从灾害经济学角度对“三年自然灾害”时期的考察

1959～1961年我国经历了“三年经济困难”时期。关于其主要成因,1978年前一直错误地完全归咎于三年自然灾害。但近年来国内外又发表了一系列文章,认为这三年“风调雨顺”,根本没有自然灾害,“人祸”即决策错误是唯一的原因。本文根据对灾情、受灾面积等资料图表的分析,证实这三年发生了持续的严重自然灾害;同时分析了各种决策错误带来的不同影响,重点把粮食作为决定国家经济兴衰的生命线和因果关系链的比较指数,用计量方法分析当时农村因灾减产、因决策错误减产、因高征购而减少粮食存量之间的比例状况。本文的结论是:从农业粮食减产因素看,自然灾害略大于决策错误;从农村一个时期的集中缺粮情况因素看,决策错误影响远大于自然灾害,可以说是“三分天灾,七分人祸”。     

以改革的精神认识党内民主的内涵

以改革的精神认识党内民主的内涵,一方面要正确认识传统的在党内民主方面的误区和局限,这主要体现在：民主集中制中,轻视或忽视民主是集中的基础;轻视或忽视党内民主作为目的的作用;轻视或忽视党内民主的制度形态;不注重下层党组织内的民主。另一方面要科学把握党内民主的时代内涵,这主要体现在：党内民主是党内集中的基础;党内民主是手段与目的的统一;党内民主是个系统工程;要注重上层党内民主的同时注重下层党内民主的发展。     

论反右派斗争对"大跃进"运动的影响

反右斗争对当代中国历史的影响是多方面的,就其与紧随其后的“大跃进”运动的相互关系来说,至少在如下几个方面有着直接的因果联系：对知识分子的沉重打击,为“大跃进”运动中普遍忽视和不尊重科学与客观规律埋下了祸根,并为唯意志论的张扬提供了条件;进一步助长了报喜不报忧的虚报浮夸风气的滋生与蔓延,使错误得以延续更长时间,并且加重了困难的严重程度;助长了党的主要领导人对社会主义建设盲目乐观和盲目决策的情绪;强化了党内在社会主义建设方略上的“左”倾错误。     

胡锦涛关于党内民主思想初探

胡锦涛同志关于党内民主建设的思想主要涉及到对党内民主功能的多维揭示;对党内民主发展思路的规划设计;对尊重党员主体地位和保障党员民主权利问题的理性思考;对党内民主建设路径的科学选择。     

七千人大会与领袖接班人问题

研究领袖接班人问题,1962年年初的七千人大会是一个不容忽视的关节点。七千人大会导致毛泽东产生"修正主义要推翻我们"的危机感,引发了他对接班人问题的严重关注;埋下了毛刘冲突的种子,刘少奇的接班人地位开始动摇;林彪在七千人大会上的讲话用心良苦,深得毛心,由此在接班人序列中的地位急剧窜升。     

浅析十七届四中全会对党内民主建设的创新

中共十七届四中全会关于党内民主建设提出了很多新思想、新观点,主要有：党内民主是党的生命,集中统一是党的力量保证;在党内民主建设中要坚持和完善党的领导制度;以保障党员民主权利为根本,以加强党内基层民主建设为基础;完善党代表大会制度和党内选举制度;完善党内民主决策机制等。     

“文化大革命”初期的杨效椿

1965年10月,时任中共安徽省委常委、省委组织部副部长的杨效椿,接替刘征田任合肥市委第一书记。当时,就全国政治经济形势来说,1962年1月中央扩大的工作会议(即七千人大会)以后,"左"的风潮得到了遏制,国民经济实行"调整、巩固、充实、提高"的八字方针,工农业生产逐渐恢复,人民生活也逐步改善。就安徽的政治经济形势来说,七千人大会上,在刘少奇的主持下,揭发了省委、首先是第一书记曾希圣的错误:大刮"五风",饿死了几百万人;搞"一言堂",压制民主;搞冤假错案,把敢于讲真话的干部,打成"右派分子"、"右倾机会主义分子";封锁中央,不如实反映情况……安徽省委的盖子终于揭开了!     

“七千人大会”的勇气与遗憾

1962年1月11日至2月7日,为进一步纠正“大跃进”以来工作中的错误,总结经验,统一认识,切实贯彻调整国民经济的方针,以便迅速扭转国民经济的困难局面,中共中央在北京召开扩大的中央工作会议,参加会议的有中央、各中央局、各省市自治区党委以及地委、县委、重要厂矿企业和军队的负责干部,共七千余人,故称“七千人大会”。“七千人大会”,是我党在建国后比较冷静客观地分析中国国情,坦率承认社会主义建设过程中的失误,并勇于作自我批评的一次重要会议。然而,由于主客观的多种复杂原因,这次会议也给我们留下了一些遗憾。今天,当…     

陆定一晚年的几点反思

由陆定一同志长子陆德整理的《陆定一晚年的几个反思》,一共十部分,这十部分的标题是：一、如何对待历史问题;二、毛主席犯的错误,我也有份;三、对林彪提出“四个念念不忘”的反思;四、惩治党内腐败问题,要有外力;五、党的“双百”方针,应该用“二元论”来解释;六、对自由、民主的认识;七、共产主义事业是个漫长的历史进程,我们过去理解得过于幼稚,犯了急躁病;八、共产主义事业必定会胜利;九、中国应该走一条不同于欧美“自由市场原教宗”理论的第三条路,来创建自己的改革发展模式;十、最终遗言。经作者同意定稿．本刊先摘发其中五部分,以飨读者。     

社会主义民主的分歧与整合

社会主义民主,也存在诸如选举、决策、监督等方面的分歧。这种分歧的存在及其不恰当处理方式会威胁民主本身。一个经常围绕在身边的声音——"我们需要民主吗",就是这种威胁存在是象征。社会主义民主之所以存在分歧,其原因主要是公民利益有别、价值认识不同以及民主程序本身的不完备性。要整合民主过程的分歧,根本的途径还在于:培养民主过程建制化的道德基础——"民主人格"的品德;组织民主过程建制化的社会基础——广泛多样的市民社会;确立民主过程建制化的制度——宪政秩序体系,以程序平等、程序控制、程序公开、程序制约、民主激励等制度规范为民主保驾护航。     

Social Movements,Political Elites and Political Opportunity Structures: The Case of the Woman Suffrage Movement from 1890-1920

Many contemporary theories of party leadership derive their concepts from organization theory and economic theories of rational choice. They stress the institutional contexts that shape leadership possibilities and the relationship between members (principals) and leaders (agents) in shaping leadership decisions. Both the macro (institutional context) and micro (principal-agent) theories assume that the main role of party leaders is to marshal majority support for legislation on which the party takes a position. Focussing on party position legislation, however, provides only a partial view of party leadership. This article expands this perspective by considering the Simpson-Mazzoli immigration reform bill, in which party leaders avoided taking a clear policy stand and pursued other interests instead. In broadening the assumptions inherent in organization theory to include behavior beyond taking party policy stands, we uncover leadership roles that are missed by those who adopt the policy-centered approach. Applying other organization theory concepts, we broaden principal-agent theories by explaining divergent leadership roles in the consideration of non-party position legislation as behavior that is typical for legislative leadership. We conclude that the nature of non-party position legislation provides party leaders a greater latitude to diverge from their expected party leadership roles and to behave according to their different strategic situations, district and state interests, philosophies, and personalities.     

House Appropriations After the Republican Revolution

This article applies the theory of “conditional party government” (CPG) to the interaction between the majority party and the Appropriations Committee in the period following the Republican Revolution of 1995. We extend the analysis of Aldrich and Rohde (2000b) by examining how actions within the committee have changed over time and analyzing whether behavior and outcomes continue to match the expectations of CPG theory, particularly with respect to the times in which power in Congress switched from the Republicans to the Democrats and back. The conditions of the CPG theory continued to be met so that we can continue to test the theory's predictions. We show that following the Republican Revolution, the role of the party remained paramount and the party leadership maintained its influence over the direction of policy. While in the majority, both parties used the Appropriations Committee as a vehicle for policy change and the party leadership monitored committee actions, either by blocking policy shifts away from what the majority party wanted or facilitating changes in the desired direction.     

关于宋教仁评价问题的再探讨

宋教仁是一位颇有争议的清末民初时期的政治人物。在当时的社会历史条件下,他投身民主革命和民主政治建设,并从中传播西方政党观念,组建政党,推行政党政治,虽在民初过分注重议会竞选,却也不可藉此否定其无可替代的历史地位。宋教仁是辛亥革命的领导和中华民国的创立之一,是民初政党政治最主要的倡导和先行之一。与孙中山等同时代人比较,认为宋教仁是民初政党政治身体力行的第一人,也不过分。     

Ideological Primary Competition and Congressional Behavior

Abstract

Primary challenges on an incumbent’s more extreme flank have become increasingly common in congressional elections. We explore the consequences on the legislative behavior of successful incumbents following these types of challenges. We propose that the effect of extreme ideological primary challenges is conditioned on whether the member belongs to the majority or the minority party. We test our expectations on primary elections from 2000 to 2012 and corresponding changes in voting behavior in the next Congress. We find that incumbents in the majority party who have defeated an extreme ideological primary challenge are less likely to support their party, especially on key votes. We expect this reaction is because they fear appearing too moderate and thereby encouraging another extreme ideological primary challenge. We find that incumbents in the minority party who face an extreme ideological challenge do not change their general voting behavior, but are more likely to vote with their party on key votes.     

After Cloture: Vote Switching,Credit Claiming,and Position Taking in the United States Senate

Vote switching in the United States Senate is not an uncommon occurrence. Nearly one in 10 cloture-final passage vote pairs involves senators switching their vote. We find that this inconsistency in voting behavior is a result of the combination of electoral pressures and the impact of the traceability of consequences in light of party forces and personal preferences. In general, we find that electorally vulnerable members of the majority party are more likely to engage in vote switching. The same is true of more electorally secure members of the minority party. However, the traceability of consequences is also a governing force in that electorally vulnerable members of the majority party are more likely to use vote switching as a credit claiming opportunity during periods of low media scrutiny. Electorally vulnerable members of the minority party are more likely to engage in position taking when there is greater media scrutiny.     

Identifying the Critical Members of the House of Representatives

This article combines the historical record of presidential-congressional relations with previous scholarly findings to develop a model that identifies the members of Congress whose support is critical to the president's ability to build enacting coalitions. It then analyzes the relationship between President Obama and the House of Representatives during the 113th Congress as a case study that demonstrates the model's utility. Conventional wisdom and political pundits suggest that presidents working in divided government will have impossible difficulty working with Congress, but history suggests otherwise. The president's ability to successfully build enacting coalitions during divided government requires him to perform two rather disparate tasks. First, the president must minimize the amount of presidential party members who cross party lines to vote against the president's position. Second, the president must entice at least some opposition party members to cross party lines and support the president's position. Using data from 1981 to 2015, I find that representatives’ behavior on presidential support votes are related to constituency-level presidential strength, electoral vulnerability, ideological moderation, and ideological extremity. I use these results to identify the critical members of the 113th Congress. When a majority of these critical members supported President Obama's positions his legislative efforts were successful. When a majority of these members opposed the president's positions, the House Republican majority defeated the president.     

论晚明东林党的舆论活动及其影响

晚明是中国古代舆论最活跃的时期,其中又以东林党的舆论力量最为显著。从万历初年到天启末年,东林党人的舆论活动经历了三个阶段。东林党围绕官员诠选、官员考察、对阁臣的批判、以学术促清议等方面开展了一系列舆论活动,其主张在邸报发抄、印刷刻传和书信交流等方式的扩散之下,迅速流通于士林。东林党以舆论为载体,形成了与朝廷对峙和对话的政治力量。东林党的舆论活动加剧了明政府的党争态势,加速了官僚系统的分裂,不利于政治局面的稳定。但东林党的舆论主导了当时的社会思潮,对社会风气尤其是士大夫的气节产生了一种鼓舞作用。     

The British Parliamentary Labour Party and the Government of Ireland Act 1920

Immediately after the First World War the British Labour Party was forced to reconsider its relationship with an increasingly militant Irish nationalism. This reassessment occurred at the same time as it was becoming a major political and electoral force in post‐war Britain. The political imperative from the party's perspective was to portray itself as a responsible, moderate and patriotic alternative governing party. Thus it was fearful of the potential negative impact of too close an association with, and perceived sympathy for, extreme Irish nationalism. This explains the party's often bewildering changes in policy on Ireland at various party conferences in 1919 and 1920, ranging from support for home rule to federalism throughout the United Kingdom to ‘dominion home rule’ as part of a wider evolving British Commonwealth to adopting outright ‘ self‐determination’ for a completely independent Ireland outside both United Kingdom and empire. On one aspect of its Irish policy, however, the party was adamant and united – its opposition to the partition of Ireland, which was the fundamental principle of Lloyd George's Government of Ireland Bill of 1920 which established Northern Ireland. Curiously, that aspect of Labour's Irish policy was never discussed in the party at large. All the running was made by the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in the house of commons in 1920. The PLP's outright opposition to the bill acted as balm throughout the wider party, binding together the confusing, and often contradictory, positions promulgated on the long‐term constitutional future of Ireland and its relationship with Britain.     

The misadventures of socialist anticommunism from the end of the war to the collapse of the Berlin Wall

Abstract

The article aims to highlight the features of socialist anticommunism in Italy from 1945 to 1991, with particular reference to Giuseppe Saragat and Bettino Craxi, and with regard to the intellectual activity of Ignazio Silone. Anticommunist socialists aimed at delegitimizing the communists, but they themselves were also delegitimized by the communist party of Palmiro Togliatti and Enrico Berlinguer. Naturally, the form of delegitimation changed over the years, from Saragat’s stance in the 1940s and early 1950s to his position later on. The kind of delegitimation carried on by Bettino Craxi’s socialist party was more successful, however, compared to the one implemented by Saragat’s small party. For this reason, it was fiercely opposed by Berlinguer and the communist party.     

Party registration choices as a function of the geographic distribution of partisanship: a model of `hidden partisanship' and an illustrative test

The Public Choice literature has identified conditions in which voters in multi-candidate contests would have an incentive to vote strategically rather than vote for the most preferred candidate or candidates. In the US, where party registration and party primaries play a critical role in the electoral process—especially in states with closed primaries—the existence of multiple layers of elections across constituencies can induce strategic falsification of party registration that is tied to the geographic distribution of electoral strength. Following V. O. Key, we should expect that a long history of one party dominance in local elections should encourage voters to register in the party whose elections are most determinative of electoral choices, even if that is not the party with which they most identify. However, in many states, while politics may be dominated by one party locally, there may be real two-party competition for at least some offices at the state level and for the presidency.We use a `natural experiment' to view the link between party registration and voting for president and obscure judicial offices in order to test the hypothesis that, for whichever party is the minority party in the local unit, party registration will understate the voting support in presidential or other statewide elections, where that party's candidates have a realistic chance to win. In the modern South this hypothesis can be shown to imply that the relationship between Republican party registration and vote shares for Republican candidates for president or statewide office ought to be curvilinear. To test this and other related hypotheses, we examine data on political units (e.g. counties) with considerable variation in party registration and concomitant variation in the extent of one-party dominance of local politics by looking at county level data from North Carolina for the presidential elections and obscure judicial elections in 1984 and 1996. As hypothesized, for the North Carolina data the relationship between party registration and voting can best be fit by a quadratic function, but the strength of the quadratic term is much less for the 1996 data, reflecting the increase in Republican registration and the success of local GOP candidates in the 1990s.