“国民外交”背景下的中苏建交谈判（1923-1924）

1923-1924年间,苏联派出副外交人民委员加拉罕为中俄两国恢复邦交进行谈判,双方最终订立了《中俄解决悬案大纲协定》等处理两国外交关系的系列文件,正式恢复了外交关系。加拉罕提出的以“中国人民”为外交对象的举措虽不符合国际外交谈判的正常程序,但恰符合当时中国各界民众要求参与外交的心理,在不同程度上得到了从激进到保守的各类中国人士的应和,使本来处境艰难的北京政府不得不在一种非常特殊的氛围下进行外交谈判。要了解这一谈判的动态过程,就需要回到当时的报刊资料之中,重建那一特定历史时期中国社会形成的特殊政治氛围,并考察这一氛围对外交谈判的影响。     

《巴黎和会与北京政府的内外博弈》问世

正邓野著,社会科学文献出版社2014年9月出版,29万字,38元邓野著《巴黎和会与北京政府的内外博弈》一书,重点探讨了巴黎和会时期中国的外交交涉与政派利益分歧,强调巴黎和会对于北京政府而言,不再仅仅是一个纯粹的外交意义上的国际会议。在南北分裂、派系林立的当时中国社会条件下,外交与内政更是纠缠不清,相互影响。如当年强烈抵制对德宣战的广东非常国会,却在第一次世界大战后"理直气壮"地要求向巴黎派遣自己的外交代表,争享"战胜"之荣耀。作     

1918年在华德侨处置案引发的中外交涉

1918年北京政府和以英法为代表的协约国盟友之间,曾围绕如何处置在华德侨这个看似无关紧要的问题展开过一场外交交涉。交涉双方的行为乍看之下虽不合情理,但又是合乎逻辑的。英法等国对北京政府一再施压要求严厉处置在华德侨,与其说是为了预防敌侨捣乱,毋宁说是为了牵制北京政府;而北京政府即便是参战以后对德侨也不改宽松友善的政策,与当时中国各界对德情感氛围相匹配,其做法完全符合国际法,体现了中国近代外交理念的进步。发生在1918年的这场交涉宛如一面镜子,折射出一战期间北京政府与协约国盟友之间关系的实质。     

1924年《中俄协定》与中俄旧约废止问题--以《密件议定书》为中心的探讨

1917年俄国革命后,两次发表对华宣言,自愿废除不平等旧约,平等对待中国。北京政府虽不愿立即承认苏联,但乘机清理旧俄在华条约特权。中苏谈判时,苏方坚持无条件建交后,再开会议订定新约取代旧约,北京政府则担心中俄会议不一定会有结果,坚持要立即废止旧约。最后双方妥协,在1924年《中俄协定》中,以《密件议定书》规定:新约未订定前,旧约概不施行。后来中俄会议虽经召开,但未获致具体成果,使得中俄旧约处于虽未废止,但不施行的含混状态。北京政府在移交俄国使馆及其他有关交涉中,均坚持中俄旧约已废,并持续推动其“修约外交”。     

川岛真著《中国近代外交的形成》

川岛　真 :《中国近代外交の形成》行所 :财法人　名古屋大学出版会 ,2 0 0 4年 2月初版 ,661页《中国近代外交的形成》是北海道大学助教授川岛真在其博士学位论文《中华民国前期外交研究》的基础上扩展、深入后完成的专著。作者是日本学界较全面研究北洋外交的学者。该书聚焦于民国前期 1 91 2年到 1 92 6年间 ,通过对大量已刊和未刊外交档案的阅读 ,讨论北京政府及其外交官员所制定的一系列外交制度和外交政策 ,并解读其时代意义 ,是一部史料翔实、论述严谨、视野宽广的外交史著作。该书在绪论中指出了中国近代外交研究的重要性、争议…     

1919年中英关于西藏问题的交涉

1919年中英就西藏问题进行了交涉。北京政府提出解决西藏问题的新建议。英国希望迅速解决西藏问题 ,交涉时在西藏与中国内地分界线问题上表现出灵活的立场 ,但北京政府突然中断谈判使其感觉受到了愚弄 ,并在外交上对中国进行了报复。日本干预西藏问题的谈判 ,遭到英国的强烈反对。北京政府采取“拖延”谈判的策略 ,对英交涉的立场也越来越强硬 ,最终挫败了英国迅速解决西藏问题、侵犯中国主权的图谋。     

一战爆发后中国的中立问题——以日本对德宣战前为主的考察

一战爆发后,北京政府虽抱定了中立的态度,但在何时宣布中立问题上有其自身的考虑。在宣布中立前,外交部希望能得到美国的外交支持和日本自身中立的保证,但内外形势并未给外交斡旋留出更多的时间。在未能达到最佳的外交局势下,北京政府于8月6日宣布中立。某种程度上,中国的中立主要为了防日。宣布中立后,北京政府即从内政和外交两个方面着手维护中国的中立地位。内政上,申令各地严格遵守中立条规;外交上则寻找途径防止日本侵占山东:或者宣战,或者直接收回青岛。迫于现实原因,宣战的可能性此时尚不存在;收回青岛之议,也不为英、美、日等国所接受。对北京政府而言,在各种外交努力无效后,等来了日本对德宣战的消息。     

北京政府的修约与废约及其评价——以顾维钧为主的考察

北京政府一直被人们评价为执行媚外政策的政府,但是北京政府在以顾维钧为代表的近代职业外交官主持外交部的情况下,利用他们学到的国际法的有关知识,为改善中国的国际地位而努力。北京政府的修约与废约与顾维钧、王正廷等的外交活动贯穿始终,北京政府的外交活动取得了一定的成效,并且成为开启中国近代修约外交的第一个政府。     

王广圻早期外交经历自述稿

王广圻系民国北京政府时期外交人物,长期追随陆征祥从事外交活动.兹特从馆藏外交档案中辑选王广圻调任驻荷公使后有关其以荷兰公使馆随员身份出席1907年海牙第二次和平会议的自述手稿,以飨读者.     

中日关于济案的交涉及其“解决”

济南惨案发生后 ,国民政府迫使日本将济案转入外交交涉 ,中日两国先后在南京、上海进行了近十次谈判 ,最终在秘密谈判中达成了“解决”的协议。中方以诸多的保证措施、甚至以承认北京政府时期日本在山东的权益和不平等条约为条件 ,换取了日本的撤兵 ,济案本质上并未“解决”。国民政府在济案交涉中的妥协 ,使其“革命外交”黯然失色 ,从一定意义上说 ,九一八以后的对日政策 ,实即肇端于济案交涉。     

北洋政府时期社会舆论中的外交系

巴黎和会与华盛顿会议以后,王正廷、顾维钧、王宠惠等人纷纷回国入主北京内阁,而且一度左右北京政坛.时论对他们参与内政的评价褒贬不一,而党派之争又使他们的身份复杂化,要客观地评价他们,既要注意其自身的因素,也要兼顾到当时的社会舆论.     

浅析日本的公共外交及其局限

二战后,由于日本政治、军事外交的开展受到诸多因素的制约,公共外交就成为日本摆脱美军占领体制、发展与邻国关系以及谋求政治大国地位的重要途径。通过人员及文化的相互交流、加强对外宣传、推行外向型的文化教育、经济与文化援助以及动漫外交等手段,日本的公共外交取得了很大的成就。但受自身独特政治文化及国内右倾化思潮的影响,加之其受日美基轴及相关政策的掣肘,日本战后以来的公共外交并没有达到预期的效果。     

Public opinion,the press and the failed Anglo-Franco-Soviet negotiations of 1939

For nearly 80 years, historians have debated whether the western powers or the USSR should be blamed for the failure of the Anglo-Franco-Soviet negotiations in 1939. This rather tired debate features here, but only in the background. Instead, these negotiations provide a case study for exploring the interface between the press, public opinion, and foreign policymaking, identifying an example of how policymakers’ perceptions of popular opinion wielded a tangible impact on diplomacy. The article will show that, from late April through to early June 1939, British and French public opinion, as mediated by the press, demanded a ‘Grand Alliance’. The popular pressure needed to facilitate a Soviet alliance was in place, and, combined with broader diplomatic and strategic imperatives, nearly delivered one. Perceptions of public opinion also help explain why this alliance remained elusive. Emboldened by their own readings of western newspapers, the USSR increased their demands, confident that domestic pressures would compel London and Paris to yield. But this was a fatal miscalculation. From mid-June, Western opinion turned against Moscow, and familiar anti-Soviet tropes resurfaced. By charting this evolution in public sentiment, this article provides a fresh perspective on the factors contributing to the failure of these negotiations.     

Public opinion and policy responsiveness: the case of same-sex marriage in Australia

This article examines congruence between public opinion and politicians’ positions on same-sex marriage in the Australian House of Representatives from 2012 to 2016. In contrast median voter theorem and other office-motivated frameworks, Australian federal politicians have largely ignored majority opinion, which has been supportive of same-sex marriage for a decade. Using a unique dataset (n?=?601,550) of voter preferences collected during the 2013 federal election, and collated Hansard and media data, we compare public opinion on same-sex marriage with politicians’ public positions. We find a status quo bias, suggesting the influence of special interest groups in this policy area. Yet, we also find parliamentarians are responsive to public opinion once it reaches a critical level, and that very low opposition to same-sex marriage in an electorate predicts policy support from its MP, which varies by party and over time.     

The Canada-US Relationship: An Updated Evaluation of Public Opinion

ABSTRACT

Despite the political turbulence of the Trump-Trudeau era, the US-Canada relationship remains workable on many policy fronts. Against this backdrop, this article explores this relationship by first focusing on public opinion toward “the other,” including general sentiments as well as political leadership specifically, before turning to public opinion in specific policy fields, such as bilateral trade, security, energy, and diplomacy. We broadly find that Canadians are more likely than Americans to draw distinctions between Canada and the US and view the relationship in more cautious terms. By contrast, opinion in the US appears to be much more positive about the relationship.     

Australia’s use of international education as public diplomacy in China: foreign policy or domestic agenda?

This research utilises expert interviews to investigate why the Australian Government funds the New Colombo Plan (NCP) and the Australian Studies Centres (ASCs) as public diplomacy in China. The ASCs have grown with no increase in funding, however, the academics view themselves as facilitators of Australian Studies not an arm of public diplomacy, despite their work contributing toward positive Australia-China relations. Evaluating the efficacy of the ASC’s contribution to public diplomacy is fraught with risk. Some suggest that political activism may backfire when governments explicitly outline their soft power strategies. As the NCP has no longitudinal measurements, this research is an initial review of short-term achievements. However, the external survey with 16% return rate, and just over 50% response rate indicating an intention to act as ambassadors for the program, requires review by the funding department. The opportunity for the Government to send a positive message to China and the strong people-to-people networks fostered by the two programs’ participants have the potential to influence the nexus between Australian foreign policy, international education as public diplomacy and public engagement with foreign policy. This alone, should be sufficient to justify continued funding, or in the case of the ASCs, increased funding.     

Mapping US Public Diplomacy in the 21st Century

This article tracks how the US is adapting its public diplomacy architecture to suit the needs of the information age. The areas of public diplomacy used to influence foreign target audiences are media diplomacy, public information, internal broadcasting, education and cultural programs, and political action. The agencies involved are the State Department, the International Broadcasting Bureau and the National Endowment for Democracy. Key features are the use being made of the Internet as a major tool for information dissemination and interactive communication between US public diplomacy practitioners and their target publics and the 'deep coalitions' being fostered with civil society actors to shape the norms and values of the post Cold War. This strategy is described by Arquilla and Ronfeldt as 'noopolitik' as opposed to state-centred realpolitik. Noopolitik emphasises the shaping and sharing of ideas, values, norms, laws, and ethics though soft power and is recognised by its authors as being very similar to the academic school of constructivism.     

Positive Returns and Equilibrium: Simultaneous Feedback Between Public Opinion and Social Policy

This paper pushes forward political research from across disciplines seeking to understand the linkages between public opinion and social policy in democracies. It considers the thermostatic and the increasing returns perspectives as pointing toward a potentially stable set of effects running between opinion and policy. Both theoretical perspectives argue that opinion and policy are reciprocally causal, feeding back on one another. This is a general argument found in opinion‐policy literatures. However, much empirical research claims to model “feedback” effects when actually using separate unidirectional models of opinion and policy. Only a small body of research addresses opinion‐policy endogeneity directly. In this paper I consider an opinion‐policy system with simultaneous feedback and without lags. I argue that there is a theoretical equilibrium in the relationship of opinion and policy underlying the otherwise cyclical processes that link them. Given that available cross‐national data are cross‐sectional and provide limited degrees of freedom, an ideal theoretical model must be somewhat constrained in order to arrive at empirically meaningful results. In this challenging and exploratory undertaking I hope to open up the possibility of a general system of effects between public opinion and social policy and how to model them in future research. I focus on social welfare policy as it is highly salient to public interests and a costly area of government budgets, making it an area of contentious policymaking. Social policy is also a major part of the thermostatic model of opinion and policy, which was recently extended to the cross‐national comparative context (Wlezien & Soroka, 2012) providing a critical predecessor to this paper because identification of equilibrium between public opinion and social policy in any given society is greatly enhanced through comparison with other societies. This counterfactual approach helps to identify opinion‐policy patterns that may not change much within societies, but can be seen as taking on discrete trajectories between societies.     

Partisan Identification and Attitudes to Big Versus Small Government in Australia: Evidence from the ISSP

In Australian politics, Labor has traditionally been thought of as the party of big government and the Liberals the party of small government. Drawing from evidence from the 1985, 1990, 1996 and 2007 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) Role of Government surveys, this article examines public opinion in relation to the role of government and how public attitudes towards government differ according to party identification. It is reasonable to expect that Labor Party identifiers would be more supportive of big government, but there is little empirical evidence to support this expectation. This article shows that citizens' attitudes still accord with the Labor–Liberal/big–small government dichotomy and shows partisan identification to have an enduring effect on attitudes towards the role of government, net of other factors.     

执政府与沪案交涉的失败

沪案交涉是由执政府担当的,但执政府为延长其政治生命,只知利用五卅运动中的"民气"以对内,并没有真正谋划沪案交涉,导致交涉主张不统一,交涉策略不明朗,交涉步骤不一致;同时,各外交官员在开展外交时也进行"内争",相互推诿卸责,导致沪案交涉延宕;江苏地方官员和各派军阀也以外交之名,与中央一起争夺上海地盘;此外,沪案发生时,上海无军政大员负责的现状也影响到了沪案交涉的开局.这些才是沪案交涉无功而终的主要原因.