The New South Wales Election of 22 March 2003

Well before polling day, public commentators and political insiders thought the outcome of the March 2003 NSW election was clear: Labor would win. Seventy per cent of the polled public agreed, according to the Newspoll of 7–10 March (Newspoll 2003), as did those putting their money where their mouths were: Centrebet offered odds of 10:1 against for the Coalition $10.00 and 50:1 on for Labor (Daily Telegraph 13 March 2003). Even Prime Minister Howard, lending his support to NSW Liberal Leader John Brogden, did not predict a Liberal win (Australian Financial Review 12 March 2003). The main question of interest in the election was whether the Coalition would win enough seats to pose a threat to Labor in 2007. Secondary interest lay in whether the Greens would add to their recent series of strong election results. The election campaign was overshadowed by the war in Iraq. The outcome was decided far more by the politics of the preceding four years than by the short official campaign. Consequently, this commentary focuses on understanding the election in the context of NSW politics from 1999.     

Did the minority Gillard government keep its promises? A study of promissory representation in Australia

When the Gillard government formed a minority government in 2010 many commentators argued that the government would be unable to fulfil its mandate. Despite this, the Gillard government was able to pass a record amount of legislation – comparable to previous majority-led governments – suggesting the government was effective at negotiating legislative passage. Less understood is whether the Gillard government was able to keep its election promises given the constraints of minority government. This is an important empirical and normative question. In their most basic form elections are designed to allow the public to hold politicians and political parties to account for their past performance. Central to this is whether parties have fulfilled the promises they made at the previous election. But how do parties express election promises to citizens and are they likely to fulfil these promises? Does minority government status make a difference? We examine these questions in the first contemporary Australian study of promise fulfilment, examining promises made and promise fulfilment of the Gillard minority government (2010–2013). We adopt the methods of the Comparative Party Pledges Project (CPPP). Consistent with the international literature, we find that the Gillard government fulfilled most of its election promises suggesting minority government status did not have a large effect on promise fulfilment.     

The South Australian Election of 18 March 2006

The South Australian election on 18 March 2006 saw the Labor Party; led by Mike Rann, storm out from the shadows of minority government to record a decisive victory which has the potential to set a platform from which the party could govern for at least the next eight years. Labor won 28 of the 47 seats in the House of Assembly gaining 45.2% of first preference votes. However, the decisiveness of its victory in the Lower House was not matched by the result in the Legislative Council. Voters turned away from both major parties giving 4 of the 11 seats contested to minor parties and independents. This continued a trend that has been evident in South Australian elections for the last two decades, although on this occasion its dramatic acceleration was explained by the extraordinary result of the ‘No Pokies’ independent Nick Xenophon who won 23.5% of the vote and easily secured two quotas. The election campaign itself marked new heights in the trend towards presidential style campaigning on the part of the Labor Party which used extensive television advertising to make the most of its popular leader. The Liberals, on the other hand, lacked both a leader to counter Rann and the funds to match Labor's advertising budget. The election also saw the confirmation of Family First as a significant player in South Australian politics, and may mark the beginning of the end of the Australian Democrats. The Democrats failed to make any impact and were effectively replaced by the Greens, who in winning a seat in the Legislative Council enjoyed their first South Australian electoral success.     

Ideas from ‘across the ditch’? Wedge politics in the 2005 New Zealand election

The 2005 New Zealand election campaign saw the use by the opposition National Party of a racialised and highly divisive ‘wedge politics’. Tensions between Mäori and Pakeha that had previously been managed through care and compromise were inflamed by talk of a New Zealand mainstream and the need for ‘one law for all’. In the context of a difficult national debate about Mäori rights to foreshore and seabed, this talk had strong echoes of recent Australian political discourse. It also had the effect of dramatically increasing the National Party vote in the election, and this research note speculates that, in a different electoral system, this may have been enough to see National form government.     

Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections: Lessons from 2001

What is the best way to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three forecasting tools: opinion polls, economic models, and betting odds. Historically, we find that opinion polls taken close to the election are quite accurate, while economic models provide better medium-run forecasts. The November 2001 federal election largely follows this pattern, although the economic models provided more accurate projections than recorded through the 1990s. Against these, we compare betting odds, analysing a rich data source from one of Australia's largest bookmakers, Centrebet. The betting market not only correctly forecast the election outcome, but also provided very precise estimates of outcomes in a host of individual electorates. Betting fluctuations present an intriguing quantitative record of the shifting fortunes of the campaign. Particularly in marginal seats, the press may have better served its readers by reporting betting odds than by conducting polls. We conclude that the results of these three models can help determine how important the events of August and September 2001 were in deciding the outcome of the election.     

Forecasting Australian elections: 1993, and all that

The link between economic conditions and election outcomes is a pillar of social science. Voters prefer ‘better times’ to worse and reward or punish incumbents accordingly. We investigate the extent to which this truism holds in the Australian context, with particular emphasis on the 1993 result. While Australian election outcomes are generally not well predicted by prevailing economic conditions, we are impressed by the extent to which the 1993 election outcome is at odds with the state of the economy. In particular, we find Labor performed up to five percentage points better than expected in 1993, making this result one of the most exceptional election results ever observed in Australia. The sizeable electoral penalty typically accompanying large increases in unemployment was effectively nullified in 1993. We accurately predict the 1993 result (ex post) only if unemployment is considered electorally irrelevant. We conclude by suggesting a research agenda for better understanding the link between economic context and election outcomes in the Australian setting.     

A Call to Action: New Party Candidates and the 1931 General Election*

Sir Oswald Mosley established his New Party in early 1931. It proposed to cut across the party and class divides, with the objective of providing a ‘national’ solution to the economic crisis of the time. According to Mosley, the ‘old parties’– meaning the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Parties – had revealed themselves unable to adapt to the post‐war age. In their place, he argued, a modern organisation, based on youth, vitality and a scientifically reasoned economic plan, was needed to save Britain from terminal decline. Few heeded his call, and the party ultimately paved the way for the British Union of Fascists to emerge in 1932. Nevertheless, the New Party fought the general election of 1931, offering an unsuccessful but suitably intriguing challenge to the National coalition and Labour Party. This article will assess the New Party's election campaign, concentrating on those who briefly rallied to Mosley's appeal only to fall foul of the ballot box. In other words, it provides a case study of those who contributed to a dramatic electoral failure, and traces a significant stage along Mosley's journey to fascism.     

Tasmanian Forests,the Environment and Voting in the 2004 Australian Federal Election

The 2004 Australian federal election appeared to depart from the historical tendency for the Australian Labor Party to benefit electorally from adopting policies more sympathetic to environmental movement demands than those of the Liberal–National Coalition, when environmental issues have been prominent in election campaigns. This article assesses contending claims about the actual impact of environmental issues on the outcome of the 2004 election, and possible explanations for Labor's failure to gain a significant net electoral advantage from its environmental policies, in particular its commitment to preserve 240,000 hectares of native forest in Tasmania.     

Geography and Election Results: Disproportionality and Bias at the 1993–2004 Elections to the Australian House of Representatives

The Alternative Vote system used for elections to the Australian House of Representatives is generally believed to disadvantage the Australian Labor Party in contests with the Liberal and National parties. However, most analyses on which such conclusions are based over-simplify the situation by not separating out the translation of votes into seats according to whether the election outcome in a district is determined using the first-preference or two-party preferred (2PP) votes. Analyses of bias at five recent elections which recognise that separation find little bias against either party in the districts where the determination used the 2PP votes (i.e. no candidate received a majority of the first preferences), but considerable bias in those where the outcome was decided on first-preferences. Furthermore, that bias was not in one direction, but rather favoured the largest party in each of those contests. The reason for this is identified in the geography of support for the two parties, which produces the equivalent of a ‘cracked gerrymander’ in sufficient districts to have a significant impact on the outcome.     

How Would Jesus Vote? The Churches and the Election of the Rudd Government

The Coalition's clear victory over Labor at the 2004 federal election after prominent campaigning by conservative church-based groups – along with the election to the Senate of a member of the Family First party – seemed to many commentators to confirm the growing power of a ‘Religious Right’ in Australia. This paper argues that two features of the 2007 federal election campaign are impossible to square with the rise of the Religious Right thesis. First, Labor won in 2007 without shifting its leadership, policies or electoral strategy to suit the Christian Right. Second, the contributions of church groups to the 2007 election campaign were not dominated by a single perspective but covered a wide range of issues and expressed competing views on key policy issues. This pluralism allowed Kevin Rudd, the Labor Party and even the Greens room to present themselves favourably to significant groups of Christian voters. The 2007 election suggests that, rather than being dominated by a hegemonic Christian Right, church involvement in Australian electoral politics is pluralistic in character.     

Trade unions,the Australian Labor Party and the Trade–Labour Rights Debate

This paper examines the Australian trade union movement's campaign to convince the Australian Labor Party (ALP) to support the inclusion of core labour standards in international trade agreements. Despite historical affiliations, the Australian union movement has been unsuccessful in its attempts to influence the ALP. In contrast, the US union movement has convinced both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party to accept that core labour standards should be a part of the trade negotiating agenda. The reasons for the US unions' success on this issue are examined within the context of the changing relationship between the respective union movements and their traditional parliamentary allies. The need for Australian unions to examine and reassess their strategies by drawing lessons from the US experience, including the possibility of a changed relationship with the ALP, is discussed.     

Spatial and temporal effects in Mexican direct elections for the chamber of deputies

By using data of the elections for the Chamber of Deputies of 1997 and 2000 in Mexico, we fit spatial autologistic models with temporal effects to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects on those elections. The binary variable of interest is the one that indicates a win of the National Action Party (PAN) or the alliance that it formed. By spatial effect, we refer to the fact that neighbouring constituencies present dependence on their electoral results. The temporal effect refers to the existence of dependence, for the same constituency, of the result of the election with the result of the previous election. The model that we used to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects is the spatial autologistic model with temporal effects for which estimation is complex and requires simulation techniques. By defining an urban constituency as one that contains at least one population center of 200,000 inhabitants or more, among our principal results, we find that, for the Mexican election of 2000, the spatial effect is significant only when neighbouring constituencies are both urban. For the election of 1997, the spatial effect is significant independent of the type of neighbouring constituencies. The temporal effect is significant on both elections.     

Children and families: Relationships between family attitudes,household composition and voting in Australia

In the light of ongoing demographic trends (such as low fertility rates and growth of single-person households), some of the features of the 2004 Australian federal election outcomes and campaign raise the possibility that we might have seen the beginnings of a divide in voting behaviour based on family structure, particularly those aspects related to the presence of children. Relevant data from the 2004 Australian Election Study (AES) are quite limited, so I use data from both the 2004 AES and the 2003 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes to explore the relationships between federal voting and family structure, and attitudes towards children, parenting and families of different types. The results show effects on voting that apparently result from financial considerations related to the presence of children and others that are related to differences of values.     

Spot On: The Role of Political Advertising in Australia

During an election campaign, political advertising is not the only means by which the Australian political parties seek to persuade voters but it is 'the most expensive one, perhaps the most precise one and the only one over which the parties have complete control' (Mills 1986, 132). Over $30m is now spent on advertisements during federal elections, with up to 70% of the major parties' campaign budgets devoted to television advertising alone. When one considers that 90% of Australians are exposed to televised political advertising, the parties' control over these messages takes on particular significance. This article explores the apparently limited interest among academic analysts in political advertising in Australia, explains that advertising now has a central role in the political process and argues that this needs to be recognised in scholarly research.     

Ballots and billions: Clive Palmer's personal party

Founded and led by the billionaire businessman, Clive Palmer, the Palmer United Party (PUP) achieved what was arguably the best debut result of recent decades at the 2013 Australian federal election. This article examines PUP's ideology, organisation and campaigning strategies along with the implications of its experiences to date for Australian party politics. Based on an analysis of original party documents, policies, media communications and semi-structured interviews with PUP candidates and key figures across Australia, we find evidence of a party which is utterly dominated by its leader, which was deliberately never built to last, whose ideology cannot be easily classified and whose campaigning was well-funded but extremely disorganised. We conclude that its experience shows how more professionalised new personal parties in Australia should be able to do even better electorally in the future.     

Spatially Disaggregated Modelling of Voting Outcomes and Socio‐Economic Characteristics at the 2001 Australian Federal Election

This study uses GIS and spatial modelling to relate voting outcomes at the 2001 federal election for polling booths across Australia with the socio‐economic characteristics of polling booth catchment areas. The data and analysis used are more detailed and comprehensive than previous studies. It is conducted at a fine level of spatial disaggregation across the whole nation to examine voting outcomes for both major and minor political parties. Because the aim of the paper is to distinguish voting outcomes between political parties rather than to predict voting outcomes for particular political parties, a discriminant analysis is used rather than regression analysis. The statistical discriminant analysis identifies two main socio‐economic dimensions that are able to predict polling booth outcomes with a relatively high degree of accuracy. That analysis shows how, at the 2001 federal election, the middle ground, in terms of socio‐economic characteristics, was being claimed by the Liberal Party, Country Liberal Party, The Greens, and, to a lesser extent, by the Australian Labor Party. However, the Australian Democrats, National Party and One Nation had more distinctive constituencies, with the National Party and One Nation Party competing for areas with similar socio‐economic characteristics. Using GIS mapping tools, examples of actual and predicted polling booth voting outcomes are given, along with selected socio‐economic characteristics of booth catchments.     

Issue competition between Green and social democratic parties in majoritarian settings: the case of Australia

The emergence of green parties has injected new lines of competition into national party systems, with discernible issue competition effects for established, ideologically-proximate social democratic parties. Despite a burgeoning literature on green and social democratic issue competition tactics in settings where coalition government is common, we have less understanding of these same effects in settings where majority government is the norm. Using the case of the Australian Greens and the Australian Labor Party, we explore issue competition dynamics in a polity where the majoritarian electoral system reduces opportunities for coalition formation. We find that the absence of strong electoral imperatives for either party to enter coalitions has encouraged them to compete adjacent to one another, rather than in direct competition.     

Persuasion,Partisanship and Evaluations of National Conditions and Governmental Impact: An Experimental Study

The current study considers the circumstances under which opinions about national issue conditions and government impact on those conditions might be influenced. Using an experimental framework, we examine the effectiveness of messages on a variety of policy issues important to the 2015 Canadian Federal election campaign. The messages consist of a statement about the country’s performance on a variety of issues, accompanied by a relevant image, which together convey either a positive or negative message about issue conditions in Canada. We then evaluate the extent to which messages affect opinions about policy conditions in Canada as well as evaluations of government impact on these policy issues. Finally, we consider whether the effect of the messages is moderated by the partisan leanings of individual voters. We focus upon five policy areas that, we argue, were among the most germane to the 2015 election: the economy, health care, the environment, immigrants and minorities, and national security. Our findings have implications for the literature on issue-ownership, agenda-setting, opinion persuasion, and the attribution of responsibility for national performance.     

Earmarks and Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives

Popular treatments of earmarks abound with allegations that members of Congress use them to aid their reelection campaigns, but the academic literature has yet to examine whether earmarking influences elections. To begin to fill this void, we search for relationships between earmarking and several facets of electoral competition and outcomes in the 2008 and 2010 House elections. There are three principal findings. First, in both election years, active earmarkers faced weaker primary election competition than other members. Second, in 2008 there was a positive correlation between earmarking and campaign receipts. Third, both of these correlations exist only among Democrats. These findings suggest that earmarks critics might be correct in charging that members, particularly Democrats, benefit from the earmarks they place into spending bills.     

Electoral Impact of Televised Leaders' Debates on Australian Federal Elections

Since 1984, every Australian federal election campaign except 1987 has featured at least one televised debate between the leaders of the major parties. These debates have been the subject of considerable speculation, particularly in the popular press. However, initial enthusiasm and optimism has been replaced, in part, by skepticism and indifference about their impact. Although viewing audiences for the early debates were large, audiences have steadily declined in more recent campaigns. Although televised debates are ostensibly an established part of federal elections, their influence on individual vote choice and aggregate impact on the vote has received little academic attention. This paper considers each campaign since 1990 and, using data from The Australian Election Study series, it assesses the impact of leaders' debates on individual vote choice. It investigates whether the impact varies for different groups of the electorate, considering the role of partisan identification, as well as whether any influence of the debates extends beyond the actual viewing audience. Finally, it estimates the aggregate impact on the vote attributable to the debates.