THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

“FUTURE PAST”: TIME AND TELEOLOGY IN (ANCIENT) HISTORIOGRAPHY

The historian's account of the past is strongly shaped by the future of the events narrated. The telos, that is, the vantage point from which the past is envisaged, influences the selection of the material as well as its arrangement. Although the telos is past for historians and readers, it is future for historical agents. The term “future past,” coined by Reinhart Koselleck to highlight the fact that the future was seen differently before the Sattelzeit, also lends itself to capturing this asymmetry and elucidating its ramifications for the writing of history. The first part of the essay elaborates on the notion of “future past”: besides considering its significance and pitfalls, I offset it against the perspectivity of historical knowledge and the concept of narrative “closure” (I). Then the works of two ancient historians, Polybius and Sallust, serve as test cases that illustrate the intricacies of “future past.” Neither has received much credit for intellectual sophistication in scholarship, and yet the different narrative strategies Polybius and Sallust deploy reveal profound reflections on the temporal dynamics of writing history (II). Although the issue of “future past” is particularly pertinent to the strongly narrative historiography of antiquity, the controversy about the end of the Roman Republic demonstrates that it also applies to the works of modern historians (III). Finally, I will argue that “future past” alerts us to an aspect of how we relate to the past that is in danger of being obliterated in the current debate on “presence” and history. The past is present in customs, relics, and rituals, but the historiographical construction of the past is predicated on a complex hermeneutical operation that involves the choice of a telos. The concept of “future past” also differs from post‐structuralist theories through its emphasis on time. Retrospect calms the flow of time, but is unable to arrest it fully, as the openness of the past survives in the form of “future past” (IV).     

Human capital sorting: The “when” and “who” of the sorting of educated workers to urban regions

The sorting of high‐ability workers is often advanced as one source of spatial disparities in economic outcomes. There are still few papers that analyze when human capital sorting occurs and whom it involves. Using data on 16 cohorts of university graduates in Sweden, we demonstrate significant sorting to urban regions on high school grades and education levels of parents, i.e., two attributes typically associated with latent abilities that are valued in the labor market. A large part of this sorting has already occurred in deciding where to study, because the top universities in Sweden are predominantly located in urban regions. The largest part of directed sorting on ability indicators occurs in the decision of where to study. Even after controlling for sorting prior to labor market entry, the “best and brightest” are still more likely to start working in urban regions. However, this effect appears to be driven by Sweden's main metropolitan region, Stockholm. We find no influence of our ability indicators on the probability of starting to work in urban regions after graduation when Stockholm is excluded. Studies of human capital sorting need to account for selection processes to and from universities, because neglecting mobility prior to labor market entry is likely to lead to an underestimation of the extent of the sorting to urban regions.     

REGIONAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NETHERLANDS: EVIDENCE OF AGGLOMERATION AND CONGESTION EFFECTS*

ABSTRACT This paper studies the impact of localization, urbanization, and diversification on regional labor productivity levels and growth. We find substantial effects, accounting for roughly half of the explained variation in the labor productivity differences within the Netherlands in the 1990s. Diversification, urbanization, and localization effects are significant and positive for productivity levels. These levels appear cointegrated. The error correction specification of productivity growth surprisingly reflects negative agglomeration effects. From the theoretical model it follows that congestion effects must have taken precedence over agglomeration effects during this period. Both agglomeration and congestion effects are dampened by job density in neighboring regions. Finally, policy simulations with the estimated model show that spatial concentration is more harmful to national productivity growth than spatial dispersion.     

Arbeit und Zeit,Körper und Uhr: Die Konstruktion von ‚effektiver’︁ Arbeit im ‚Scientific Management’︁ des frühen 20. Jahrhunderts

The concept ‚Scientific Management’︁ was invented in 1910 for what was then called the ‚Taylor‐system’︁ of shop management. Frederick W. Taylor had developed his system to eliminate the “waste of human effort” mainly by “time study”, the analysis of the work of “first‐class workman” with a stop‐watch and the synthesis of standard times for given tasks which make the “waste” of effort visible and measurable. A reading of Karl Marx's work shows the “paradigm of productivity” governing mid‐century discussion of the value of labor. Time is a central element in the valuation of industrial labour, but only with Taylor the precision of the stop‐watch is introduced to observe and control the productivity of the body of the worker. As disciples of Taylor Frank and Lillian Gilbreth introduced motion studies and micromotion studies into Scientific Management. Their analysis of the motion of workers, technically assisted by high‐speed watches and cameras, goes beyond the surface‐observation of the first‐class workman to enable the design of efficient motion. The body of the worker is represented in lines of light and tables of data. The objects of desire are the time‐lines of efficiency and productivity. In both cases, Taylor and the Gilbreths, various observations further lead to the conclusion that science and schooling are an important historical background to the rise of Scientific Management that deserves closer inspection.     

The Local Implications of Major Job Transformations in the City: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach

The changing dynamics of regional and local labor markets during the last decades have led to an increasing labor market segmentation and socioeconomic polarization and to a rise of income inequalities at the regional, urban, and intraurban level. These problems call for effective social and local labor market policies. However, there is also a growing need for methods and techniques capable of efficiently estimating the likely impact of social and economic change at the local level. For example, the common methodologies for estimating the impacts of large firm openings or closures operate at the regional level. The best of these models disaggregate the region to the city (Armstrong 1993; Batey and Madden 1983). This paper demonstrates how spatial microsimulation modeling techniques can be used for local labor market analysis and policy evaluation to assess these impacts (and their multiplier effects) at the local level‐to measure the effects on individuals and their neighborhood services. First, we review these traditional macroscale and mesoscale regional modeling approaches to urban and regional policy analysis and we illustrate their merits and limitations. Then, we examine the potential of spatial microsimulation modeling to create a new framework for the formulation, analysis and evaluation of social and local labor market policies at the individual or household level. Outputs from a local labor market microsimulation model for Leeds are presented. We show how first it is possible to investigate the interdependencies between individual's or households labor market attributes at the microscale and to model their accessibilities to job opportunities in different localities. From this base we show how detailed what‐if microspatial analysis can be performed to estimate the impact of major changes in the local labor market through job losses or gains, including local multiplier effects.     

3. “PRESENCE” AND MYTH

There are no dictionary meanings or authoritative discussions of “presence” that fix the significance of this word in a way that ought to be accepted by anybody using it. So we are in the welcome possession of great freedom to maneuver when using the term. In fact, the only feasible requirement for its use is that it should maximally contribute to our understanding of the humanities. When trying to satisfy this requirement I shall relate “presence” to representation. Then I focus on a variant of representation in which the past is allowed to travel to the present as a kind of “stowaway” (Runia), so that the past is literally “present” in historical representation. I appeal to Runia's notion of so‐called “parallel processes” for an analysis of this variant of historical representation.     

URBAN POLICY IN RUSSIA: A GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE

A senior Russian urban geographer describes current features of the Russian urban settlement system, recounts erroneous planning practices of the past, and prescribes changes for the improvement of settlement planning in the future. Of particular interest are tables, disaggregated to the economic regional level, showing spatial variations in the number of new cities registered over the period 1927–1989. In an interesting modification of conventional former Soviet thinking, a case is made in favor of such processes as polarization of space, agglomeration, spontaneous transformation of urban economic profiles, and place-based rather than norm-based planning.     

Wage Effects of Unemployment Duration and Frequency

This paper analyzes the wage effects of unemployment duration and frequency for different regional labor market situations in The Netherlands using a simultaneous equations approach. The main finding is that unemployment duration has a significant negative effect and the frequency of unemployment a significant positive effect on wages in the core regions with relatively low unemployment rates. In the periphery with relatively high unemployment rates no significant effects of unemployment duration and frequency are found. It is argued that in the core regions unemployment duration is primarily viewed as a personal indicator of low productivity whereas in the periphery it is attributed to the situation in the regional labor market.     

Land Reform in the Time of Neoliberalism: A Many‐Splendored Thing

Abstract: Over the past 20 years, land reform – defined here as the redistribution of land from large to small properties – has emerged as an important political issue in the Global South. Actors with widely differing ideological perspectives have claimed land reform as central to their political, social and economic platforms. In this paper, I compare reforms championed under the neoliberal auspices of the World Bank (the so‐called Market Led Agrarian Reforms) with those supported by popular grassroots actors such as the Movement of Landless Workers (the MST) in Brazil. I argue that although these two approaches to land reform are often considered antithetical to one another, they share a common theoretical foundation. Both are rooted in a labor theory of property that attributes the fruits of one's labor to the laborer. Where the two differ is in their interpretation of the “original sin” through which land and labor came to be misaligned: neoliberal actors see the state as the key source of land‐related inefficiency while popular grassroots actors identify the market as the key source. I analyze case material from northeastern Brazil and suggest that the institutionalization of the labor theory of property (across civil society, state and market in the region) has generated insecurities for new land reform beneficiaries who must protect their property rights with visible evidence of their productivity.     

NEW FRONTIERS OF IMMIGRATION RESEARCH: CITIES AND FIRMS*

ABSTRACT The increase in international migration to rich countries during the last two decades has spurred research and policy questions. The economic determinants of national and international migrations and the impact of immigrants on labor markets have been investigated by economists, geographers, and regional scientists for a long time. Recently, however, the availability of new and detailed individual data on migrants across regions and localities in several countries has made it possible to analyze the impact of immigration on a richer set of socio‐economic outcomes. Two avenues of research have emerged as particularly interesting and are the focus of this special issue. First, international migrants are particularly concentrated in urban areas but their impact on some outcomes that are particularly relevant in cities (such as crime and housing markets) are not well understood yet. Second, immigrants not only increase labor supply but also affect firms’ productivity, survival and growth through their impact on localized externalities. These two themes link all the contributions of this special issue and show new directions for future research on the impact of immigration.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

“DOING TIME” IN CARCERAL SPACE: TIMESPACE AND CARCERAL GEOGRAPHY

By bringing debates over experiential time within human geography and criminology/prison sociology into dialogue with one another, this article draws attention to the imperative of considering time in the geographical study of incarceration. Informed by an understanding of space and time which sees them as analytically inseparable from each other, TimeSpace, it revisits existing empirical material previously generated through qualitative research within criminology and prison sociology, and identifies some potential synergies with human geography; in highlighting overlapping temporalities in a carceral context, and in demonstrating both the significance of perceived control over time, and the experience of the lifecourse, when past, present and future are viewed through “each successive now” in a context where (clock) time “moves on” but space is fixed.     

TheConvergence of the Italian Regions and Unemployment: Theory and Evidence

We explore the links between the halt of the convergence process of Italian regions at the beginning of the 1970s and the increase in regional unemployment dispersion. We consider a neoclassical exogenous growth model with an imperfect labor market and show that during the transitional dynamics the imperfections of the labor market negatively influence the output growth rate. In particular, the model implies that centralized bargaining is likely to set a national minimum wage that is too high with respect to the labor productivity of the less developed regions, resulting in a negative impact on their per capita output growth. We test the implications of the model on a regional panel data set using the GMM framework. Both our market distortion measure and the unemployment rate are found to significantly lower the growth rate of per capita output.     

Migration Under Uncertainty: “Try Your Luck” or “Wait and See”

Two types of uncertainty enter into the migration decision. First, current conditions in the destination region may not be observable. Second, the future evolution of conditions in both the origin and destination regions may be unknown. The first type of uncertainty can encourage speculative or “try your luck” migration, whereas uncertainty about the future acts in the opposite direction, deterring relocation. This paper presents a dynamic optimizing model of migration that incorporates both types of uncertainty. The model shows that in equilibrium uncertainty about the future is likely to be more important than uncertainty about present conditions in the decision to relocate.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM OF SPATIAL PRODUCT AND LABOR MARKETS*

ABSTRACT A simple general equilibrium model relates spatial product markets and spatial labor markets. The firm is treated as being a spatial monopolist or as a Löschian competitor in the output market and as a spatial monopsonist in the labor market. Derived free spatial demand and free regional labor supply are defined, and their properties examined. The model provides the framework for analyzing the impact of a technological improvement in labor productivity on the structure of the spatial markets. The impact of entry on spatial labor supply is an important determinant of whether or not entry lowers wages and raises output prices. Unlike the spaceless competitive paradigm, zero-profit long-run equilibrium can occur in a space economy under conditions of increasing returns to scale.     

LOCAL INPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: 1972–2002*

ABSTRACT This research analyzes manufacturing growth and decline across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions during the 1972–2002 period. We decompose real value added growth across local labor market areas in the lower 48 U.S. states into contributions from labor, capital, and total factor productivity. We then estimate a model describing the long‐run growth of labor, capital, and productivity and find that increased productivity increases the growth of labor and capital, as well as a positive correlation between labor and capital stock growth. We also find evidence that human capital investment and agglomeration economies encourage productivity growth, while unionization discourages it.     

ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS OF SETTLEMENT IN THE KMA

A paper devoted to demographic and labor-related issues in the development of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly focuses on the need to improve labor productivity and services provision (particularly health care) in emerging industrial nodes of the complex. Such measures are expected both to promote labor retention and reduce labor inputs necessary to achieve the same amount of work. A key element of future labor strategy, given current low levels of natural increase within the region, is the recruitment and retention of labor from outside the region and the planned development of settlement to reduce negative environmental impacts (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

MEASURING CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO INTERREGIONAL AGRICULTURAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENTIALS: A JOINT PROFIT FORMULATION*

ABSTRACT Using Taylor series approximations of joint profit functions, a methodology is outlined to quantify interregional differentials in the Canadian agriculture sector by region and to quantify the contributing factors to regional labor productivity differences. These contributing factors are output price differentials–both crop and livestock, differentials in “land and buildings” capital deepening, “other” capital deepening, energy prices, other material prices, and efficiency. The joint profit formulation permits the analysis of effects of regional specific output price and output mix differentials.     

100年来东北地区经济地域格局的演变

东北地区经济地域格局的形成与发展受区域环境与经济成本的双重约束。基于100年来东北地区交通网络化过程分析,通过统计分析与现代GIS空间分析方法相结合,作者探讨不同时间序列东北地区的主要经济、社会发展特征,重点分析了37个城市区域的人口、经济等的空间集聚与边缘化特征以及土地利用变化、城市空间扩展等,揭示东北地区不同时期经济地域格局的演化机制,并预测其基本走向。