The Determinants of Public Policy: What Matters and How Much

This article is a research synthesis addressing four questions critical to our understanding of the determinants of public policy. How often and how strongly do hypothetical determinants of policy—public opinion, interest groups, the party balance, and other factors—actually influence policy? Do some hypothetical determinants of policy have more influence than others? Does the way we measure policy affect our ability to explain it? And is there a connection between how strongly particular variables affect policy, and how much effort we devote to studying them? It turns out that variables hypothesized to influence policy more often than not have no effect. When variables do affect policy, researchers very seldom say anything about how much impact they have. Variables that convey the most information to policymakers about what the public wants have a greater impact than other variables, but it is less clear how the measurement of policy affects our findings. Researchers pay much attention to hypothetical determinants of policy unlikely to matter very much, and little attention to those likely to be the most important. Implications for future research are considered.     

Social capital determinants and labor market networks

We explore the links between determinants of social capital and labor market networks at the neighborhood level. We harness rich data taken from multiple sources, including matched employer–employee data with which we measure the strength of labor market networks, data on neighborhood homogeneity that has previously been tied to social capital, and new data—not previously used in the study of social capital—on the number and location of nonprofit sector establishments at the neighborhood level. We use a machine learning algorithm to identify the potential determinants of social capital that best predict neighborhood‐level variation in labor market networks. We find evidence suggesting that smaller and less centralized schools, and schools with fewer poor students, foster social capital that builds local labor market networks, as does a larger Republican vote share. The presence of establishments in a number of nonprofit‐oriented industries are identified as predictive of strong labor market networks, likely because they either provide public goods or facilitate social contacts. These industries include, for example, churches and other religious institutions, fire and rescue services including volunteer fire departments, country clubs and golf courses, labor unions, chamber music groups, hobby clubs, and schools.     

Labor Productivity in Western Europe 1975–1985: An Intercountry, Interindustry Analysis

Using intercountry input-output tables and disaggregated employment data, we decompose labor productivity growth between 1975 and 1985 in six Western European countries into partial effects of six determinants including changing international trade and changing final demand. To this end, new multiplicative decomposition formulas are derived and implemented. In a similar way, we study labor productivity changes in vertically integrated industries. The effects of structural change on convergence are investigated also. We see this paper as an attempt to merge the convergence literature with earlier single-country productivity-change decompositions using input-output data.     

Raise your voices! Civilian protest in civil wars

Under what conditions do protests occur in civil wars? Evidence from case studies suggests that protests can indeed play an important role in contexts of civil wars, with civilians using respective tactics both against the state and rebels. We argue that localities experiencing armed clashes are likely to see protest events in the same month. Civilians conduct protests due to battle-related changes in the local opportunity structures and grievances related to losses experienced through collateral damage. Using spatially disaggregated data on protest and battle events in African civil wars, we find support for our hypothesis that battles trigger civilian protests. This effect is robust to the inclusion of a comprehensive list of confounding variables and alternative model specifications, including the use of different temporal and spatial units. Our findings highlight the role of the civilian population and the spatial relationship between war events and protests in civil wars.     

Trade and the location of industries in the OECD and European Union

Trade and location theory identifies forces that could leadto locational dispersion (comparative advantage) or locationalconcentration (scale economies) in the face of globalizing markets,each with different consequences for specialization and theadjustment costs associated with integration. However, theseforces can play themselves out in very complex ways if locationalchange principally affects intermediate production. Moreover,effects of history may be important, if locational patternswhich exist prior to integration reflect either strong externaleconomies or, as we argue, strong institutionalized capacitiesto respond to more open markets. This could especially be thecase in the context of Europe, whose territories are generallyless specialized than the states of the USA. To see how thesedifferent effects are operating today, empirical measurementis required. Using a data set which allows changes in locationaldistribution of manufacturing industries in the OECD to be measured,we show that Europe does not seem to be ‘Americanizing’its economic geography. Many sectors are actually spreadingout in Europe, implying that the effects of history have remainedstrong up to this point. Specialization increases are weak inmost European economies as well. The OECD has a more complexpicture of spread and concentration. Some of the implicationsfor further research on agglomeration, intra-industry trade,and integration are brought out in the conclusion.     

The Nordic 'Cultural Industries': A Cross-National Assessment of the Place of the Cultural Industries in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

ABSTRACT In this paper an attempt is made to measure the cultural industries in a cross‐national context. The paper starts with a discussion of the definition and delineation of the term the ‘cultural industries’. It is argued that a large range of goods and services may be considered to be cultural industry products and that it is important to place the production and exchange of such products in the context of an industrial systems approach. Following this the concept is operationalised using data on employment and firm activity from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Results are presented which suggest that overall growth in both employment and firm numbers has been especially strong in the cultural industries. However, interesting differences between the countries emerged from the data. Thus regional dimensions are then examined resulting in the finding that in all four countries cultural industries have a strong attraction to urban areas but an even stronger propensity to agglomerate. It is suggested that the spatial dynamics observed may be key to the development of the industries' competencies and success. In summary the paper presents results of extensive data analysis that show the cultural industries' important contribution to Scandinavian economies and labour markets.     

TESTING FOR CAUSALITY BETWEEN PRODUCTIVITY AND AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES

ABSTRACT The productivity effects of agglomeration economies are often treated as endogenous in empirical work due to the potential for reverse causality. The extent to which these relationships are actually simultaneously determined, however, remains largely unobserved. This paper estimates panel data vector autoregressions for different sectors of the economy to test for bidirectional causality between productivity and both localization and urbanization economies. The aim is to address some key questions that will help to identify the extent of the endogeneity problem. Can we actually observe bidirectionality in the data? Does it feature more for some industries than for others? Is it more prevalent for localization or urbanization economies? The results show that agglomeration economies are not strictly unidirectional and that higher levels of productivity can induce growth in the scale of local urban and industrial environments. The paper discusses the difficulties that these issues pose for the estimation of agglomeration economies.     

RESIDENTIAL PATTERNS OF NEW IMMIGRANTS AND LINGUISTIC INTEGRATION

The present study looks at the residential patterns of new immigrants in Montreal and their impact on subsequent language use in the workplace and educational programs. We first explore the themes of language and territory, citing evidence for the neighbourhood of residence as being a site of language contact organized linguistically around models corresponding to the majority language spoken by its population. Secondly, we explore a sample of 1000 new immigrants, situating them in francophone, anglophone, allophone, and heterogeneous neighbourhoods. Three aspects of their residential establishment are examined: their distribution within the neighbourhoods of Montreal, the factors determining the choice of one or another of the four types of linguistic milieux, and the influence of these milieux on subsequent language use. These latter two aspects use Event History Analysis, a statistical model permitting the longitudinal analysis of dated data.     

THE MONEY THAT GROWS ON TREES

From a paean of praise to the innovator : When you first brought these trees and told us we should grow them, we scoffed at you and said ‘We have plenty of trees already; what use are these new ones?’ But now we see we were wrong: money grows on those trees. On the indivisibility of systems : No one part of the model-system is more important than any other part. We may consider each model as a vital link in a communications system. We may identify feedback effects. Every change in technology or change in aspiration levels will lead to a re-appraisal of the environment. Every movement of knowledge over space will need to be checked against environment and environment itself will change as a result of the decisions made. Changes in social structure may lead to changes in organizational behaviour and so on.     

Between Medieval Continuities and Early Modern Change: Proto-industrialization and Consumption in the Southern Low Countries (1300–1800)

Abstract

This essay discusses two interrelated questions about historical change: in what sense did early modern industries differ from their medieval predecessors; and which elements explain the diverging historical dynamics of European proto-industrial regions? Also considered is the issue of how and why some regions succeeded in selling their products in growing markets, while others apparently failed. This essay also assesses four aspects which have influenced regional success or failure, and which at the same time differentiated seventeenth- and eighteenth-century production and consumption from the late medieval world: the new role of the state, the world economy, rural consumption, and the challenge of fashion. It examines the main changes occurring in these fields between roughly 1650 and 1800, distinguishing between different phases of development for different regions and arguing that some of the success or the failure of a region, and thus their developmental capacities, lay in the interaction with these four fields. Textile industries serve as case studies, with a focus on the Southern Netherlands and comparisons from France, the Dutch Republic, Germany and England.     

人文地理学研究中对空间的再认识

作为人文地理学的核心概念,空间在全球化、信息化、人文主义、后现代主义、地理学社会与文化转向等语境下需要重新认识。首先对空间认知转变的背景进行阐释,在此基础上重点辨析国内外研究成果中对于"空间"的核心论述,把对空间的认知转变归结为4点:(1)从科学的空间到人性的空间;(2)从物质的空间到非物质的空间;(3)单纯的空间到复杂的空间;(4)从"外壳"的空间到空间里面的空间。最后提出对我国当前人文地理学研究的3点启示:(1)注重学科基础概念的重新认识;(2)重视微观层面的细化研究;(3)加强跨学科的整合研究。     

Wildlife Visual Imagery: Do Pictures Used to Promote Destinations Online Match On‐site Species Visibility at Two Geographic Destinations?

Diverse photographic images (pictures) are used to promote wildlife tours on the Internet. But what pictures are used and are they likely to accurately reflect what visitors might see, and hence create realistic expectations for tourists? The relative importance of wildlife and the prevalence of iconic species were assessed for pictures on the Internet used by six English tour companies offering wildlife tours to very different destinations: Southern Africa and Australia. These were then compared with the likely visibility of wildlife at the destination. The content of 926 Southern African pictures representing 1316 different subjects, and 228 pictures representing 307 different subjects from Australia were classified into four themes (wildlife, landscapes/vegetation, activities, accommodation). Wildlife, particularly large mammals, was more frequently used for Southern African tours (43%) whereas pictures for Australian tours were often of landscapes (45%). Large, social mammals active during the day and hence highly visible (e.g. elephant, n= 64) were often used, while iconic, but cryptic, species such as koalas (n= 7), Tasmanian devil (n= 1), leopards (n= 12), and black rhinos (n= 2) were seldom used. Therefore, online pictures used for wildlife tours appear to merge well with what tourists are likely to see at the destination, but appear to diverge somewhat from established destination images for these two regions, particularly Australia.     

‘They shut them out the road’: Migration,mental health and the Scottish highlands

There is a small literature tackling migration and mental health, but less is said about the migration of people with mental health problems (incipient or diagnosed). The present paper considers what might be claimed about such migration, particularly when entailing movement into rural and remote areas where lack of anonymity, high social visibility and certain differences in how ‘locals’ and ‘incomers’ are treated may have serious consequences for those displaying psychological and behavioural differences. Drawing upon qualitative evidence from in‐depth interviewing of in‐migrants with mental health problems living in the Scottish Highlands, light is thrown on the connections between their problems and the decision to relocate to this predominantly rural region. Attention also focuses on dissonances between expectations regarding their new situation and their actual experiences of it in terms of both natural landscapes and, more importantly here, social milieux. There are further implications for changing regional attitudes towards mental health, suggesting certain impacts that arise not just from the in‐migration of people themselves who have mental health problems, but also from the ideas and practices that they often carry with them.     

The Creative Industries,Creative Occupations and Innovation in London

London is a global hub of the creative industries. These industries are seen as both innovative in themselves and an input in innovation processes in other sectors. Yet few studies have tested these relationships. This article investigates these issues using large-scale survey data for London. Using four measures of product and process innovation, we find no evidence that London's creative industries are more innovative than other sectors. Yet, individuals doing creative occupations in other sectors are a robust driver of product innovation in London's firms. The results suggest that occupations performed in London may be an important driver of product innovation in the city, and firms in other sectors may use creative occupations to develop new products in the capital. This finding is supportive of policies attempting to stimulate the creative industries by integrating creative occupations into firms across the whole economy.     

The Politics of Party Leader Survival and Succession: Australia in Comparative Perspective

The processes of replacement of party leaders are well-published events in media outlets across the world's democracies, but are scarcely analysed by political scientists. In this article we examine the extent to which incumbent party leaders are able to control their own fate in the face of various types of challenges that herald a possible end to their rule. It discusses three related research questions derived from this main objective: (1) what makes incumbents quit? (2) How do incumbents respond to various types of triggers heralding a possible end to their rule? (3) To what extent does incumbent behaviour prior to and following succession affect the fortunes of their successors and their party? We draw on a four-country–eight-party data set of leadership successions between 1945 and 2005, and on findings of in-depth studies of Australian cases to show that not only do Australian leaders get challenged and replaced more frequently than do other leaders, but they are also forced to combat more internal rivalry than their counterparts elsewhere.     

EMPIRICAL STUDIES IN INDUSTRIAL LOCATION: AN ASSESSMENT OF THEIR METHODS AND RESULTS*

ABSTRACT This paper surveys recent evidence on the determinants of (national and/or foreign) industrial location. We find that the basic analytical framework has remained essentially unaltered since the early contributions of the early 1980s while, in contrast, there have been advances in the quality of the data (more firm and plant level information, geographical disaggregation, panel structure, etc.) and, to a lesser extent, the econometric modeling. We also identify certain determinants (neoclassical and institutional factors) that tend to provide largely consistent results across the reviewed studies. In light of this evidence, we finally suggest future lines of research.     

Information Availability and Market Power in Export Competition: The Case of Regional Health Care Markets

In this paper I analyze the spatial-economic determinants of export competition. I develop a competing central place spatial interaction model to analyze the spatial availability of information, market power, distance, demand threshold, and interregional market variables. Model estimates are based on national data from The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care, and I examine Medicare health exports from the Seattle hospital market to markets throughout the Pacific Northwest. Information availability and market power for the Seattle export hospitals have a significant effect on export sales of hospital Medicare services. Intra and interregional competition with other major hospital markets are significant determinants of export competition. Distance to the Seattle market has a strong, negative effect on export sales and on patient migration from other markets.     

Market Potential,Productivity and Foreign Direct Investment: Some Evidence from Three Case Studies

This paper aims at analysing the importance of local determinants to foreign direct investment (FDI) in three European regional case studies. The originality of the approach lies in the use of disaggregated data by sector and by region. The results are three-fold. First, regional demand and productivity are fundamental FDI determinants, confirming most studies with national data. Second, regional FDI inflows are more dependent on regional than national determinants. Finally, the effect of market potential measured with absolute gross domestic product (GDP) on regional FDI diminishes linearly with distance and does not when measured with GDP per capita.     

The second Prodi government and Italian foreign policy: New and improved or the same wrapped up differently?

This article examines whether Italian foreign policy has undergone significant and substantial changes under the second Prodi government. The first part identifies the variables affecting continuity and change in a country's foreign policy and addresses the question of the conditions under which one can expect changes as a result of a change in government, and the conditions under which continuity is instead more likely. The second part looks at the second Prodi government's foreign policy on a number of topical issues, most of which were also faced by the Berlusconi government, to see to what extent the Prodi government's approach to foreign policy indeed changed from that of its predecessor. The article concludes that the Prodi government did not change Italian foreign policy in any substantial manner; differences existed only in the way the new government occasionally chose to present and justify its policies publicly.     

国内外犯罪地理学研究进展评析

国外犯罪地理发展过程体现出内容体系不断完善、方法技术日益成熟、学科融合趋势明显三个显著特征。针对国外犯罪地理的具体内容,分别论述了犯罪制图的发展过程与犯罪热点辨识的方法演进,概括了国外犯罪地理领域影响最大的社会解组理论和日常活动理论的主要内容和发展现状,进而简要的评析了国外犯罪地理研究的发展趋势及不足。文章接着通过对所收集到的国内相关研究的总结,将我国犯罪地理学的发展归纳为理论初探、缓慢发展和微观转向三个阶段,并简述了每个阶段内主要的研究成果及发展特点。最后提出了进一步促进我国犯罪地理研究发展的几点建议。