系产生正向溢出效应。水平负向溢出效应主要是外资企业带来的激烈竞争所导致的,产业后向联系产生的正向溢出效应主要通过外资企业的本地采购发生。浙江省内资制造业企业并没有从购买外资企业中间投入品而显著提升效率。     

URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE “TODARO PARADOX” IN A SPATIAL CONTEXT*

ABSTRACT The Todaro paradox and the effects of job creation in urban areas will be re-examined in our spatial model in which the radius of the labor market is endogenously determined by the rational choices of workers. The travel cost of workers plays a crucial role in the choice between two different types of response, migration or commuting. By considering travel costs, we find that the Todaro paradox can be applied to developed, as well as developing, countries. Job creation in urban areas can produce a paradoxical increase in urban unemployment in developed countries, because the low marginal cost of travel will significantly increase the radius of the urban labor market and create new labor supply without migration.     

Polarization and the growth of low‐skill service jobs in Spanish local labor markets

This paper analyzes the long‐term transformations of the occupational structure in 50 provinces of Spain with a view to ascertain the existence and assess the extent of employment polarization. The peculiar characteristics of this country, namely rigid labor markets and the relatively recent transition to democracy, make for an interesting addition to existing studies on this topic. In line with previous literature on other countries, we find a strong association between the decline of “routine” mid‐skill jobs and the expansion of low‐skill service employment as well as differential labor market outcomes by levels of formal education. Results are robust to various controls and instrumental variables that account for long‐term industry specialization. We also find a positive local multiplier effect of high‐skilled workers on the demand for nontradable service jobs.     

Optimizing the Spatial Structure of the Agricultural Production Function

Important characteristics of spatial agricultural production functions are derived by introducing a non‐negative curvilinear spatial demand function for production input intensities. Given the usual neoclassical rationale assumptions of spatial demand for capital and labor inputs under competitive environment of farming in developing agricultural economies, the optimal production levels are determined by optimizing spatial demand for production inputs. Decreasing price‐to‐transport costs ratio (that is, decrease in the prices of capital goods or increase in freight rates) and increasing wage‐to‐travel costs ratio (that is, increase in labor wages or decrease in the travel rate) expand the limits of the (spatial) optimal boundary of the demand for agricultural capital goods and labor input respectively. These effects occur on account of the operation of (positive) spatial price gradient and (negative) wage‐gradient in the market region. It may be noted that elasticities of demand for production factors are spatially variant and have significant effects on the alterations in the structure of agricultural production. However, the spatial optimal solution of production has a complicated relationship with them. The price elasticity has negative and wage elasticity has positive spatial gradients in the market region. Farmers located in the periphery of the market region are not much affected by the proportionate changes occurring in the prices of agricultural capital goods but are more sensitive to the proportional changes in labor wages. Because of a decreasing trend in capital input demand and increase in labor input with distance from the market, capital‐product diminishes with a decreasing rate and labor‐product increases with an increasing rate in the spatial structure of agricultural production. As a result, capital‐labor ratio falls toward zero, which raises profit rate per unit of capital investment especially in the outer part of the market region. The equilibria of optimal production with price elasticity as well as of capital intensity with labor employment (that is, capital‐labor ratio as unity) determine spatial limits of the optimal production zone which is shifted outward subject to the provision of cheap transportation, stabilizing market prices and/or increasing wage rate at the market center. It will help in extending outwardly the optimal spatial limits of capital investment and will mobilize capital resources of farmers in the periphery for efficient and competitive capital‐dominated farming.     

An Analysis of Factors Determining the Level of Natural-Gas Extraction in the North of Tyumen' Oblast

The absence of a long-term program of development of the Tyumen' gas fields is noted, and more intensive development is urged on the following grounds: the availability of large predicted reserves and the relatively low cost of proving these reserves compared with the cost of geological exploration in the deeper gas fields of European Russia; the need for gas as a fuel and chemical raw material in the Siberian economy; prospects of reducing steel-pipe, labor and investment requirements for development of the gas industry as a result of automation and technical progress. An annual output level of one trillion cubic meters a year is urged. The required investment is estimated at 50 billion, rubles. In view of predicted higher gas prices (15 to 20 rubles per 1000 cubic meters) and low operating costs (3.4 rubles), the annual return on investment at a trillion-cubic-meter production level would be about 13 billion rubles.     

The Impact of Raw-Material Factor on the Territorial Production Structure of Primary Processing Industry

A case study of the lumbering and forest-products industry seeks to establish the effectiveness of the territorial structure of primary processing under the impact of the resource base and of various economic nonphysical factors. A set of variables, including the magnitude of timber reserves, volume of output and the regional conditions of production, is analyzed on an oblast-by-oblast basis to establish their impact on the structure of the industry. Economic effectiveness is measured in terms of the level of labor productivity resulting from various combinations of factors. In general, labor productivity tends to be high in timber-rich regions with large volumes of production. But high levels of performance can also be achieved with low volumes of production if the industrial structure reflects the magnitude of the local timber supply (timber-intensive industries in timber-rich regions and nonintensive industries in timber-poor regions) or if the structure is adapted to local market needs. Previous papers on the subject appeared in Soviet Geography, May 1972.     

EXTERNALITIES AND PARTIAL TAX REFORM: DOES IT MAKE SENSE TO TAX ROAD FREIGHT (BUT NOT PASSENGER) TRANSPORT?*

ABSTRACT Externalities such as pollution and road congestion are jointly produced by the use of intermediate inputs by firms and the consumption of final goods by households. To cope with such externalities, policy proposals often suggest partial tax reforms. This paper uses a simple general equilibrium model to explore the effects of a reform of taxes on freight transport in a second‐best setting. The theoretical model shows that the welfare effect of higher freight taxes is positive, unless passenger transport is severely under‐taxed and the tax reform attracts substantially more passenger transport. Moreover, the optimal freight tax may be below or above marginal external cost. Budgetary neutral tax reform exercises with a numerical simulation model for the U.K. suggest that, under a wide variety of parameter values, higher freight transport taxes are indeed welfare increasing. The welfare gain of freight tax reform rises with the level of the passenger tax, but the optimal freight tax declines at higher taxes on passenger transport. Substantial net benefits of tax reform are obtained only under labor tax recycling of the revenues.     

ON THE IMPACT OF COMPETITION ON TRADE AND FIRM LOCATION

We study how the level of trade costs and the intensity of competition interact to explain the nature and intensity of trade within a given industry and the location of firms across countries. As trade costs decrease from very high to very low values, the global economy moves from autarky to two‐way trade, through one‐way trade from the larger to the smaller region. By exploring the intensive and extensive margins of exports, we investigate how the intensity of trade reacts to the degree of competitiveness. Furthermore, when firms are free to change location, they flow from the small to the large country, and the larger country is always a net exported on the manufactured good. Firms located in the big country have a bigger size than those located in the small one. Under one‐way trade, the relocation of firms changes their attitude toward export.     

1959年革命前古巴蔗糖业的发展及其影响

19世纪中叶,古巴蔗糖业为了解决自身的危机,通过对土地、劳动力、资金和社会结构的重新组合,使古巴资本主义经济获得了新的动力,取得了飞速的增长。但是,这种增长并没有使古巴成为现代化国家,而是将古巴变成“假发展”的国家,其特点是：有经济增长无全面的社会发展;对蔗糖业、对外贸易和美国市场产生了严重的依赖性。     

抗战时期西北皮毛贸易与大后方经济变动

皮毛是西北地区重要的畜牧产品。近代以来,随着天津的开埠通商,在天津口岸的经济辐射作用下,大量西北皮毛通过黄河水运汇集至包头后再通过平绥铁路运至天津出口美英等国,皮毛成为西北最重要的出口物资,大量西北皮毛的出口也成为西北地区皮毛业外向化的重要表现。但抗战爆发以后,西北皮毛贸易发生了巨大变化。首先,西北皮毛出口运输路线改为向西汇集兰州后再通过甘新公路或甘新大道运至猩猩峡出口苏联,使得苏联取代战前美国成为中国最大皮毛进口国,这也直接推动了战时中苏易货贸易的发展。其次,由于战时西北皮毛出口运输较战前出口运输路途艰险,加上战时出口市场萎缩等原因,造成战时西北皮毛出口量较战前减少。战时西北皮毛出口量的减少,迫使部分皮毛出口转内销,西北皮毛业从战前外向化开始转为战时内向化。西北皮毛内销数量的增加,也推动了大后方毛纺织业的发展。因此,战时西北皮毛业的内向化一定程度上为战时大后方经济的发展积累了新的动力因素。     

An Evolutionary New Economic Geography Model

In this paper we present a general new economic geography model with multiple industries and regions, full labor and capital mobility, land use in production and consumption, and a dynamic adjustment process in which consumers maximize utility and firms respond to nonzero profits. All industries use intermediate inputs as well as land, labor, and capital. Systems of cities form endogenously within this framework, including asymmetrical urban hierarchies and cities of different sizes and industry compositions. Each urban area has a bid-rent gradient and zones with land uses and densities as in the von Thünen model. The equilibrium depends not only on initial conditions but also on speeds of adjustment. The model is a prototype for empirical implementation, as illustrated with a simulation of the effects of transportation cost reductions.     

Transport costs: measures, determinants, and regional policy implications for France

We develop a methodology to accurately compute transport costs.Based on the real transport network, our measure encompassesthe characteristics of infrastructure, vehicle and energy used,as well as labor, insurance, tax and general charges borne bytransport carriers. Computed for the 341 French employment areas,road transport shipments and the period 1978–1998, thisnew measure is compared to alternative ones such as great circledistance, real distance, or real time. We conclude that theseproxies do a very good job in capturing transport costs in cross-sectionanalysis. However, important discrepancies limit the possibilityof using them in time series analysis. Moreover, our measureallows us to identify the policies that most impact transportcosts. We show that transport technology and market structureare responsible for most of the transport cost decrease. Infrastructureimprovements only condition the spatial distribution of thegains. Finally, some implications for researchers and regionalpolicy makers are derived.     

Reexamining transport poverty,job access,and gender issues in Central and Eastern Europe

Tirana, the Balkan capital examined in this study, displays patterns of gendered job search behavior and access, which are unique within contemporary Europe and even within post-socialist Central and Eastern Europe. Here, it is a rather spatially constricted job search range rather than transport poverty that prevents women living in first-ring suburbs from attaining satisfactory employment. Female commutes are extraordinarily short and most often on foot. While the city now has nearly one million inhabitants and a high car ownership rate, and is located in Europe, the employment and mobility choices and behaviors of its female residents resemble those in developing rather than developed countries, and in small rather than large cities. The reasons underpinning this situation have more to do with socio-cultural gender barriers and less with transport poverty or labor market weaknesses. This finding might apply to other Balkan capitals or cities outside Europe, which have recently experienced large waves of internal migration and where both existing residents and newcomers have not yet adjusted to ‘big city’ life.     

The Transport Industry in the West and East Zones of the USSR

The levels of development of production and transportation are compared for the western and eastern zones of the USSR. The low density of the transport net in the East, combined with the high cost of transport construction and a manpower shortage, tends to favor the development of large industrial complexes within limited areas making use of the zone's unique natural resource base. Such areally concentrated development would reduce the need for local transport systems and make more investment available for the more efficient mainline routes. The western zone, with its virtually continuous economic development and denser transport net, favors a more uniform location of production and the increasing location of industry in small and middle-size cities, which would ease the load on heavily used mainline transport routes and make greater use of local forms of transportation, including motor freight.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF LOCALIZATION AND URBANIZATION ECONOMIES: EVIDENCE FROM THE LOCATION OF NEW FIRMS IN SPAIN

The objective of this paper is to analyze why firms in some industries locate in specialized economic environments (localization economies) while those in other industries prefer large city locations (urbanization economies). To this end, we examine the location decisions of new manufacturing firms in Spain at the city level and for narrowly defined industries. First, we estimate firm location models to obtain estimates that reflect the importance of localization and urbanization economies in each industry. Then, we regress these estimates on industry characteristics related to the potential importance of labor market pooling, input sharing, and knowledge spillovers. Urbanization effects are high in knowledge‐intensive industries, suggesting that firms locate in large cities to benefit from knowledge spillovers. We also find that localization effects are high in industries that employ workers whose skills are more industry‐specific, suggesting that industries locate in specialized economic environments to share a common pool of specialized workers.     

高速铁路对中国城市产业结构的影响研究

交通是影响城市产业发展的重要因素,高铁作为一种新型交通工具必将对城市产业发展产生影响。修正市场潜力模型分析高铁对中国城市产业结构的影响。结果表明：①总体上,高铁提升了城市服务业的比重,降低了城市制造业的比重;制造业型城市和服务业型城市的服务业比重都得到提升,制造业比重都下降;从单个城市来看,高铁提升了大多数制造业型城市和大多数服务业型城市服务业的比重。②对于制造业型城市的产业结构升级,高铁主要促进该类城市一般服务业比重的提升;对于服务业型城市的产业结构强化,高铁主要促进这些城市高端服务业比重的提升。③高铁的开通增强了中心城市的溢出效应,促进了中心城市及其周边城市的产业结构升级。     

Elastic labor supply and agglomeration

This study analyzes the interplay between the agglomeration of economic activities and interregional differences in working hours, which are typically longer in large cities, as they are normally more developed than small cities. For this purpose, we develop a two‐region model with endogenous labor supply. Although we assume a symmetric distribution of immobile workers, the symmetric equilibrium breaks in the sense that firms may agglomerate when trade costs are intermediate and labor supply is elastic. We also show that the price index is always lower, while labor supply, per capita income, real wages, and welfare are always higher in the more agglomerated region.     

宁夏移民安置区剩余劳动力状态分析

农村剩余劳动力转移是当前社会各界共同关注的问题。本文就宁夏移民安置区这一特殊区域的剩余劳动力产生的背景状态、自身资源状态、输出人员的结构状态及目前的转移状态进行了分析,进而研究了影响移民区剩余劳动力转移的各种因素,提出了加速推进移民区剩余劳动力转移的五条对策,即重视移民区小城市与中心城镇的建设、加速非农产业的发展、加大对劳动力的技能培训、加强对劳务输出的组织与服务、加快体制和制度创新。     

Multilevel (mis)governance of palm oil production

The palm oil industry exemplifies the ‘regionalisation without regionalism’ pattern seen in other industries in Asia: extensive, regionally concentrated transnational economic integration accompanied by a low level of formal regional institution-building. Production is concentrated in Malaysia and Indonesia, and Asian countries account for a major share of the market for intermediate products. The ownership structure of palm oil production reflects the dominance of transnational Malaysian and Singaporean firms. There is no authoritative regional institution governing production, investment standards or labour in the industry. A patchwork of both enabling and regulatory governance institutions supports the industry. These are formal and informal, public and private, and are situated at multiple levels: within, below and across the nation state. Although the governance structure surrounding the palm oil industry has supported it well in terms of production volumes and profits, large externalities—environmental and social costs—persist. This article argues that the governance failures associated with the industry stem from different stakeholders' competing interests in contexts of highly unequal wealth and power distribution. Misgovernance is not an unintended consequence of institutions failing to keep up with markets in scale and scope, but is embedded in the multilevel governance regime that supports, and partially regulates, the industry.