Russian Investment in the Commonwealth of Independent States

The paper by three RAND Corporation specialists analyzes the extent, rationale, and role of Russian investment in other member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Based on a unique, comprehensive survey, it evaluates differences between Russian and Western investors—in particular, the effects of Russian business practices in promoting or retarding reforms directed at expanding market activities, improving governance, and reducing corruption. The authors also assess the extent of Russian government involvement in investment decisions and explore whether that government has an operational agenda for encouraging investment in other countries of the CIS. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F21, F23, O18. 4 figures, 4 tables, 37 references, 2 appendices.     

The United States, The United Nations and Iraq: 'Multilateralism of a kind'

Much is made of the need for any second war against Iraq (following Desert Storm of 1991) to be sanctioned by a resolution of the UN Security Council, approved necessarily by all five Permanent Members. Yet only two of the five, the USA and the UK, show any enthusiasm for renewed war in the Persian Gulf; and British policy is undeniably following rather than leading American actions on the diplomatic and military fronts. What are the sources of this American policy? Some critics say oil; the latest arguments of proponents invoke humanitarian concerns; somewhere between the two are those who desire ‘regime change’ to create the economic and political conditions in which so‐called western political, economic and social values can flourish. To understand the present crisis and its likely evolution this article examines American relations with Iraq in particular, the Persian Gulf more generally and the Middle East as a region since the Second World War. A study of these international relations combined with a critical approach to the history of American actions and attitudes towards the United Nations shows that the United States continues to pursue a diplomacy blending, as occasion suits, the traditional binaries of multilateralism and unilateralism—yet in the new world‐wide ‘war on terrorism’. The question remains whether the chosen means of fighting this war will inevitably lead to a pyrrhic victory for the United States and its ad hoc allies in the looming confrontation with Iraq.     

美国与1966年联合国中国代表权问题

1964年以后,国际社会支持中国恢复在联合国席位的力量日益增强。在1966年联合国关于中国代表权问题的讨论中,为阻止中国进入联合国,美国投入了极大的精力。在这一过程中,美国及其盟国和蒋介石集团发生了尖锐的矛盾,经过讨价还价,美国在盟国的压力下作了相应的让步,美蒋最终达成妥协,中国仍然被排除在联合国之外。     

The Impact of Global Economic Crisis on Remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States

Two European geographers and an economist analyze the impact of the 2008-2009 global economic recession on remittances in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Drawing on balance-of-payments data as well as information on money transfers to and from the region, they detail the annual growth of remittances since 2001, illustrating the growing importance of this income stream to a number of countries in the region. Using quarterly data, they then provide details of the impact of the financial crisis on remittances starting with the 2007 credit crunch and intensifying with the collapse of global markets in 2008. Based on the impact of the 1998 Russian Crisis, they suggest that by 2012, remittances to the region could fall to only one-third the 2008 level, and that a return to pre-crisis levels of remittances could take almost a decade. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F240, J610, O180. 4 figures, 6 tables, 47 references.     

Selected Characteristics of Soviet Foreign Trade and Implications for the Foreign Trade of the Commonwealth of Independent States

This paper provides observations on recent patterns of the Soviet Union's foreign trade in the context of factor endowment trade theory and two models drawn from the new trade theory. Empirical analysis indicates that recent Soviet foreign trade was not based on differing factor intensities between Soviet goods and the those of the rest of the world. Instead, the recent geography of Soviet foreign trade suggests that it conformed more to the trade in differentiated products expected under the new trade theory. These results suggest that Soviet foreign trade had developed in such a way that, at least with respect to merchandise trade, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has a strong potential for fairly rapid integration within the group of industrial countries.     

美国与联合国中国代表权问题

对致力于推动中美关系正常化的尼克松与基辛格而言,如何处理联合国中国代表权问题似乎颇为棘手。实际上,与北京改善关系是他们处理此问题的战略前提,如何避免美国国内保守阵营的攻击则是两人制定具体战术的出发点,至于蒋介石政权的反应则基本不在他们的考虑范围内。1971年中国成功恢复在联合国的合法席位,虽与尼克松政府的相关政策不无关系,但其根本原因则在于中国自身,即只要中国不发生内乱,任何力量都无法阻止其加入联合国的步伐。而只要北京不让步,台北当局被驱逐出联合国就是必然的结局。     

Detour to Europe: Enlargement,Southeast Europe,and the EU's External Dynamic

An American geographer with extensive field and research experience in Southeast Europe examines the implications of "enlargement fatigue" for Southeast European states aspiring to EU accession. He argues that progress toward EU enlargement into Southeast Europe and further integration through the EU Constitution is no longer restricted to internal (intra-EU) dynamics of widening and deepening, but rather must be complemented by an "external dynamic" involving a coherent EU foreign policy. This "external dynamic" would focus on promoting peace and stability on EU borders and quelling the external factors contributing to popular dissent within EU against expansion and integration. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F02, O15, O18, O19. 1 figure, 41 references.