INTERPRETING SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ORIGIN‐DESTINATION FLOW MODELS

Spatial interaction or gravity models have been used to model flows that take many forms, for example population migration, commodity flows, traffic flows, all of which reflect movements between origin and destination regions. We focus on how to interpret estimates from spatial autoregressive extensions to the conventional regression‐based gravity models that relax the assumption of independence between flows. These models proposed by LeSage and Pace ( 2008 , 2009 ) define spatial dependence involving flows between regions. We show how to calculate partial derivative expressions for these models that can be used to quantify these various types of effect that arise from changes in the characteristics/explanatory variables of the model.     

ISSUES IN SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT.  Misspecified functional forms tend to produce biased estimates and spatially correlated errors. Imposing less structure than standard spatial lag models while being more amenable to large datasets, nonparametric and semiparametric methods offer significant advantages for spatial modeling. Fixed effect estimators have significant advantages when spatial effects are constant within well-defined zones, but their flexibility can produce variable, inefficient estimates while failing to account adequately for smooth spatial trends. Though estimators that are designed to measure treatment effects can potentially control for unobserved variables while eliminating the need to specify a functional form, they may be biased if the variables are not constant within discrete zones.     

SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF ORIGIN‐DESTINATION FLOWS*

ABSTRACT Standard spatial autoregressive models rely on spatial weight structures constructed to model dependence among n regions. Ways of parsimoniously modeling the connectivity among the sample of N=n² origin‐destination (OD) pairs that arise in a closed system of interregional flows has remained a stumbling block. We overcome this problem by proposing spatial weight structures that model dependence among the N OD pairs in a fashion consistent with standard spatial autoregressive models. This results in a family of spatial OD models introduced here that represent an extension of the spatial regression models described in Anselin (1988) .     

ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,KNOWLEDGE FLOWS,AND INNOVATION IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS

High growth and progressive regions possess a culture that promotes innovation. Innovation depends on a region's ability to use its own existing knowledge and knowledge generated elsewhere. This paper demonstrates the importance of the ability to absorb external knowledge in explaining innovation productivity for 106 U.S. metropolitan areas. Using a spatial interaction model of patent citation flows with origin and destination dependence, the destination fixed‐effects coefficients provides a measure of a region's absorptive capacity. We identify local conditions that shape a region's absorptive capacity and demonstrate it has a positive and significant impact on innovation productivity.     

The determinants of labor migration in Egypt

The factors which affect individual decisions with regard to geographic movement in Egypt are examined and the magnitude in which each factor exerts its influence on aggregate geographic labor supply adjustments is estimated. The spatial unit used in the study is the administrative region, of which there are 25. No effort is made to esimate the impact which migration has had on the origin or destination region. The migrant will presumably choose that destination which, given his information, the migrant thinks will be best. The model which is employed attempts to explain gross interregional migration without the explicit introduction of an individual decision function. Rather, migration is related to certain aggregate proxy variables. Among the independent variables employed in the analysis are (origin and destination) income, education, urbanization, and population. The other explanatory variable used is the distance between region i and region j. The migration measure employed refers to cumulative male migration which occurred prior to 1960; the independent variables are defined for a given point in time (1960). The independent variables explain a reasonably large percentage of the variance in migration between regions in Egypt. All variables were significant at the 5% level or better. The findings indicate that distance acts as an important impediment to migration. Migration is away from low wage and toward high wage regions, which may have contributed to a narrowing of regional wage differentials. Migrants are attracted to regions which have large populations and to regions which have a large percentage of urban to total population. A tendency exists for migrants to come from regions with large populations. There is also some tendency for migrants to come from regions which have a relatively large urban population. Migrants do not appear to come from regions with high educational levels.     

Intervening Opportunities, Competing Searchers, and the Intrametropolitan Flow of Male Youth Labor

This paper analyzes the determinants of the journey-to-work commuting patterns for male teenage workers within a single local labor market: the Oakland Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area. Controlling for the intervening opportunities and the intervening labor supply between a given origin and destination reduces the estimated negative effect of distance on the interzonal flow of labor by nearly 90 percent. Nonetheless, physical distance has a significant and substantial negative effect on intrametropolitan youth labor flows. Despite the high correlation between intervening opportunities and intervening competing workers, both spatial variables have sizable, and independent, effects on labor flows.     

云南省旅游线路网络与空间结构特征

以云南省目的地网络为例,基于社会网络分析视角和方法,收集团队线路报价单和自助游客网络游记,构建旅游线路整体网和个体网评价指标体系,探讨其网络结构与空间结构特征。结果发现:①云南旅游线路网络密度较低,发展不均衡,存在明显的核心-边缘结构;昆明居绝对核心地位,大理、丽江、西双版纳、迪庆、保山具有一定的网络竞争优势,其余目的地网络地位较低。②线路网络空间分布呈现"西密东疏、北密南疏"的整体特征,空间流向表现为对热点旅游线路节点明显的集聚特性。③每个个体网节点之间依托旅游线路关系都可形成一个独立闭合的回路,方便旅游者依据各个体网结构特征结合节点具体的地理位置,选择合适的门户、中转和离境目的地。     

甘肃旅游资源类型及其空间结构研究

对旅游资源类型及其地域组合、空间结构规律的研究是进行旅游资源开发利用和旅游规划的基础。在分析甘肃旅游资源形成的自然和社会历史文化因素的基础上,利用统计(SPSS)和地信软件(GIS),对甘肃旅游资源类型的地域组合和空间结构进行了定量的分析。首先对甘肃旅游资源以县域为单位,结合甘肃旅游资源特点,参照郭来喜等新拟的旅游资源分类系统,选取23个景型指标,依据其在景区的重要程度分别赋属性值,经专家打分,最后得出各单位景区的各景型指标的属性值。在此基础上把景区的各个景型要素视为多维空间的数轴,由属性值构成指标空间,每个景区都是一个向量。在多维空间中有一个数据点,依据"点"与"点"间的距离进行系统聚类,将全省旅游资源分为5个聚类;然后依据旅游规划的最大福利原则,进行旅游景点的空间聚类分区,将甘肃旅游资源分为7个区,然后将上述聚类和空间聚类在地图上进行叠加,研究其空间组合规律。得出甘肃旅游资源的类型空间组合特点;最后对甘肃旅游资源集中性进行探讨,得出甘肃旅游资源有沿交通线和河流的线状集中、依据中心地级别的等级集中、依据某个中心节点的节点集中和大的区域集中特征。     

长三角企业经营管理人才空间分布及其地理流动网络——基于上市公司董监高团队数据分析

在全球化与知识经济时代的双重背景下，人才尤其是高端人才已然成为衡量区域创新能力与经济发展水平的重要指标，其空间分布与流动趋势开始引起学术界的关注。基于人才履历大数据，应用履历分析、社会网络分析与修正型复合指标划分方法，对长三角地区企业经营管理人才空间分布及其流动网络进行了探究。结果表明：①企业经营管理人才空间分布具有明显地域差异，主要集中于沿海沿江地区，且空间集聚态势日益强化；②企业经营管理人才流动网络结构层级显著，网络链接空间上呈“Z”型分布；人才流动整体呈现出低流动性、“一主四副”结构、集中性、均衡性、极核交互与邻域渗透、跨区域性6大特征；③结合流动方向与活跃程度划分出四种人才流动地域类型，总体呈“破碎化”特征。为合理制定城市人才政策、促进区域高质量一体化发展提供科学借鉴与参考。     

PLACE‐BASED ATTRIBUTES AND SPATIAL EXPENDITURE BEHAVIOR IN TOURISM

In recent discussions on local sustainable development, notions like “local for local” and “home bias” have often played a role. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether preferences for specific place‐based attributes might constrain or support tourism participation and tourism destination choice of distinct socioeconomic groups of visitors. To test this proposition, a large data set from the Italian Households Budget Survey for the period 1997–2007 has been used and, by means of the double‐hurdle model, tourism participation and expenditure are modeled over the life‐cycle of tourists. These data are next merged with location‐specific attributes including natural amenities and infrastructural and regional‐economic context variables. Our results show that location‐specific or place‐based characteristics affect intra‐ and interregional tourism differently, as well as destination choices. Regional differences between residents in two different macroareas in Italy (North and Center‐South) are investigated. Location‐specific characteristics may be either push or constraint factors for tourism participation. For families living in the North, participation in the tourism market is supported by the tourist characteristics of their home region. For families living in the central and southern regions however, economic conditions of the area where they reside appear to be more significant.     

旅游流空间模式基本理论:问题分析及其展望

旅游流是旅游地理学的基本问题,而旅游流空间模式的研究,自20世纪50年代以来则是旅游流研究的热点问题。通过文献分析法,本文将旅游流空间模式基本理论梳理为圈层结构理论、核心边缘理论、空间扩散理论。在此基础上,揭示其存在的若干问题,包括研究中存在的"区域视角"和"旅游者个体视角"混淆的认知问题、旅游客源地和旅游目的地在区域视角下如何界定的问题、空间模式研究中广泛存在的"二元陷阱"问题、区域间旅游职能分化及其分化程度尚无科学分析的问题等。文末对未来研究进行了展望,以期从理论意义上深化旅游流基本问题的建构。需指出的是,旅游流作为"非工作流"的一种,其"流现象"、"流空间"和"流效应"同样可适用于其它形式的"流研究"。     

珠江三角洲客、货运量的空间演化研究

本文分析了改革开放以来珠江三角洲地区客运量、货运量的总体变化特点。根据珠江三角洲各县市客运量与货运量在珠江三角洲地区各自所占的比重,选取了1980、1985、1990、1995、1998五个时间段,分析客运量与货运量在珠江三角洲地区的空间分布形态。     

基于新地理信息技术的南京市游客流动性空间特征研究

利用新地理信息技术,采集500个游客GPS地理标记照片,运用GIS空间分析方法,分析游客在南京城市内部及其与长三角其它城市空间流动特性,并提炼游客空间行为一般模式。发现:①南京城市内部旅游流在主城区集聚,整体上呈现中心城区向四周扩散的趋势;且在空间形态上形成小型化、斑块化的布局特征。②南京与长三角周边城市的线形路线以点-点模式为主导,地域模式以便利的同城市中心流动为多数,其旅游流流动模式与已有典型模式基本吻合,同时长三角地区旅游流呈现等级扩散特征。     

国外旅游线路空间模式研究进展

旅游线路空间模式实质上是游客在目的地区域对停留空间和消费空间的理性选择与线性组合,是具有典型空间属性的社会文化地理现象和经济地理现象,涉及了作为旅游景点和旅游目的地的点状地理要素和作为旅游线路的线状地理要素以及旅游目的地体系构成的区域等面状地理要素。从文献综述的角度对不同尺度旅游线路模式的空间模型、目的地类型、游客旅行行为特征、模式选择影响因素以及理论基础进行了总结,在此基础上结合国内研究对旅游线路模式今后的研究方向提出了建议。     

SPATIAL CONVERGENCE OF REGIONS REVISITED: A SPATIAL MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PANEL APPROACH*

ABSTRACT This paper argues that one should account for the endogeneity of important explanatory variables and the initial differences in technological efficiency when analyzing spatial income convergence among regions. In addition, the approach of Wooldridge (2005), who proposes a convenient solution to the initial condition problem in dynamic panels, proves to be fruitful. In a panel of 211 European regions observed from 1980 to 2005, the estimated speed of convergence is substantially higher, on average, than the legendary 2 percent found in many cross‐section studies. Moreover, it exhibits pronounced variation across regions due to factor mobility and knowledge spillovers.     

区域旅游:空间结构及其研究进展

区域旅游的空间结构涉及内容复杂。文章在对国内外研究进行综述的基础上,首先导入了区域旅游的概念,从旅游空间要素的识别与分析入手,接受了Pearce Douglas的观点,认为区域旅游供给的五大空间影响要素:吸引物、交通、住宿、支持设施和基础设施。从旅游规划、基本距离、旅游地区位等角度对旅游空间结构及其研究进展进行了阐释。指出由于缺乏范式的指引,国内外对区域旅游规划的研究体系较为松散,绝大多数研究者被实践性问题或者潮流牵着走。对区域旅游活动发生地的区位进行考查,显示出对城市这一空间经济实体的极大依赖。同时,指出旅游地宏观区位因子和可进入性是衡量旅游地发展潜力的主要因素。运用TDD理论对西安旅游目的地区域的空间结构进行了解释。     

GRAVITY AND SPATIAL STRUCTURE: THE CASE OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION IN MEXICO*

ABSTRACT The estimation of gravity models of internal (aggregate) place‐to‐place migration is plagued with endogeneity (omitted‐variable) biases if the unobserved effects of spatial structure are not accounted for. To address this econometric problem, this paper presents a more general specification of the gravity model, which allows for (bilateral) parameter heterogeneity across individual migration paths—along with (unilateral) origin‐ and destination‐specific effects. The resultant “three‐way fixed‐effects” (3FE) model is applied for an analysis of interstate migration in Mexico based on cross‐sectional data. To overcome parameter‐dimensionality problems (due to limited or incomplete information), the 3FE model is estimated using the Generalized Maximum Entropy (GME) estimator. The empirical implications of this new modeling strategy are illustrated by contrasting the 3FE‐GME estimates with those for the traditional and two‐way fixed‐effects (2FE) models. The former are far more plausible and intuitively interpretable than their traditional and 2FE counterparts, with parameter estimates changing in expected directions. The (average) effect of the migrant stock is markedly smaller than usually estimated, providing a more realistic measure of network‐induced migration. Migration outflows from centrally located origins have significantly steeper distance decay. Path‐specific distance effects exhibit directional asymmetries and spatial similarities.     

TESTING FOR SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM USING HAPPINESS DATA

Happiness data are rarely used in regional and urban analysis, but it is a prime data set for testing the assumption of spatial equilibrium, the key assumption in the field of urban economics. In this paper, we explore the relationship between regional happiness and one‐year lagged change in population growth rates for the nine census regions in the United States using data on reported well‐being from National Opinion Research Center's annual General Social Survey. We observe that, while there is evidence of spatial disequilibrium during recessions and in the long run, happier regions generally experience higher population growth rates indicating a movement (or tendency) toward spatial equilibrium.     

苏州市旅游者目的地消费支出空间分布特征研究

基于2003年江苏省国内游客抽样调查资料,选择以苏州为目的地的来自188个地级市的3337份有效游客样本,在综合考虑社会经济要素的基础上,采用相关分析等统计学方法进行研究,结果显示:旅游者在苏州市的目的地消费支出空间分布特征曲线分为两个阶段:递增阶段和停滞阶段。采用同样的方法对江苏省内游客样本进行了研究,结果验证了这种空间分布特征的可靠性。从不同细分消费项目角度的进一步研究发现,住宿、餐饮消费项目对总体消费的空间分布特征贡献最大,娱乐消费项目对总体消费的空间分布特征贡献较大,而其它消费项目贡献不显著。     

信息时代区域空间结构构成要素分析

进入20世纪90年代以来,信息技术对区域与城市社会、经济及文化系统影响迅速加深,从而使区域与城市空间结构正经历着巨大的变革。本文首先回顾了经典的空间结构构成要素分析,然后对信息技术影响下的空间结构的点、线、面在内涵及形态上的相应变化进行了解释。对于点要素而言,其规模、功能、地位及不同点之间的联系都发生了变化。而线要素的变化主要表现在信息技术促使了信息流对空间结构作用的强化,不同网络之间的互动日益重要。这些又导致面要素出现了如智能区域等新的空间组合模式。最后,指出了空间结构的成长与变化是与特定社会经济环境相联系的,需要针对特定地区进行具体分析。